redesign activation gate to expected value + make pipelines cron-configurable
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Diagnosing "no qualified signals for 5 days": setups were generated but none
qualified. The gate required BOTH a high min_rr (2.0) AND a high
min_target_probability (60), which became contradictory after the Jun-15
probability recalibration — probability already embeds R:R via the 1/(rr+1) ruin
term, so high-R:R targets are inherently low-probability and nothing cleared both.

Gate is now expected value (R): p*rr - (1-p) from the primary target's
probability. R:R and confidence stay as floors; high-conviction / exclude-conflicts
/ min-target-probability become optional tighteners (default off). Defaults:
min_expected_value=0.15, min_rr=1.2, min_confidence=55. EV is only enforced when
computable. Migration 009 clears stored activation_* rows so the new defaults
apply. Backtest sweeps min_expected_value instead of target probability.

Scheduling: pipelines are now cron-configurable in Admin -> Jobs. daily_pipeline
(full, default 0 7 * * *) plus a new light intraday_pipeline (OHLCV + outcome eval,
default hourly US session) that keeps prices/live-R:R current without setup churn.
Fundamentals on its own early weekly cron. Timezone configurable (default
Europe/Berlin). Moving interval->CronTrigger also fixes the restart-deferral bug
where an interval job's countdown resets on every process restart.

319 backend unit tests pass; frontend tsc clean.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
2026-06-23 14:46:38 +02:00
parent d53b4ffb57
commit c34f3cb1a4
22 changed files with 777 additions and 171 deletions
+10
View File
@@ -59,6 +59,7 @@ class TickerUniverseUpdate(BaseModel):
class ActivationConfigUpdate(BaseModel):
"""Activation gate: what counts as an actionable signal."""
min_expected_value: float | None = Field(default=None, ge=-1, le=10)
min_rr: float | None = Field(default=None, ge=0)
min_confidence: float | None = Field(default=None, ge=0, le=100)
min_target_probability: float | None = Field(default=None, ge=0, le=100)
@@ -66,6 +67,15 @@ class ActivationConfigUpdate(BaseModel):
exclude_conflicts: bool | None = None
class ScheduleConfigUpdate(BaseModel):
"""Cron schedule for the pipelines + fundamentals. Crons are 5-field
(min hour dom month dow); timezone is an IANA name (e.g. Europe/Berlin)."""
schedule_timezone: str | None = Field(default=None, max_length=64)
schedule_daily_pipeline_cron: str | None = Field(default=None, max_length=120)
schedule_intraday_pipeline_cron: str | None = Field(default=None, max_length=120)
schedule_fundamentals_cron: str | None = Field(default=None, max_length=120)
class SentimentConfigUpdate(BaseModel):
"""Runtime sentiment LLM config. api_key is write-only; omit/empty to keep
the stored key."""