Tighten qualified signal gate

app/services/qualification.py

@@ -5,9 +5,9 @@ performance stats (server) and mirrored on the frontend. The core selection is
 residual cross-sectional momentum: a setup's ticker must rank in the top
 ``min_momentum_percentile`` of the universe by beta-adjusted 12-1 month momentum.
 R:R and confidence remain as floors, and conviction/conflict survive as optional
-tighteners (off by default). The activation percentile is computed across the
-universe and attached to each setup upstream; when it's absent the gate falls
-back to the floors.
+tighteners (off by default). Qualified setups must also have a probability-backed
+target; otherwise a mathematically high R:R can be driven by a fragile target
+with no independent validation.
 """
 
 from __future__ import annotations
@@ -34,6 +34,18 @@ def best_target_probability(setup: Any) -> float:
     return max(probs, default=0.0)
 
 
+def primary_target_probability(setup: Any) -> float | None:
+    """Probability of the primary/headline target, falling back to best target."""
+    targets = getattr(setup, "targets", None) or []
+    for target in targets:
+        if not isinstance(target, dict) or not target.get("is_primary"):
+            continue
+        probability = target.get("probability")
+        return float(probability) if probability is not None else None
+    best = best_target_probability(setup)
+    return best if best > 0 else None
+
+
 def live_risk_reward(setup: Any, current_price: float) -> float | None:
     """R:R recomputed from the CURRENT price, not the (possibly stale) entry.
 
@@ -58,10 +70,10 @@ def setup_qualifies(setup: Any, config: dict) -> bool:
     ``setup`` is duck-typed: any object exposing rr_ratio, confidence_score,
     recommended_action, risk_level and a ``targets`` list of dicts.
 
-    Gate order: R:R floor → freshness (live R:R) → confidence floor → momentum
-    percentile (the core selection) → optional conviction / conflict tighteners.
-    ``min_momentum_percentile`` defaults to 0 (off) for callers that pass a legacy
-    config without the key.
+    Gate order: R:R floor, freshness (live R:R), target probability, confidence
+    floor, momentum percentile (the core selection), then optional conviction /
+    conflict tighteners. ``min_momentum_percentile`` defaults to 0 (off) for
+    callers that pass a legacy config without the key.
     """
     if setup.rr_ratio < config["min_rr"]:
         return False
@@ -73,20 +85,22 @@ def setup_qualifies(setup: Any, config: dict) -> bool:
         live_rr = live_risk_reward(setup, float(current_price))
         if live_rr is not None and live_rr < config["min_rr"]:
             return False
+    if primary_target_probability(setup) is None:
+        return False
     if (setup.confidence_score or 0.0) < config["min_confidence"]:
         return False
     # Residual cross-sectional momentum: the core selection. A setup's ticker
     # must rank in the top ``min_momentum_percentile`` of the universe by
     # beta-adjusted 12-1 momentum. The validated edge is long-only, so while the
-    # gate is active shorts (which fight the trend) never qualify. The percentile
-    # floor is only enforced when a percentile is attached (live setups /
-    # backtest); callers that don't attach it defer to the floors above.
+    # gate is active shorts (which fight the trend) never qualify. Missing ranks
+    # do not qualify because the production edge depends on this cross-sectional
+    # selection.
     min_pct = float(config.get("min_momentum_percentile", 0.0))
     if min_pct > 0:
         if (getattr(setup, "direction", "long") or "long") == "short":
             return False
         momentum_percentile = getattr(setup, "momentum_percentile", None)
-        if momentum_percentile is not None and momentum_percentile < min_pct:
+        if momentum_percentile is None or momentum_percentile < min_pct:
             return False
     # A setup is actionable only when the live ticker action points in the same
     # direction. NEUTRAL means no clear signal; an opposite action means the

frontend/src/lib/qualification.ts

@@ -39,13 +39,15 @@ export function qualifiesSetup(setup: TradeSetup, config: ActivationConfig): boo
   if (setup.current_price != null && liveRiskReward(setup, setup.current_price) < config.min_rr) {
     return false;
   }
+  const targetProbability = primaryTargetProbability(setup);
+  if (targetProbability == null || targetProbability <= 0) return false;
   if ((setup.confidence_score ?? 0) < config.min_confidence) return false;
   // Residual cross-sectional momentum is the core selection (long-only). While
-  // the gate is active, shorts never qualify; the percentile floor is enforced
-  // only when a percentile is attached, otherwise defer to the floors.
+  // the gate is active, shorts never qualify; missing ranks do not qualify
+  // because the production edge depends on this cross-sectional selection.
   if (config.min_momentum_percentile > 0) {
     if (setup.direction === 'short') return false;
-    if (setup.momentum_percentile != null && setup.momentum_percentile < config.min_momentum_percentile) {
+    if (setup.momentum_percentile == null || setup.momentum_percentile < config.min_momentum_percentile) {
       return false;
     }
   }

tests/unit/test_outcome_service.py

@@ -2,6 +2,7 @@
 
 from __future__ import annotations
 
+import json
 from datetime import date, datetime, timedelta, timezone
 
 import pytest
@@ -127,6 +128,15 @@ def _make_setup(
     detected: datetime | None = None,
     **kwargs,
 ) -> TradeSetup:
+    targets_json = kwargs.pop(
+        "targets_json",
+        json.dumps([{
+            "price": target,
+            "rr_ratio": rr,
+            "probability": 50.0,
+            "is_primary": True,
+        }]),
+    )
     return TradeSetup(
         ticker_id=ticker.id,
         direction=direction,
@@ -136,6 +146,7 @@ def _make_setup(
         rr_ratio=rr,
         composite_score=50.0,
         detected_at=detected or datetime(2026, 1, 2, 21, 0, tzinfo=timezone.utc),
+        targets_json=targets_json,
         **kwargs,
     )
 

tests/unit/test_qualification.py

@@ -4,10 +4,15 @@ from __future__ import annotations
 
 from types import SimpleNamespace
 
-from app.services.qualification import best_target_probability, setup_qualifies
+from app.services.qualification import (
+    best_target_probability,
+    primary_target_probability,
+    setup_qualifies,
+)
 
 # Default gate: floors only; the momentum selection is off (0). Conviction /
-# conflict / target-probability are optional tighteners, off here.
+# conflict are optional tighteners, off here. Target probability is always
+# required because qualified means the headline target is evidence-backed.
 DEFAULT_GATE = {
     "min_momentum_percentile": 0.0,
     "min_rr": 1.2,
@@ -68,6 +73,15 @@ class TestFloors:
         s = _setup(direction="long", target=120.0, stop_loss=95.0, current_price=94.0)
         assert setup_qualifies(s, DEFAULT_GATE) is False
 
+    def test_missing_target_probability_fails(self):
+        assert setup_qualifies(_setup(targets=[]), DEFAULT_GATE) is False
+
+    def test_non_primary_target_probability_still_passes(self):
+        assert setup_qualifies(
+            _setup(targets=[{"probability": 42.0}]),
+            DEFAULT_GATE,
+        ) is True
+
 
 class TestMomentumGate:
     def test_top_momentum_passes(self):
@@ -76,15 +90,17 @@ class TestMomentumGate:
     def test_below_threshold_fails(self):
         assert setup_qualifies(_setup(momentum_percentile=50.0), MOMENTUM_GATE) is False
 
-    def test_missing_percentile_defers_to_floors(self):
-        # No percentile attached (e.g. production not yet wired) → the momentum
-        # gate is skipped and the setup still clears on the floors.
-        assert setup_qualifies(_setup(), MOMENTUM_GATE) is True
+    def test_missing_percentile_fails_when_gate_active(self):
+        # No residual rank means the production momentum edge was not measured.
+        assert setup_qualifies(_setup(), MOMENTUM_GATE) is False
 
     def test_threshold_zero_disables_gate(self):
         # min_momentum_percentile 0 → a low-momentum name still passes.
         assert setup_qualifies(_setup(momentum_percentile=10.0), DEFAULT_GATE) is True
 
+    def test_threshold_zero_allows_missing_percentile(self):
+        assert setup_qualifies(_setup(), DEFAULT_GATE) is True
+
     def test_missing_key_defaults_off(self):
         legacy = {k: v for k, v in DEFAULT_GATE.items() if k != "min_momentum_percentile"}
         assert setup_qualifies(_setup(momentum_percentile=10.0), legacy) is True
@@ -146,3 +162,14 @@ class TestBestTargetProbability:
 
     def test_empty_is_zero(self):
         assert best_target_probability(_setup(targets=[])) == 0.0
+
+    def test_primary_probability_prefers_starred_target(self):
+        s = _setup(targets=[
+            {"probability": 70.0},
+            {"probability": 45.0, "is_primary": True},
+        ])
+        assert primary_target_probability(s) == 45.0
+
+    def test_primary_probability_falls_back_to_best(self):
+        s = _setup(targets=[{"probability": 40.0}, {"probability": 72.0}])
+        assert primary_target_probability(s) == 72.0