redesign activation gate to expected value + make pipelines cron-configurable

Diagnosing "no qualified signals for 5 days": setups were generated but none
qualified. The gate required BOTH a high min_rr (2.0) AND a high
min_target_probability (60), which became contradictory after the Jun-15
probability recalibration — probability already embeds R:R via the 1/(rr+1) ruin
term, so high-R:R targets are inherently low-probability and nothing cleared both.

Gate is now expected value (R): p*rr - (1-p) from the primary target's
probability. R:R and confidence stay as floors; high-conviction / exclude-conflicts
/ min-target-probability become optional tighteners (default off). Defaults:
min_expected_value=0.15, min_rr=1.2, min_confidence=55. EV is only enforced when
computable. Migration 009 clears stored activation_* rows so the new defaults
apply. Backtest sweeps min_expected_value instead of target probability.

Scheduling: pipelines are now cron-configurable in Admin -> Jobs. daily_pipeline
(full, default 0 7 * * *) plus a new light intraday_pipeline (OHLCV + outcome eval,
default hourly US session) that keeps prices/live-R:R current without setup churn.
Fundamentals on its own early weekly cron. Timezone configurable (default
Europe/Berlin). Moving interval->CronTrigger also fixes the restart-deferral bug
where an interval job's countdown resets on every process restart.

319 backend unit tests pass; frontend tsc clean.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

tests/unit/test_activation_settings.py

@@ -25,30 +25,35 @@ class TestActivationConfig:
     async def test_defaults_when_unset(self, session: AsyncSession):
         config = await get_activation_config(session)
         assert config == {
-            "min_rr": 2.0,
-            "min_confidence": 70.0,
-            "min_target_probability": 60.0,
-            "require_high_conviction": True,
-            "exclude_conflicts": True,
+            "min_expected_value": 0.15,
+            "min_rr": 1.2,
+            "min_confidence": 55.0,
+            "min_target_probability": 0.0,
+            "require_high_conviction": False,
+            "exclude_conflicts": False,
         }
 
     async def test_update_and_read_back(self, session: AsyncSession):
         updated = await update_activation_config(
-            session, {"min_rr": 1.5, "min_confidence": 60.0}
+            session, {"min_expected_value": 0.25, "min_confidence": 60.0}
         )
-        assert updated["min_rr"] == 1.5
+        assert updated["min_expected_value"] == 0.25
         assert updated["min_confidence"] == 60.0
 
         config = await get_activation_config(session)
-        assert config["min_rr"] == 1.5
+        assert config["min_expected_value"] == 0.25
         assert config["min_confidence"] == 60.0
 
     async def test_partial_update_keeps_other_value(self, session: AsyncSession):
         await update_activation_config(session, {"min_confidence": 80.0})
         config = await get_activation_config(session)
-        assert config["min_rr"] == 2.0  # default untouched
+        assert config["min_rr"] == 1.2  # default untouched
         assert config["min_confidence"] == 80.0
 
+    async def test_rejects_out_of_range_expected_value(self, session: AsyncSession):
+        with pytest.raises(ValidationError):
+            await update_activation_config(session, {"min_expected_value": 50.0})
+
     async def test_conviction_flags_round_trip(self, session: AsyncSession):
         await update_activation_config(
             session,