feat: shadow book + shadow-vs-manual performance comparison

The manual paper book only contains trades taken by hand, inside a 20
minute window, on days someone was available. The backtest that validated
this strategy auto-takes the top-ranked qualified setups up to capacity
every session. The forward record was therefore measuring strategy plus
discretion plus availability -- and degrading silently on busy days.

The shadow book closes that gap: it mirrors the backtest's selection rule
(top strategy_rank qualified, up to capacity, 1% fixed-fractional risk)
and shares the manual book's exit policy, so the only difference between
the two books is which setups get taken. Selection ordering reuses the
strategy_rank the scanner already stores rather than recomputing it, so
the two cannot drift apart. It runs as a near-close pipeline step right
after the scan, marking entries at the same prices a human would see.

Gate-reset re-entry state is now scoped per book -- the books diverge as
soon as their entries differ, and each must see only its own stops.

Performance view rewritten around the comparison:
  - three series (shadow, manual, SPY) from a new endpoint
  - SPY changes from a per-trade cost-basis counterfactual to plain
    buy-and-hold %, since one line has to serve two books
  - headline stats are R-multiples, not currency: the books size
    differently, so only R compares across them
  - configurable start date, because the strategy has been revised
    repeatedly and pre-cutover trades ran under rules that no longer
    exist

Migration 024 also repairs the numeric weekday crons written by 023,
rewriting only rows still holding the broken form so hand-corrected
settings survive. Its literals are inlined because bound parameters
render as NULL under 'alembic upgrade --sql'.

The shadow book is opt-in and writes nothing until enabled. Verify its
first selections match a backtest of that day's cross-section before
trusting any point on the curve.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
2026-07-20 23:44:41 +02:00
co-authored by Claude Fable 5
parent 29715ef3d1
commit ba2df8b9fd
17 changed files with 1334 additions and 40 deletions
+58 -1
View File
@@ -33,7 +33,13 @@ from app.exceptions import ProviderError
from app.providers.alpaca import AlpacaOHLCVProvider
from app.providers.fundamentals_chain import build_fundamental_provider_chain
from app.providers.protocol import SentimentData
from app.services import fundamental_service, ingestion_service, sentiment_service, settings_store
from app.services import (
fundamental_service,
ingestion_service,
sentiment_service,
settings_store,
shadow_book_service,
)
from app.services.alert_service import dispatch_alerts
from app.services.backtest_service import (
BACKTEST_TARGET_MODELS,
@@ -610,6 +616,54 @@ async def backfill_ohlcv() -> None:
await collect_ohlcv(full_backfill=True, job_name="data_backfill")
async def run_shadow_book() -> None:
"""Open the strategy's own positions from the latest qualifying scan.
The shadow book is the faithful live twin of the backtest: top-ranked
qualified setups, up to capacity, 1% risk, no human input. It runs straight
after the near-close scan so its entries are marked at the same near-close
prices the discretionary book sees, leaving *selection* as the only
difference between the two books.
Opt-in (``shadow_book_enabled``) because it writes live trades.
"""
job_name = "shadow_book"
_log_event(logging.INFO, "job_start", job=job_name)
_runtime_start(job_name, total=1)
try:
async with async_session_factory() as db:
if not await _is_job_enabled(db, job_name):
_log_event(logging.INFO, "job_skipped", job=job_name, reason="disabled")
_runtime_finish(job_name, "skipped", processed=0, total=1, message="Disabled")
return
if not await shadow_book_service.is_enabled(db):
_log_event(logging.INFO, "job_skipped", job=job_name, reason="not enabled in settings")
_runtime_finish(job_name, "skipped", processed=0, total=1, message="Not enabled")
return
from app.services.admin_service import get_activation_config
activation_config = await get_activation_config(db)
summary = await shadow_book_service.open_shadow_positions(
db, activation_config=activation_config
)
symbols = await shadow_book_service.symbols_for(db, summary["symbols"])
_runtime_progress(job_name, processed=1, total=1)
_runtime_finish(
job_name, "completed", processed=1, total=1,
message=(
f"Opened {summary['opened']} ({', '.join(symbols) if symbols else 'none'}); "
f"held {summary['skipped_held']}, gate-locked {summary['skipped_locked']}"
),
)
_log_event(logging.INFO, "job_complete", job=job_name, opened=summary["opened"], symbols=symbols)
except Exception as exc:
_runtime_finish(job_name, "error", processed=0, total=1, message=str(exc))
_log_event(logging.ERROR, "job_error", job=job_name, error_type=type(exc).__name__, message=str(exc))
async def collect_ohlcv_final() -> None:
"""After-close OHLCV refresh that replaces the day's partial bar.
@@ -1238,6 +1292,9 @@ _NEAR_CLOSE_PIPELINE_STEPS = [
# back to the previous close and execution degrades to the stale_close floor.
("data_collector", "collect_ohlcv"),
("rr_scanner", "scan_rr"),
# Straight after the scan so shadow entries mark at the same near-close
# prices the discretionary book is looking at.
("shadow_book", "run_shadow_book"),
("alerts", "dispatch_alerts_job"),
]