research: volatility-standardized residual momentum screen, failed
Strategy review (2026-09-08) and a frozen, paired signal screen of residual 12-1 momentum divided by its formation-window residual volatility. Across 73 non-overlapping windows the normalized signal's IC is 0.0128 against 0.0145 for the matched control, below the frozen 0.03 floor, so the conditional portfolio replay was not run and nothing in production changes. Code-review fixes to the runner, before first commit: a missing OHLC price stops the run instead of reading as 0; the snapshot connection is closed explicitly (on Windows it otherwise kept the file locked); the paired-coverage check raises instead of asserting, so python -O cannot strip it; and source files are recorded as git blob ids with line endings normalized, so the report can be checked against history. The report was regenerated with the fixed runner; its screen section is byte-identical to the original run. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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# Backtest report index
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The 2026-09-08 residual-normalization signal experiment is preserved in
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`residual-normalization-20260908.json` and its generated Markdown table.
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The JSON includes every retained window, coverage, paired uncertainty, the
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mechanical verdict, the snapshot hash, and the git blob ids of the source it
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ran. The screen failed its frozen IC floor, so no portfolio replay was run. Interpretation:
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[`residual-normalization-findings.md`](../docs/research/residual-normalization-findings.md).
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The 2026-10-09 breakeven-stop exit test is preserved in
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`backtest-20261009-breakeven-stop.json` (regenerated 2026-10-10 after a code
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review, with no graded number changed). Its `breakeven_stop_study` section holds
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