Revert blue-sky projection; keep played-out setup UX
A local backtest (offline prod snapshot, 506 tickers) evaluated blue-sky projected targets under the PRODUCTION exit (3x ATR trailing + 30d max hold, paper_trade_service DEFAULT_EXIT_MODE="atr_trailing"). Blue-sky setups are dilutive: the qualified book scored 328% return / Sharpe 1.84 / DD -21.0% WITHOUT them vs 300% / 1.58 / -18.7% WITH them. They rank high on momentum by construction, so they grab slots from S/R setups that catch bigger runs under a trailing-stop exit (only ~2pp worse drawdown doesn't justify the lost return and Sharpe). Reverts the scanner/TargetGenerator measured-move projection, the stricter projected activation gate, the frontend qualification mirror, the `projected` type field, and the projected tests -- all backend files are now byte-identical to the pre-blue-sky commit. Keeps the played-out "No current setup" UX (RecommendationPanel): when price has run past the target (played out) or through the stop (invalidated), the panel shows a plain no-setup state instead of a stale actionable card. This is frontend-only (reads last close + existing setup fields) and is what actually fixes the reported stale-below-price bug -- no backend change or rescan needed. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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@@ -16,15 +16,6 @@ from typing import Any
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HIGH_CONVICTION_ACTIONS = {"LONG_HIGH", "SHORT_HIGH"}
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# A projected (blue-sky) target has no S/R validation — it is a measured-move
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# extension used when nothing sits overhead. Because that is exactly the kind of
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# unvalidated target the gate exists to distrust, a projected setup clears a
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# STRICTER bar than an S/R-anchored one, regardless of whether the general
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# momentum gate is active: long-only (breakout continuation), strong residual
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# momentum, and a higher confidence floor. Mirrored in frontend/src/lib/qualification.ts.
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PROJECTED_MIN_MOMENTUM_PERCENTILE = 90.0
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PROJECTED_CONFIDENCE_MARGIN = 10.0
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def _action_direction(action: str | None) -> str:
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if not action or action == "NEUTRAL":
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@@ -55,19 +46,6 @@ def primary_target_probability(setup: Any) -> float | None:
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return best if best > 0 else None
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def primary_target_is_projected(setup: Any) -> bool:
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"""Whether the setup's headline target is a blue-sky measured-move projection.
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Prefers the starred primary; falls back to any projected target when none is
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explicitly flagged primary (matches primary_target_probability's fallback).
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"""
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targets = getattr(setup, "targets", None) or []
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for target in targets:
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if isinstance(target, dict) and target.get("is_primary"):
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return bool(target.get("projected"))
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return any(isinstance(t, dict) and t.get("projected") for t in targets)
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def live_risk_reward(setup: Any, current_price: float) -> float | None:
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"""R:R recomputed from the CURRENT price, not the (possibly stale) entry.
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@@ -124,18 +102,6 @@ def setup_qualifies(setup: Any, config: dict) -> bool:
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momentum_percentile = getattr(setup, "momentum_percentile", None)
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if momentum_percentile is None or momentum_percentile < min_pct:
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return False
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# Projected (blue-sky) targets clear a stricter bar than S/R-anchored ones,
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# independent of the general momentum gate above: long-only, strong residual
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# momentum, and a higher confidence floor. The target has no S/R validation,
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# so we only trust it for high-momentum breakout continuations.
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if primary_target_is_projected(setup):
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if (getattr(setup, "direction", "long") or "long").lower() != "long":
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return False
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momentum_percentile = getattr(setup, "momentum_percentile", None)
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if momentum_percentile is None or momentum_percentile < PROJECTED_MIN_MOMENTUM_PERCENTILE:
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return False
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if (setup.confidence_score or 0.0) < config["min_confidence"] + PROJECTED_CONFIDENCE_MARGIN:
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return False
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# A setup is actionable only when the live ticker action points in the same
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# direction. NEUTRAL means no clear signal; an opposite action means the
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# setup is counter-bias. ``exclude_neutral`` defaults on; callers that omit
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