redesign activation gate to expected value + make pipelines cron-configurable
Diagnosing "no qualified signals for 5 days": setups were generated but none qualified. The gate required BOTH a high min_rr (2.0) AND a high min_target_probability (60), which became contradictory after the Jun-15 probability recalibration — probability already embeds R:R via the 1/(rr+1) ruin term, so high-R:R targets are inherently low-probability and nothing cleared both. Gate is now expected value (R): p*rr - (1-p) from the primary target's probability. R:R and confidence stay as floors; high-conviction / exclude-conflicts / min-target-probability become optional tighteners (default off). Defaults: min_expected_value=0.15, min_rr=1.2, min_confidence=55. EV is only enforced when computable. Migration 009 clears stored activation_* rows so the new defaults apply. Backtest sweeps min_expected_value instead of target probability. Scheduling: pipelines are now cron-configurable in Admin -> Jobs. daily_pipeline (full, default 0 7 * * *) plus a new light intraday_pipeline (OHLCV + outcome eval, default hourly US session) that keeps prices/live-R:R current without setup churn. Fundamentals on its own early weekly cron. Timezone configurable (default Europe/Berlin). Moving interval->CronTrigger also fixes the restart-deferral bug where an interval job's countdown resets on every process restart. 319 backend unit tests pass; frontend tsc clean. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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@@ -113,8 +113,8 @@ async def test_run_backtest_smoke(session):
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# the oscillating series should yield at least some resolved setups
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assert report["candidates"] >= 1
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# sweep: lowering the threshold can only add qualifiers, never remove them
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sweep = sorted(report["sweep"], key=lambda r: r["min_target_probability"], reverse=True)
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# sweep: lowering the EV threshold can only add qualifiers, never remove them
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sweep = sorted(report["sweep"], key=lambda r: r["min_expected_value"], reverse=True)
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counts = [r["total"] for r in sweep]
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assert counts == sorted(counts) # ascending as threshold descends
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# every calibration row is internally consistent
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