Align backtest production sim with live runtime config

The portfolio monitor's Production row now replays the live qualification
flag and the Admin exit policy (mode/ATR multiplier/hold days) instead of a
frozen research-variant gate, so Admin tuning is reflected in the next run.
Single-source the 80/20 strategy_rank weights in momentum_service and pin
every dual-defined constant with a parity test. Behavior-preserving today:
the production sim reproduces the README baseline exactly.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

README.md

@@ -83,6 +83,8 @@ The conclusion is not "trade high volatility alone." Keep residual momentum as t
 
 Live-ranking note: the backtest ranks residual momentum and volatility inside each weekly setup-candidate cross-section. The live scanner computes the same 80/20 formula across the current ticker universe before scanning so every generated setup carries a stable ticker-level rank. That is the production approximation; reconcile it later only if candidate-only post-scan ranking proves materially different.
 
+Parity guard (July 2026): the portfolio monitor's **Production** row replays the *runtime* configuration — the live activation gate (`qualified` flag) and the Admin exit policy (mode / ATR multiplier / hold days) — so tuning the strategy in Admin is reflected in the next backtest run instead of silently diverging. Constants defined on both sides (exit defaults, trail width, the 80/20 ordering weights, the promoted cutoff) are pinned by `tests/unit/test_prod_strategy_parity.py`, and the ordering weights are single-sourced from `momentum_service`.
+
 ### The iron rule for strategy changes
 
 A signal earns its way into selection **only** through the factor harness:

app/services/backtest_service.py

@@ -44,7 +44,10 @@ from app.models.ticker import Ticker
 from app.services import settings_store
 from app.services.admin_service import get_activation_config, update_setting
 from app.services.indicator_service import _extract_ohlcv, compute_atr
-from app.services.momentum_service import compute_realized_vol_6m
+from app.services.momentum_service import (
+    STRATEGY_RANK_MOMENTUM_WEIGHT,
+    compute_realized_vol_6m,
+)
 from app.services.outcome_service import (
     OUTCOME_AMBIGUOUS,
     OUTCOME_STOP_HIT,
@@ -941,7 +944,9 @@ def _assign_residual_high_vol_blend(candidates: list[dict]) -> None:
     """Research ranks: residual momentum blended with higher-vol preference."""
     for output_key, residual_weight in (
         (RESIDUAL_HIGH_VOL_BLEND_90_10_KEY, 0.9),
-        (RESIDUAL_HIGH_VOL_BLEND_80_20_KEY, 0.8),
+        # The production ordering weight comes from momentum_service so the
+        # simulated production rank cannot drift from the live strategy_rank.
+        (RESIDUAL_HIGH_VOL_BLEND_80_20_KEY, STRATEGY_RANK_MOMENTUM_WEIGHT),
         (RESIDUAL_HIGH_VOL_BLEND_KEY, 0.7),
         (RESIDUAL_HIGH_VOL_BLEND_60_40_KEY, 0.6),
     ):
@@ -1061,6 +1066,20 @@ SIM_STARTING_CAPITAL = 10_000.0
 SIM_MAX_POSITIONS = 10
 SIM_RISK_PER_TRADE = 0.01  # fraction of equity risked per position (entry→stop)
 SIM_NOTIONAL_CAP = 0.20    # max fraction of equity per position (no margin)
+# The "atr_trail3" research policy's trail width. Must equal the live default
+# (paper_trade_service.DEFAULT_ATR_MULTIPLIER) — enforced by the parity test.
+# The production portfolio-monitor row additionally follows the *runtime* Admin
+# exit policy, so tuning it live is reflected in the next backtest run.
+ATR_TRAIL_MULTIPLIER = 3.0
+# How live Admin exit modes map onto simulator exit policies. "trailing"
+# (percent trail) has no simulator counterpart and falls back to the plain
+# hold-to-horizon book; the row's live_exit_mode field keeps that visible.
+LIVE_EXIT_MODE_TO_SIM = {
+    "atr_trailing": "atr_trail3",
+    "time": "hold",
+    "target": "target",
+    "trailing": "hold",
+}
 
 
 def _simulate_portfolio(
@@ -1074,6 +1093,7 @@ def _simulate_portfolio(
     ranking_key: str = PRODUCTION_PERCENTILE_KEY,
     max_positions: int = SIM_MAX_POSITIONS,
     risk_per_trade: float = SIM_RISK_PER_TRADE,
+    atr_trail_multiplier: float = ATR_TRAIL_MULTIPLIER,
     start_date: date | None = None,
     include_curve: bool = False,
 ) -> dict | None:
@@ -1249,7 +1269,7 @@ def _simulate_portfolio(
                 pos["highest_close"] = max(pos["highest_close"], bar.close)
                 atr = _atr(sym, bar.idx)
                 if atr is not None:
-                    next_stop = pos["highest_close"] - 3.0 * atr
+                    next_stop = pos["highest_close"] - atr_trail_multiplier * atr
                     if next_stop < bar.close:
                         pos["stop"] = max(pos["stop"], next_stop)
 
@@ -1756,9 +1776,16 @@ PORTFOLIO_MONITOR_STRATEGIES: tuple[dict, ...] = (
     {
         "strategy": PRODUCTION_PORTFOLIO_STRATEGY,
         "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail",
-        "description": "Residual gate, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank, 3x ATR trailing stop.",
+        "description": (
+            "The live strategy: production activation gate and Admin exit policy "
+            "as currently configured, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank."
+        ),
         "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10",
         "exit_policy": "atr_trail3",
+        # The production row replays what the platform actually does right now:
+        # the live qualification flag (runtime Admin activation settings) and the
+        # live Admin exit policy, instead of the frozen research-variant gate.
+        "use_live_config": True,
         "is_production": True,
     },
 )
@@ -1817,6 +1844,7 @@ def _portfolio_monitor(
     prices: dict[str, tuple],
     _spy_closes: dict[date, float] | None,
     hold_days: int,
+    live_exit_policy: dict | None = None,
 ) -> dict:
     latest_ord = max((max(cols[0]) for cols in prices.values() if cols[0]), default=None)
     rows: list[dict] = []
@@ -1825,18 +1853,40 @@ def _portfolio_monitor(
         if entry_cfg is None:
             continue
         ranking_key = str(entry_cfg.get("ranking_key") or entry_cfg["percentile_key"])
+        # The production row must replay the LIVE configuration: the runtime
+        # qualification flag (Admin activation settings) instead of the frozen
+        # research-variant gate, and the Admin exit policy instead of the
+        # hardcoded 3x-trail/30d defaults. Research rows stay frozen so they
+        # remain comparable across runs.
+        use_live = bool(strategy.get("use_live_config"))
+        exit_policy = str(strategy["exit_policy"])
+        row_hold_days = hold_days
+        trail_multiplier = ATR_TRAIL_MULTIPLIER
+        live_exit_mode: str | None = None
+        if use_live and live_exit_policy is not None:
+            live_exit_mode = str(live_exit_policy.get("mode", "atr_trailing"))
+            exit_policy = LIVE_EXIT_MODE_TO_SIM.get(live_exit_mode, "atr_trail3")
+            row_hold_days = int(live_exit_policy.get("hold_days", hold_days))
+            trail_multiplier = float(
+                live_exit_policy.get("atr_multiplier", ATR_TRAIL_MULTIPLIER)
+            )
+        qualified_fn = (
+            None if use_live
+            else lambda c, config=entry_cfg: _qualifies_strategy_variant(c, config)
+        )
         for lookback in PORTFOLIO_MONITOR_LOOKBACKS:
             start = _lookback_start(latest_ord, lookback["days"])
             sim = _simulate_portfolio(
                 candidates,
                 prices,
                 _spy_closes,
-                str(strategy["exit_policy"]),
-                hold_days,
-                qualified_fn=lambda c, config=entry_cfg: _qualifies_strategy_variant(c, config),
+                exit_policy,
+                row_hold_days,
+                qualified_fn=qualified_fn,
                 ranking_key=ranking_key,
                 max_positions=int(entry_cfg["max_positions"]),
                 risk_per_trade=float(entry_cfg["risk_per_trade"]),
+                atr_trail_multiplier=trail_multiplier,
                 start_date=start,
                 include_curve=True,
             )
@@ -1848,7 +1898,8 @@ def _portfolio_monitor(
                 "description": strategy["description"],
                 "is_production": bool(strategy.get("is_production")),
                 "entry_variant": strategy["entry_variant"],
-                "exit_policy": strategy["exit_policy"],
+                "exit_policy": exit_policy,
+                "live_exit_mode": live_exit_mode,
                 "lookback": lookback["lookback"],
                 "lookback_label": lookback["label"],
                 **sim,
@@ -2415,8 +2466,16 @@ async def run_backtest(
         exit_policy_rows = _exit_policy_sims(
             candidates, price_columns, spy_closes, hold_horizon
         )
+        live_exit_policy: dict | None = None
+        try:
+            from app.services.paper_trade_service import get_exit_policy
+
+            live_exit_policy = await get_exit_policy(db)
+        except Exception:
+            logger.exception("Live exit policy load failed; monitor uses defaults")
         portfolio_monitor_report = _portfolio_monitor(
-            candidates, price_columns, spy_closes, hold_horizon
+            candidates, price_columns, spy_closes, hold_horizon,
+            live_exit_policy=live_exit_policy,
         )
     except Exception:
         logger.exception("Portfolio simulation failed")

app/services/momentum_service.py

@@ -27,6 +27,12 @@ logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 _MOM_LOOKBACK = 252
 _MOM_SKIP = 21
 
+# Promoted production ordering: strategy_rank blends the momentum and realized-
+# volatility percentiles. Single source of truth — the backtest's production
+# ranking key imports these so live and simulated ordering cannot drift.
+STRATEGY_RANK_MOMENTUM_WEIGHT = 0.8
+STRATEGY_RANK_VOL_WEIGHT = 1.0 - STRATEGY_RANK_MOMENTUM_WEIGHT
+
 
 def compute_12_1_momentum(closes: list[float]) -> float | None:
     """Return over the window ending ~1 month ago, starting ~12 months ago.
@@ -199,7 +205,11 @@ async def compute_activation_ranks(db: AsyncSession) -> dict[str, dict[str, floa
         momentum_pct = momentum_percentiles.get(sym)
         vol_pct = vol_percentiles.get(sym)
         strategy_rank = (
-            round(momentum_pct * 0.8 + vol_pct * 0.2, 2)
+            round(
+                momentum_pct * STRATEGY_RANK_MOMENTUM_WEIGHT
+                + vol_pct * STRATEGY_RANK_VOL_WEIGHT,
+                2,
+            )
             if momentum_pct is not None and vol_pct is not None
             else momentum_pct
         )

tests/unit/test_prod_strategy_parity.py

@@ -0,0 +1,88 @@
+"""Parity guards: the backtest's production strategy must equal the live setup.
+
+The portfolio monitor's production row replays the live qualification flag and
+the runtime Admin exit policy, but several constants are still defined on both
+sides (defaults, trail width, ordering weights). These tests fail if the two
+sides drift, so a change to the live strategy forces the backtest — and vice
+versa — to move with it.
+"""
+
+import pytest
+
+from app.services import paper_trade_service
+from app.services.admin_service import ACTIVATION_DEFAULTS
+from app.services.backtest_service import (
+    ATR_TRAIL_MULTIPLIER,
+    LIVE_EXIT_MODE_TO_SIM,
+    PORTFOLIO_MONITOR_STRATEGIES,
+    PRODUCTION_PERCENTILE_KEY,
+    RESIDUAL_HIGH_VOL_BLEND_80_20_KEY,
+    TIME_EXIT_DAYS,
+    _entry_variant_config,
+    _momentum_qualifies,
+    _qualifies_strategy_variant,
+)
+from app.services.momentum_service import (
+    STRATEGY_RANK_MOMENTUM_WEIGHT,
+    STRATEGY_RANK_VOL_WEIGHT,
+)
+
+
+def _production_monitor_row() -> dict:
+    return next(s for s in PORTFOLIO_MONITOR_STRATEGIES if s.get("is_production"))
+
+
+def test_exit_defaults_match_the_simulated_exit() -> None:
+    assert paper_trade_service.DEFAULT_EXIT_MODE == "atr_trailing"
+    assert LIVE_EXIT_MODE_TO_SIM[paper_trade_service.DEFAULT_EXIT_MODE] == "atr_trail3"
+    assert paper_trade_service.DEFAULT_ATR_MULTIPLIER == ATR_TRAIL_MULTIPLIER
+    assert paper_trade_service.DEFAULT_HOLD_DAYS == max(TIME_EXIT_DAYS)
+
+
+def test_every_live_exit_mode_has_a_sim_mapping() -> None:
+    assert set(paper_trade_service._VALID_EXIT_MODES) == set(LIVE_EXIT_MODE_TO_SIM)
+
+
+def test_gate_default_matches_the_promoted_cutoff() -> None:
+    prod = _production_monitor_row()
+    entry_cfg = _entry_variant_config(str(prod["entry_variant"]))
+    assert entry_cfg is not None
+    assert float(entry_cfg["cutoff"]) == float(ACTIVATION_DEFAULTS["min_momentum_percentile"])
+
+
+def test_production_ordering_weights_are_single_sourced() -> None:
+    # The promoted ordering is 80/20 momentum/vol; the backtest imports the
+    # weight, so equality here pins the *value* the promotion was validated at.
+    assert STRATEGY_RANK_MOMENTUM_WEIGHT == 0.8
+    assert STRATEGY_RANK_VOL_WEIGHT == pytest.approx(0.2)
+    prod = _production_monitor_row()
+    entry_cfg = _entry_variant_config(str(prod["entry_variant"]))
+    assert entry_cfg is not None
+    assert entry_cfg["ranking_key"] == RESIDUAL_HIGH_VOL_BLEND_80_20_KEY
+
+
+def test_production_monitor_row_replays_the_live_config() -> None:
+    prod = _production_monitor_row()
+    assert prod.get("use_live_config") is True
+    assert prod["exit_policy"] == "atr_trail3"
+
+
+def test_live_gate_equals_the_production_variant_gate() -> None:
+    """The monitor's live-gate switch relies on the runtime `qualified` flag
+    (_momentum_qualifies) selecting exactly what the frozen production variant
+    gate selects at the default cutoff."""
+    prod = _production_monitor_row()
+    entry_cfg = _entry_variant_config(str(prod["entry_variant"]))
+    assert entry_cfg is not None
+    cutoff = float(ACTIVATION_DEFAULTS["min_momentum_percentile"])
+    for cand in (
+        {"meets_core": True, "direction": "long", PRODUCTION_PERCENTILE_KEY: 92.0},
+        {"meets_core": True, "direction": "long", PRODUCTION_PERCENTILE_KEY: 80.0},
+        {"meets_core": True, "direction": "long", PRODUCTION_PERCENTILE_KEY: 79.9},
+        {"meets_core": True, "direction": "long", PRODUCTION_PERCENTILE_KEY: None},
+        {"meets_core": True, "direction": "short", PRODUCTION_PERCENTILE_KEY: 95.0},
+        {"meets_core": False, "direction": "long", PRODUCTION_PERCENTILE_KEY: 95.0},
+    ):
+        assert _momentum_qualifies(cand, cutoff) == _qualifies_strategy_variant(
+            cand, entry_cfg
+        ), cand