From 87224a145172926cc8f3f68bec261dda5197bc1f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Dennis Thiessen <dennis@thiessen.io>
Date: Sat, 8 Aug 2026 22:46:41 +0200
Subject: [PATCH] docs(research): regenerate the calibration artifact from a
 clean tree

The previous artifact was produced from a dirty working tree while HEAD still
pointed at the harness commit, so its recorded revision could not reproduce it.
This one records git_dirty false alongside sha256 of the three source files it
depends on, so the claim "checking out this revision reproduces this artifact"
is now checkable rather than implied.

All hard gates pass, including the first-scored-date anchor and the row-wise
state_v4 <= state_v3 invariant, so it carries a non-null recommendation.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
---
 ...onitor-v4-calibration-20260808-224631.json | 2094 +++++++++++++++++
 ...-monitor-v4-calibration-20260808-224631.md |   88 +
 2 files changed, 2182 insertions(+)
 create mode 100644 reports/regime-monitor-v4-calibration-20260808-224631.json
 create mode 100644 reports/regime-monitor-v4-calibration-20260808-224631.md

diff --git a/reports/regime-monitor-v4-calibration-20260808-224631.json b/reports/regime-monitor-v4-calibration-20260808-224631.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..3d24d2b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/reports/regime-monitor-v4-calibration-20260808-224631.json
@@ -0,0 +1,2094 @@
+{
+  "generated_at": "2026-08-08T22:46:31",
+  "source": {
+    "git_rev": "ec1b0ac",
+    "git_dirty": false,
+    "source_sha256": {
+      "app/services/regime_monitor_service.py": "c54e66217872d5de",
+      "app/services/breadth_service.py": "b9ceb93d68d8f01b",
+      "scripts/run_regime_monitor_calibration.py": "6e1c58c1b952087d"
+    }
+  },
+  "params": {
+    "end": "2026-07-24",
+    "sessions": 408,
+    "history_days": 1200,
+    "oas_window_days": 700,
+    "oas_fetch_days": 4748,
+    "methodology": "v2_reconstruction,v2_reconstruction_oas400,v3,v4,v4-vix-only,v4-p1-only,v4-vix-b,v4-p1-capped",
+    "expected_first_session": null,
+    "cache_dir": ".calib-cache",
+    "out": null,
+    "quiet": true
+  },
+  "provenance": {
+    "symbols": {
+      "AAPL": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "MSFT": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "NVDA": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "AMZN": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "META": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "GOOGL": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "AVGO": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "AMD": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "ORCL": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "CRM": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "NOW": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "PLTR": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "ANET": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "DELL": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "SMCI": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "MU": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "QCOM": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "INTC": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "AMAT": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "LRCX": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "KLAC": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "SNPS": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "CDNS": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "ADI": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "TXN": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "IBM": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "CSCO": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "PANW": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "CRWD": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "VRT": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "SMH": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "QQQ": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      },
+      "SPY": {
+        "bars": 825,
+        "first": "2023-04-11",
+        "last": "2026-07-24"
+      }
+    },
+    "vix": {
+      "points": 850,
+      "first": "2023-04-11",
+      "last": "2026-07-24"
+    },
+    "oas": {
+      "points": 778,
+      "first": "2023-08-08",
+      "last": "2026-07-24"
+    },
+    "scored_range": [
+      "2024-12-05",
+      "2026-07-24"
+    ]
+  },
+  "hard_gates": [
+    {
+      "gate": "symbols_fetched",
+      "expected": 33,
+      "measured": 33,
+      "passed": true,
+      "detail": []
+    },
+    {
+      "gate": "per_symbol_warmup_252_bars",
+      "expected": "all",
+      "measured": 33,
+      "passed": true,
+      "detail": []
+    },
+    {
+      "gate": "per_symbol_reaches_last_session",
+      "expected": "2026-07-24",
+      "measured": 33,
+      "passed": true,
+      "detail": []
+    },
+    {
+      "gate": "breadth_counts_full_basket",
+      "expected": 30,
+      "measured": "408/408 sessions",
+      "passed": true,
+      "detail": []
+    },
+    {
+      "gate": "sessions_scored",
+      "expected": 408,
+      "measured": 408,
+      "passed": true
+    },
+    {
+      "gate": "last_scored_date",
+      "expected": "2026-07-24",
+      "measured": "2026-07-24",
+      "passed": true
+    },
+    {
+      "gate": "w1_available_every_session",
+      "expected": 408,
+      "measured": 408,
+      "passed": true
+    },
+    {
+      "gate": "state_coverage_100_every_row",
+      "expected": 0,
+      "measured": 0,
+      "passed": true,
+      "detail": []
+    },
+    {
+      "gate": "no_stale_inputs",
+      "expected": 0,
+      "measured": 0,
+      "passed": true,
+      "detail": []
+    },
+    {
+      "gate": "first_scored_date",
+      "expected": "2024-12-05",
+      "measured": "2024-12-05",
+      "passed": true
+    },
+    {
+      "gate": "state_v4_le_v3_every_row",
+      "expected": 0,
+      "measured": 0,
+      "passed": true,
+      "detail": []
+    }
+  ],
+  "blocked_by": [],
+  "provisional": false,
+  "variants": {
+    "v2_reconstruction": {
+      "label": "v2_reconstruction",
+      "sessions": 408,
+      "state": {
+        "avg": 22.68,
+        "median": 16.15,
+        "p80": 35.1,
+        "p90": 65.63,
+        "max": 91.2,
+        "scored": 408
+      },
+      "warning_avg": 11.65,
+      "saturation_census": {
+        "p3_pegged": 39,
+        "p2_pegged": 0,
+        "v1_pegged": 14,
+        "p1_pegged": 46
+      },
+      "price_argmax_sole": {
+        "P1": 9,
+        "P2": 18,
+        "P3": 308
+      },
+      "price_argmax_tie_inclusive": {
+        "P1": 82,
+        "P2": 53,
+        "P3": 381
+      },
+      "price_argmax_ties": 73,
+      "price_argmax_when_state_ge_40": {
+        "sessions": 64,
+        "sole": {
+          "P1": 8,
+          "P2": 5,
+          "P3": 13
+        },
+        "p1_sole_share_pct": 12.5,
+        "cap_rule": "P1_SCORE_CAP warranted if p1_sole_share_pct > 80"
+      },
+      "w1_nonzero_sessions": 108,
+      "band_shares_current": {
+        "stable": 57.1,
+        "watch": 30.1,
+        "elevated": 1.7,
+        "breaking": 11.0
+      },
+      "soft_gates": [
+        {
+          "gate": "v2_state_avg",
+          "expected": 22.6,
+          "measured": 22.68,
+          "tolerance": 0.3,
+          "passed": true
+        },
+        {
+          "gate": "v2_state_p80",
+          "expected": 35.1,
+          "measured": 35.1,
+          "tolerance": 0.5,
+          "passed": true
+        },
+        {
+          "gate": "v2_state_max",
+          "expected": 91.2,
+          "measured": 91.2,
+          "tolerance": 0.5,
+          "passed": true
+        },
+        {
+          "gate": "v2_p3_pegged",
+          "expected": 39,
+          "measured": 39,
+          "tolerance": 0,
+          "passed": true
+        },
+        {
+          "gate": "w1_live_sessions",
+          "expected": 108,
+          "measured": 108,
+          "tolerance": 0,
+          "passed": true
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    "v2_reconstruction_oas400": {
+      "label": "v2_reconstruction_oas400",
+      "sessions": 408,
+      "state": {
+        "avg": 26.54,
+        "median": 18.65,
+        "p80": 42.52,
+        "p90": 81.3,
+        "max": 100.0,
+        "scored": 408
+      },
+      "warning_avg": 11.2,
+      "saturation_census": {
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+        "p2_pegged": 0,
+        "v1_pegged": 14,
+        "p1_pegged": 46
+      },
+      "price_argmax_sole": {
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+        "P2": 18,
+        "P3": 308
+      },
+      "price_argmax_tie_inclusive": {
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+        "P2": 53,
+        "P3": 381
+      },
+      "price_argmax_ties": 73,
+      "price_argmax_when_state_ge_40": {
+        "sessions": 88,
+        "sole": {
+          "P1": 9,
+          "P2": 14,
+          "P3": 27
+        },
+        "p1_sole_share_pct": 10.2,
+        "cap_rule": "P1_SCORE_CAP warranted if p1_sole_share_pct > 80"
+      },
+      "w1_nonzero_sessions": 108,
+      "band_shares_current": {
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+        "watch": 33.6,
+        "elevated": 2.2,
+        "breaking": 12.5
+      },
+      "soft_gates": []
+    },
+    "v3": {
+      "label": "v3",
+      "sessions": 408,
+      "state": {
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+        "median": 9.1,
+        "p80": 31.36,
+        "p90": 65.0,
+        "max": 87.4,
+        "scored": 408
+      },
+      "warning_avg": 14.88,
+      "saturation_census": {
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+        "p2_pegged": 0,
+        "v1_pegged": 14,
+        "p1_pegged": 46
+      },
+      "price_argmax_sole": {
+        "P1": 71,
+        "P2": 33,
+        "P3": 268
+      },
+      "price_argmax_tie_inclusive": {
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+        "P2": 69,
+        "P3": 304
+      },
+      "price_argmax_ties": 36,
+      "price_argmax_when_state_ge_40": {
+        "sessions": 57,
+        "sole": {
+          "P1": 51,
+          "P2": 4,
+          "P3": 2
+        },
+        "p1_sole_share_pct": 89.5,
+        "cap_rule": "P1_SCORE_CAP warranted if p1_sole_share_pct > 80"
+      },
+      "w1_nonzero_sessions": 197,
+      "band_shares_current": {
+        "stable": 73.0,
+        "watch": 15.4,
+        "elevated": 1.2,
+        "breaking": 10.3
+      },
+      "soft_gates": [
+        {
+          "gate": "v3_state_max",
+          "expected": 87.4,
+          "measured": 87.4,
+          "tolerance": 0.5,
+          "passed": true
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    "v4": {
+      "label": "v4",
+      "sessions": 408,
+      "state": {
+        "avg": 14.78,
+        "median": 8.35,
+        "p80": 21.7,
+        "p90": 43.63,
+        "max": 83.5,
+        "scored": 408
+      },
+      "warning_avg": 14.88,
+      "saturation_census": {
+        "p3_pegged": 0,
+        "p2_pegged": 0,
+        "v1_pegged": 0,
+        "p1_pegged": 0
+      },
+      "price_argmax_sole": {
+        "P1": 17,
+        "P2": 48,
+        "P3": 307
+      },
+      "price_argmax_tie_inclusive": {
+        "P1": 53,
+        "P2": 84,
+        "P3": 343
+      },
+      "price_argmax_ties": 36,
+      "price_argmax_when_state_ge_40": {
+        "sessions": 47,
+        "sole": {
+          "P1": 17,
+          "P2": 16,
+          "P3": 14
+        },
+        "p1_sole_share_pct": 36.2,
+        "cap_rule": "P1_SCORE_CAP warranted if p1_sole_share_pct > 80"
+      },
+      "w1_nonzero_sessions": 197,
+      "band_shares_current": {
+        "stable": 78.9,
+        "watch": 13.0,
+        "elevated": 4.7,
+        "breaking": 3.4
+      },
+      "soft_gates": [],
+      "band_grid": [
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            15.0,
+            40.0,
+            60.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 68.9,
+            "watch": 19.6,
+            "elevated": 6.4,
+            "breaking": 5.1
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            15.0,
+            40.0,
+            65.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 68.9,
+            "watch": 19.6,
+            "elevated": 8.1,
+            "breaking": 3.4
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            15.0,
+            40.0,
+            70.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 68.9,
+            "watch": 19.6,
+            "elevated": 10.3,
+            "breaking": 1.2
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            15.0,
+            50.0,
+            60.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
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+            "watch": 23.0,
+            "elevated": 2.9,
+            "breaking": 5.1
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
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+          ],
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+            "breaking": 3.4
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            15.0,
+            50.0,
+            70.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 68.9,
+            "watch": 23.0,
+            "elevated": 6.9,
+            "breaking": 1.2
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
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+            40.0,
+            60.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
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+            "watch": 9.6,
+            "elevated": 6.4,
+            "breaking": 5.1
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            20.0,
+            40.0,
+            65.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 78.9,
+            "watch": 9.6,
+            "elevated": 8.1,
+            "breaking": 3.4
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            20.0,
+            40.0,
+            70.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 78.9,
+            "watch": 9.6,
+            "elevated": 10.3,
+            "breaking": 1.2
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            20.0,
+            50.0,
+            60.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 78.9,
+            "watch": 13.0,
+            "elevated": 2.9,
+            "breaking": 5.1
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            20.0,
+            50.0,
+            65.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 78.9,
+            "watch": 13.0,
+            "elevated": 4.7,
+            "breaking": 3.4
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            20.0,
+            50.0,
+            70.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 78.9,
+            "watch": 13.0,
+            "elevated": 6.9,
+            "breaking": 1.2
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            25.0,
+            40.0,
+            60.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 82.1,
+            "watch": 6.4,
+            "elevated": 6.4,
+            "breaking": 5.1
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            25.0,
+            40.0,
+            65.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 82.1,
+            "watch": 6.4,
+            "elevated": 8.1,
+            "breaking": 3.4
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            25.0,
+            40.0,
+            70.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 82.1,
+            "watch": 6.4,
+            "elevated": 10.3,
+            "breaking": 1.2
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            25.0,
+            50.0,
+            60.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 82.1,
+            "watch": 9.8,
+            "elevated": 2.9,
+            "breaking": 5.1
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            25.0,
+            50.0,
+            65.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 82.1,
+            "watch": 9.8,
+            "elevated": 4.7,
+            "breaking": 3.4
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            25.0,
+            50.0,
+            70.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 82.1,
+            "watch": 9.8,
+            "elevated": 6.9,
+            "breaking": 1.2
+          }
+        }
+      ]
+    },
+    "v4-vix-only": {
+      "label": "v4-vix-only",
+      "sessions": 408,
+      "state": {
+        "avg": 16.64,
+        "median": 8.35,
+        "p80": 28.6,
+        "p90": 61.59,
+        "max": 86.6,
+        "scored": 408
+      },
+      "warning_avg": 14.88,
+      "saturation_census": {
+        "p3_pegged": 0,
+        "p2_pegged": 0,
+        "v1_pegged": 0,
+        "p1_pegged": 46
+      },
+      "price_argmax_sole": {
+        "P1": 71,
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+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 68.9,
+            "watch": 23.0,
+            "elevated": 6.9,
+            "breaking": 1.2
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            20.0,
+            40.0,
+            60.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 78.9,
+            "watch": 9.6,
+            "elevated": 6.4,
+            "breaking": 5.1
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            20.0,
+            40.0,
+            65.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 78.9,
+            "watch": 9.6,
+            "elevated": 8.1,
+            "breaking": 3.4
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            20.0,
+            40.0,
+            70.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 78.9,
+            "watch": 9.6,
+            "elevated": 10.3,
+            "breaking": 1.2
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            20.0,
+            50.0,
+            60.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 78.9,
+            "watch": 13.0,
+            "elevated": 2.9,
+            "breaking": 5.1
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            20.0,
+            50.0,
+            65.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 78.9,
+            "watch": 13.0,
+            "elevated": 4.7,
+            "breaking": 3.4
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            20.0,
+            50.0,
+            70.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 78.9,
+            "watch": 13.0,
+            "elevated": 6.9,
+            "breaking": 1.2
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            25.0,
+            40.0,
+            60.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 82.1,
+            "watch": 6.4,
+            "elevated": 6.4,
+            "breaking": 5.1
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            25.0,
+            40.0,
+            65.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 82.1,
+            "watch": 6.4,
+            "elevated": 8.1,
+            "breaking": 3.4
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            25.0,
+            40.0,
+            70.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 82.1,
+            "watch": 6.4,
+            "elevated": 10.3,
+            "breaking": 1.2
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            25.0,
+            50.0,
+            60.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 82.1,
+            "watch": 9.8,
+            "elevated": 2.9,
+            "breaking": 5.1
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            25.0,
+            50.0,
+            65.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 82.1,
+            "watch": 9.8,
+            "elevated": 4.7,
+            "breaking": 3.4
+          }
+        },
+        {
+          "bands": [
+            25.0,
+            50.0,
+            70.0
+          ],
+          "shares": {
+            "stable": 82.1,
+            "watch": 9.8,
+            "elevated": 6.9,
+            "breaking": 1.2
+          }
+        }
+      ]
+    }
+  },
+  "scenarios": {
+    "note": "pillar arithmetic on explicit sensor scores; State weights unchanged",
+    "vix_a": [
+      {
+        "scenario": "S1  ordinary tape",
+        "P1": 0.0,
+        "P2": 0.0,
+        "P3": 7.5,
+        "price": 7.5,
+        "breadth": 0.0,
+        "C1": 0.0,
+        "V1": 4.0,
+        "state": 3.6
+      },
+      {
+        "scenario": "S2  10% correction, calm credit",
+        "P1": 30.0,
+        "P2": 0.0,
+        "P3": 31.25,
+        "price": 31.25,
+        "breadth": 62.5,
+        "C1": 0.0,
+        "V1": 34.4,
+        "state": 33.28
+      },
+      {
+        "scenario": "S3a 2022-style, calm credit, no death cross",
+        "P1": 87.5,
+        "P2": 0.0,
+        "P3": 90.83,
+        "price": 90.83,
+        "breadth": 100.0,
+        "C1": 0.0,
+        "V1": 60.0,
+        "state": 70.33
+      },
+      {
+        "scenario": "S3b 2022-style, calm credit, death cross",
+        "P1": 87.5,
+        "P2": 100.0,
+        "P3": 90.83,
+        "price": 100.0,
+        "breadth": 100.0,
+        "C1": 0.0,
+        "V1": 60.0,
+        "state": 74.0
+      },
+      {
+        "scenario": "S4  credit event on top",
+        "P1": 100.0,
+        "P2": 100.0,
+        "P3": 100.0,
+        "price": 100.0,
+        "breadth": 100.0,
+        "C1": 75.0,
+        "V1": 86.67,
+        "state": 93.0
+      },
+      {
+        "scenario": "S5  March 2020, everything pegged",
+        "P1": 100.0,
+        "P2": 100.0,
+        "P3": 100.0,
+        "price": 100.0,
+        "breadth": 100.0,
+        "C1": 100.0,
+        "V1": 100.0,
+        "state": 100.0
+      }
+    ]
+  },
+  "diagnostics": {
+    "vix_top10": [
+      [
+        "2025-04-08",
+        52.33
+      ],
+      [
+        "2025-04-07",
+        46.98
+      ],
+      [
+        "2025-04-04",
+        45.31
+      ],
+      [
+        "2025-04-10",
+        40.72
+      ],
+      [
+        "2024-08-05",
+        38.57
+      ],
+      [
+        "2025-04-11",
+        37.56
+      ],
+      [
+        "2025-04-21",
+        33.82
+      ],
+      [
+        "2025-04-09",
+        33.62
+      ],
+      [
+        "2025-04-16",
+        32.64
+      ],
+      [
+        "2026-03-27",
+        31.05
+      ]
+    ],
+    "candidate_anchors": {
+      "P5_VIX_ANCHORS_A": [
+        [
+          15.0,
+          0.0
+        ],
+        [
+          20.0,
+          20.0
+        ],
+        [
+          25.0,
+          38.0
+        ],
+        [
+          30.0,
+          55.0
+        ],
+        [
+          40.0,
+          80.0
+        ],
+        [
+          55.0,
+          100.0
+        ]
+      ],
+      "P5_VIX_ANCHORS_B": [
+        [
+          15.0,
+          0.0
+        ],
+        [
+          20.0,
+          25.0
+        ],
+        [
+          25.0,
+          45.0
+        ],
+        [
+          30.0,
+          65.0
+        ],
+        [
+          40.0,
+          85.0
+        ],
+        [
+          55.0,
+          100.0
+        ]
+      ],
+      "P1_TREND_BREAK_ANCHORS": [
+        [
+          0.0,
+          20.0
+        ],
+        [
+          3.0,
+          35.0
+        ],
+        [
+          8.0,
+          55.0
+        ],
+        [
+          15.0,
+          75.0
+        ],
+        [
+          25.0,
+          100.0
+        ]
+      ]
+    }
+  },
+  "v4_recommendation": {
+    "state_bands_candidate": [
+      20.0,
+      50.0,
+      65.0
+    ],
+    "provisional": false,
+    "note": "confirm against band_grid + scenarios before shipping"
+  }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/reports/regime-monitor-v4-calibration-20260808-224631.md b/reports/regime-monitor-v4-calibration-20260808-224631.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..8b7f83b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/reports/regime-monitor-v4-calibration-20260808-224631.md
@@ -0,0 +1,88 @@
+# Regime Monitor v4 calibration
+
+Generated 2026-08-08T22:46:31 at `ec1b0ac`, 2024-12-05 → 2026-07-24.
+
+Source hashes (sha256, first 16):
+
+- `app/services/regime_monitor_service.py` — `c54e66217872d5de`
+- `app/services/breadth_service.py` — `b9ceb93d68d8f01b`
+- `scripts/run_regime_monitor_calibration.py` — `6e1c58c1b952087d`
+
+## Hard gates
+
+| gate | expected | measured | |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| symbols_fetched | 33 | 33 | ok |
+| per_symbol_warmup_252_bars | all | 33 | ok |
+| per_symbol_reaches_last_session | 2026-07-24 | 33 | ok |
+| breadth_counts_full_basket | 30 | 408/408 sessions | ok |
+| sessions_scored | 408 | 408 | ok |
+| last_scored_date | 2026-07-24 | 2026-07-24 | ok |
+| w1_available_every_session | 408 | 408 | ok |
+| state_coverage_100_every_row | 0 | 0 | ok |
+| no_stale_inputs | 0 | 0 | ok |
+| first_scored_date | 2024-12-05 | 2024-12-05 | ok |
+| state_v4_le_v3_every_row | 0 | 0 | ok |
+
+## Distributions
+
+| variant | avg | median | p80 | p90 | max |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| v2_reconstruction | 22.68 | 16.15 | 35.1 | 65.63 | 91.2 |
+| v2_reconstruction_oas400 | 26.54 | 18.65 | 42.52 | 81.3 | 100.0 |
+| v3 | 18.13 | 9.1 | 31.36 | 65.0 | 87.4 |
+| v4 | 14.78 | 8.35 | 21.7 | 43.63 | 83.5 |
+| v4-vix-only | 16.64 | 8.35 | 28.6 | 61.59 | 86.6 |
+| v4-p1-only | 16.28 | 9.1 | 25.44 | 45.63 | 84.0 |
+| v4-vix-b | 15.24 | 8.55 | 22.62 | 44.33 | 83.6 |
+| v4-p1-capped | 14.73 | 8.35 | 21.7 | 43.63 | 80.1 |
+
+## Saturation census (sessions pegged at 100)
+
+| variant | P1 | P2 | P3 | V1 |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| v2_reconstruction | 46 | 0 | 39 | 14 |
+| v2_reconstruction_oas400 | 46 | 0 | 39 | 14 |
+| v3 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
+| v4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
+| v4-vix-only | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
+| v4-p1-only | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
+| v4-vix-b | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
+| v4-p1-capped | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
+
+## Reproduction gates — v2_reconstruction
+
+| figure | published | measured | |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| v2_state_avg | 22.6 | 22.68 | ok |
+| v2_state_p80 | 35.1 | 35.1 | ok |
+| v2_state_max | 91.2 | 91.2 | ok |
+| v2_p3_pegged | 39 | 39 | ok |
+| w1_live_sessions | 108 | 108 | ok |
+
+## Reproduction gates — v3
+
+| figure | published | measured | |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| v3_state_max | 87.4 | 87.4 | ok |
+
+## v4 band-share grid (watch 20 / elevated 50)
+
+| breaking | stable | watch | elevated | breaking |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 60 | 78.9 | 13.0 | 2.9 | 5.1 |
+| 65 | 78.9 | 13.0 | 4.7 | 3.4 |
+| 70 | 78.9 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 1.2 |
+
+## Scenarios (pillar arithmetic, explicit sensor scores)
+
+| scenario | price | breadth | C1 | V1 | State |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| S1  ordinary tape | 7.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | **3.6** |
+| S2  10% correction, calm credit | 31.25 | 62.5 | 0.0 | 34.4 | **33.28** |
+| S3a 2022-style, calm credit, no death cross | 90.83 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 60.0 | **70.33** |
+| S3b 2022-style, calm credit, death cross | 100.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 60.0 | **74.0** |
+| S4  credit event on top | 100.0 | 100.0 | 75.0 | 86.67 | **93.0** |
+| S5  March 2020, everything pegged | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | **100.0** |
+
+Recommendation: `{'state_bands_candidate': [20.0, 50.0, 65.0], 'provisional': False, 'note': 'confirm against band_grid + scenarios before shipping'}`