feat: breadth-divergence early-warning indicator + event study

Adds a leading-by-construction candidate and the harness to measure whether it
actually leads regime breaks, before any of it earns weight in the live index.

- breadth_service: % of the stored universe above its own 200-DMA + a divergence
  score (benchmark price up while breadth falls, nudged by low breadth). Genuinely
  leading because it keys on divergence, not level. Not wired into the live score.
- event_study_service: detect drawdown events on the benchmark, then measure each
  indicator's median lead time (event-centered) and precision/recall vs. the base
  rate (signal-centered). Compares breadth-divergence against the deterministic
  coincident price composite (reuses the regime price sub-scores). Price/breadth
  only — reproducible, no LLM/FRED.
- Manual "Event Study" job (Admin → Jobs), GET /regime/event-study, and an
  inline early-warning panel on the Regime tab with an honest small-sample caveat.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

frontend/src/api/regime.ts

@@ -1,10 +1,19 @@
 import apiClient from './client';
-import type { RegimeMonitor, RegimeConfig, RegimeFundamentals } from '../lib/types';
+import type {
+  RegimeMonitor,
+  RegimeConfig,
+  RegimeFundamentals,
+  EventStudyReport,
+} from '../lib/types';
 
 export function getRegimeMonitor() {
   return apiClient.get<RegimeMonitor>('regime/monitor').then((r) => r.data);
 }
 
+export function getEventStudy() {
+  return apiClient.get<EventStudyReport | null>('regime/event-study').then((r) => r.data);
+}
+
 export function getRegimeConfig() {
   return apiClient.get<RegimeConfig>('regime/config').then((r) => r.data);
 }

frontend/src/lib/types.ts

@@ -311,6 +311,38 @@ export interface RegimeConfig {
   fundamental_staleness_days: number;
 }
 
+// Event study — measured lead time of early-warning indicators vs. drawdowns
+export interface EventStudyLeadStats {
+  median_lead_days: number | null;
+  events_with_signal: number;
+  events_total: number;
+  mean_path: { rel_day: number; value: number }[];
+  signal: {
+    base_rate: number;
+    horizon_days: number;
+    rows: { threshold: number; precision: number | null; recall: number | null; alarms: number }[];
+  };
+}
+
+export interface EventStudyReport {
+  available: boolean;
+  reason?: string;
+  generated_at?: string;
+  params?: {
+    benchmark: string;
+    event_threshold_pct: number;
+    horizon_days: number;
+    warn_threshold: number;
+  };
+  events?: { date: string; index: number; depth_pct: number }[];
+  indicators?: {
+    breadth_divergence: EventStudyLeadStats;
+    coincident_price: EventStudyLeadStats;
+  };
+  lead_delta_days?: number | null;
+  recent_breadth?: { date: string; breadth: number; divergence: number | null }[];
+}
+
 export interface AlertConfig {
   enabled: boolean;
   telegram_chat_id: string;

frontend/src/pages/RegimePage.tsx

@@ -13,6 +13,7 @@ import {
   getRegimeFundamentals,
   updateRegimeFundamentals,
   refreshRegimeFundamentals,
+  getEventStudy,
 } from '../api/regime';
 import type {
   RegimeBand,
@@ -20,6 +21,8 @@ import type {
   RegimeSignal,
   RegimeConfig,
   RegimeFundamentals,
+  EventStudyReport,
+  EventStudyLeadStats,
 } from '../lib/types';
 
 const BAND_STYLES: Record<RegimeBand, { text: string; bar: string; ring: string; label: string }> = {
@@ -266,6 +269,101 @@ function WeightsEditor({
   );
 }
 
+function Sparkline({ values, color = '#60a5fa', height = 28 }: { values: number[]; color?: string; height?: number }) {
+  if (values.length < 2) return null;
+  const min = Math.min(...values);
+  const max = Math.max(...values);
+  const range = max - min || 1;
+  const w = 120;
+  const pts = values
+    .map((v, i) => `${(i / (values.length - 1)) * w},${height - ((v - min) / range) * height}`)
+    .join(' ');
+  return (
+    <svg width={w} height={height}>
+      <polyline points={pts} fill="none" stroke={color} strokeWidth={1.5} />
+    </svg>
+  );
+}
+
+function LeadStat({ label, stats, highlight }: { label: string; stats: EventStudyLeadStats; highlight?: boolean }) {
+  return (
+    <div className={`rounded-lg border px-3 py-2 ${highlight ? 'border-blue-400/30 bg-blue-400/[0.06]' : 'border-white/[0.06] bg-white/[0.02]'}`}>
+      <div className="text-xs text-gray-500">{label}</div>
+      <div className="mt-0.5 text-lg font-semibold text-gray-200">
+        {stats.median_lead_days != null ? `${stats.median_lead_days}d lead` : 'no signal'}
+      </div>
+      <div className="text-[11px] text-gray-600">
+        {stats.events_with_signal}/{stats.events_total} events warned
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
+function EventStudyBody({ report }: { report: EventStudyReport }) {
+  const bd = report.indicators!.breadth_divergence;
+  const cd = report.indicators!.coincident_price;
+  const recent = report.recent_breadth ?? [];
+  const breadthVals = recent.map((r) => r.breadth);
+  const divVals = recent.map((r) => r.divergence ?? 0);
+  const lead = report.lead_delta_days;
+  return (
+    <div className="space-y-4">
+      <p className="text-xs text-gray-500">
+        {report.events?.length ?? 0} drawdown events (≥{report.params?.event_threshold_pct}%) on{' '}
+        {report.params?.benchmark} over ~5y. Higher median lead = earlier warning.
+      </p>
+      <div className="grid grid-cols-1 gap-2 sm:grid-cols-2">
+        <LeadStat label="Breadth divergence (leading candidate)" stats={bd} highlight={lead != null && lead > 0} />
+        <LeadStat label="Coincident price composite (baseline)" stats={cd} />
+      </div>
+      {lead != null && (
+        <p className="text-xs text-gray-400">
+          Breadth divergence warned a median{' '}
+          <span className={`font-medium ${lead > 0 ? 'text-emerald-400' : 'text-amber-400'}`}>
+            {lead > 0 ? '+' : ''}{lead} days
+          </span>{' '}
+          {lead >= 0 ? 'earlier' : 'later'} than the coincident baseline.
+        </p>
+      )}
+      {recent.length > 1 && (
+        <div className="flex flex-wrap items-end gap-6">
+          <div>
+            <div className="text-[11px] text-gray-500">Breadth (% &gt; 200d), last 90d</div>
+            <Sparkline values={breadthVals} color="#34d399" />
+            <div className="num text-xs text-gray-400">{breadthVals[breadthVals.length - 1]?.toFixed(0)}%</div>
+          </div>
+          <div>
+            <div className="text-[11px] text-gray-500">Divergence (fragility), last 90d</div>
+            <Sparkline values={divVals} color="#fb923c" />
+            <div className="num text-xs text-gray-400">{divVals[divVals.length - 1]?.toFixed(0)}</div>
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      )}
+      <p className="text-[11px] leading-relaxed text-gray-600">
+        Base rate {Math.round(bd.signal.base_rate * 100)}% · horizon {bd.signal.horizon_days}d. Few events in
+        5y → noisy; treat lead time as an order of magnitude and don&apos;t overfit thresholds. Not yet wired
+        into the live score.
+      </p>
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
+function EventStudyPanel() {
+  const study = useQuery({ queryKey: ['regime', 'event-study'], queryFn: getEventStudy });
+  return (
+    <Disclosure summary="Early-warning study — measured lead time vs. drawdowns">
+      {study.isLoading && <SkeletonCard className="h-24" />}
+      {study.data === null && (
+        <Callout variant="empty">Not run yet — trigger the “Event Study” job in Admin → Jobs.</Callout>
+      )}
+      {study.data && !study.data.available && (
+        <Callout variant="warning">{study.data.reason ?? 'No data'}</Callout>
+      )}
+      {study.data && study.data.available && <EventStudyBody report={study.data} />}
+    </Disclosure>
+  );
+}
+
 function AdminControls() {
   const qc = useQueryClient();
   const fundamentals = useQuery({ queryKey: ['regime', 'fundamentals'], queryFn: getRegimeFundamentals });
@@ -348,6 +446,8 @@ export default function RegimePage() {
         </>
       )}
 
+      <EventStudyPanel />
+
       {isAdmin && <AdminControls />}
     </div>
   );