Add activation thresholds: qualified-signal defaults and views

Admin-configurable thresholds (min R:R, default 2.0; min confidence,
default 70%) defining what counts as an actionable signal:

- Admin Settings: new Activation Thresholds panel
  (GET/PUT /admin/settings/activation)
- GET /trades/activation exposes values to all users with access
- Signals/Setups: filters initialize from activation values
- Track Record: "Qualified signals only" toggle (default on) via
  min_rr/min_confidence params on /trades/performance; the
  confidence breakdown always covers the full population so the
  thresholds can be validated against outcomes
- Dashboard: "Qualified" metric and qualified-first Top Setups
- Outcome evaluator unchanged: every setup is still evaluated

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

frontend/src/api/activation.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+import apiClient from './client';
+import type { ActivationConfig } from '../lib/types';
+
+export function getActivation() {
+  return apiClient.get<ActivationConfig>('trades/activation').then((r) => r.data);
+}

frontend/src/api/admin.ts

@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 import apiClient from './client';
 import type {
+  ActivationConfig,
   AdminUser,
   PipelineReadiness,
   RecommendationConfig,
@@ -68,6 +69,18 @@ export function updateRecommendationSettings(payload: Partial<RecommendationConf
     .then((r) => r.data);
 }
 
+export function getActivationSettings() {
+  return apiClient
+    .get<ActivationConfig>('admin/settings/activation')
+    .then((r) => r.data);
+}
+
+export function updateActivationSettings(payload: Partial<ActivationConfig>) {
+  return apiClient
+    .put<ActivationConfig>('admin/settings/activation', payload)
+    .then((r) => r.data);
+}
+
 export function getTickerUniverseSetting() {
   return apiClient
     .get<TickerUniverseSetting>('admin/settings/ticker-universe')

frontend/src/api/performance.ts

@@ -1,6 +1,13 @@
 import apiClient from './client';
 import type { PerformanceStats } from '../lib/types';
 
-export function getPerformance() {
-  return apiClient.get<PerformanceStats>('trades/performance').then((r) => r.data);
+export interface PerformanceParams {
+  min_rr?: number;
+  min_confidence?: number;
+}
+
+export function getPerformance(params?: PerformanceParams) {
+  return apiClient
+    .get<PerformanceStats>('trades/performance', { params })
+    .then((r) => r.data);
 }

frontend/src/components/admin/ActivationSettings.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,81 @@
+import { useEffect, useState } from 'react';
+import type { ActivationConfig } from '../../lib/types';
+import { useActivationSettings, useUpdateActivationSettings } from '../../hooks/useAdmin';
+import { SkeletonTable } from '../ui/Skeleton';
+
+const DEFAULTS: ActivationConfig = {
+  min_rr: 2,
+  min_confidence: 70,
+};
+
+export function ActivationSettings() {
+  const { data, isLoading, isError, error } = useActivationSettings();
+  const update = useUpdateActivationSettings();
+
+  const [form, setForm] = useState<ActivationConfig>(DEFAULTS);
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    if (data) setForm(data);
+  }, [data]);
+
+  const onSave = () => {
+    update.mutate(form as unknown as Record<string, number>);
+  };
+
+  const onReset = () => {
+    setForm(DEFAULTS);
+    update.mutate(DEFAULTS as unknown as Record<string, number>);
+  };
+
+  if (isLoading) return <SkeletonTable rows={2} cols={2} />;
+  if (isError) return <p className="text-sm text-red-400">{(error as Error)?.message || 'Failed to load activation thresholds'}</p>;
+
+  return (
+    <div className="glass p-5 space-y-4">
+      <div>
+        <h3 className="text-sm font-semibold text-gray-200">Activation Thresholds</h3>
+        <p className="mt-1 text-xs text-gray-500">
+          What counts as a signal worth acting on. Used as the default Signals filters, the
+          Dashboard's qualified-setup metrics, and the Track Record's "qualified only" view.
+          All setups are still evaluated regardless, so these thresholds can be validated
+          against the confidence breakdown.
+        </p>
+      </div>
+
+      <div className="grid gap-4 md:grid-cols-2">
+        <label className="block space-y-1">
+          <span className="text-xs text-gray-400">Min Risk:Reward (1 : x)</span>
+          <input
+            type="number"
+            min={0}
+            step={0.1}
+            value={form.min_rr}
+            onChange={(e) => setForm((prev) => ({ ...prev, min_rr: Number(e.target.value) }))}
+            className="w-full input-glass px-3 py-2 text-sm"
+          />
+        </label>
+        <label className="block space-y-1">
+          <span className="text-xs text-gray-400">Min Confidence (%)</span>
+          <input
+            type="number"
+            min={0}
+            max={100}
+            step={1}
+            value={form.min_confidence}
+            onChange={(e) => setForm((prev) => ({ ...prev, min_confidence: Number(e.target.value) }))}
+            className="w-full input-glass px-3 py-2 text-sm"
+          />
+        </label>
+      </div>
+
+      <div className="flex items-center gap-2">
+        <button className="btn-primary px-4 py-2 text-sm" onClick={onSave} disabled={update.isPending}>
+          {update.isPending ? 'Saving…' : 'Save Thresholds'}
+        </button>
+        <button className="px-4 py-2 text-sm rounded border border-white/[0.1] text-gray-300 hover:text-white" onClick={onReset} disabled={update.isPending}>
+          Reset to Defaults
+        </button>
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  );
+}

frontend/src/components/signals/SetupsPanel.tsx

@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 import { useMemo, useState } from 'react';
 import { useMutation, useQueryClient } from '@tanstack/react-query';
+import { useActivation } from '../../hooks/useActivation';
 import { useTrades } from '../../hooks/useTrades';
 import { TradeTable, type SortColumn, type SortDirection, computeTradeAnalysis } from '../scanner/TradeTable';
 import { SkeletonTable } from '../ui/Skeleton';
@@ -94,16 +95,22 @@ function sortTrades(
 
 export function SetupsPanel() {
   const { data: trades, isLoading, isError, error } = useTrades();
+  const activation = useActivation();
   const queryClient = useQueryClient();
   const toast = useToast();
 
-  const [minRR, setMinRR] = useState(0);
+  // null = user hasn't touched the filter; falls back to admin-configured
+  // activation thresholds once loaded
+  const [minRROverride, setMinRROverride] = useState<number | null>(null);
+  const [minConfidenceOverride, setMinConfidenceOverride] = useState<number | null>(null);
   const [directionFilter, setDirectionFilter] = useState<DirectionFilter>('both');
-  const [minConfidence, setMinConfidence] = useState(0);
   const [actionFilter, setActionFilter] = useState<ActionFilter>('all');
   const [sortColumn, setSortColumn] = useState<SortColumn>('rr_ratio');
   const [sortDirection, setSortDirection] = useState<SortDirection>('desc');
 
+  const minRR = minRROverride ?? activation.data?.min_rr ?? 0;
+  const minConfidence = minConfidenceOverride ?? activation.data?.min_confidence ?? 0;
+
   const scanMutation = useMutation({
     mutationFn: () => triggerJob('rr_scanner'),
     onSuccess: () => {
@@ -143,7 +150,7 @@ export function SetupsPanel() {
               min={0}
               step={0.1}
               value={minRR}
-              onChange={(e) => setMinRR(Number(e.target.value) || 0)}
+              onChange={(e) => setMinRROverride(Number(e.target.value) || 0)}
               className="w-20"
             />
           </div>
@@ -167,7 +174,7 @@ export function SetupsPanel() {
             max={100}
             step={1}
             value={minConfidence}
-            onChange={(e) => setMinConfidence(Number(e.target.value) || 0)}
+            onChange={(e) => setMinConfidenceOverride(Number(e.target.value) || 0)}
             className="w-24"
           />
         </Field>

frontend/src/components/signals/TrackRecordPanel.tsx

@@ -1,4 +1,6 @@
+import { useState } from 'react';
 import { useMutation, useQueryClient } from '@tanstack/react-query';
+import { useActivation } from '../../hooks/useActivation';
 import { usePerformance } from '../../hooks/usePerformance';
 import { triggerJob } from '../../api/admin';
 import { Button } from '../ui/Button';
@@ -89,7 +91,14 @@ function BreakdownTable({ rows, labelHeader, mapLabel }: {
 }
 
 export function TrackRecordPanel() {
-  const { data, isLoading, isError, error } = usePerformance();
+  const [qualifiedOnly, setQualifiedOnly] = useState(true);
+  const activation = useActivation();
+
+  const params = qualifiedOnly && activation.data
+    ? { min_rr: activation.data.min_rr, min_confidence: activation.data.min_confidence }
+    : undefined;
+
+  const { data, isLoading, isError, error } = usePerformance(params);
   const queryClient = useQueryClient();
   const toast = useToast();
 
@@ -106,6 +115,26 @@ export function TrackRecordPanel() {
 
   return (
     <div className="space-y-6">
+      <div className="glass-sm flex flex-wrap items-center justify-between gap-3 px-4 py-3">
+        <label className="flex cursor-pointer items-center gap-2.5 text-sm text-gray-300">
+          <input
+            type="checkbox"
+            checked={qualifiedOnly}
+            onChange={(e) => setQualifiedOnly(e.target.checked)}
+            className="h-4 w-4 cursor-pointer accent-blue-400"
+          />
+          <span>
+            Qualified signals only
+            {activation.data && (
+              <span className="num ml-2 text-xs text-gray-500">
+                R:R ≥ {activation.data.min_rr.toFixed(1)} · conf ≥ {activation.data.min_confidence.toFixed(0)}%
+              </span>
+            )}
+          </span>
+        </label>
+        <p className="text-xs text-gray-500">Confidence breakdown always covers all setups.</p>
+      </div>
+
       <div className="flex items-start justify-between gap-4">
         <Disclosure summary="How outcomes are measured">
           <p className="text-xs text-gray-400">
@@ -138,8 +167,9 @@ export function TrackRecordPanel() {
 
       {data && data.overall.total === 0 && (
         <Callout variant="empty">
-          No evaluated setups yet. Outcomes appear once setups are old enough for their stop or
-          target to be hit — the evaluator runs nightly, or click Evaluate Now.
+          {qualifiedOnly
+            ? 'No evaluated setups meet the activation thresholds yet. Untick "Qualified signals only" to see all evaluated setups, or wait for more outcomes.'
+            : 'No evaluated setups yet. Outcomes appear once setups are old enough for their stop or target to be hit — the evaluator runs nightly, or click Evaluate Now.'}
           {data.pending > 0 && ` ${data.pending} setup${data.pending === 1 ? '' : 's'} pending evaluation.`}
         </Callout>
       )}

frontend/src/hooks/useActivation.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,10 @@
+import { useQuery } from '@tanstack/react-query';
+import { getActivation } from '../api/activation';
+
+export function useActivation() {
+  return useQuery({
+    queryKey: ['activation'],
+    queryFn: getActivation,
+    staleTime: 5 * 60 * 1000,
+  });
+}

frontend/src/hooks/useAdmin.ts

@@ -114,6 +114,32 @@ export function useUpdateRecommendationSettings() {
   });
 }
 
+export function useActivationSettings() {
+  return useQuery({
+    queryKey: ['admin', 'activation-settings'],
+    queryFn: () => adminApi.getActivationSettings(),
+  });
+}
+
+export function useUpdateActivationSettings() {
+  const qc = useQueryClient();
+  const { addToast } = useToast();
+
+  return useMutation({
+    mutationFn: (payload: Record<string, number>) =>
+      adminApi.updateActivationSettings(payload),
+    onSuccess: () => {
+      qc.invalidateQueries({ queryKey: ['admin', 'activation-settings'] });
+      qc.invalidateQueries({ queryKey: ['activation'] });
+      qc.invalidateQueries({ queryKey: ['performance'] });
+      addToast('success', 'Activation thresholds updated');
+    },
+    onError: (error: Error) => {
+      addToast('error', error.message || 'Failed to update activation thresholds');
+    },
+  });
+}
+
 export function useTickerUniverseSetting() {
   return useQuery({
     queryKey: ['admin', 'ticker-universe'],

frontend/src/hooks/usePerformance.ts

@@ -1,9 +1,9 @@
 import { useQuery } from '@tanstack/react-query';
-import { getPerformance } from '../api/performance';
+import { getPerformance, type PerformanceParams } from '../api/performance';
 
-export function usePerformance() {
+export function usePerformance(params?: PerformanceParams) {
   return useQuery({
-    queryKey: ['performance'],
-    queryFn: getPerformance,
+    queryKey: ['performance', params ?? null],
+    queryFn: () => getPerformance(params),
   });
 }

frontend/src/lib/types.ts

@@ -152,6 +152,12 @@ export interface PerformanceStats {
   by_confidence: Record<string, OutcomeBucketStats>;
 }
 
+// Activation thresholds: what counts as an actionable signal
+export interface ActivationConfig {
+  min_rr: number;
+  min_confidence: number;
+}
+
 export interface TradeTarget {
   price: number;
   distance_from_entry: number;

frontend/src/pages/AdminPage.tsx

@@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
 import { useState } from 'react';
+import { ActivationSettings } from '../components/admin/ActivationSettings';
 import { DataCleanup } from '../components/admin/DataCleanup';
 import { JobControls } from '../components/admin/JobControls';
 import { PipelineReadinessPanel } from '../components/admin/PipelineReadinessPanel';
@@ -28,6 +29,7 @@ export default function AdminPage() {
         {activeTab === 'Tickers' && <TickerManagement />}
         {activeTab === 'Settings' && (
           <div className="space-y-4">
+            <ActivationSettings />
             <TickerUniverseBootstrap />
             <RecommendationSettings />
             <SettingsForm />

frontend/src/pages/DashboardPage.tsx

@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 import { useMemo } from 'react';
 import { Link } from 'react-router-dom';
+import { useActivation } from '../hooks/useActivation';
 import { useTrades } from '../hooks/useTrades';
 import { useWatchlist } from '../hooks/useWatchlist';
 import { usePerformance } from '../hooks/usePerformance';
@@ -51,16 +52,25 @@ function DirectionTag({ direction }: { direction: string }) {
 export default function DashboardPage() {
   const trades = useTrades();
   const watchlist = useWatchlist();
+  const activation = useActivation();
   const performance = usePerformance();
 
-  const topSetups: TradeSetup[] = useMemo(
-    () => (trades.data ?? []).slice(0, 5),
-    [trades.data],
+  const minRR = activation.data?.min_rr ?? 2;
+  const minConfidence = activation.data?.min_confidence ?? 70;
+
+  const qualifiedSetups = useMemo(
+    () =>
+      (trades.data ?? []).filter(
+        (t) => t.rr_ratio >= minRR && (t.confidence_score ?? 0) >= minConfidence,
+      ),
+    [trades.data, minRR, minConfidence],
   );
 
-  const highConfidenceCount = useMemo(
-    () => (trades.data ?? []).filter((t) => (t.confidence_score ?? 0) >= 70).length,
-    [trades.data],
+  // Show qualified setups first; fall back to the full list when none qualify
+  const showingQualified = qualifiedSetups.length > 0;
+  const topSetups: TradeSetup[] = useMemo(
+    () => (showingQualified ? qualifiedSetups : trades.data ?? []).slice(0, 5),
+    [showingQualified, qualifiedSetups, trades.data],
   );
 
   const topWatchlist = useMemo(
@@ -100,10 +110,10 @@ export default function DashboardPage() {
             sub="latest per ticker & direction"
           />
           <Metric
-            label="High Confidence"
-            value={String(highConfidenceCount)}
-            sub="confidence ≥ 70%"
-            valueClass={highConfidenceCount > 0 ? 'text-blue-300' : 'text-gray-100'}
+            label="Qualified"
+            value={String(qualifiedSetups.length)}
+            sub={`R:R ≥ ${minRR.toFixed(1)} & conf ≥ ${minConfidence.toFixed(0)}%`}
+            valueClass={qualifiedSetups.length > 0 ? 'text-blue-300' : 'text-gray-100'}
           />
           <Metric
             label="Hit Rate"
@@ -122,7 +132,7 @@ export default function DashboardPage() {
       <div className="grid gap-8 xl:grid-cols-5">
         {/* Top setups */}
         <div className="xl:col-span-3">
-          <Section title="Top Setups" hint="by confidence">
+          <Section title="Top Setups" hint={showingQualified ? 'qualified, by confidence' : 'none qualified — showing all'}>
             {trades.isLoading && <SkeletonTable rows={5} cols={5} />}
             {trades.isError && <Callout variant="error">Failed to load setups</Callout>}
             {trades.data && topSetups.length === 0 && (