Consolidate setup numbers; clearer staleness message

- Overview Top Setups shows the primary target's probability (concrete,
  distance-calibrated) instead of the overlapping confidence number. The
  stale 100% confidences were leftovers from the old model and self-heal
  on rescan; confidence stays in the detail view + gate.
- Each metric now has one home: composite = ranking, target probability =
  actionability, confidence = direction conviction.
- Staleness message states the real basis (% of entry->target distance
  already covered), not the raw % from entry, so narrow setups read
  correctly ("67% of the move is gone").

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

frontend/src/pages/DashboardPage.tsx

@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ import { Section } from '../components/ui/Section';
 import { SkeletonCard, SkeletonTable } from '../components/ui/Skeleton';
 import { formatPrice } from '../lib/format';
 import { recommendationActionLabel } from '../lib/recommendation';
-import { qualifiesSetup, activationSummary } from '../lib/qualification';
+import { qualifiesSetup, activationSummary, primaryTargetProbability } from '../lib/qualification';
 import type { TradeSetup } from '../lib/types';
 
 function fmtR(value: number | null): string {
@@ -130,7 +130,7 @@ export default function DashboardPage() {
       <div className="grid gap-8 xl:grid-cols-5">
         {/* Top setups */}
         <div className="xl:col-span-3">
-          <Section title="Top Setups" hint={showingQualified ? 'qualified, by confidence' : 'none qualified — showing all'}>
+          <Section title="Top Setups" hint={showingQualified ? 'qualified' : 'none qualified — showing all'}>
             {trades.isLoading && <SkeletonTable rows={5} cols={5} />}
             {trades.isError && <Callout variant="error">Failed to load setups</Callout>}
             {trades.data && topSetups.length === 0 && (
@@ -145,7 +145,7 @@ export default function DashboardPage() {
                       <th className="px-4 py-3">Dir</th>
                       <th className="px-4 py-3 text-right">Entry</th>
                       <th className="px-4 py-3 text-right">R:R</th>
-                      <th className="px-4 py-3 text-right">Conf.</th>
+                      <th className="px-4 py-3 text-right">Target&nbsp;Prob</th>
                       <th className="hidden px-4 py-3 md:table-cell">Action</th>
                     </tr>
                   </thead>
@@ -161,7 +161,10 @@ export default function DashboardPage() {
                         <td className="num px-4 py-3 text-right text-gray-200">{formatPrice(setup.entry_price)}</td>
                         <td className="num px-4 py-3 text-right text-gray-200">{setup.rr_ratio.toFixed(1)}:1</td>
                         <td className="num px-4 py-3 text-right text-gray-200">
-                          {setup.confidence_score != null ? `${Math.round(setup.confidence_score)}%` : '—'}
+                          {(() => {
+                            const p = primaryTargetProbability(setup);
+                            return p != null ? `${Math.round(p)}%` : '—';
+                          })()}
                         </td>
                         <td className="hidden px-4 py-3 text-xs text-gray-400 md:table-cell">
                           {recommendationActionLabel(setup.recommended_action)}