fix: only count matured setups in the live track record
The outcome stats were dominated by quick stop-outs: near stops resolve as losses within days while far targets take weeks, so a young sample (mostly pending, 0 expired) skewed sharply negative (e.g. 13.8% hit / -0.46R vs the backtest's 35.8% / +0.18R) — a maturation artifact, not a real result. get_performance_stats now counts only setups whose full ~30-day window has elapsed (_MATURITY_DAYS), so winners had as long as losers (unbiased, and comparable to the backtest). A new `maturing` count reports the younger setups held back. The Track Record UI relabels "Evaluated" -> "Matured", shows the maturing count, and explains the window in the empty state + methodology note. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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@@ -153,6 +153,7 @@ export interface OutcomeBucketStats {
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export interface PerformanceStats {
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overall: OutcomeBucketStats;
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pending: number;
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maturing: number;
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by_direction: Record<string, OutcomeBucketStats>;
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by_action: Record<string, OutcomeBucketStats>;
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by_confidence: Record<string, OutcomeBucketStats>;
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