add market-regime guard (SPY trend) — inform + warn

New market_regime_service computes a benchmark (SPY) trend from its 50/200-day
SMAs, cached in a SystemSetting and refreshed by a nightly job; GET /market/regime
exposes it. Dashboard shows a regime banner; setup cards flag a counter-trend
caution when a setup fights the regime (LONG in a bearish market / SHORT in a
bullish one). Informational only — nothing is suppressed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

frontend/src/api/market.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+import apiClient from './client';
+import type { MarketRegime } from '../lib/types';
+
+export function getMarketRegime() {
+  return apiClient.get<MarketRegime>('market/regime').then((r) => r.data);
+}

frontend/src/components/ticker/RecommendationPanel.tsx

@@ -3,6 +3,9 @@ import { formatPrice, formatPercent } from '../../lib/format';
 import { recommendationActionDirection, recommendationActionLabel } from '../../lib/recommendation';
 import { useRiskSettings, type RiskSettings } from '../../hooks/useRiskSettings';
 import { positionSize } from '../../lib/position';
+import { useMarketRegime } from '../../hooks/useMarketRegime';
+import { isCounterTrend } from '../../lib/regime';
+import type { MarketRegime } from '../../lib/types';
 
 interface RecommendationPanelProps {
   symbol: string;
@@ -85,7 +88,7 @@ function TargetTable({ setup }: { setup: TradeSetup }) {
   );
 }
 
-function SetupCard({ setup, action, currentPrice, risk }: { setup?: TradeSetup; action?: TradeSetup['recommended_action']; currentPrice?: number; risk: RiskSettings }) {
+function SetupCard({ setup, action, currentPrice, risk, regime }: { setup?: TradeSetup; action?: TradeSetup['recommended_action']; currentPrice?: number; risk: RiskSettings; regime?: MarketRegime }) {
   if (!setup) {
     return (
       <div className="glass-sm p-4 text-xs text-gray-500">
@@ -97,6 +100,7 @@ function SetupCard({ setup, action, currentPrice, risk }: { setup?: TradeSetup;
   const recommended = isRecommended(setup, action);
   const drift = entryDrift(setup, currentPrice);
   const sizing = positionSize(risk.accountSize, risk.riskPct, setup.entry_price, setup.stop_loss);
+  const counterTrend = regime ? isCounterTrend(setup.direction, regime.label) : false;
 
   return (
     <div
@@ -114,6 +118,13 @@ function SetupCard({ setup, action, currentPrice, risk }: { setup?: TradeSetup;
         <p className="text-[11px] text-amber-400">Alternative setup (ticker bias currently favors the opposite direction).</p>
       )}
 
+      {counterTrend && regime && (
+        <p className="text-[11px] text-amber-400">
+          ⚠ Counter-trend: {setup.direction.toUpperCase()} against a {regime.label} market
+          ({regime.benchmark ?? 'SPY'}). Lower odds — size down or wait for confirmation.
+        </p>
+      )}
+
       {drift && drift.status === 'invalidated' && (
         <p className="text-[11px] text-red-400">
           ⚠ Price ({formatPrice(currentPrice!)}) is past the stop — this setup is invalidated.
@@ -206,6 +217,7 @@ function RiskSettingsBar({ risk, update }: { risk: RiskSettings; update: (p: Par
 
 export function RecommendationPanel({ symbol, longSetup, shortSetup, currentPrice }: RecommendationPanelProps) {
   const { settings: risk, update: updateRisk } = useRiskSettings();
+  const regime = useMarketRegime().data;
   const summary = longSetup?.recommendation_summary ?? shortSetup?.recommendation_summary;
   const action = (summary?.action ?? 'NEUTRAL') as TradeSetup['recommended_action'];
   const preferredDirection = recommendationActionDirection(action);
@@ -251,7 +263,7 @@ export function RecommendationPanel({ symbol, longSetup, shortSetup, currentPric
 
         {preferredDirection !== 'neutral' && preferredSetup ? (
           <div className="space-y-3">
-            <SetupCard setup={preferredSetup} action={action} currentPrice={currentPrice} risk={risk} />
+            <SetupCard setup={preferredSetup} action={action} currentPrice={currentPrice} risk={risk} regime={regime} />
 
             {alternativeSetup && (
               <details className="glass-sm p-3">
@@ -259,15 +271,15 @@ export function RecommendationPanel({ symbol, longSetup, shortSetup, currentPric
                   Alternative scenario ({alternativeSetup.direction.toUpperCase()})
                 </summary>
                 <div className="mt-3">
-                  <SetupCard setup={alternativeSetup} action={action} currentPrice={currentPrice} risk={risk} />
+                  <SetupCard setup={alternativeSetup} action={action} currentPrice={currentPrice} risk={risk} regime={regime} />
                 </div>
               </details>
             )}
           </div>
         ) : (
           <div className="grid gap-4 lg:grid-cols-2">
-            <SetupCard setup={longSetup} action={action} currentPrice={currentPrice} risk={risk} />
-            <SetupCard setup={shortSetup} action={action} currentPrice={currentPrice} risk={risk} />
+            <SetupCard setup={longSetup} action={action} currentPrice={currentPrice} risk={risk} regime={regime} />
+            <SetupCard setup={shortSetup} action={action} currentPrice={currentPrice} risk={risk} regime={regime} />
           </div>
         )}
       </div>

frontend/src/hooks/useMarketRegime.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
+import { useQuery } from '@tanstack/react-query';
+import * as marketApi from '../api/market';
+
+export function useMarketRegime() {
+  return useQuery({
+    queryKey: ['market-regime'],
+    queryFn: () => marketApi.getMarketRegime(),
+    staleTime: 60_000,
+  });
+}

frontend/src/lib/regime.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+import type { MarketRegime } from './types';
+
+export function regimeColor(label: MarketRegime['label']): string {
+  switch (label) {
+    case 'bullish':
+      return 'text-emerald-400';
+    case 'bearish':
+      return 'text-red-400';
+    case 'neutral':
+      return 'text-amber-400';
+    default:
+      return 'text-gray-400';
+  }
+}
+
+export function regimeDot(label: MarketRegime['label']): string {
+  switch (label) {
+    case 'bullish':
+      return 'bg-emerald-400';
+    case 'bearish':
+      return 'bg-red-400';
+    case 'neutral':
+      return 'bg-amber-400';
+    default:
+      return 'bg-gray-600';
+  }
+}
+
+export function regimeHeadline(r: MarketRegime): string {
+  const b = r.benchmark ?? 'SPY';
+  if (r.label === 'unknown') return `${b} trend unknown`;
+  const pct =
+    r.pct_above_200 != null
+      ? ` · ${r.pct_above_200 >= 0 ? '+' : ''}${r.pct_above_200.toFixed(1)}% vs 200-day`
+      : '';
+  return `${b} ${r.label}${pct}`;
+}
+
+/** Whether a setup direction fights the prevailing market regime. */
+export function isCounterTrend(direction: string, label: MarketRegime['label']): boolean {
+  if (label === 'bullish') return direction === 'short';
+  if (label === 'bearish') return direction === 'long';
+  return false;
+}

frontend/src/lib/types.ts

@@ -179,6 +179,17 @@ export interface SentimentProviderConfig {
   custom_base_url_providers: string[];
 }
 
+export interface MarketRegime {
+  label: 'bullish' | 'bearish' | 'neutral' | 'unknown';
+  benchmark?: string;
+  price?: number | null;
+  sma50?: number | null;
+  sma200?: number | null;
+  pct_above_200?: number | null;
+  reason?: string | null;
+  computed_at?: string;
+}
+
 export interface AlertConfig {
   enabled: boolean;
   telegram_chat_id: string;

frontend/src/pages/DashboardPage.tsx

@@ -4,6 +4,8 @@ import { useActivation } from '../hooks/useActivation';
 import { useTrades } from '../hooks/useTrades';
 import { useWatchlist } from '../hooks/useWatchlist';
 import { usePerformance } from '../hooks/usePerformance';
+import { useMarketRegime } from '../hooks/useMarketRegime';
+import { regimeColor, regimeDot, regimeHeadline } from '../lib/regime';
 import { Callout } from '../components/ui/Callout';
 import { Section } from '../components/ui/Section';
 import { SkeletonCard, SkeletonTable } from '../components/ui/Skeleton';
@@ -55,6 +57,7 @@ export default function DashboardPage() {
   const watchlist = useWatchlist();
   const activation = useActivation();
   const performance = usePerformance();
+  const regime = useMarketRegime();
 
   const qualifiedSetups = useMemo(
     () =>
@@ -98,6 +101,23 @@ export default function DashboardPage() {
         </h1>
       </div>
 
+      {/* Market regime banner */}
+      {regime.data && (
+        <div className="glass-sm flex items-center gap-2.5 px-4 py-2.5">
+          <span className={`inline-block h-2 w-2 rounded-full ${regimeDot(regime.data.label)}`} />
+          <span className="text-sm text-gray-400">Market regime:</span>
+          <span className={`text-sm font-semibold ${regimeColor(regime.data.label)}`}>
+            {regimeHeadline(regime.data)}
+          </span>
+          {regime.data.label === 'bearish' && (
+            <span className="text-xs text-gray-500">— be cautious on new longs</span>
+          )}
+          {regime.data.label === 'bullish' && (
+            <span className="text-xs text-gray-500">— shorts are counter-trend</span>
+          )}
+        </div>
+      )}
+
       {/* Metric strip */}
       {(trades.isLoading || performance.isLoading) ? (
         <div className="grid gap-4 sm:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-4">