Add activation thresholds: qualified-signal defaults and views

Admin-configurable thresholds (min R:R, default 2.0; min confidence,
default 70%) defining what counts as an actionable signal:

- Admin Settings: new Activation Thresholds panel
  (GET/PUT /admin/settings/activation)
- GET /trades/activation exposes values to all users with access
- Signals/Setups: filters initialize from activation values
- Track Record: "Qualified signals only" toggle (default on) via
  min_rr/min_confidence params on /trades/performance; the
  confidence breakdown always covers the full population so the
  thresholds can be validated against outcomes
- Dashboard: "Qualified" metric and qualified-first Top Setups
- Outcome evaluator unchanged: every setup is still evaluated

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

frontend/src/components/signals/SetupsPanel.tsx

@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 import { useMemo, useState } from 'react';
 import { useMutation, useQueryClient } from '@tanstack/react-query';
+import { useActivation } from '../../hooks/useActivation';
 import { useTrades } from '../../hooks/useTrades';
 import { TradeTable, type SortColumn, type SortDirection, computeTradeAnalysis } from '../scanner/TradeTable';
 import { SkeletonTable } from '../ui/Skeleton';
@@ -94,16 +95,22 @@ function sortTrades(
 
 export function SetupsPanel() {
   const { data: trades, isLoading, isError, error } = useTrades();
+  const activation = useActivation();
   const queryClient = useQueryClient();
   const toast = useToast();
 
-  const [minRR, setMinRR] = useState(0);
+  // null = user hasn't touched the filter; falls back to admin-configured
+  // activation thresholds once loaded
+  const [minRROverride, setMinRROverride] = useState<number | null>(null);
+  const [minConfidenceOverride, setMinConfidenceOverride] = useState<number | null>(null);
   const [directionFilter, setDirectionFilter] = useState<DirectionFilter>('both');
-  const [minConfidence, setMinConfidence] = useState(0);
   const [actionFilter, setActionFilter] = useState<ActionFilter>('all');
   const [sortColumn, setSortColumn] = useState<SortColumn>('rr_ratio');
   const [sortDirection, setSortDirection] = useState<SortDirection>('desc');
 
+  const minRR = minRROverride ?? activation.data?.min_rr ?? 0;
+  const minConfidence = minConfidenceOverride ?? activation.data?.min_confidence ?? 0;
+
   const scanMutation = useMutation({
     mutationFn: () => triggerJob('rr_scanner'),
     onSuccess: () => {
@@ -143,7 +150,7 @@ export function SetupsPanel() {
               min={0}
               step={0.1}
               value={minRR}
-              onChange={(e) => setMinRR(Number(e.target.value) || 0)}
+              onChange={(e) => setMinRROverride(Number(e.target.value) || 0)}
               className="w-20"
             />
           </div>
@@ -167,7 +174,7 @@ export function SetupsPanel() {
             max={100}
             step={1}
             value={minConfidence}
-            onChange={(e) => setMinConfidence(Number(e.target.value) || 0)}
+            onChange={(e) => setMinConfidenceOverride(Number(e.target.value) || 0)}
             className="w-24"
           />
         </Field>

frontend/src/components/signals/TrackRecordPanel.tsx

@@ -1,4 +1,6 @@
+import { useState } from 'react';
 import { useMutation, useQueryClient } from '@tanstack/react-query';
+import { useActivation } from '../../hooks/useActivation';
 import { usePerformance } from '../../hooks/usePerformance';
 import { triggerJob } from '../../api/admin';
 import { Button } from '../ui/Button';
@@ -89,7 +91,14 @@ function BreakdownTable({ rows, labelHeader, mapLabel }: {
 }
 
 export function TrackRecordPanel() {
-  const { data, isLoading, isError, error } = usePerformance();
+  const [qualifiedOnly, setQualifiedOnly] = useState(true);
+  const activation = useActivation();
+
+  const params = qualifiedOnly && activation.data
+    ? { min_rr: activation.data.min_rr, min_confidence: activation.data.min_confidence }
+    : undefined;
+
+  const { data, isLoading, isError, error } = usePerformance(params);
   const queryClient = useQueryClient();
   const toast = useToast();
 
@@ -106,6 +115,26 @@ export function TrackRecordPanel() {
 
   return (
     <div className="space-y-6">
+      <div className="glass-sm flex flex-wrap items-center justify-between gap-3 px-4 py-3">
+        <label className="flex cursor-pointer items-center gap-2.5 text-sm text-gray-300">
+          <input
+            type="checkbox"
+            checked={qualifiedOnly}
+            onChange={(e) => setQualifiedOnly(e.target.checked)}
+            className="h-4 w-4 cursor-pointer accent-blue-400"
+          />
+          <span>
+            Qualified signals only
+            {activation.data && (
+              <span className="num ml-2 text-xs text-gray-500">
+                R:R ≥ {activation.data.min_rr.toFixed(1)} · conf ≥ {activation.data.min_confidence.toFixed(0)}%
+              </span>
+            )}
+          </span>
+        </label>
+        <p className="text-xs text-gray-500">Confidence breakdown always covers all setups.</p>
+      </div>
+
       <div className="flex items-start justify-between gap-4">
         <Disclosure summary="How outcomes are measured">
           <p className="text-xs text-gray-400">
@@ -138,8 +167,9 @@ export function TrackRecordPanel() {
 
       {data && data.overall.total === 0 && (
         <Callout variant="empty">
-          No evaluated setups yet. Outcomes appear once setups are old enough for their stop or
-          target to be hit — the evaluator runs nightly, or click Evaluate Now.
+          {qualifiedOnly
+            ? 'No evaluated setups meet the activation thresholds yet. Untick "Qualified signals only" to see all evaluated setups, or wait for more outcomes.'
+            : 'No evaluated setups yet. Outcomes appear once setups are old enough for their stop or target to be hit — the evaluator runs nightly, or click Evaluate Now.'}
           {data.pending > 0 && ` ${data.pending} setup${data.pending === 1 ? '' : 's'} pending evaluation.`}
         </Callout>
       )}