feat: log Phase A decisions and add execution-recovery matrix

Document Phase A (max-hold/vol/corr closed; next-open as decision baseline). Add stale_close and next_open gap-cap fill modes plus a small matrix to test whether near-close scheduling recovers overnight momentum drift.
2026-07-18 16:27:10 +02:00
parent 723d47338e
commit 3eb6192a1e
5 changed files with 768 additions and 26 deletions
@@ -1066,6 +1066,93 @@ class TestSimulatePortfolio:
        # end should be near entry + hold (trading days ≈ calendar for synthetic series)
        assert (end - entry).days <= 10

+    def test_stale_close_fills_next_session_close_with_reanchored_stop(self):
+        n = 40
+        closes = [100.0 + 0.1 * i for i in range(n)]
+        opens = list(closes)
+        highs = [c + 2.0 for c in closes]
+        lows = [c - 2.0 for c in closes]
+        ords = list(range(self.ORD, self.ORD + n))
+        signal_i = n - 2
+        fill_i = n - 1
+        closes[fill_i] = 110.0
+        opens[fill_i] = 105.0
+        highs[fill_i] = 111.0
+        lows[fill_i] = 104.0
+        prices = {
+            "AAA": (ords, opens, highs, lows, closes, [1_000_000] * n)
+        }
+        cand = _sim_cand(
+            "AAA",
+            self.ORD + signal_i,
+            entry=closes[signal_i],
+            stop=closes[signal_i] - 5.0,
+            target=200.0,
+        )
+        sim = bt._simulate_portfolio(
+            [cand],
+            prices,
+            None,
+            "hold",
+            5,
+            fill_mode=bt.FILL_MODE_STALE_CLOSE,
+            cost_per_side=0.0,
+            include_trades=True,
+        )
+        assert sim is not None
+        assert sim["fill_mode"] == "stale_close"
+        assert sim["trades"] == 1
+        trade = sim["trade_details"][0]
+        assert trade["entry"] == pytest.approx(110.0)
+        # ATR ~4 on this synthetic series → stop = 110 − 1.5×4 = 104
+        assert trade["initial_stop"] == pytest.approx(110.0 - 1.5 * 4.0, abs=0.5)
+        assert "signal_to_fill_drift" in sim
+
+    def test_next_open_gap_cap_skips_large_gap_ups(self):
+        n = 40
+        closes = [100.0] * n
+        opens = [100.0] * n
+        highs = [102.0] * n
+        lows = [98.0] * n
+        ords = list(range(self.ORD, self.ORD + n))
+        signal_i = n - 2
+        fill_i = n - 1
+        opens[fill_i] = 110.0  # +10% gap vs signal close 100
+        highs[fill_i] = 111.0
+        lows[fill_i] = 109.0
+        closes[fill_i] = 110.5
+        prices = {
+            "AAA": (ords, opens, highs, lows, closes, [1_000_000] * n)
+        }
+        cand = _sim_cand(
+            "AAA", self.ORD + signal_i, entry=100.0, stop=95.0, target=130.0
+        )
+        blocked = bt._simulate_portfolio(
+            [cand],
+            prices,
+            None,
+            "hold",
+            5,
+            fill_mode=bt.FILL_MODE_NEXT_OPEN,
+            max_entry_gap_pct=0.02,
+            cost_per_side=0.0,
+        )
+        allowed = bt._simulate_portfolio(
+            [cand],
+            prices,
+            None,
+            "hold",
+            5,
+            fill_mode=bt.FILL_MODE_NEXT_OPEN,
+            cost_per_side=0.0,
+            include_trades=True,
+        )
+        assert blocked is None or blocked.get("trades", 0) == 0
+        if blocked is not None:
+            assert blocked.get("skipped_gap_cap", 0) >= 1
+        assert allowed is not None and allowed["trades"] == 1
+        assert allowed["trade_details"][0]["entry"] == pytest.approx(110.0)
+

 def test_fip_id_sign_convention_steady_climber_vs_jump():
    # Steady climber: many up days, continuous path → lower (more negative) ID.