Consolidate setup numbers; clearer staleness message

- Overview Top Setups shows the primary target's probability (concrete,
  distance-calibrated) instead of the overlapping confidence number. The
  stale 100% confidences were leftovers from the old model and self-heal
  on rescan; confidence stays in the detail view + gate.
- Each metric now has one home: composite = ranking, target probability =
  actionability, confidence = direction conviction.
- Staleness message states the real basis (% of entry->target distance
  already covered), not the raw % from entry, so narrow setups read
  correctly ("67% of the move is gone").

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

frontend/src/components/ticker/RecommendationPanel.tsx

@@ -18,14 +18,17 @@ function entryDrift(setup: TradeSetup, currentPrice?: number) {
   if (currentPrice == null || !setup.entry_price) return null;
   const pct = ((currentPrice - setup.entry_price) / setup.entry_price) * 100;
   const towardTarget = setup.direction === 'long' ? currentPrice >= setup.entry_price : currentPrice <= setup.entry_price;
-  // Past the stop entirely = invalidated; moved >1/3 of the way to target = stale
+  // Judge staleness by how much of the entry→target distance is already gone,
+  // not the raw % move — an 8%-wide setup is "used up" far faster than a 40% one.
   const span = Math.abs(setup.target - setup.entry_price);
   const moved = Math.abs(currentPrice - setup.entry_price);
+  const progressPct = span > 0 ? (moved / span) * 100 : 0;
   const beyondStop = setup.direction === 'long' ? currentPrice <= setup.stop_loss : currentPrice >= setup.stop_loss;
   let status: 'fresh' | 'stale' | 'invalidated' = 'fresh';
   if (beyondStop) status = 'invalidated';
-  else if (span > 0 && moved / span > 0.33) status = 'stale';
+  else if (towardTarget && progressPct > 33) status = 'stale';
-  return { pct, towardTarget, status };
+  else if (!towardTarget && progressPct > 33) status = 'stale';
+  return { pct, progressPct, towardTarget, status };
 }
 
 function riskClass(risk: TradeSetup['risk_level']) {
@@ -115,7 +118,9 @@ function SetupCard({ setup, action, currentPrice }: { setup?: TradeSetup; action
       )}
       {drift && drift.status === 'stale' && (
         <p className="text-[11px] text-amber-400">
-          ⚠ Price has moved {drift.pct >= 0 ? '+' : ''}{drift.pct.toFixed(1)}% from entry{drift.towardTarget ? ' toward target' : ' against the setup'} — entry may be stale.
+          {drift.towardTarget
+            ? `⚠ ${drift.progressPct.toFixed(0)}% of the entry→target move is already gone (${drift.pct >= 0 ? '+' : ''}${drift.pct.toFixed(1)}% from entry) — little reward left.`
+            : `⚠ Price has moved ${Math.abs(drift.pct).toFixed(1)}% against the setup (toward the stop) — entry may be stale.`}
         </p>
       )}
 

frontend/src/lib/qualification.ts

@@ -6,6 +6,13 @@ export function bestTargetProbability(setup: TradeSetup): number {
   return setup.targets?.length ? Math.max(...setup.targets.map((t) => t.probability)) : 0;
 }
 
+/** Probability of the starred primary target (the one the headline R:R refers to). */
+export function primaryTargetProbability(setup: TradeSetup): number | null {
+  const primary = setup.targets?.find((t) => t.is_primary);
+  if (primary) return primary.probability;
+  return setup.targets?.length ? bestTargetProbability(setup) : null;
+}
+
 /**
  * Whether a setup clears the activation gate. Mirrors the backend predicate in
  * app/services/qualification.py — keep the two in sync.

frontend/src/pages/DashboardPage.tsx

@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ import { Section } from '../components/ui/Section';
 import { SkeletonCard, SkeletonTable } from '../components/ui/Skeleton';
 import { formatPrice } from '../lib/format';
 import { recommendationActionLabel } from '../lib/recommendation';
-import { qualifiesSetup, activationSummary } from '../lib/qualification';
+import { qualifiesSetup, activationSummary, primaryTargetProbability } from '../lib/qualification';
 import type { TradeSetup } from '../lib/types';
 
 function fmtR(value: number | null): string {
@@ -130,7 +130,7 @@ export default function DashboardPage() {
       <div className="grid gap-8 xl:grid-cols-5">
         {/* Top setups */}
         <div className="xl:col-span-3">
-          <Section title="Top Setups" hint={showingQualified ? 'qualified, by confidence' : 'none qualified — showing all'}>
+          <Section title="Top Setups" hint={showingQualified ? 'qualified' : 'none qualified — showing all'}>
             {trades.isLoading && <SkeletonTable rows={5} cols={5} />}
             {trades.isError && <Callout variant="error">Failed to load setups</Callout>}
             {trades.data && topSetups.length === 0 && (
@@ -145,7 +145,7 @@ export default function DashboardPage() {
                       <th className="px-4 py-3">Dir</th>
                       <th className="px-4 py-3 text-right">Entry</th>
                       <th className="px-4 py-3 text-right">R:R</th>
-                      <th className="px-4 py-3 text-right">Conf.</th>
+                      <th className="px-4 py-3 text-right">Target&nbsp;Prob</th>
                       <th className="hidden px-4 py-3 md:table-cell">Action</th>
                     </tr>
                   </thead>
@@ -161,7 +161,10 @@ export default function DashboardPage() {
                         <td className="num px-4 py-3 text-right text-gray-200">{formatPrice(setup.entry_price)}</td>
                         <td className="num px-4 py-3 text-right text-gray-200">{setup.rr_ratio.toFixed(1)}:1</td>
                         <td className="num px-4 py-3 text-right text-gray-200">
-                          {setup.confidence_score != null ? `${Math.round(setup.confidence_score)}%` : '—'}
+                          {(() => {
+                            const p = primaryTargetProbability(setup);
+                            return p != null ? `${Math.round(p)}%` : '—';
+                          })()}
                         </td>
                         <td className="hidden px-4 py-3 text-xs text-gray-400 md:table-cell">
                           {recommendationActionLabel(setup.recommended_action)}