redesign activation gate to expected value + make pipelines cron-configurable

Diagnosing "no qualified signals for 5 days": setups were generated but none
qualified. The gate required BOTH a high min_rr (2.0) AND a high
min_target_probability (60), which became contradictory after the Jun-15
probability recalibration — probability already embeds R:R via the 1/(rr+1) ruin
term, so high-R:R targets are inherently low-probability and nothing cleared both.

Gate is now expected value (R): p*rr - (1-p) from the primary target's
probability. R:R and confidence stay as floors; high-conviction / exclude-conflicts
/ min-target-probability become optional tighteners (default off). Defaults:
min_expected_value=0.15, min_rr=1.2, min_confidence=55. EV is only enforced when
computable. Migration 009 clears stored activation_* rows so the new defaults
apply. Backtest sweeps min_expected_value instead of target probability.

Scheduling: pipelines are now cron-configurable in Admin -> Jobs. daily_pipeline
(full, default 0 7 * * *) plus a new light intraday_pipeline (OHLCV + outcome eval,
default hourly US session) that keeps prices/live-R:R current without setup churn.
Fundamentals on its own early weekly cron. Timezone configurable (default
Europe/Berlin). Moving interval->CronTrigger also fixes the restart-deferral bug
where an interval job's countdown resets on every process restart.

319 backend unit tests pass; frontend tsc clean.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

frontend/src/api/admin.ts

@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ import type {
   AlertTestResult,
   PipelineReadiness,
   RecommendationConfig,
+  ScheduleConfig,
   SentimentProviderConfig,
   SentimentTestResult,
   SystemSetting,
@@ -85,6 +86,18 @@ export function updateActivationSettings(payload: Partial<ActivationConfig>) {
     .then((r) => r.data);
 }
 
+export function getScheduleSettings() {
+  return apiClient
+    .get<ScheduleConfig>('admin/settings/schedule')
+    .then((r) => r.data);
+}
+
+export function updateScheduleSettings(payload: Partial<ScheduleConfig>) {
+  return apiClient
+    .put<ScheduleConfig>('admin/settings/schedule', payload)
+    .then((r) => r.data);
+}
+
 export function getSentimentSettings() {
   return apiClient
     .get<SentimentProviderConfig>('admin/settings/sentiment')

frontend/src/components/admin/ActivationSettings.tsx

@@ -4,11 +4,12 @@ import { useActivationSettings, useUpdateActivationSettings } from '../../hooks/
 import { SkeletonTable } from '../ui/Skeleton';
 
 const DEFAULTS: ActivationConfig = {
-  min_rr: 2,
-  min_confidence: 70,
-  min_target_probability: 60,
-  require_high_conviction: true,
-  exclude_conflicts: true,
+  min_expected_value: 0.15,
+  min_rr: 1.2,
+  min_confidence: 55,
+  min_target_probability: 0,
+  require_high_conviction: false,
+  exclude_conflicts: false,
 };
 
 export function ActivationSettings() {
@@ -39,13 +40,27 @@ export function ActivationSettings() {
         <h3 className="text-sm font-semibold text-gray-200">Activation Gate</h3>
         <p className="mt-1 text-xs text-gray-500">
           What counts as a signal worth acting on. Drives the Dashboard's "Qualified" metric, the
-          Signals "Qualified only" view, and the Track Record's qualified stats. All setups are
-          still evaluated regardless — tighten the gate, then watch qualified expectancy in the
-          Track Record to find what actually wins.
+          Signals "Qualified only" view, and the Track Record's qualified stats. The core test is
+          <span className="text-gray-300"> expected value</span> — probability-weighted asymmetry —
+          so R:R and target probability no longer fight each other. All setups are still evaluated
+          regardless; tune the EV floor against the Track Record's EV sweep to see what actually wins.
         </p>
       </div>
 
       <div className="grid gap-4 md:grid-cols-3">
+        <label className="block space-y-1">
+          <span className="text-xs text-gray-400">Min Expected Value (R)</span>
+          <input
+            type="number"
+            min={-1}
+            max={10}
+            step={0.05}
+            value={form.min_expected_value}
+            onChange={(e) => setForm((prev) => ({ ...prev, min_expected_value: Number(e.target.value) }))}
+            className="w-full input-glass px-3 py-2 text-sm"
+          />
+          <span className="text-[11px] text-gray-600">p·R:R − (1−p), in R. 0.15 ≈ +0.15× risk/trade. The core gate.</span>
+        </label>
         <label className="block space-y-1">
           <span className="text-xs text-gray-400">Min Risk:Reward (1 : x)</span>
           <input
@@ -56,7 +71,7 @@ export function ActivationSettings() {
             onChange={(e) => setForm((prev) => ({ ...prev, min_rr: Number(e.target.value) }))}
             className="w-full input-glass px-3 py-2 text-sm"
           />
-          <span className="text-[11px] text-gray-600">Set above your scanner floor or it does nothing.</span>
+          <span className="text-[11px] text-gray-600">Floor only — keeps symmetric/negative trades out.</span>
         </label>
         <label className="block space-y-1">
           <span className="text-xs text-gray-400">Min Confidence (%)</span>
@@ -70,50 +85,54 @@ export function ActivationSettings() {
             className="w-full input-glass px-3 py-2 text-sm"
           />
         </label>
-        <label className="block space-y-1">
-          <span className="text-xs text-gray-400">Min Target Probability (%)</span>
-          <input
-            type="number"
-            min={0}
-            max={100}
-            step={1}
-            value={form.min_target_probability}
-            onChange={(e) => setForm((prev) => ({ ...prev, min_target_probability: Number(e.target.value) }))}
-            className="w-full input-glass px-3 py-2 text-sm"
-          />
-          <span className="text-[11px] text-gray-600">Best target's probability must clear this. 0 disables.</span>
-        </label>
       </div>
 
-      <div className="grid gap-3 md:grid-cols-2">
-        <label className="flex cursor-pointer items-start gap-2.5 text-sm text-gray-300">
-          <input
-            type="checkbox"
-            checked={form.require_high_conviction}
-            onChange={(e) => setForm((prev) => ({ ...prev, require_high_conviction: e.target.checked }))}
-            className="mt-0.5 h-4 w-4 cursor-pointer accent-blue-400"
-          />
-          <span>
-            Require high conviction
-            <span className="mt-0.5 block text-[11px] text-gray-500">
-              Only LONG (High) / SHORT (High) — the signals must clearly pick a side.
+      <div className="border-t border-white/[0.06] pt-4">
+        <p className="text-xs font-medium uppercase tracking-widest text-gray-500">Optional tighteners</p>
+        <p className="mt-1 text-[11px] text-gray-600">Off by default — turn on to be more selective on top of the EV gate.</p>
+        <div className="mt-3 grid gap-3 md:grid-cols-3">
+          <label className="block space-y-1">
+            <span className="text-xs text-gray-400">Min Target Probability (%)</span>
+            <input
+              type="number"
+              min={0}
+              max={100}
+              step={1}
+              value={form.min_target_probability}
+              onChange={(e) => setForm((prev) => ({ ...prev, min_target_probability: Number(e.target.value) }))}
+              className="w-full input-glass px-3 py-2 text-sm"
+            />
+            <span className="text-[11px] text-gray-600">Best target's probability must clear this. 0 disables.</span>
+          </label>
+          <label className="flex cursor-pointer items-start gap-2.5 text-sm text-gray-300">
+            <input
+              type="checkbox"
+              checked={form.require_high_conviction}
+              onChange={(e) => setForm((prev) => ({ ...prev, require_high_conviction: e.target.checked }))}
+              className="mt-0.5 h-4 w-4 cursor-pointer accent-blue-400"
+            />
+            <span>
+              Require high conviction
+              <span className="mt-0.5 block text-[11px] text-gray-500">
+                Only LONG (High) / SHORT (High) — the signals must clearly pick a side.
+              </span>
             </span>
-          </span>
-        </label>
-        <label className="flex cursor-pointer items-start gap-2.5 text-sm text-gray-300">
-          <input
-            type="checkbox"
-            checked={form.exclude_conflicts}
-            onChange={(e) => setForm((prev) => ({ ...prev, exclude_conflicts: e.target.checked }))}
-            className="mt-0.5 h-4 w-4 cursor-pointer accent-blue-400"
-          />
-          <span>
-            Exclude conflicted setups
-            <span className="mt-0.5 block text-[11px] text-gray-500">
-              Risk level must be Low — drops setups with contradicting signals.
+          </label>
+          <label className="flex cursor-pointer items-start gap-2.5 text-sm text-gray-300">
+            <input
+              type="checkbox"
+              checked={form.exclude_conflicts}
+              onChange={(e) => setForm((prev) => ({ ...prev, exclude_conflicts: e.target.checked }))}
+              className="mt-0.5 h-4 w-4 cursor-pointer accent-blue-400"
+            />
+            <span>
+              Exclude conflicted setups
+              <span className="mt-0.5 block text-[11px] text-gray-500">
+                Risk level must be Low — drops setups with contradicting signals.
+              </span>
             </span>
-          </span>
-        </label>
+          </label>
+        </div>
       </div>
 
       <div className="flex items-center gap-2">

frontend/src/components/admin/JobControls.tsx

@@ -147,7 +147,7 @@ export function JobControls() {
                             : 'Inactive'}
                   </span>
                   {job.via_pipeline ? (
-                    <span className="text-[11px] text-gray-500">runs in daily pipeline</span>
+                    <span className="text-[11px] text-gray-500">runs via pipeline</span>
                   ) : (
                     job.enabled && job.next_run_at && (
                       <span className="text-[11px] text-gray-500">

frontend/src/components/admin/ScheduleSettings.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,100 @@
+import { useEffect, useState } from 'react';
+import type { ScheduleConfig } from '../../lib/types';
+import { useScheduleSettings, useUpdateScheduleSettings } from '../../hooks/useAdmin';
+import { SkeletonTable } from '../ui/Skeleton';
+
+const DEFAULTS: ScheduleConfig = {
+  schedule_timezone: 'Europe/Berlin',
+  schedule_daily_pipeline_cron: '0 7 * * *',
+  schedule_intraday_pipeline_cron: '0 14-22 * * 1-5',
+  schedule_fundamentals_cron: '0 4 * * 1',
+};
+
+const FIELDS: { key: keyof ScheduleConfig; label: string; hint: string; mono?: boolean }[] = [
+  {
+    key: 'schedule_timezone',
+    label: 'Timezone',
+    hint: 'IANA name, e.g. Europe/Berlin. All times below are in this zone.',
+  },
+  {
+    key: 'schedule_daily_pipeline_cron',
+    label: 'Daily pipeline (full)',
+    hint: 'OHLCV → sentiment → R:R scan → outcomes → regime. Default 07:00 so data is ready by 8.',
+    mono: true,
+  },
+  {
+    key: 'schedule_intraday_pipeline_cron',
+    label: 'Intraday pipeline (light)',
+    hint: 'Refresh prices + resolve outcomes. Default hourly across the US session, weekdays.',
+    mono: true,
+  },
+  {
+    key: 'schedule_fundamentals_cron',
+    label: 'Fundamentals (weekly)',
+    hint: 'Slow, rate-limited. Default early Monday so it finishes well before the day starts.',
+    mono: true,
+  },
+];
+
+export function ScheduleSettings() {
+  const { data, isLoading, isError, error } = useScheduleSettings();
+  const update = useUpdateScheduleSettings();
+
+  const [form, setForm] = useState<ScheduleConfig>(DEFAULTS);
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    if (data) setForm(data);
+  }, [data]);
+
+  if (isLoading) return <SkeletonTable rows={2} cols={2} />;
+  if (isError) return <p className="text-sm text-red-400">{(error as Error)?.message || 'Failed to load schedule'}</p>;
+
+  return (
+    <div className="glass p-5 space-y-4">
+      <div>
+        <h3 className="text-sm font-semibold text-gray-200">Pipeline Schedule</h3>
+        <p className="mt-1 text-xs text-gray-500">
+          When the jobs run, as 5-field cron (<span className="num">min hour day month weekday</span>).
+          Saved changes apply to the running scheduler immediately — no redeploy. The big nightly run
+          does the full refresh; the light intraday run just keeps prices current.
+        </p>
+      </div>
+
+      <div className="grid gap-4 md:grid-cols-2">
+        {FIELDS.map((f) => (
+          <label key={f.key} className="block space-y-1">
+            <span className="text-xs text-gray-400">{f.label}</span>
+            <input
+              type="text"
+              value={form[f.key]}
+              spellCheck={false}
+              onChange={(e) => setForm((prev) => ({ ...prev, [f.key]: e.target.value }))}
+              className={`w-full input-glass px-3 py-2 text-sm ${f.mono ? 'num' : ''}`}
+            />
+            <span className="block text-[11px] text-gray-600">{f.hint}</span>
+          </label>
+        ))}
+      </div>
+
+      <div className="flex items-center gap-2">
+        <button
+          className="btn-primary px-4 py-2 text-sm"
+          onClick={() => update.mutate(form)}
+          disabled={update.isPending}
+        >
+          {update.isPending ? 'Saving…' : 'Save Schedule'}
+        </button>
+        <button
+          className="px-4 py-2 text-sm rounded border border-white/[0.1] text-gray-300 hover:text-white"
+          onClick={() => {
+            setForm(DEFAULTS);
+            update.mutate(DEFAULTS);
+          }}
+          disabled={update.isPending}
+        >
+          Reset to Defaults
+        </button>
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  );
+}

frontend/src/components/signals/BacktestPanel.tsx

@@ -161,18 +161,19 @@ export function BacktestPanel() {
             {report.sweep && report.sweep.length > 0 && (
               <div>
                 <p className="mb-2 text-xs font-medium uppercase tracking-widest text-gray-500">
-                  Min target-probability sweep
+                  Min expected-value sweep
                 </p>
                 <p className="mb-2 text-[11px] text-gray-500">
-                  How many setups qualify — and how they perform — at each gate threshold (other
-                  gate conditions held fixed). Lower = more trades, watch that expectancy holds.
-                  Your current setting is highlighted; set it in Admin → Settings → Activation.
+                  How many setups qualify — and how they perform — at each expected-value gate (other
+                  gate conditions held fixed). EV is in R: 0.15 means +0.15× your risk per trade on
+                  average. Lower = more trades, watch that expectancy holds. Your current setting is
+                  highlighted; set it in Admin → Settings → Activation.
                 </p>
                 <div className="glass overflow-x-auto">
                   <table className="w-full text-sm">
                     <thead>
                       <tr className="border-b border-white/[0.06] text-left text-xs uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-500">
-                        <th className="px-4 py-2.5">Min Target Prob</th>
+                        <th className="px-4 py-2.5">Min EV (R)</th>
                         <th className="px-4 py-2.5 text-right">Qualified</th>
                         <th className="px-4 py-2.5 text-right">Wins</th>
                         <th className="px-4 py-2.5 text-right">Losses</th>
@@ -183,12 +184,12 @@ export function BacktestPanel() {
                     </thead>
                     <tbody>
                       {report.sweep.map((row) => {
-                        const current = Math.abs(row.min_target_probability - report.min_target_probability) < 0.5;
+                        const current = Math.abs(row.min_expected_value - report.min_expected_value) < 0.001;
                         return (
-                          <tr key={row.min_target_probability} className={`border-b border-white/[0.04] ${current ? 'bg-blue-400/10' : ''}`}>
+                          <tr key={row.min_expected_value} className={`border-b border-white/[0.04] ${current ? 'bg-blue-400/10' : ''}`}>
                             <td className="num px-4 py-2.5 text-gray-200">
                               {current && <span className="mr-1 text-blue-300">★</span>}
-                              {row.min_target_probability}%
+                              {row.min_expected_value.toFixed(2)}
                             </td>
                             <td className="num px-4 py-2.5 text-right text-gray-200">{row.total}</td>
                             <td className="num px-4 py-2.5 text-right text-emerald-400">{row.wins}</td>

frontend/src/hooks/useAdmin.ts

@@ -140,6 +140,31 @@ export function useUpdateActivationSettings() {
   });
 }
 
+export function useScheduleSettings() {
+  return useQuery({
+    queryKey: ['admin', 'schedule-settings'],
+    queryFn: () => adminApi.getScheduleSettings(),
+  });
+}
+
+export function useUpdateScheduleSettings() {
+  const qc = useQueryClient();
+  const { addToast } = useToast();
+
+  return useMutation({
+    mutationFn: (payload: Partial<import('../lib/types').ScheduleConfig>) =>
+      adminApi.updateScheduleSettings(payload),
+    onSuccess: () => {
+      qc.invalidateQueries({ queryKey: ['admin', 'schedule-settings'] });
+      qc.invalidateQueries({ queryKey: ['admin', 'jobs'] });
+      addToast('success', 'Schedule updated');
+    },
+    onError: (error: Error) => {
+      addToast('error', error.message || 'Failed to update schedule');
+    },
+  });
+}
+
 export function useSentimentSettings() {
   return useQuery({
     queryKey: ['admin', 'sentiment-settings'],

frontend/src/lib/qualification.ts

@@ -48,6 +48,10 @@ export function qualifiesSetup(setup: TradeSetup, config: ActivationConfig): boo
     return false;
   }
   if ((setup.confidence_score ?? 0) < config.min_confidence) return false;
+  // Expected value (R) is the core gate. Only enforced when computable — setups
+  // without target probabilities defer to the R:R + confidence floors above.
+  const ev = expectedValueR(setup);
+  if (ev != null && ev < config.min_expected_value) return false;
   if (config.require_high_conviction && !HIGH_CONVICTION_ACTIONS.has(setup.recommended_action ?? '')) {
     return false;
   }
@@ -60,7 +64,7 @@ export function qualifiesSetup(setup: TradeSetup, config: ActivationConfig): boo
 
 /** Short human summary of the active gate, e.g. for tooltips/labels. */
 export function activationSummary(config: ActivationConfig): string {
-  const parts = [`R:R ≥ ${config.min_rr.toFixed(1)}`, `conf ≥ ${config.min_confidence.toFixed(0)}%`];
+  const parts = [`EV ≥ ${config.min_expected_value.toFixed(2)}R`, `R:R ≥ ${config.min_rr.toFixed(1)}`, `conf ≥ ${config.min_confidence.toFixed(0)}%`];
   if (config.require_high_conviction) parts.push('high-conviction');
   if (config.exclude_conflicts) parts.push('clean');
   if (config.min_target_probability > 0) parts.push(`target ≥ ${config.min_target_probability.toFixed(0)}%`);

frontend/src/lib/types.ts

@@ -158,6 +158,7 @@ export interface PerformanceStats {
 
 // Activation gate: what counts as an actionable signal
 export interface ActivationConfig {
+  min_expected_value: number;
   min_rr: number;
   min_confidence: number;
   min_target_probability: number;
@@ -165,6 +166,14 @@ export interface ActivationConfig {
   exclude_conflicts: boolean;
 }
 
+// Cron schedule for the daily/intraday pipelines + fundamentals
+export interface ScheduleConfig {
+  schedule_timezone: string;
+  schedule_daily_pipeline_cron: string;
+  schedule_intraday_pipeline_cron: string;
+  schedule_fundamentals_cron: string;
+}
+
 // Runtime sentiment LLM configuration
 export interface SentimentProviderConfig {
   provider: string;
@@ -212,7 +221,7 @@ export interface BacktestCalibrationRow {
 }
 
 export interface BacktestSweepRow extends BacktestBucket {
-  min_target_probability: number;
+  min_expected_value: number;
 }
 
 export interface BacktestReport {
@@ -224,7 +233,7 @@ export interface BacktestReport {
   overall_qualified: BacktestBucket;
   overall_all: BacktestBucket;
   by_direction: Record<string, BacktestBucket>;
-  min_target_probability: number;
+  min_expected_value: number;
   sweep: BacktestSweepRow[];
   calibration: BacktestCalibrationRow[];
   note: string;

frontend/src/pages/AdminPage.tsx

@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ import { DataCleanup } from '../components/admin/DataCleanup';
 import { JobControls } from '../components/admin/JobControls';
 import { PipelineReadinessPanel } from '../components/admin/PipelineReadinessPanel';
 import { RecommendationSettings } from '../components/admin/RecommendationSettings';
+import { ScheduleSettings } from '../components/admin/ScheduleSettings';
 import { SettingsForm } from '../components/admin/SettingsForm';
 import { TickerManagement } from '../components/admin/TickerManagement';
 import { TickerUniverseBootstrap } from '../components/admin/TickerUniverseBootstrap';
@@ -41,6 +42,7 @@ export default function AdminPage() {
         )}
         {activeTab === 'Jobs' && (
           <div className="space-y-4">
+            <ScheduleSettings />
             <JobControls />
             <PipelineReadinessPanel />
           </div>