feat: sharpen the event study — more events, fair baseline, per-event view

The first run gave only 2 events (N=2 is anecdote, not evidence) and an unfairly
weak coincident baseline, so the +42d lead couldn't be trusted. This makes the
measurement meaningful:

- More, cleaner events: default drawdown threshold 15%→10%, and dedup switched
  from "recover to the high" to a rising-edge + cooldown (40d), so distinct
  drawdowns each register instead of merging.
- Fair comparison: each indicator now warns at its OWN 80th percentile instead of
  a shared absolute 60, removing the artifact that muted the coincident baseline.
- Per-event breakdown (date · depth · breadth lead · coincident lead) so a median
  over a tiny sample can't hide an apples-to-oranges comparison — you see whether
  both warned on the same drawdown.
- Surface precision/recall (best row) + base rate per indicator — the honest edge
  read, not just lead time.

Re-run the Event Study job to regenerate the cached report in the new shape.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

frontend/src/pages/RegimePage.tsx

@@ -23,6 +23,7 @@ import type {
   RegimeFundamentals,
   EventStudyReport,
   EventStudyLeadStats,
+  EventStudyPerEvent,
 } from '../lib/types';
 
 const BAND_STYLES: Record<RegimeBand, { text: string; bar: string; ring: string; label: string }> = {
@@ -285,7 +286,22 @@ function Sparkline({ values, color = '#60a5fa', height = 28 }: { values: number[
   );
 }
 
+function pctLabel(v: number | null): string {
+  return v == null ? '—' : `${Math.round(v * 100)}%`;
+}
+
+function leadLabel(v: number | null): string {
+  return v == null ? 'missed' : `${v}d`;
+}
+
+function bestPr(stats: EventStudyLeadStats) {
+  const rows = stats.signal.rows.filter((r) => r.precision != null && r.recall != null && r.recall > 0);
+  if (!rows.length) return null;
+  return rows.reduce((a, b) => ((b.precision ?? 0) > (a.precision ?? 0) ? b : a));
+}
+
 function LeadStat({ label, stats, highlight }: { label: string; stats: EventStudyLeadStats; highlight?: boolean }) {
+  const pr = bestPr(stats);
   return (
     <div className={`rounded-lg border px-3 py-2 ${highlight ? 'border-blue-400/30 bg-blue-400/[0.06]' : 'border-white/[0.06] bg-white/[0.02]'}`}>
       <div className="text-xs text-gray-500">{label}</div>
@@ -293,8 +309,46 @@ function LeadStat({ label, stats, highlight }: { label: string; stats: EventStud
         {stats.median_lead_days != null ? `${stats.median_lead_days}d lead` : 'no signal'}
       </div>
       <div className="text-[11px] text-gray-600">
-        {stats.events_with_signal}/{stats.events_total} events warned
+        {stats.events_with_signal}/{stats.events_total} warned
+        {stats.warn_threshold != null ? ` · warn ≥ ${Math.round(stats.warn_threshold)}` : ''}
       </div>
+      {pr && (
+        <div className="text-[11px] text-gray-600">
+          best P {pctLabel(pr.precision)} · R {pctLabel(pr.recall)} @ {pr.threshold}
+        </div>
+      )}
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
+function PerEventTable({ rows }: { rows: EventStudyPerEvent[] }) {
+  return (
+    <div className="overflow-x-auto rounded-lg border border-white/[0.06]">
+      <table className="w-full text-xs">
+        <thead>
+          <tr className="border-b border-white/[0.06] text-left uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-500">
+            <th className="px-3 py-2 font-medium">Drawdown</th>
+            <th className="px-3 py-2 text-right font-medium">Depth</th>
+            <th className="px-3 py-2 text-right font-medium">Breadth lead</th>
+            <th className="px-3 py-2 text-right font-medium">Coincident lead</th>
+          </tr>
+        </thead>
+        <tbody>
+          {rows.map((e) => {
+            const earlier = e.breadth_lead != null && (e.coincident_lead == null || e.breadth_lead > e.coincident_lead);
+            return (
+              <tr key={e.date} className="border-b border-white/[0.03] last:border-0">
+                <td className="px-3 py-2 num text-gray-300">{e.date}</td>
+                <td className="px-3 py-2 text-right num text-gray-400">{e.depth_pct}%</td>
+                <td className={`px-3 py-2 text-right num ${earlier ? 'text-emerald-400' : 'text-gray-300'}`}>
+                  {leadLabel(e.breadth_lead)}
+                </td>
+                <td className="px-3 py-2 text-right num text-gray-300">{leadLabel(e.coincident_lead)}</td>
+              </tr>
+            );
+          })}
+        </tbody>
+      </table>
     </div>
   );
 }
@@ -325,6 +379,12 @@ function EventStudyBody({ report }: { report: EventStudyReport }) {
           {lead >= 0 ? 'earlier' : 'later'} than the coincident baseline.
         </p>
       )}
+      {report.per_event && report.per_event.length > 0 && (
+        <div className="space-y-1.5">
+          <div className="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-500">Per drawdown (same events, both indicators)</div>
+          <PerEventTable rows={report.per_event} />
+        </div>
+      )}
       {recent.length > 1 && (
         <div className="flex flex-wrap items-end gap-6">
           <div>