redesign activation gate to expected value + make pipelines cron-configurable

Diagnosing "no qualified signals for 5 days": setups were generated but none
qualified. The gate required BOTH a high min_rr (2.0) AND a high
min_target_probability (60), which became contradictory after the Jun-15
probability recalibration — probability already embeds R:R via the 1/(rr+1) ruin
term, so high-R:R targets are inherently low-probability and nothing cleared both.

Gate is now expected value (R): p*rr - (1-p) from the primary target's
probability. R:R and confidence stay as floors; high-conviction / exclude-conflicts
/ min-target-probability become optional tighteners (default off). Defaults:
min_expected_value=0.15, min_rr=1.2, min_confidence=55. EV is only enforced when
computable. Migration 009 clears stored activation_* rows so the new defaults
apply. Backtest sweeps min_expected_value instead of target probability.

Scheduling: pipelines are now cron-configurable in Admin -> Jobs. daily_pipeline
(full, default 0 7 * * *) plus a new light intraday_pipeline (OHLCV + outcome eval,
default hourly US session) that keeps prices/live-R:R current without setup churn.
Fundamentals on its own early weekly cron. Timezone configurable (default
Europe/Berlin). Moving interval->CronTrigger also fixes the restart-deferral bug
where an interval job's countdown resets on every process restart.

319 backend unit tests pass; frontend tsc clean.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

app/services/admin_service.py

@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 """Admin service: user management, system settings, data cleanup, job control."""
 
+import logging
 from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
 
 from passlib.hash import bcrypt
@@ -17,6 +18,8 @@ from app.models.ticker import Ticker
 from app.models.trade_setup import TradeSetup
 from app.models.user import User
 
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
 RECOMMENDATION_CONFIG_DEFAULTS: dict[str, float] = {
     "recommendation_high_confidence_threshold": 70.0,
     "recommendation_moderate_confidence_threshold": 50.0,
@@ -35,10 +38,12 @@ SUPPORTED_TICKER_UNIVERSES = {"sp500", "nasdaq100", "nasdaq_all"}
 # Track Record's qualified stats. The outcome evaluator deliberately ignores
 # these — every setup is evaluated so the gate itself can be validated.
 #
-# Beyond raw R:R and confidence, the gate demands conviction: a high-conviction
-# action (LONG_HIGH / SHORT_HIGH), a clean read (risk Low / no conflicts), and a
-# probable primary target.
+# The core test is expected value (in R): probability-weighted asymmetry, so a
+# fat-but-improbable target and a likely-but-thin one are both rejected. R:R and
+# confidence are floors; high-conviction / clean-read / target-probability are
+# optional tighteners (off by default — turn on to be more selective).
 _ACTIVATION_FLOAT_KEYS: dict[str, str] = {
+    "min_expected_value": "activation_min_expected_value",
     "min_rr": "activation_min_rr",
     "min_confidence": "activation_min_confidence",
     "min_target_probability": "activation_min_target_probability",
@@ -48,11 +53,12 @@ _ACTIVATION_BOOL_KEYS: dict[str, str] = {
     "exclude_conflicts": "activation_exclude_conflicts",
 }
 ACTIVATION_DEFAULTS: dict[str, float | bool] = {
-    "min_rr": 2.0,
-    "min_confidence": 70.0,
-    "min_target_probability": 60.0,
-    "require_high_conviction": True,
-    "exclude_conflicts": True,
+    "min_expected_value": 0.15,
+    "min_rr": 1.2,
+    "min_confidence": 55.0,
+    "min_target_probability": 0.0,
+    "require_high_conviction": False,
+    "exclude_conflicts": False,
 }
 
 
@@ -195,6 +201,8 @@ async def update_activation_config(
     db: AsyncSession, updates: dict[str, float | bool]
 ) -> dict[str, float | bool]:
     """Update the activation gate. Accepts public keys; only supplied keys change."""
+    if "min_expected_value" in updates and not -1.0 <= updates["min_expected_value"] <= 10.0:
+        raise ValidationError("min_expected_value must be between -1 and 10 (R units)")
     if "min_rr" in updates and updates["min_rr"] < 0:
         raise ValidationError("min_rr must be >= 0")
     if "min_confidence" in updates and not 0 <= updates["min_confidence"] <= 100:
@@ -212,6 +220,59 @@ async def update_activation_config(
     return await get_activation_config(db)
 
 
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Pipeline schedule (cron)
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+async def get_schedule_config(db: AsyncSession) -> dict[str, str]:
+    """Cron schedule for the daily/intraday pipelines and fundamentals."""
+    from app.scheduler import load_schedule_config
+
+    return await load_schedule_config(db)
+
+
+async def update_schedule_config(
+    db: AsyncSession, updates: dict[str, str]
+) -> dict[str, str]:
+    """Validate, persist, and apply cron schedule changes to the running scheduler."""
+    from app.scheduler import (
+        SCHEDULE_DEFAULTS,
+        load_schedule_config,
+        reschedule_jobs,
+        validate_cron,
+    )
+
+    current = await load_schedule_config(db)
+    tz = (updates.get("schedule_timezone") or current["schedule_timezone"]).strip()
+
+    for key, value in updates.items():
+        if key not in SCHEDULE_DEFAULTS:
+            raise ValidationError(f"Unknown schedule key: {key}")
+        if key == "schedule_timezone":
+            # Validate the timezone against an existing cron expression.
+            try:
+                validate_cron(current["schedule_daily_pipeline_cron"], value)
+            except Exception as exc:
+                raise ValidationError(f"Invalid timezone: {value}") from exc
+        else:
+            try:
+                validate_cron(value, tz)
+            except Exception as exc:
+                raise ValidationError(f"Invalid cron for {key}: {value!r}") from exc
+
+    for key, value in updates.items():
+        await update_setting(db, key, str(value).strip())
+
+    new_config = await load_schedule_config(db)
+    try:
+        reschedule_jobs(new_config)
+    except Exception:
+        # Scheduler may not be running (e.g. unit tests) — the config is saved
+        # regardless and applied on next startup.
+        logger.warning("Could not reschedule jobs after config update", exc_info=True)
+    return new_config
+
+
 def _recommendation_public_to_storage_key(key: str) -> str:
     return f"recommendation_{key}"
 
@@ -486,6 +547,7 @@ VALID_JOB_NAMES = {
     "market_regime",
     "backtest",
     "daily_pipeline",
+    "intraday_pipeline",
 }
 
 JOB_LABELS = {
@@ -499,6 +561,7 @@ JOB_LABELS = {
     "market_regime": "Market Regime",
     "backtest": "Backtest",
     "daily_pipeline": "Daily Pipeline",
+    "intraday_pipeline": "Intraday Pipeline",
 }
 
 # Jobs driven by the daily_pipeline (in order) rather than their own timer.