From 361cfd7883a06e6fb8ab1732e25c24b9117c1dd0 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Dennis Thiessen Date: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 17:50:33 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] docs: record fundamentals research decision and clean up --- app/services/fundamentals_derivation.py | 82 +- app/services/fundamentals_research.py | 176 - docs/research/fundamentals-weight-backtest.md | 209 +- ...damentals-overlay-20260723-135627-arms.csv | 53 - ...tals-overlay-20260723-135627-factor-ic.csv | 37 - ...mentals-overlay-20260723-135627-trades.csv | 6297 - .../fundamentals-overlay-20260723-135627.json | 111143 --------------- .../fundamentals-overlay-20260723-135627.md | 123 - .../fundamentals-overlay-20260723-135627.zip | Bin 662894 -> 0 bytes ...mentals-splitsafe-20260723-153520-arms.csv | 41 - ...ls-splitsafe-20260723-153520-factor-ic.csv | 29 - ...ntals-splitsafe-20260723-153520-trades.csv | 4830 - ...undamentals-splitsafe-20260723-153520.json | 85302 ----------- .../fundamentals-splitsafe-20260723-153520.md | 105 - ...fundamentals-splitsafe-20260723-153520.zip | Bin 510721 -> 0 bytes scripts/create_backtest_snapshot.py | 54 +- scripts/run_fundamentals_macbook.sh | 56 - scripts/run_fundamentals_research.py | 1214 - tests/unit/test_fundamentals_derivation.py | 124 +- tests/unit/test_fundamentals_research.py | 97 - .../unit/test_fundamentals_research_runner.py | 102 - 21 files changed, 102 insertions(+), 209972 deletions(-) delete mode 100644 app/services/fundamentals_research.py delete mode 100644 reports/fundamentals-overlay-20260723-135627-arms.csv delete mode 100644 reports/fundamentals-overlay-20260723-135627-factor-ic.csv delete mode 100644 reports/fundamentals-overlay-20260723-135627-trades.csv delete mode 100644 reports/fundamentals-overlay-20260723-135627.json delete mode 100644 reports/fundamentals-overlay-20260723-135627.md delete mode 100644 reports/fundamentals-overlay-20260723-135627.zip delete mode 100644 reports/fundamentals-splitsafe-20260723-153520-arms.csv delete mode 100644 reports/fundamentals-splitsafe-20260723-153520-factor-ic.csv delete mode 100644 reports/fundamentals-splitsafe-20260723-153520-trades.csv delete mode 100644 reports/fundamentals-splitsafe-20260723-153520.json delete mode 100644 reports/fundamentals-splitsafe-20260723-153520.md delete mode 100644 reports/fundamentals-splitsafe-20260723-153520.zip delete mode 100755 scripts/run_fundamentals_macbook.sh delete mode 100644 scripts/run_fundamentals_research.py delete mode 100644 tests/unit/test_fundamentals_research.py delete mode 100644 tests/unit/test_fundamentals_research_runner.py diff --git a/app/services/fundamentals_derivation.py b/app/services/fundamentals_derivation.py index 3fada32..e5d203c 100644 --- a/app/services/fundamentals_derivation.py +++ b/app/services/fundamentals_derivation.py @@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ Rules: from __future__ import annotations from dataclasses import dataclass, field -from datetime import date, datetime, timezone +from datetime import date from typing import Any, Iterable _FP_TO_Q = {"Q1": 1, "Q2": 2, "Q3": 3, "FY": 4} @@ -30,12 +30,7 @@ TAPE_LEN = 4 # quarter-tape length # Duration (flow) fields differenced from YTD into discrete quarters + summed to TTM. _FLOW_FIELDS = ( - "revenue", - "net_income", - "operating_income", - "diluted_eps", - "cfo", - "capex", + "revenue", "net_income", "operating_income", "diluted_eps", "cfo", "capex", "depreciation_amortization", ) @@ -49,9 +44,7 @@ class MetricPoint: @dataclass class MetricSeries: value: float | None = None - history: list[MetricPoint] = field( - default_factory=list - ) # oldest -> newest, <= TAPE_LEN + history: list[MetricPoint] = field(default_factory=list) # oldest -> newest, <= TAPE_LEN period_end: date | None = None filed_date: date | None = None @@ -89,9 +82,7 @@ def derive(snapshots: Iterable[Any]) -> DerivedFundamentals: result.ttm_diluted_eps = _ttm(discrete["diluted_eps"], *latest) ttm_cfo = _ttm(discrete["cfo"], *latest) ttm_capex = _ttm(discrete["capex"], *latest) - result.ttm_fcf = ( - None if ttm_cfo is None or ttm_capex is None else ttm_cfo - ttm_capex - ) + result.ttm_fcf = None if ttm_cfo is None or ttm_capex is None else ttm_cfo - ttm_capex # tape = the CONSECUTIVE run of up to TAPE_LEN quarters ending at the latest, # stopping at a gap — so trend text never compares non-adjacent periods. @@ -99,9 +90,7 @@ def derive(snapshots: Iterable[Any]) -> DerivedFundamentals: result.metrics = { "revenue_growth_yoy": _yoy_growth_series(discrete["revenue"], selected, tape), "eps_growth_yoy": _yoy_growth_series(discrete["diluted_eps"], selected, tape), - "operating_margin": _margin_series( - discrete["operating_income"], discrete["revenue"], selected, tape - ), + "operating_margin": _margin_series(discrete["operating_income"], discrete["revenue"], selected, tape), "fcf_margin": _fcf_margin_series(discrete, selected, tape), "net_debt": _instant_series(selected, tape, _net_debt), "net_debt_to_ebitda": _leverage_series(selected, discrete, tape), @@ -113,27 +102,8 @@ def derive(snapshots: Iterable[Any]) -> DerivedFundamentals: return result -def derive_as_of(snapshots: Iterable[Any], as_of: datetime) -> DerivedFundamentals: - """Derive using only SEC filings accepted by the historical cutoff.""" - cutoff = _utc_datetime(as_of) - visible = ( - row - for row in snapshots - if (accepted := getattr(row, "accepted_at", None)) is not None - and _utc_datetime(accepted) <= cutoff - ) - return derive(visible) - - -def _utc_datetime(value: datetime) -> datetime: - if value.tzinfo is None: - return value.replace(tzinfo=timezone.utc) - return value.astimezone(timezone.utc) - - # -- period selection -------------------------------------------------------- - def _select_latest_per_period(snapshots: Iterable[Any]) -> dict[tuple[int, str], Any]: best: dict[tuple[int, str], Any] = {} for row in snapshots: @@ -156,9 +126,7 @@ def _ordered_quarters(selected: dict[tuple[int, str], Any]) -> list[tuple[int, i return sorted((fy, _FP_TO_Q[fp]) for (fy, fp) in selected) -def _consecutive_suffix( - quarters: list[tuple[int, int]], n: int -) -> list[tuple[int, int]]: +def _consecutive_suffix(quarters: list[tuple[int, int]], n: int) -> list[tuple[int, int]]: """The run of up to n quarters ending at the latest, walking back only through adjacent periods (stop at the first gap). Returned oldest -> newest.""" if not quarters: @@ -178,10 +146,7 @@ def _consecutive_suffix( # -- discrete + TTM ---------------------------------------------------------- - -def _discrete_quarters( - selected: dict[tuple[int, str], Any], field_name: str -) -> dict[tuple[int, int], float]: +def _discrete_quarters(selected: dict[tuple[int, str], Any], field_name: str) -> dict[tuple[int, int], float]: out: dict[tuple[int, int], float] = {} for (fy, fp), row in selected.items(): val = _discrete_value(selected, fy, fp, field_name) @@ -224,7 +189,6 @@ def _pct_change(cur: float | None, prior: float | None) -> float | None: # -- per-metric series (value at latest + tape history) ---------------------- - def _period_end(selected, fy: int, q: int) -> date | None: row = selected.get((fy, _Q_TO_FP[q])) return row.period_end if row is not None else None @@ -232,7 +196,7 @@ def _period_end(selected, fy: int, q: int) -> date | None: def _yoy_growth_series(dq, selected, tape) -> MetricSeries: pts = [] - for fy, q in tape: + for (fy, q) in tape: cur, prior = _ttm(dq, fy, q), _ttm(dq, fy - 1, q) pts.append(MetricPoint(_period_end(selected, fy, q), _pct_change(cur, prior))) return _series(pts) @@ -240,7 +204,7 @@ def _yoy_growth_series(dq, selected, tape) -> MetricSeries: def _margin_series(num_dq, den_dq, selected, tape) -> MetricSeries: pts = [] - for fy, q in tape: + for (fy, q) in tape: num, den = _ttm(num_dq, fy, q), _ttm(den_dq, fy, q) val = None if num is None or not den else num / den * 100.0 pts.append(MetricPoint(_period_end(selected, fy, q), val)) @@ -249,38 +213,24 @@ def _margin_series(num_dq, den_dq, selected, tape) -> MetricSeries: def _fcf_margin_series(discrete, selected, tape) -> MetricSeries: pts = [] - for fy, q in tape: - cfo, capex, rev = ( - _ttm(discrete["cfo"], fy, q), - _ttm(discrete["capex"], fy, q), - _ttm(discrete["revenue"], fy, q), - ) - val = ( - None - if cfo is None or capex is None or not rev - else (cfo - capex) / rev * 100.0 - ) + for (fy, q) in tape: + cfo, capex, rev = _ttm(discrete["cfo"], fy, q), _ttm(discrete["capex"], fy, q), _ttm(discrete["revenue"], fy, q) + val = None if cfo is None or capex is None or not rev else (cfo - capex) / rev * 100.0 pts.append(MetricPoint(_period_end(selected, fy, q), val)) return _series(pts) def _instant_series(selected, tape, fn) -> MetricSeries: - pts = [ - MetricPoint(_period_end(selected, fy, q), fn(selected.get((fy, _Q_TO_FP[q])))) - for (fy, q) in tape - ] + pts = [MetricPoint(_period_end(selected, fy, q), fn(selected.get((fy, _Q_TO_FP[q])))) for (fy, q) in tape] return _series(pts) def _leverage_series(selected, discrete, tape) -> MetricSeries: pts = [] - for fy, q in tape: + for (fy, q) in tape: row = selected.get((fy, _Q_TO_FP[q])) nd = _net_debt(row) - op, da = ( - _ttm(discrete["operating_income"], fy, q), - _ttm(discrete["depreciation_amortization"], fy, q), - ) + op, da = _ttm(discrete["operating_income"], fy, q), _ttm(discrete["depreciation_amortization"], fy, q) ebitda = None if op is None or da is None else op + da # Null when EBITDA <= 0: a negative denominator would flip polarity and a # "lower is better" read would rank a distressed issuer as favorable. @@ -291,7 +241,7 @@ def _leverage_series(selected, discrete, tape) -> MetricSeries: def _share_change_series(selected, tape) -> MetricSeries: pts = [] - for fy, q in tape: + for (fy, q) in tape: cur = _shares(selected.get((fy, _Q_TO_FP[q]))) prior = _shares(selected.get((fy - 1, _Q_TO_FP[q]))) pts.append(MetricPoint(_period_end(selected, fy, q), _pct_change(cur, prior))) diff --git a/app/services/fundamentals_research.py b/app/services/fundamentals_research.py deleted file mode 100644 index c1fbdb9..0000000 --- a/app/services/fundamentals_research.py +++ /dev/null @@ -1,176 +0,0 @@ -"""Pure scoring helpers for point-in-time fundamentals research. - -The runner converts a CIK-deduplicated cross-section into favorable 0..100 -factor ranks and three deliberately small composites. Historical valuation is -absent: stored bars are split-adjusted, while filing-time EPS and share counts -are not guaranteed to be on today's split basis. -""" - -from __future__ import annotations - -import math -from collections.abc import Mapping -from typing import Any - -MIN_CROSS_SECTION = 5 - -FACTOR_POLARITY: dict[str, bool] = { - "revenue_growth_yoy": True, - "eps_growth_yoy": True, - "operating_margin": True, - "fcf_margin": True, - "net_debt_to_ebitda": False, - "share_count_change_yoy": False, -} - -QUALITY_FACTORS = ( - "operating_margin", - "fcf_margin", - "net_debt_to_ebitda", - "share_count_change_yoy", -) -GROWTH_FACTORS = ("revenue_growth_yoy", "eps_growth_yoy") -SPLIT_SAFE_FACTOR_POLARITY: dict[str, bool] = { - "revenue_growth_yoy": True, - "operating_margin": True, - "fcf_margin": True, - "net_debt_to_ebitda": False, -} -SPLIT_SAFE_QUALITY_FACTORS = ( - "operating_margin", - "fcf_margin", - "net_debt_to_ebitda", -) -SPLIT_SAFE_GROWTH_FACTORS = ("revenue_growth_yoy",) -COMPOSITE_KEYS = ("quality", "growth", "balanced") - - -def raw_features(derived: Any) -> dict[str, float | None]: - """Extract the six research-eligible values from derived fundamentals.""" - metrics = getattr(derived, "metrics", {}) or {} - return { - key: _finite_or_none(getattr(metrics.get(key), "value", None)) - for key in FACTOR_POLARITY - } - - -def cross_section_scores( - features_by_issuer: Mapping[str, Mapping[str, Any]], - *, - min_cross_section: int = MIN_CROSS_SECTION, - split_safe: bool = False, -) -> dict[str, dict[str, float | None]]: - """Return favorable factor ranks and composites for every issuer. - - The default reproduces the original registered experiment. ``split_safe`` - excludes diluted-EPS growth and share-count change because filing-time - values are not comparable across stock splits without point-in-time split - factors. Its quality score needs two of three remaining inputs and its - growth score is revenue growth. Balanced always weights the two sub-scores - equally. - """ - factor_polarity = SPLIT_SAFE_FACTOR_POLARITY if split_safe else FACTOR_POLARITY - quality_factors = SPLIT_SAFE_QUALITY_FACTORS if split_safe else QUALITY_FACTORS - growth_factors = SPLIT_SAFE_GROWTH_FACTORS if split_safe else GROWTH_FACTORS - result = { - str(issuer): { - **{key: None for key in factor_polarity}, - **{key: None for key in COMPOSITE_KEYS}, - } - for issuer in features_by_issuer - } - - for factor, higher_is_better in factor_polarity.items(): - values = { - str(issuer): _finite_or_none(features.get(factor)) - for issuer, features in features_by_issuer.items() - } - ranks = favorable_percentiles( - values, - higher_is_better=higher_is_better, - min_count=min_cross_section, - ) - for issuer, rank in ranks.items(): - result[issuer][factor] = rank - - for scores in result.values(): - quality_values = _available(scores, quality_factors) - growth_values = _available(scores, growth_factors) - if len(quality_values) >= 2: - scores["quality"] = _mean(quality_values) - if growth_values: - scores["growth"] = _mean(growth_values) - if scores["quality"] is not None and scores["growth"] is not None: - scores["balanced"] = _mean( - [float(scores["quality"]), float(scores["growth"])] - ) - return result - - -def favorable_percentiles( - values_by_issuer: Mapping[str, Any], - *, - higher_is_better: bool, - min_count: int = MIN_CROSS_SECTION, -) -> dict[str, float | None]: - """Tie-aware favorable percentile for a deduplicated cross-section.""" - valid = { - str(issuer): float(value) - for issuer, value in values_by_issuer.items() - if _finite_or_none(value) is not None - } - result: dict[str, float | None] = {str(issuer): None for issuer in values_by_issuer} - if len(valid) < min_count: - return result - - for issuer, subject in valid.items(): - others = [value for key, value in valid.items() if key != issuer] - if higher_is_better: - worse = sum(value < subject for value in others) - else: - worse = sum(value > subject for value in others) - tied = sum(value == subject for value in others) - result[issuer] = round( - (worse + 0.5 * tied) / len(others) * 100.0, - 4, - ) - return result - - -def overlay_rank( - strategy_rank: Any, - fundamental_score: Any, - weight: float, - *, - missing_score: float = 50.0, -) -> float | None: - """Blend production rank with fundamentals without changing the gate.""" - base = _finite_or_none(strategy_rank) - if base is None: - return None - if not 0.0 <= weight <= 1.0: - raise ValueError("weight must be between 0 and 1") - score = _finite_or_none(fundamental_score) - if score is None: - score = float(missing_score) - return round((1.0 - weight) * base + weight * score, 4) - - -def _available(scores: Mapping[str, Any], keys: tuple[str, ...]) -> list[float]: - return [ - value for key in keys if (value := _finite_or_none(scores.get(key))) is not None - ] - - -def _mean(values: list[float]) -> float: - return round(sum(values) / len(values), 4) - - -def _finite_or_none(value: Any) -> float | None: - if ( - isinstance(value, (int, float)) - and not isinstance(value, bool) - and math.isfinite(value) - ): - return float(value) - return None diff --git a/docs/research/fundamentals-weight-backtest.md b/docs/research/fundamentals-weight-backtest.md index 10956a5..b2d626f 100644 --- a/docs/research/fundamentals-weight-backtest.md +++ b/docs/research/fundamentals-weight-backtest.md @@ -1,191 +1,74 @@ -# Point-in-time fundamentals weight backtest +# Fundamentals ranking-overlay research -Status: initial experiment completed; split-safe follow-up registered locally. -Running either protocol does not change production. +Status: completed 2026-07-23. Decision: keep production scoring and qualification unchanged. ## Question -Does reordering already-qualified long setups with SEC fundamentals improve the -production book's risk-adjusted return? The qualification gate, execution model, -position sizing, capacity, costs, ATR trail, and post-stop re-entry policy remain -unchanged. This isolates the incremental value of fundamentals as a ranking -overlay. +Does using point-in-time SEC fundamentals to reorder already-qualified long setups improve the production portfolio's risk-adjusted return? The experiments changed ranking only; qualification, execution, sizing, capacity, costs, ATR exits, and post-stop re-entry remained unchanged. -## Completed initial experiment +## Method -The control is the production 80/20 residual-momentum / volatility rank. The -runner tests three fundamental composites at weights 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40%: +- The control was the production 80/20 residual-momentum / volatility rank. +- SEC facts became visible only after `accepted_at`, using the newest visible accession per fiscal period. +- Portfolio simulations used daily entry opportunities, close fills, the production gate-reset re-entry policy, and a 30-session horizon. +- Train contained entries before 2024-01-01, validation covered 2024, and test began 2025-01-01. +- Missing composite scores were neutral at 50. +- Deflated Sharpe used the complete registered arm count for each experiment. -- Quality: operating margin, FCF margin, low net-debt/EBITDA, and low dilution. - At least two inputs must exist. -- Growth: revenue growth and diluted-EPS growth. At least one must exist. -- Balanced: equal weight to the quality and growth sub-scores. Both must exist. +The snapshot contained 511 tracked tickers, 507 unique CIKs, 30,494 SEC snapshot rows, and prices from 2021-06-24 through 2026-07-22. -Each raw metric is ranked favorably from 0 to 100 across the CIK-deduplicated -tracked universe. Missing composite scores are neutral at 50. The formula is: +## Initial experiment -`final rank = (1 - weight) * production rank + weight * fundamental rank` +The first registered matrix tested quality, growth, and balanced composites at 10%, 20%, 30%, and 40% weights: 13 trials including control. -There are 13 registered portfolio trials including the control. That complete -count is used by the Deflated Sharpe calculation. +No overlay passed the train and validation requirements. The most attractive full-period result, balanced at 10%, failed validation and improved test Sharpe by only 0.06. -No overlay passed the registered train and validation requirements. Review also -found that filing-time diluted EPS and shares are not guaranteed to use the same -split basis across periods. That makes EPS growth and share-count change unsafe -for historical ranking without point-in-time split factors. The initial result -remains an auditable rejection of its registered arms, but it is not evidence -that split-safe fundamentals have no value. +Review also found that filing-time diluted EPS and shares are not reliably comparable across stock splits. A snapshot audit found share-count changes above 25% for 90 of 461 issuers with comparable 2021+ periods, including recognizable split ratios for AMZN, GOOG, NVDA, CMG, and GE plus some obvious unit anomalies. Consequently, EPS growth and share-count change cannot be trusted for historical ranking without point-in-time split factors. -## Registered split-safe follow-up +The complete initial result is recoverable from Git commit `7f944d7`. -Run with `--protocol split-safe`. This is a smaller sensitivity experiment: +## Split-safe follow-up -- Quality: operating margin, FCF margin, and low net-debt/EBITDA. At least two - inputs must exist. +The follow-up excluded diluted-EPS growth and share-count change completely. It tested: + +- Quality: operating margin, FCF margin, and low net-debt/EBITDA, requiring at least two inputs. - Growth: revenue growth only. -- Balanced: equal weight to the quality and growth sub-scores. Both must exist. +- Balanced: equal quality and growth weights. - Overlay weights: 5%, 10%, and 15%. -Diluted-EPS growth and share-count change are excluded completely: they are not -ranked, do not enter composites, and do not appear in factor-IC output. Historical -P/E and FCF yield remain excluded for the same split-basis reason. Earnings -surprise remains excluded because the completed Dolt SUE study failed its -promotion bar for this strategy. +This produced 10 registered trials including control. Growth coverage among qualified candidates was 88.96%; lack of data was not the limiting factor. -There are 10 registered portfolio trials including the control. The split-safe -report uses 10 in its Deflated Sharpe calculation. It has a separate score cache -and `fundamentals-splitsafe-*` output prefix, so it cannot be confused with or -silently reuse the initial experiment's scores. +| Window | Control Sharpe | Revenue-growth 5% | Delta | +|---|---:|---:|---:| +| Train | 1.26 | 1.31 | +0.05 | +| Validation | 2.52 | 2.64 | +0.12 | +| Test | 1.99 | 1.99 | 0.00 | +| Full | 1.86 | 1.87 | +0.01 | -The test window has already been inspected during the initial experiment. Keep -the original date boundaries and development selection discipline, but treat the -follow-up as sensitivity evidence. Any promotion still requires forward paper -evidence. +Revenue growth at 5% mechanically passed the deliberately permissive "not worse" gate, but did not demonstrate an economically meaningful edge: -## Point-in-time rule +- Test CAGR rose from 54.4% to 56.1%, while full-period CAGR fell from 52.1% to 51.5%. +- Full-period trade overlap was 68.53%, so roughly one-third of selections changed for essentially unchanged Sharpe. +- Revenue-growth IC was 0.0006 in train, 0.0053 in test, and 0.0116 full-period with a full-period t-stat of 0.55. +- Growth weights of 10% and 15% deteriorated; quality and balanced composites failed. +- The test window had already been inspected, so this follow-up was sensitivity evidence rather than a fresh out-of-sample result. -Only SEC rows accepted before midnight America/New_York at the start of a signal -date are visible. This is conservative relative to the daily pre-market SEC -import and prevents same-day filings or later amendments from leaking backward. -The derivation then selects the newest visible accession per fiscal period. +The complete split-safe result is recoverable from Git commit `dba7ea7`. -Default windows are fixed before the first run: +## Decision -- Train: entry date before 2024-01-01 -- Validation: 2024-01-01 through 2024-12-31 -- Test: entry date on or after 2025-01-01 +- Do not add fundamental weight to production ranking or the automated qualification gate. +- Do not run another historical weight sweep on the same sample; it would add data-mining rather than new evidence. +- Keep fundamentals informational and user-facing in the UI. +- A5 source-parity and cutover work can proceed independently without changing scoring behavior. +- Treat historical EPS growth and share-count change as non-comparable across corporate actions until a split-aware solution or a conservative UI guard exists. -Do not move these boundaries after seeing results. The test window is used only -to check the single arm chosen from train and validation. Reports expose all -registered rows for auditability and correct multiple-testing accounting. +Revisit automated weighting only with materially better data, such as point-in-time split factors and historical constituent/delisting coverage, followed by genuinely new forward paper evidence. -## 1. Create the portable snapshot +## Limitations -Run this wherever the production PostgreSQL connection is already configured. -The exporter copies prices, the safe strategy settings, SEC snapshots, and Dolt -earnings rows. It does not copy credentials or unrelated system settings. +The snapshot uses today's tracked universe rather than historical membership and delisted securities, creating survivorship bias. Absolute CAGR and Sharpe must not be interpreted as unbiased live expectations. The relative comparison is useful, but the observed test window and short number of independent factor windows limit statistical power. -Windows PowerShell: +## Repository cleanup -```powershell -.venv\Scripts\python.exe scripts\create_backtest_snapshot.py ` - --output backtest_snapshots\fundamentals-backtest.sqlite ` - --force -``` - -Linux production host: - -```bash -.venv/bin/python scripts/create_backtest_snapshot.py \ - --output backtest_snapshots/fundamentals-backtest.sqlite \ - --force -``` - -Copy only the SQLite file to the MacBook. `scp`, a local network share, or an -encrypted USB drive are all fine. Do not copy `.env`. - -## 2. Prepare the MacBook - -Use the same Git commit as the machine that created the report. From the repo: - -```bash -python3.11 -m venv .venv -source .venv/bin/activate -python -m pip install --upgrade pip -python -m pip install -e '.[dev]' -chmod +x scripts/run_fundamentals_macbook.sh -``` - -Put the snapshot at `backtest_snapshots/fundamentals-backtest.sqlite`, or pass a -different path to the launcher. - -## 3. Run it - -The launcher now defaults to the registered `split-safe` follow-up: - -```bash -./scripts/run_fundamentals_macbook.sh \ - backtest_snapshots/fundamentals-backtest.sqlite -``` - -The launcher defaults to logical CPU count minus one. Override it if the laptop -gets too warm or memory pressure rises: - -```bash -WORKERS=8 ./scripts/run_fundamentals_macbook.sh \ - backtest_snapshots/fundamentals-backtest.sqlite -``` - -To reproduce the completed initial matrix instead, opt in explicitly: - -```bash -PROTOCOL=original ./scripts/run_fundamentals_macbook.sh \ - backtest_snapshots/fundamentals-backtest.sqlite -``` - -The first run builds two caches under `reports/.cache`: production candidate -replay and protocol-specific point-in-time fundamental scores. If interrupted, -rerun the same command; valid caches are reused. Cache keys include the protocol, -snapshot size, and mtime, so neither a protocol switch nor a new snapshot can -reuse incompatible scores. - -## 4. Bring the result back - -The final line names one ZIP such as: - -`reports/fundamentals-splitsafe-20260723-180000.zip` - -That ZIP contains: - -- the complete JSON report and reproducibility metadata; -- a readable Markdown summary; -- portfolio-arm CSV; -- factor-IC CSV; -- full-period trade CSV for every arm, allowing winner-concentration checks; -- this registered protocol. - -Copy the ZIP into this workspace or attach it in the conversation. The snapshot -itself is not needed for the first evaluation unless a result looks inconsistent. - -## Evaluation order - -1. Data coverage and the accepted-at range. -2. Individual factor IC: sign, magnitude, consistency, and cross-section size. -3. Composite IC in train, validation, and test. -4. Development selection made without the test window. -5. Test Sharpe, CAGR, drawdown, yearly returns, trial-corrected DSR, and trade - overlap versus control. -6. Sensitivity to a few dominant winners and whether the effect is economically - large enough to justify production complexity. - -The mechanical development bar requires train and validation Sharpe not below -control and validation drawdown no more than two percentage points worse. A test -pass is still research evidence, not automatic deployment. - -## Known limitation - -The snapshot contains today's tracked tickers, not historical constituent -membership or delisted names. This creates survivorship bias. The same biased -universe is used for control and overlays, so the local comparison is useful, -but its absolute Sharpe or CAGR must not be presented as an unbiased live -expectation. Forward paper performance remains the true out-of-sample check. +The experiment-only scorer, runner, Mac launcher, caches, tests, and expanded report bundles were removed after this decision. They remain recoverable from commits `eae4d34`, `34d6dda`, `7f944d7`, and `dba7ea7`. Production fundamentals derivation and ingestion remain unchanged. diff --git a/reports/fundamentals-overlay-20260723-135627-arms.csv b/reports/fundamentals-overlay-20260723-135627-arms.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 794ba30..0000000 --- a/reports/fundamentals-overlay-20260723-135627-arms.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,53 +0,0 @@ -arm,composite,weight,window,sharpe,sharpe_se,dsr,cagr_pct,max_drawdown_pct,calmar,trades,overlap_pct,top5_pnl_share_pct,avg_r_ex_top5 -control_w00,,0.0,train,1.26,0.764,0.4607,32.5,18.5,1.76,195,,67.83,0.2729 -control_w00,,0.0,validation,2.52,0.938,0.8309,71.3,14.8,4.82,106,,69.13,0.357 -control_w00,,0.0,test,1.99,0.81,0.7757,54.4,19.2,2.83,188,,62.82,0.1591 -control_w00,,0.0,full,1.86,0.49,0.9807,52.1,22.3,2.34,483,,38.74,0.4132 -quality_w10,quality,0.1,train,1.66,0.772,0.6629,45.4,16.9,2.68,183,57.5,63.51,0.2957 -quality_w10,quality,0.1,validation,2.44,0.941,0.8077,68.8,17.3,3.98,107,65.12,70.53,0.3518 -quality_w10,quality,0.1,test,1.7,0.805,0.6562,43.8,18.8,2.33,189,60.43,72.18,0.1424 -quality_w10,quality,0.1,full,1.91,0.493,0.9845,53.3,21.6,2.46,470,59.1,39.96,0.4105 -quality_w20,quality,0.2,train,1.64,0.77,0.6538,44.4,17.4,2.55,181,42.42,61.16,0.2545 -quality_w20,quality,0.2,validation,2.28,0.953,0.7551,59.4,18.6,3.19,111,53.9,79.91,0.3052 -quality_w20,quality,0.2,test,1.49,0.805,0.5562,35.9,18.6,1.93,189,44.44,80.74,0.136 -quality_w20,quality,0.2,full,1.75,0.493,0.9666,46.6,20.7,2.26,478,44.73,44.1,0.3938 -quality_w30,quality,0.3,train,1.69,0.767,0.6781,45.0,17.3,2.6,176,39.47,48.72,0.3464 -quality_w30,quality,0.3,validation,1.83,0.948,0.5869,42.9,18.8,2.28,111,51.75,83.6,0.2918 -quality_w30,quality,0.3,test,1.3,0.801,0.4621,28.9,18.6,1.56,189,41.73,94.0,0.1314 -quality_w30,quality,0.3,full,1.57,0.491,0.9297,39.1,19.6,2.0,469,41.25,43.46,0.4265 -quality_w40,quality,0.4,train,1.73,0.772,0.6954,46.5,18.2,2.55,190,31.85,48.84,0.3179 -quality_w40,quality,0.4,validation,1.58,0.944,0.4824,36.8,19.0,1.94,110,48.97,101.05,0.2815 -quality_w40,quality,0.4,test,1.18,0.812,0.4045,24.2,18.0,1.35,193,34.63,110.57,0.0845 -quality_w40,quality,0.4,full,1.39,0.494,0.8643,33.0,23.8,1.39,492,34.11,47.94,0.3366 -growth_w10,growth,0.1,train,1.24,0.769,0.4506,31.1,18.2,1.71,190,53.39,70.42,0.2227 -growth_w10,growth,0.1,validation,2.65,0.915,0.8695,74.6,11.6,6.41,103,74.17,67.49,0.4295 -growth_w10,growth,0.1,test,1.87,0.807,0.7297,52.4,18.9,2.77,197,61.09,69.9,0.1885 -growth_w10,growth,0.1,full,1.83,0.49,0.9776,51.5,21.6,2.39,485,58.43,42.2,0.4164 -growth_w20,growth,0.2,train,1.16,0.775,0.4105,27.3,17.8,1.53,189,42.75,83.96,0.1951 -growth_w20,growth,0.2,validation,1.99,0.945,0.6516,50.1,19.2,2.61,101,56.82,71.97,0.3987 -growth_w20,growth,0.2,test,1.59,0.8,0.6053,40.5,18.7,2.16,191,53.44,83.16,0.066 -growth_w20,growth,0.2,full,1.55,0.493,0.9232,39.3,21.1,1.86,477,49.07,45.99,0.3356 -growth_w30,growth,0.3,train,0.94,0.784,0.307,19.5,17.7,1.1,199,41.22,107.4,0.0981 -growth_w30,growth,0.3,validation,1.79,0.954,0.57,42.4,19.5,2.18,101,55.64,78.91,0.2995 -growth_w30,growth,0.3,test,1.32,0.8,0.472,31.5,18.3,1.72,198,47.33,92.89,0.066 -growth_w30,growth,0.3,full,1.29,0.496,0.8143,29.9,20.7,1.44,500,45.63,50.27,0.2876 -growth_w40,growth,0.4,train,1.08,0.785,0.3725,22.5,16.2,1.38,196,32.54,101.48,0.1686 -growth_w40,growth,0.4,validation,1.96,0.956,0.6383,48.1,19.3,2.5,101,55.64,80.82,0.2926 -growth_w40,growth,0.4,test,1.45,0.799,0.5368,36.3,17.8,2.03,193,50.59,84.67,0.0155 -growth_w40,growth,0.4,full,1.47,0.495,0.896,35.6,26.0,1.37,487,40.99,46.88,0.2959 -balanced_w10,balanced,0.1,train,1.66,0.773,0.6627,45.7,18.5,2.47,191,62.87,63.37,0.2536 -balanced_w10,balanced,0.1,validation,2.42,0.931,0.8044,64.1,17.4,3.69,105,64.84,75.23,0.4326 -balanced_w10,balanced,0.1,test,2.05,0.808,0.7978,57.6,18.9,3.04,186,56.49,62.34,0.2001 -balanced_w10,balanced,0.1,full,2.0,0.493,0.9903,57.4,21.4,2.69,471,58.21,38.56,0.4343 -balanced_w20,balanced,0.2,train,1.5,0.774,0.5842,40.3,16.2,2.49,186,48.25,69.56,0.2281 -balanced_w20,balanced,0.2,validation,1.94,0.945,0.6319,45.7,18.5,2.47,113,58.7,78.45,0.3889 -balanced_w20,balanced,0.2,test,1.99,0.805,0.7771,52.6,18.3,2.88,189,46.12,61.78,0.2105 -balanced_w20,balanced,0.2,full,1.71,0.493,0.96,45.6,19.3,2.37,481,47.18,37.87,0.4034 -balanced_w30,balanced,0.3,train,1.11,0.774,0.3854,26.5,17.1,1.55,201,37.98,82.7,0.1461 -balanced_w30,balanced,0.3,validation,1.9,0.94,0.6164,47.7,17.3,2.76,104,60.31,89.47,0.3487 -balanced_w30,balanced,0.3,test,1.54,0.799,0.5812,37.9,18.3,2.08,197,45.83,82.89,0.1937 -balanced_w30,balanced,0.3,full,1.52,0.492,0.9144,39.4,21.3,1.85,496,43.55,47.61,0.3639 -balanced_w40,balanced,0.4,train,1.16,0.782,0.4113,25.9,16.2,1.6,202,34.58,77.25,0.1727 -balanced_w40,balanced,0.4,validation,2.07,0.943,0.6827,56.2,18.4,3.06,103,50.36,80.3,0.2394 -balanced_w40,balanced,0.4,test,1.29,0.807,0.4574,30.0,17.8,1.68,202,46.62,91.39,0.1051 -balanced_w40,balanced,0.4,full,1.34,0.496,0.8401,32.3,26.4,1.22,507,40.83,51.04,0.3014 diff --git a/reports/fundamentals-overlay-20260723-135627-factor-ic.csv b/reports/fundamentals-overlay-20260723-135627-factor-ic.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 84c94f5..0000000 --- a/reports/fundamentals-overlay-20260723-135627-factor-ic.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,37 +0,0 @@ -window,signal,mean_ic,ic_t_stat,ic_positive_pct,mean_quintile_spread,weeks,avg_cross_section,reliable -train,share_count_change_yoy,0.0389,1.97,61.9,0.0029,21,435.5,True -train,net_debt_to_ebitda,0.0141,0.46,61.9,0.0098,21,183.9,True -train,balanced,0.0065,0.2,57.1,0.0007,21,381.2,True -train,quality,0.0038,0.19,47.6,-0.0033,21,396.6,True -train,revenue_growth_yoy,0.0006,0.02,47.6,0.0044,21,406.8,True -train,fcf_margin,-0.006,-0.29,38.1,-0.0044,21,365.3,True -train,growth,-0.0077,-0.26,47.6,0.003,21,442.5,True -train,eps_growth_yoy,-0.0152,-0.65,52.4,-0.004,21,370.2,True -train,operating_margin,-0.0288,-1.36,28.6,-0.0131,21,333.3,True -validation,growth,0.0558,1.21,55.6,0.0177,9,450.9,False -validation,revenue_growth_yoy,0.0485,0.95,55.6,0.0205,9,416.7,False -validation,balanced,0.0483,1.06,55.6,0.0126,9,387.9,False -validation,eps_growth_yoy,0.0473,1.44,55.6,0.014,9,393.8,False -validation,fcf_margin,0.0268,0.84,66.7,0.0003,9,368.0,False -validation,net_debt_to_ebitda,0.0066,0.12,55.6,0.0104,9,184.6,False -validation,quality,-0.0029,-0.14,44.4,-0.0002,9,401.0,False -validation,operating_margin,-0.0056,-0.18,44.4,-0.0058,9,338.3,False -validation,share_count_change_yoy,-0.0169,-0.52,55.6,-0.0098,9,439.9,False -test,eps_growth_yoy,0.0182,0.88,46.2,0.0071,13,415.7,True -test,share_count_change_yoy,0.0142,0.78,61.5,-0.0147,13,451.9,True -test,growth,0.011,0.32,46.2,0.0047,13,463.6,True -test,revenue_growth_yoy,0.0053,0.14,46.2,0.0046,13,429.3,True -test,net_debt_to_ebitda,-0.0082,-0.19,61.5,-0.0043,13,195.5,True -test,balanced,-0.0176,-0.47,38.5,-0.0147,13,402.2,True -test,quality,-0.0386,-1.59,30.8,-0.0257,13,419.6,True -test,operating_margin,-0.0436,-1.52,38.5,-0.0279,13,349.5,True -test,fcf_margin,-0.0535,-1.99,30.8,-0.0307,13,380.4,True -full,share_count_change_yoy,0.0161,1.16,54.8,-0.0052,42,441.3,True -full,growth,0.0123,0.65,54.8,0.0067,42,450.5,True -full,revenue_growth_yoy,0.0116,0.55,47.6,0.0069,42,415.5,True -full,eps_growth_yoy,0.008,0.58,57.1,0.003,42,388.5,True -full,balanced,0.0071,0.36,54.8,-0.0014,42,388.9,True -full,net_debt_to_ebitda,0.006,0.29,54.8,0.0037,42,187.9,True -full,quality,-0.0109,-0.85,45.2,-0.0092,42,404.5,True -full,fcf_margin,-0.0161,-1.04,35.7,-0.0123,42,370.5,True -full,operating_margin,-0.0252,-1.74,33.3,-0.017,42,339.2,True diff --git a/reports/fundamentals-overlay-20260723-135627-trades.csv b/reports/fundamentals-overlay-20260723-135627-trades.csv deleted file mode 100644 index 8bd2152..0000000 --- a/reports/fundamentals-overlay-20260723-135627-trades.csv +++ /dev/null @@ -1,6297 +0,0 @@ -arm,symbol,entry_date,exit_date,r,pnl,reason,hold,entry,exit,risk_dollars -control_w00,ANET,2022-06-24,2022-06-29,-1.0,-103.37492274806932,stop,3,24.96,, -control_w00,IRM,2022-06-24,2022-07-13,-1.0,-103.82251085231773,stop,12,49.46,, -control_w00,PANW,2022-06-24,2022-07-14,-1.0,-103.08685124345979,stop,13,85.12,, -control_w00,REGN,2022-06-24,2022-07-18,-1.0,-100.72422908655027,stop,15,612.49,, -control_w00,PFE,2022-06-24,2022-07-28,-0.7267195767195778,-67.80955966157887,trailing_stop,23,51.59,, -control_w00,DVN,2022-07-28,2022-08-04,-1.0,-110.40215607028928,stop,5,60.37,, -control_w00,LYV,2022-08-04,2022-08-05,-1.0,-64.1278927969482,stop,1,97.5,, -control_w00,FIX,2022-06-24,2022-08-08,4.201325540884595,161.84470748349145,time,30,83.02,, -control_w00,KLAC,2022-07-14,2022-08-09,1.768653049764865,170.17809309792054,trailing_stop,18,31.91,, -control_w00,COST,2022-06-29,2022-08-11,2.9468331939305483,214.45365557105163,time,30,469.84,, -control_w00,SNPS,2022-07-13,2022-08-19,3.9602255340482144,163.40596956553256,trailing_stop,27,303.07,, -control_w00,BLDR,2022-08-08,2022-08-22,-1.122579584551615,-58.25192067748323,stop,10,69.78,, -control_w00,TSLA,2022-07-13,2022-08-24,2.7455497956608825,266.4362786003152,time,30,237.04,, -control_w00,ANET,2022-07-14,2022-08-25,4.904280490428048,7.543221061125577,time,30,24.78,, -control_w00,ON,2022-07-18,2022-08-29,3.602333976165748,350.19821593514524,time,30,54.95,, -control_w00,EQT,2022-07-18,2022-08-29,3.4170006327778912,180.2553943590756,time,30,37.86,, -control_w00,MOS,2022-08-09,2022-08-31,0.3470723835869064,33.72695559697577,trailing_stop,16,54.01,, -control_w00,HAL,2022-08-29,2022-08-31,-1.2009690222153482,-145.33656232560782,stop,2,31.9,, -control_w00,TRGP,2022-08-29,2022-08-31,-1.3707729468599064,-32.178663631957505,stop,2,71.11,, -control_w00,MPC,2022-07-28,2022-09-01,1.4624855076464438,46.01328563425077,trailing_stop,25,89.59,, -control_w00,ALB,2022-08-05,2022-09-01,1.761405907546294,132.7932059646981,trailing_stop,19,237.99,, -control_w00,STLD,2022-08-31,2022-09-01,-1.0,-115.17243220050771,stop,1,80.72,, -control_w00,PANW,2022-08-22,2022-09-06,0.4934431444629017,19.78507742537393,trailing_stop,10,84.68,, -control_w00,COP,2022-08-24,2022-09-07,-1.0,-69.9660004581706,stop,9,110.52,, -control_w00,COR,2022-08-31,2022-09-13,-1.0,-0.9418641320251965,stop,8,146.56,, -control_w00,NUE,2022-09-07,2022-09-14,-0.903584595196936,-62.7842724289714,trailing_stop,5,135.61,, -control_w00,DVN,2022-08-19,2022-09-16,-0.6642417156528438,-77.07071881262542,trailing_stop,19,68.51,, -control_w00,ADM,2022-09-01,2022-09-16,-0.9351883715975945,-74.47729562644642,trailing_stop,10,87.58,, -control_w00,FANG,2022-08-25,2022-09-19,-1.1040854626822585,-2.529309057809067,stop,16,136.28,, -control_w00,F,2022-09-02,2022-09-20,-1.3973228860594182,-116.3024820727129,stop,11,15.16,, -control_w00,TRGP,2022-09-06,2022-09-22,-0.6548995062243557,-32.5832820672275,trailing_stop,12,68.05,, -control_w00,APA,2022-08-11,2022-09-23,0.060725186570144855,4.19356780088234,trailing_stop,30,34.84,, -control_w00,SLB,2022-08-31,2022-09-23,-1.0,-114.96428913064142,stop,16,38.15,, -control_w00,EOG,2022-09-13,2022-09-23,-1.4019702155902072,-2.0753977461644575,stop,8,122.91,, -control_w00,MOS,2022-09-14,2022-09-23,-1.0,-83.88289615312392,stop,7,53.9,, -control_w00,CVX,2022-09-20,2022-09-23,-1.058638522769647,-91.81325475353522,stop,3,156.28,, -control_w00,ADM,2022-09-20,2022-09-23,-1.0,-40.36248750539586,stop,3,86.75,, -control_w00,ABBV,2022-09-16,2022-09-30,-1.0,-70.19456897448859,stop,10,144.06,, -control_w00,TTD,2022-09-28,2022-10-07,-1.0,-102.38114083704865,stop,7,62.96,, -control_w00,ANET,2022-10-03,2022-10-10,-0.9355601948503821,-96.0713992101128,trailing_stop,5,28.96,, 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-quality_w20,CVNA,2024-11-06,2024-12-18,-0.3099160512529215,-5.331786940526931,trailing_stop,29,47.79,, -quality_w20,DASH,2024-12-17,2024-12-18,-1.0,-228.07634405441235,stop,1,177.0,, -quality_w20,HOOD,2024-11-13,2024-12-20,1.228737088661061,348.38840583206905,trailing_stop,26,31.91,, -quality_w20,EBAY,2024-12-12,2024-12-30,-1.0,-238.45385593780787,stop,11,63.9,, -quality_w20,GM,2024-12-26,2025-01-02,-1.0,-257.00866971205267,stop,4,54.18,, -quality_w20,CEG,2025-01-03,2025-01-08,-1.0,-305.57618985636833,stop,3,252.4,, -quality_w20,GM,2025-01-06,2025-01-08,-1.0,-279.52409033788274,stop,2,53.53,, -quality_w20,NVDA,2024-12-27,2025-01-13,-0.9269712995424547,-283.4959613121089,trailing_stop,9,137.01,, -quality_w20,LDOS,2025-01-13,2025-01-23,-0.4143559290758687,-91.68680986485512,trailing_stop,7,152.64,, -quality_w20,WMB,2025-01-03,2025-01-27,0.09127940332759728,4.771016132751816,trailing_stop,14,56.6,, 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-quality_w20,FICO,2025-04-14,2025-04-21,-1.0,-276.8312767399805,stop,4,1932.74,, -quality_w20,AWK,2025-04-14,2025-04-25,-1.0,-230.31971739765314,stop,8,148.83,, -quality_w20,WMT,2025-04-11,2025-05-15,-0.0030145540319659503,-10.524571478963308,trailing_stop,23,92.8,, -quality_w20,FICO,2025-04-25,2025-05-20,0.6107829966069024,161.45855530815103,trailing_stop,17,1952.31,, -quality_w20,GEV,2025-04-09,2025-05-22,3.3770396605820623,898.934372904976,time,30,326.81,, -quality_w20,CVNA,2025-04-10,2025-05-23,2.7967452511711124,741.8610819408984,time,30,40.73,, -quality_w20,TPR,2025-05-20,2025-05-23,-1.2881983248615076,-398.0225141714293,stop,3,82.52,, -quality_w20,AXON,2025-04-11,2025-05-27,3.599070425381428,955.8871113196446,time,30,567.98,, -quality_w20,RKLB,2025-04-14,2025-05-28,3.2891976707110375,880.6165344939867,time,30,19.13,, -quality_w20,TSLA,2025-04-14,2025-05-28,2.878785375605082,769.8568898558385,time,30,252.35,, 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"exit_date": "2026-07-10" - } - ] - } - ], - "development_grades": { - "quality_w10": { - "pass": false, - "checks": { - "train_sharpe_not_worse": true, - "validation_sharpe_not_worse": false, - "validation_drawdown_within_2pp": false - }, - "train_sharpe_delta": 0.4, - "validation_sharpe_delta": -0.08 - }, - "quality_w20": { - "pass": false, - "checks": { - "train_sharpe_not_worse": true, - "validation_sharpe_not_worse": false, - "validation_drawdown_within_2pp": false - }, - "train_sharpe_delta": 0.38, - "validation_sharpe_delta": -0.24 - }, - "quality_w30": { - "pass": false, - "checks": { - "train_sharpe_not_worse": true, - "validation_sharpe_not_worse": false, - "validation_drawdown_within_2pp": false - }, - "train_sharpe_delta": 0.43, - "validation_sharpe_delta": -0.69 - }, - "quality_w40": { - "pass": false, - "checks": { - "train_sharpe_not_worse": true, - "validation_sharpe_not_worse": false, - "validation_drawdown_within_2pp": false - }, - "train_sharpe_delta": 0.47, - "validation_sharpe_delta": -0.94 - }, - "growth_w10": { - "pass": false, - "checks": { - "train_sharpe_not_worse": false, - "validation_sharpe_not_worse": true, - "validation_drawdown_within_2pp": true - }, - "train_sharpe_delta": -0.02, - "validation_sharpe_delta": 0.13 - }, - "growth_w20": { - "pass": false, - "checks": { - "train_sharpe_not_worse": false, - "validation_sharpe_not_worse": false, - "validation_drawdown_within_2pp": false - }, - "train_sharpe_delta": -0.1, - "validation_sharpe_delta": -0.53 - }, - "growth_w30": { - "pass": false, - "checks": { - "train_sharpe_not_worse": false, - "validation_sharpe_not_worse": false, - "validation_drawdown_within_2pp": false - }, - "train_sharpe_delta": -0.32, - "validation_sharpe_delta": -0.73 - }, - "growth_w40": { - "pass": false, - "checks": { - "train_sharpe_not_worse": false, - "validation_sharpe_not_worse": false, - "validation_drawdown_within_2pp": false - }, - "train_sharpe_delta": -0.18, - "validation_sharpe_delta": -0.56 - }, - "balanced_w10": { - "pass": false, - "checks": { - "train_sharpe_not_worse": true, - "validation_sharpe_not_worse": false, - "validation_drawdown_within_2pp": false - }, - "train_sharpe_delta": 0.4, - "validation_sharpe_delta": -0.1 - }, - "balanced_w20": { - "pass": false, - "checks": { - "train_sharpe_not_worse": true, - "validation_sharpe_not_worse": false, - "validation_drawdown_within_2pp": false - }, - "train_sharpe_delta": 0.24, - "validation_sharpe_delta": -0.58 - }, - "balanced_w30": { - "pass": false, - "checks": { - "train_sharpe_not_worse": false, - "validation_sharpe_not_worse": false, - "validation_drawdown_within_2pp": false - }, - "train_sharpe_delta": -0.15, - "validation_sharpe_delta": -0.62 - }, - "balanced_w40": { - "pass": false, - "checks": { - "train_sharpe_not_worse": false, - "validation_sharpe_not_worse": false, - "validation_drawdown_within_2pp": false - }, - "train_sharpe_delta": -0.1, - "validation_sharpe_delta": -0.45 - } - }, - "development_selection": null, - "final_check": null, - "completed_at": "2026-07-23T14:06:32.680439+00:00" -} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/reports/fundamentals-overlay-20260723-135627.md b/reports/fundamentals-overlay-20260723-135627.md deleted file mode 100644 index 0be183d..0000000 --- a/reports/fundamentals-overlay-20260723-135627.md +++ /dev/null @@ -1,123 +0,0 @@ -# Point-in-time fundamentals overlay research - -Generated: 2026-07-23T14:06:10.423614+00:00 - -## Protocol - -- Train ends before **2024-01-01**. -- Validation runs until **2025-01-01**. -- Test starts at that date and is not used to select the arm. -- Qualification is unchanged; fundamentals only reorder qualified longs. -- SEC filings become visible at midnight New York time after acceptance. -- Pre-registered portfolio trials for DSR: **13**. - -## Data warnings - -- Current tracked universe only: historical constituent membership and delisted names are unavailable, so absolute results have survivorship bias. -- Historical valuation is excluded because split-adjusted bars cannot be safely combined with filing-time EPS and shares without split factors. -- Earnings surprise is excluded because the completed SUE study already failed its promotion bar for this strategy. -- The test window remains research evidence, not a pristine future sample; live paper performance is still the final out-of-sample check. - -## Factor IC - -| window | signal | IC | t | positive | quintile spread | weeks | N | -|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| -| train | share_count_change_yoy | 0.0389 | 1.97 | 61.9 | 0.0029 | 21 | 435.5 | -| train | net_debt_to_ebitda | 0.0141 | 0.46 | 61.9 | 0.0098 | 21 | 183.9 | -| train | balanced | 0.0065 | 0.2 | 57.1 | 0.0007 | 21 | 381.2 | -| train | quality | 0.0038 | 0.19 | 47.6 | -0.0033 | 21 | 396.6 | -| train | revenue_growth_yoy | 0.0006 | 0.02 | 47.6 | 0.0044 | 21 | 406.8 | -| train | fcf_margin | -0.006 | -0.29 | 38.1 | -0.0044 | 21 | 365.3 | -| train | growth | -0.0077 | -0.26 | 47.6 | 0.003 | 21 | 442.5 | -| train | eps_growth_yoy | -0.0152 | -0.65 | 52.4 | -0.004 | 21 | 370.2 | -| train | operating_margin | -0.0288 | -1.36 | 28.6 | -0.0131 | 21 | 333.3 | -| validation | growth | 0.0558 | 1.21 | 55.6 | 0.0177 | 9 | 450.9 | -| validation | revenue_growth_yoy | 0.0485 | 0.95 | 55.6 | 0.0205 | 9 | 416.7 | -| validation | balanced | 0.0483 | 1.06 | 55.6 | 0.0126 | 9 | 387.9 | -| validation | eps_growth_yoy | 0.0473 | 1.44 | 55.6 | 0.014 | 9 | 393.8 | -| validation | fcf_margin | 0.0268 | 0.84 | 66.7 | 0.0003 | 9 | 368 | -| validation | net_debt_to_ebitda | 0.0066 | 0.12 | 55.6 | 0.0104 | 9 | 184.6 | -| validation | quality | -0.0029 | -0.14 | 44.4 | -0.0002 | 9 | 401 | -| validation | operating_margin | -0.0056 | -0.18 | 44.4 | -0.0058 | 9 | 338.3 | -| validation | share_count_change_yoy | -0.0169 | -0.52 | 55.6 | -0.0098 | 9 | 439.9 | -| test | eps_growth_yoy | 0.0182 | 0.88 | 46.2 | 0.0071 | 13 | 415.7 | -| test | share_count_change_yoy | 0.0142 | 0.78 | 61.5 | -0.0147 | 13 | 451.9 | -| test | growth | 0.011 | 0.32 | 46.2 | 0.0047 | 13 | 463.6 | -| test | revenue_growth_yoy | 0.0053 | 0.14 | 46.2 | 0.0046 | 13 | 429.3 | -| test | net_debt_to_ebitda | -0.0082 | -0.19 | 61.5 | -0.0043 | 13 | 195.5 | -| test | balanced | -0.0176 | -0.47 | 38.5 | -0.0147 | 13 | 402.2 | -| test | quality | -0.0386 | -1.59 | 30.8 | -0.0257 | 13 | 419.6 | -| test | operating_margin | -0.0436 | -1.52 | 38.5 | -0.0279 | 13 | 349.5 | -| test | fcf_margin | -0.0535 | -1.99 | 30.8 | -0.0307 | 13 | 380.4 | -| full | share_count_change_yoy | 0.0161 | 1.16 | 54.8 | -0.0052 | 42 | 441.3 | -| full | growth | 0.0123 | 0.65 | 54.8 | 0.0067 | 42 | 450.5 | -| full | revenue_growth_yoy | 0.0116 | 0.55 | 47.6 | 0.0069 | 42 | 415.5 | -| full | eps_growth_yoy | 0.008 | 0.58 | 57.1 | 0.003 | 42 | 388.5 | -| full | balanced | 0.0071 | 0.36 | 54.8 | -0.0014 | 42 | 388.9 | -| full | net_debt_to_ebitda | 0.006 | 0.29 | 54.8 | 0.0037 | 42 | 187.9 | -| full | quality | -0.0109 | -0.85 | 45.2 | -0.0092 | 42 | 404.5 | -| full | fcf_margin | -0.0161 | -1.04 | 35.7 | -0.0123 | 42 | 370.5 | -| full | operating_margin | -0.0252 | -1.74 | 33.3 | -0.017 | 42 | 339.2 | - -## Portfolio arms - -| arm | window | Sharpe | SE | DSR | CAGR | MaxDD | Calmar | trades | overlap | -|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| -| control_w00 | train | 1.26 | 0.764 | 0.4607 | 32.5 | 18.5 | 1.76 | 195 | — | -| control_w00 | validation | 2.52 | 0.938 | 0.8309 | 71.3 | 14.8 | 4.82 | 106 | — | -| control_w00 | test | 1.99 | 0.81 | 0.7757 | 54.4 | 19.2 | 2.83 | 188 | — | -| control_w00 | full | 1.86 | 0.49 | 0.9807 | 52.1 | 22.3 | 2.34 | 483 | — | -| quality_w10 | train | 1.66 | 0.772 | 0.6629 | 45.4 | 16.9 | 2.68 | 183 | 57.5 | -| quality_w10 | validation | 2.44 | 0.941 | 0.8077 | 68.8 | 17.3 | 3.98 | 107 | 65.12 | -| quality_w10 | test | 1.7 | 0.805 | 0.6562 | 43.8 | 18.8 | 2.33 | 189 | 60.43 | -| quality_w10 | full | 1.91 | 0.493 | 0.9845 | 53.3 | 21.6 | 2.46 | 470 | 59.1 | -| quality_w20 | train | 1.64 | 0.77 | 0.6538 | 44.4 | 17.4 | 2.55 | 181 | 42.42 | -| quality_w20 | validation | 2.28 | 0.953 | 0.7551 | 59.4 | 18.6 | 3.19 | 111 | 53.9 | -| quality_w20 | test | 1.49 | 0.805 | 0.5562 | 35.9 | 18.6 | 1.93 | 189 | 44.44 | -| quality_w20 | full | 1.75 | 0.493 | 0.9666 | 46.6 | 20.7 | 2.26 | 478 | 44.73 | -| quality_w30 | train | 1.69 | 0.767 | 0.6781 | 45 | 17.3 | 2.6 | 176 | 39.47 | -| quality_w30 | validation | 1.83 | 0.948 | 0.5869 | 42.9 | 18.8 | 2.28 | 111 | 51.75 | -| quality_w30 | test | 1.3 | 0.801 | 0.4621 | 28.9 | 18.6 | 1.56 | 189 | 41.73 | -| quality_w30 | full | 1.57 | 0.491 | 0.9297 | 39.1 | 19.6 | 2 | 469 | 41.25 | -| quality_w40 | train | 1.73 | 0.772 | 0.6954 | 46.5 | 18.2 | 2.55 | 190 | 31.85 | -| quality_w40 | validation | 1.58 | 0.944 | 0.4824 | 36.8 | 19 | 1.94 | 110 | 48.97 | -| quality_w40 | test | 1.18 | 0.812 | 0.4045 | 24.2 | 18 | 1.35 | 193 | 34.63 | -| quality_w40 | full | 1.39 | 0.494 | 0.8643 | 33 | 23.8 | 1.39 | 492 | 34.11 | -| growth_w10 | train | 1.24 | 0.769 | 0.4506 | 31.1 | 18.2 | 1.71 | 190 | 53.39 | -| growth_w10 | validation | 2.65 | 0.915 | 0.8695 | 74.6 | 11.6 | 6.41 | 103 | 74.17 | -| growth_w10 | test | 1.87 | 0.807 | 0.7297 | 52.4 | 18.9 | 2.77 | 197 | 61.09 | -| growth_w10 | full | 1.83 | 0.49 | 0.9776 | 51.5 | 21.6 | 2.39 | 485 | 58.43 | -| growth_w20 | train | 1.16 | 0.775 | 0.4105 | 27.3 | 17.8 | 1.53 | 189 | 42.75 | -| growth_w20 | validation | 1.99 | 0.945 | 0.6516 | 50.1 | 19.2 | 2.61 | 101 | 56.82 | -| growth_w20 | test | 1.59 | 0.8 | 0.6053 | 40.5 | 18.7 | 2.16 | 191 | 53.44 | -| growth_w20 | full | 1.55 | 0.493 | 0.9232 | 39.3 | 21.1 | 1.86 | 477 | 49.07 | -| growth_w30 | train | 0.94 | 0.784 | 0.307 | 19.5 | 17.7 | 1.1 | 199 | 41.22 | -| growth_w30 | validation | 1.79 | 0.954 | 0.57 | 42.4 | 19.5 | 2.18 | 101 | 55.64 | -| growth_w30 | test | 1.32 | 0.8 | 0.472 | 31.5 | 18.3 | 1.72 | 198 | 47.33 | -| growth_w30 | full | 1.29 | 0.496 | 0.8143 | 29.9 | 20.7 | 1.44 | 500 | 45.63 | -| growth_w40 | train | 1.08 | 0.785 | 0.3725 | 22.5 | 16.2 | 1.38 | 196 | 32.54 | -| growth_w40 | validation | 1.96 | 0.956 | 0.6383 | 48.1 | 19.3 | 2.5 | 101 | 55.64 | -| growth_w40 | test | 1.45 | 0.799 | 0.5368 | 36.3 | 17.8 | 2.03 | 193 | 50.59 | -| growth_w40 | full | 1.47 | 0.495 | 0.896 | 35.6 | 26 | 1.37 | 487 | 40.99 | -| balanced_w10 | train | 1.66 | 0.773 | 0.6627 | 45.7 | 18.5 | 2.47 | 191 | 62.87 | -| balanced_w10 | validation | 2.42 | 0.931 | 0.8044 | 64.1 | 17.4 | 3.69 | 105 | 64.84 | -| balanced_w10 | test | 2.05 | 0.808 | 0.7978 | 57.6 | 18.9 | 3.04 | 186 | 56.49 | -| balanced_w10 | full | 2 | 0.493 | 0.9903 | 57.4 | 21.4 | 2.69 | 471 | 58.21 | -| balanced_w20 | train | 1.5 | 0.774 | 0.5842 | 40.3 | 16.2 | 2.49 | 186 | 48.25 | -| balanced_w20 | validation | 1.94 | 0.945 | 0.6319 | 45.7 | 18.5 | 2.47 | 113 | 58.7 | -| balanced_w20 | test | 1.99 | 0.805 | 0.7771 | 52.6 | 18.3 | 2.88 | 189 | 46.12 | -| balanced_w20 | full | 1.71 | 0.493 | 0.96 | 45.6 | 19.3 | 2.37 | 481 | 47.18 | -| balanced_w30 | train | 1.11 | 0.774 | 0.3854 | 26.5 | 17.1 | 1.55 | 201 | 37.98 | -| balanced_w30 | validation | 1.9 | 0.94 | 0.6164 | 47.7 | 17.3 | 2.76 | 104 | 60.31 | -| balanced_w30 | test | 1.54 | 0.799 | 0.5812 | 37.9 | 18.3 | 2.08 | 197 | 45.83 | -| balanced_w30 | full | 1.52 | 0.492 | 0.9144 | 39.4 | 21.3 | 1.85 | 496 | 43.55 | -| balanced_w40 | train | 1.16 | 0.782 | 0.4113 | 25.9 | 16.2 | 1.6 | 202 | 34.58 | -| balanced_w40 | validation | 2.07 | 0.943 | 0.6827 | 56.2 | 18.4 | 3.06 | 103 | 50.36 | -| balanced_w40 | test | 1.29 | 0.807 | 0.4574 | 30 | 17.8 | 1.68 | 202 | 46.62 | -| balanced_w40 | full | 1.34 | 0.496 | 0.8401 | 32.3 | 26.4 | 1.22 | 507 | 40.83 | - -## Mechanical selection - -- No overlay passed the train + validation requirements. - -Production remains unchanged pending human review. diff --git a/reports/fundamentals-overlay-20260723-135627.zip b/reports/fundamentals-overlay-20260723-135627.zip deleted file mode 100644 index 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