feat(risk-monitor): measure the rule that fires, and give fundamentals their own channel

The Warning study measured a fitted percentile crossing that nothing consumes.
What reaches Telegram is a quadrant change: fixed 50/40 dividers, hysteresis,
two-session confirmation, 3-day cooldown. Those thresholds are constants, not
fits, so there is no training set to protect and all 11 detected corrections are
evaluable instead of the 4 that fell in a holdout.

Replaying it: 1/10 corrections, 0.9 false alarms/year. Random alarms at the same
firing rate match or beat that in 65% of draws. The panel now carries ablations
(does the quadrant machinery earn its place?), external baselines (does the score
earn its complexity?), and that null, because a bare "2 of 4" was unreadable in
either direction. Nothing in the alert path was retuned on the strength of it.

Fundamentals become a third channel rather than a term in either score. v3 cut
them arguing 12+8 of 100 points "could not change any published conclusion" --
true only when every technical sensor reads zero; weighted they moved the bar for
the 40 divider from 40 to 25. But no fusion weight is measurable either: with ~10
events and no fundamental history, any weight is a policy preference presented as
a measurement. So the read is a categorical state (supportive/neutral/adverse/
unknown) with an evidence grade, derived by fixed rules from stored facts, read
by confluence. The LLM extracts and explains; it does not score.

Absence stays absence throughout. `unknown` is unreachable by averaging, a stale
or empty observation may display but never confirm, extraction failures map to
`unknown` rather than `mixed`, and the study rows are coverage-matched and marked
not-measurable until enough corrections are covered -- otherwise a fortnight of
observations renders as 0/10 and reads as a failed test.

Observations become a real time series (migration 033); they lived in a single
overwritten settings slot, so no history existed to replay. Pre-rename snapshots
are adapted rather than discarded. METHODOLOGY stays v4 -- no score changed --
so no reseed; STUDY_SCHEMA moves to 3 and discards the cached report.

Post-deploy: re-run Event Study from Admin -> Jobs. The panel reads "not run yet"
until then.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

alembic/versions/033_regime_fundamental_observations.py

@@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
+"""Point-in-time history for the sourced fundamental observation
+
+Revision ID: 033
+Revises: 032
+Create Date: 2026-08-12 00:00:00.000000
+
+The hyperscaler capex / "good news, stock down" read lived in a single
+``SystemSetting`` slot, so each refresh overwrote the last and no history
+existed. The read is now a categorical channel reported alongside State and
+Warning (never a term in either), and a channel with no history cannot be
+replayed: a snapshot rebuild would record every historical session as if nothing
+had ever been observed, and the event study could not measure the channel at all.
+
+Keyed on ``effective_date`` (the session the observation becomes usable on,
+normally the next weekday) rather than ``fetched_at``, because that is the gate
+that stops a rebuild stamping today's reading onto historical rows.
+
+The table starts empty. ``update_regime_monitor`` records the currently stored
+observation on its next run, so a deployment does not lose the live reading —
+but genuine history does not exist and cannot be invented here. Backfilling it
+from the SEC capex line and earnings-date reactions is separate work; until then
+every historical session reads ``unknown``, which is the honest value rather than
+a guessed one.
+"""
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+
+revision: str = "033"
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = "032"
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    op.create_table(
+        "regime_fundamental_observations",
+        sa.Column("id", sa.Integer(), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column("effective_date", sa.Date(), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column("f1_score", sa.Float(), nullable=True),
+        sa.Column("f3_score", sa.Float(), nullable=True),
+        sa.Column("capex_json", sa.Text(), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column("good_news_stock_down", sa.String(length=10), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column("reasoning", sa.Text(), nullable=True),
+        sa.Column("source", sa.String(length=30), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column("fetched_at", sa.DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column("created_at", sa.DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=False),
+        sa.PrimaryKeyConstraint("id"),
+        sa.UniqueConstraint(
+            "effective_date", name="uq_regime_fundamental_observations_effective_date"
+        ),
+    )
+    op.create_index(
+        "ix_regime_fundamental_observations_effective_date",
+        "regime_fundamental_observations",
+        ["effective_date"],
+    )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_index(
+        "ix_regime_fundamental_observations_effective_date",
+        table_name="regime_fundamental_observations",
+    )
+    op.drop_table("regime_fundamental_observations")

app/models/__init__.py

@@ -14,6 +14,7 @@ from app.models.settings import SystemSetting, IngestionProgress
 from app.models.alert import AlertLog
 from app.models.paper_trade import PaperTrade
 from app.models.regime_snapshot import RegimeSnapshot
+from app.models.regime_fundamental_observation import RegimeFundamentalObservation
 from app.models.benchmark_price import BenchmarkPrice
 from app.models.signal_context_snapshot import SignalContextSnapshot
 from app.models.system_event import SystemEvent
@@ -39,6 +40,7 @@ __all__ = [
     "AlertLog",
     "PaperTrade",
     "RegimeSnapshot",
+    "RegimeFundamentalObservation",
     "BenchmarkPrice",
     "SignalContextSnapshot",
     "SystemEvent",

app/models/regime_fundamental_observation.py

@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+from datetime import date as date_type
+from datetime import datetime
+
+from sqlalchemy import Date, DateTime, Float, String, Text
+from sqlalchemy.orm import Mapped, mapped_column
+
+from app.database import Base
+
+
+class RegimeFundamentalObservation(Base):
+    """Point-in-time record of the sourced hyperscaler capex / earnings read.
+
+    One row per ``effective_date`` (unique, upserted). Before this table the
+    observation lived in a single ``SystemSetting`` slot, so every refresh
+    overwrote the previous one and no history existed at all — which made the
+    read impossible to replay, impossible to backtest, and meant a snapshot
+    rebuild could only ever score historical sessions as if nothing had been
+    observed.
+
+    The read is a categorical channel reported beside State and Warning, never a
+    term in either, so this series is not a scoring input. It is the record that
+    makes the channel replayable at all -- and the only route to eventually
+    testing whether it improves prediction conditional on Warning, which is the
+    one thing that could justify combining the channels later.
+
+    ``effective_date`` rather than ``fetched_at`` is the key: it is the session
+    the observation becomes usable on (normally the next weekday), and the gate
+    that stops a rebuild stamping today's reading onto historical rows.
+    """
+
+    __tablename__ = "regime_fundamental_observations"
+
+    id: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(primary_key=True)
+    effective_date: Mapped[date_type] = mapped_column(
+        Date, nullable=False, unique=True, index=True
+    )
+    f1_score: Mapped[float | None] = mapped_column(Float, nullable=True)
+    f3_score: Mapped[float | None] = mapped_column(Float, nullable=True)
+    capex_json: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(Text, nullable=False)
+    good_news_stock_down: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(10), nullable=False)
+    reasoning: Mapped[str | None] = mapped_column(Text, nullable=True)
+    source: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(30), nullable=False)
+    fetched_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=False)
+    created_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=False)

app/scheduler.py

@@ -1351,8 +1351,11 @@ async def run_event_study_job() -> None:
             report = await run_event_study_and_store(db)
 
         _runtime_progress(job_name, processed=1, total=1)
+        shipped = report.get("shipped") or {}
         if report.get("available"):
-            metrics = report.get("metrics") or {}
+            # The shipped quadrant rule is the headline; the fitted-threshold
+            # variant lives under report["fitted"] and is not what fires.
+            metrics = shipped.get("metrics") or {}
             msg = (
                 f"{metrics.get('events_warned', 0)}/{metrics.get('events', 0)} warned, "
                 f"{metrics.get('false_alarms_per_year', 0)} false alarms/year"
@@ -1360,7 +1363,10 @@ async def run_event_study_job() -> None:
         else:
             msg = report.get("reason", "no data")
         _runtime_finish(job_name, "completed", processed=1, total=1, message=msg)
-        _log_event(logging.INFO, "job_complete", job=job_name, events=len(report.get("events", [])))
+        _log_event(
+            logging.INFO, "job_complete", job=job_name,
+            events=len(shipped.get("events") or []),
+        )
     except Exception as exc:
         _runtime_finish(job_name, "error", processed=0, total=1, message=str(exc))
         _log_event(logging.ERROR, "job_error", job=job_name, error_type=type(exc).__name__, message=str(exc))

app/services/alert_service.py

@@ -97,6 +97,14 @@ SIGNAL_BUNDLE_MAX_CHARS = 3900  # Telegram limit is 4096; keep room for HTML par
 # Hysteresis (a deadband around each divider) stops a point sitting on a boundary
 # from flip-flopping; the cooldown caps how often a genuine change can re-alert.
 QUAD_TYPE = "regime_quadrant"
+# The fundamental channel gets its own alerts rather than shifting a score:
+# "the context changed" and "both channels are elevated" are different facts from
+# "the market axes moved", and fusing them into one number would destroy exactly
+# the information an operator uses to decide how much the alert is worth.
+FUND_TYPE = "regime_fundamental"
+CONFLUENCE_TYPE = "regime_confluence"
+# States that count as fundamental risk for the confluence test.
+FUND_ADVERSE = "adverse"
 QUAD_X_DIV = 50.0           # v3 State divider (backend response is authoritative)
 QUAD_Y_DIV = 40.0           # v3 Warning divider; the axes have different ranges
 QUAD_MARGIN = 5.0           # half-width of the hysteresis deadband around each divider
@@ -859,16 +867,111 @@ async def _collect_regime_quadrant(db: AsyncSession) -> list[tuple[str, str]]:
         )
     else:
         metrics = f"State {x:.0f} · Warning {y:.0f}"
+    # The fundamental channel is reported, never added in: this alert is about
+    # the two market axes, and the context is stated beside them so a reader can
+    # judge confluence themselves rather than being handed a fused number.
+    context = data.get("fundamental_context") or {}
+    context_line = (
+        f"fundamentals: {context.get('state', 'unknown')} "
+        f"({context.get('evidence_quality', 'unavailable')})\n"
+    )
     text = (
         f"🧭 <b>AI/Tech risk quadrant change</b>\n"
         f"{QUAD_LABELS.get(prev, prev)} → {QUAD_LABELS.get(new_q, new_q)}\n"
         f"{metrics}\n"
+        f"{context_line}"
         f"coverage: state {state.get('coverage'):.0f}% / warning {warning.get('coverage'):.0f}%\n"
         f"<i>Risk thermometer - not a trade signal.</i>"
     )
     return [(_quadrant_log_key(new_q, x, y, basket_hash), text)]
 
 
+async def _last_logged_key(db: AsyncSession, alert_type: str) -> str | None:
+    """Most recent logged key for a type, our baseline for change detection."""
+    result = await db.execute(
+        select(AlertLog.dedup_key)
+        .where(AlertLog.alert_type == alert_type)
+        .order_by(AlertLog.created_at.desc())
+        .limit(1)
+    )
+    row = result.first()
+    return row[0] if row else None
+
+
+async def _collect_regime_fundamental(db: AsyncSession) -> list[tuple[str, str, str]]:
+    """Fundamental-context changes and market/fundamental confluence.
+
+    Two triggers, deliberately separate from the quadrant alert and from each
+    other, because they answer different questions: *what the evidence says* and
+    *whether both channels agree*. Neither is derived by moving a score.
+
+    ``unknown`` never alerts. An absence of evidence is not a change in the
+    evidence, and alerting on it would train the reader to ignore the channel.
+    Both seed silently on first run, exactly as the quadrant alert does.
+    """
+    from app.services.regime_monitor_service import get_regime_monitor
+
+    data = await get_regime_monitor(db)
+    if not data.get("available"):
+        return []
+    warning = data.get("warning") or {}
+    context = data.get("fundamental_context") or {}
+    state = str(context.get("state") or "unknown")
+    # `usable`, not `available`: the state is deliberately preserved past its
+    # staleness horizon so the card can keep showing the last thing observed, and
+    # an observation whose extraction failed is fresh but knows nothing. Neither
+    # may confirm anything — without this gate a months-old adverse read silently
+    # corroborates every new Warning crossing forever, which is the strongest
+    # claim this channel makes and the one it has least right to make.
+    usable = bool(context.get("usable"))
+    score = warning.get("score")
+
+    quality = data.get("data_quality") or {}
+    if not quality.get("is_fresh") or float(warning.get("coverage") or 0) < 75:
+        return []
+
+    quadrant_cfg = data.get("quadrant_config") or {}
+    y_div = float(quadrant_cfg.get("warning_divider", QUAD_Y_DIV))
+    warning_elevated = score is not None and float(score) >= y_div
+
+    out: list[tuple[str, str, str]] = []
+
+    previous_state = await _last_logged_key(db, FUND_TYPE)
+    if previous_state is None:
+        _log_alert(db, FUND_TYPE, state)  # seed
+    elif previous_state != state and state != "unknown" and usable:
+        effective = context.get("effective_date")
+        out.append((
+            FUND_TYPE,
+            state,
+            f"📋 <b>Fundamental context changed</b>\n"
+            f"{previous_state} → {state}\n"
+            f"evidence: {context.get('evidence_quality', 'unavailable')}"
+            + (f" · effective {effective}" if effective else "")
+            + "\n<i>Context channel — not a score, not a trade signal.</i>",
+        ))
+
+    confluence = "yes" if (warning_elevated and state == FUND_ADVERSE and usable) else "no"
+    previous_confluence = await _last_logged_key(db, CONFLUENCE_TYPE)
+    if previous_confluence is None:
+        _log_alert(db, CONFLUENCE_TYPE, confluence)  # seed
+    elif previous_confluence != confluence and confluence == "yes":
+        out.append((
+            CONFLUENCE_TYPE,
+            confluence,
+            f"⚠️ <b>Confluence: market and fundamental risk both elevated</b>\n"
+            f"Warning {float(score):.0f} (≥ {y_div:.0f}) with fundamentals {state}\n"
+            f"evidence: {context.get('evidence_quality', 'unavailable')}\n"
+            f"<i>Highest attention. Still a thermometer — not a trade signal.</i>",
+        ))
+    elif previous_confluence != confluence:
+        # Falling out of confluence is a state change worth recording as the new
+        # baseline, but not worth a message.
+        _log_alert(db, CONFLUENCE_TYPE, confluence)
+
+    return out
+
+
 # ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 # Dispatch
 # ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
@@ -961,6 +1064,11 @@ async def dispatch_alerts(db: AsyncSession) -> dict:
         # cooldown/hysteresis handled in the collector (like score drops)
         for key, text in await _collect_regime_quadrant(db):
             outgoing.append((QUAD_TYPE, key, text))
+        # Deliberately three separate messages off one toggle, not one fused
+        # signal: the market axes and the fundamental channel are different kinds
+        # of evidence, and an operator needs to know which one moved.
+        for alert_type, key, text in await _collect_regime_fundamental(db):
+            outgoing.append((alert_type, key, text))
 
     if cfg["trade_closed"]:
         for key, text, pnl_usd in await _collect_closed_trades(db):

app/services/event_study_service.py

@@ -1,15 +1,48 @@
-"""Compact chronological validation for the AI/Tech Risk Monitor warning score.
+"""Chronological validation for the AI/Tech Risk Monitor warning score.
 
-The study calls its outcome a 10% correction, uses the first 70% of sessions to
+The outcome is a 10% correction in the leader, never a regime break.  Two rules
-freeze an 80th-percentile warning threshold, and reports alarm episodes only on
+are measured against it, and they answer different questions:
-the final 30%.  It is still labelled exploratory while the fixed breadth basket
+
-is reconstructed before its freeze date.
+* **shipped** -- the quadrant-change rule that actually reaches Telegram
+  (``alert_service._collect_regime_quadrant``).  Its thresholds are fixed
+  constants chosen by scenario arithmetic, so nothing is fitted, so there is no
+  training set to protect and the whole sample is evaluable.  This is the
+  headline.
+* **fitted** -- the original study: an 80th-percentile Warning threshold frozen
+  on the first 70% of sessions and measured on the last 30%.  Kept because it is
+  what the methodology document reports, and because a fitted threshold is a
+  genuinely different question -- but it is measured on the four corrections that
+  happen to fall in the holdout, which is too few to read as a property of the
+  score.
+
+Both are scored by the same ``evaluate_alarms`` harness, alongside ablations
+(does the quadrant machinery earn its place?), external baselines (does the
+score earn its complexity?), and a random-alarm null (is any of this better than
+chance?).  Without those rows a bare "2 of 4" is unreadable in either direction.
+
+The fundamental channel is compared, never fused.  It appears as its own rule
+(transitions into an adverse state), as a confluence gate (a market crossing kept
+only when the state agrees), and as a market-only comparator over the identical
+window -- because with ~10 correction events and almost no fundamental history,
+any weight that combined it with the market axes would be a policy preference
+presented as a measurement.
+
+Those three rows are **coverage-matched**: scored only on the sessions where the
+channel had usable context and on the corrections whose warning horizon fell
+inside it, and marked ``measurable: false`` until enough corrections are covered.
+A fundamental rule scores zero whether it is wrong or merely absent, so scoring
+it over the market rows' full sample would turn a fortnight of observations into
+a 0/10 that reads as a failed test.
+
+Still labelled exploratory while the fixed breadth basket is reconstructed
+before its freeze date.
 """
 
 from __future__ import annotations
 
 import json
 import logging
+import random
 from datetime import date, datetime, timedelta, timezone
 
 from sqlalchemy.ext.asyncio import AsyncSession
@@ -17,11 +50,26 @@ from sqlalchemy.ext.asyncio import AsyncSession
 from app.services import breadth_service, settings_store
 from app.services import regime_monitor_service as rms
 from app.services.admin_service import update_setting
+from app.services.alert_service import (
+    QUAD_COOLDOWN_DAYS,
+    QUAD_MARGIN,
+    QUAD_X_DIV,
+    QUAD_Y_DIV,
+    _classify_quadrant,
+)
 
 logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
 KEY_REPORT = "regime_event_study"
 
+# Report shape, independent of METHODOLOGY. A cached report from an older shape
+# parses fine and reports the current methodology, so without this check the
+# panel would render a report missing half its blocks. Bumping discards the cache
+# the way a methodology change does -- and it is the *only* thing that does so
+# here, because the fundamental-channel rework left METHODOLOGY on v4 (the scores
+# did not change), so the methodology check cannot catch a stale report.
+STUDY_SCHEMA = 3
+
 EVENT_THRESHOLD_PCT = 10.0
 EVENT_COOLDOWN_DAYS = 40
 DRAWDOWN_LOOKBACK = 252
@@ -33,6 +81,21 @@ TRAIN_FRACTION = 0.70
 MIN_EVENTS_FOR_CONFIDENCE = 8
 SENSOR_MISMATCH_TOLERANCE = 0.10
 
+# _collect_regime_quadrant confirms against get_regime_history(db, days=14), so a
+# prior session older than that window is not available to confirm with.
+QUAD_HISTORY_DAYS = 14
+# Quadrants with Warning above its divider: "1" early warning, "2" active stress.
+WARNING_QUADRANTS = ("1", "2")
+STRESS_QUADRANT = ("2",)
+
+# Draws for the random-alarm null.  Seeded, because a cached report that moves
+# on re-run for RNG reasons is worse than no report.
+NULL_DRAWS = 2000
+NULL_SEED = 20260812
+
+BASELINE_SMA_WINDOW = 50
+BASELINE_VIX_LEVEL = 20.0
+
 
 def _median(values: list[float]) -> float | None:
     if not values:
@@ -148,41 +211,355 @@ def evaluate_alarms(
     }
 
 
-def _warning_series(
+def _score_rule(
+    alarm_indices: list[int],
+    event_indices: list[int],
+    dates: list[date],
+    horizon: int,
+    sessions: int,
+) -> dict:
+    """``evaluate_alarms`` plus the annualised false-alarm rate for one rule.
+
+    The rate is ``None`` when the rule had no eligible sessions. Dividing by a
+    tiny floor instead produced 5e9 alarms/year for a coverage-matched rule with
+    an empty window -- a number that means "undefined" while looking like a
+    measurement, which is the failure mode this whole panel is built to avoid.
+    """
+    metrics = evaluate_alarms(alarm_indices, event_indices, dates, horizon)
+    metrics["false_alarms_per_year"] = (
+        round(metrics["false_alarms"] / (sessions / 252.0), 2) if sessions > 0 else None
+    )
+    return metrics
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# The shipped rule
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+def _axis_rows(
     prices: dict[str, rms.Series],
-    breadth_divergence: dict[date, float],
+    vix_series: rms.Series | None,
+    oas_series: rms.Series | None,
+    breadth_series: rms.Series | None,
+    divergence_series: rms.Series | None,
     dates: list[date],
     config: dict,
-    oas_series: rms.Series | None = None,
+    observations: list[dict] | None = None,
-) -> tuple[dict[date, float], dict[date, int]]:
+) -> dict[date, dict]:
-    """Warning score per session plus how many sensors backed it.
+    """State and Warning per session, from the function that writes snapshots.
 
-    v2 re-derived this by hand from ``WARNING_WEIGHTS`` and so would have kept
+    Calling ``_compute_index`` rather than re-deriving the two axes is the same
-    measuring the old construct after a scoring change.  Since v3 dropped
+    anti-drift argument that produced ``warning_sensor_scores``: the v2 study
-    fundamentals from the score, this is now exactly the live Warning score
+    re-derived Warning by hand and would have kept measuring the old construct
-    rather than a technical-only approximation of it.
+    through a scoring change.  State has no such shared helper, so the whole
+    snapshot builder is the shared definition.
 
-    The sensor count matters because the score renormalises over whatever is
+    ``observations`` is the point-in-time fundamental series. It does not enter
-    available: a session backed by two sensors is not drawn from the same
+    either score -- the fundamental channel is categorical and read by confluence
-    distribution as one backed by three, and the frozen threshold assumes it is.
+    -- but the per-session ``fundamental_state`` it produces is what the
+    confluence rule below is measured on, so it has to be the same series
+    production reports from.  Every variant in this module reads its Warning from
+    these rows, so there is no second derivation to fall out of step.
     """
-    tickers = config["tickers"]
+    rows: dict[date, dict] = {}
-    smh_full = prices.get(tickers["leaders"][0], [])
-    spy_full = prices.get(tickers["market"], [])
-    out: dict[date, float] = {}
-    backing: dict[date, int] = {}
     for session in dates:
-        sensors = rms.warning_sensor_scores(
+        snapshot = rms._compute_index(
-            breadth_divergence.get(session),
+            prices,
-            rms._closes_asof(smh_full, session),
+            vix_series,
-            rms._closes_asof(spy_full, session),
+            oas_series,
-            rms._window_asof(oas_series, session, rms.HY_OAS_WINDOW_DAYS),
+            {},
+            config,
+            session,
+            breadth_series=breadth_series,
+            divergence_series=divergence_series,
+            observations=observations or [],
         )
-        score = rms.score_warning_sensors(sensors)
+        state = snapshot["state"]
-        if score is not None:
+        warning = snapshot["warning"]
-            out[session] = round(score, 2)
+        rows[session] = {
-            backing[session] = sum(1 for value in sensors.values() if value is not None)
+            "state": state.get("score"),
-    return out, backing
+            "warning": warning.get("score"),
+            "fundamental_state": (snapshot.get("fundamental_context") or {}).get("state"),
+            # `usable`, not `available`: a stale observation keeps its state for
+            # display but stops counting as evidence, and an observation whose
+            # extraction failed on everything is fresh but knows nothing. Either
+            # one counted here would inflate the covered window with sessions the
+            # channel could not have contributed to.
+            "fundamental_usable": bool(
+                (snapshot.get("fundamental_context") or {}).get("usable")
+            ),
+            "state_coverage": state.get("coverage") or 0.0,
+            "warning_coverage": warning.get("coverage") or 0.0,
+            # The score renormalises over available sensors, so a session backed
+            # by two is not drawn from the same distribution as one backed by
+            # three, and a frozen threshold assumes it is.
+            "warning_sensors": len(warning.get("available_pillars") or []),
+            "inputs_fresh": bool((snapshot.get("data_quality") or {}).get("inputs_fresh")),
+        }
+    return rows
+
+
+def _publishable(row: dict | None) -> bool:
+    """What ``get_regime_history`` leaves for the alert to confirm against.
+
+    Deliberately not freshness-gated: ``_collect_regime_quadrant`` checks
+    ``is_fresh`` on today's live reading only, while the prior session comes from
+    stored history where the only filter is a published band on both axes.
+    """
+    return (
+        row is not None
+        and row["state"] is not None
+        and row["warning"] is not None
+        and row["state_coverage"] >= rms.MIN_COVERAGE
+        and row["warning_coverage"] >= rms.MIN_COVERAGE
+    )
+
+
+def _prior_publishable(
+    rows: dict[date, dict], dates: list[date], index: int, history_days: int
+) -> dict | None:
+    """``valid[-2]``: the previous published session inside the 14-day window.
+
+    The monitor writes today's snapshot before the alert step runs
+    (``job_catalog._DAILY_PIPELINE_STEPS``), so ``valid[-1]`` is today and this
+    is genuinely the prior session rather than t-2.
+    """
+    cutoff = dates[index] - timedelta(days=history_days)
+    for position in range(index - 1, -1, -1):
+        if dates[position] < cutoff:
+            return None
+        candidate = rows.get(dates[position])
+        if _publishable(candidate):
+            return candidate
+    return None
+
+
+def replay_quadrant_changes(
+    rows: dict[date, dict],
+    dates: list[date],
+    state_divider: float = QUAD_X_DIV,
+    warning_divider: float = QUAD_Y_DIV,
+    margin: float = QUAD_MARGIN,
+    cooldown_days: int = QUAD_COOLDOWN_DAYS,
+    history_days: int = QUAD_HISTORY_DAYS,
+) -> list[dict]:
+    """Every quadrant change the shipped alert would have sent, in order.
+
+    A faithful replay of ``_collect_regime_quadrant``, including three details a
+    state machine written from first principles gets wrong:
+
+    * the prior session is classified against the *current baseline*, not against
+      its own predecessor, so confirmation asks "did yesterday already look like
+      this change" rather than "did yesterday change too";
+    * the baseline advances only when an alert actually fires, so a change that
+      fails confirmation or cooldown is re-evaluated against the old quadrant on
+      the next session rather than being forgotten;
+    * one cooldown is shared by every quadrant change, so a 3->4 alert can
+      swallow a 4->2 alert three days later.
+
+    Returns the fires themselves rather than alarm indices, because which
+    transitions count as a *warning* is the caller's question: entering
+    Warning-high territory and entering both-high territory are different rules
+    over the same replay.
+    """
+    fires: list[dict] = []
+    baseline: str | None = None
+    baseline_date: date | None = None
+
+    for index, session in enumerate(dates):
+        row = rows.get(session)
+        if not _publishable(row) or not row["inputs_fresh"]:
+            continue
+        x, y = float(row["state"]), float(row["warning"])
+
+        if baseline is None:  # seeds silently, exactly as a fresh install does
+            baseline = _classify_quadrant(x, y, None, margin, state_divider, warning_divider)
+            baseline_date = session
+            continue
+
+        new_quadrant = _classify_quadrant(x, y, baseline, margin, state_divider, warning_divider)
+        if new_quadrant == baseline:
+            continue
+
+        prior = _prior_publishable(rows, dates, index, history_days)
+        if prior is None:
+            continue
+        prior_quadrant = _classify_quadrant(
+            float(prior["state"]), float(prior["warning"]),
+            baseline, margin, state_divider, warning_divider,
+        )
+        if prior_quadrant != new_quadrant:
+            continue
+
+        if baseline_date is not None and (session - baseline_date).days < cooldown_days:
+            continue
+
+        fires.append({
+            "index": index,
+            "date": session.isoformat(),
+            "from": baseline,
+            "to": new_quadrant,
+            "state": x,
+            "warning": y,
+        })
+        baseline, baseline_date = new_quadrant, session
+
+    return fires
+
+
+def entry_alarms(fires: list[dict], entry: tuple[str, ...]) -> list[int]:
+    """Fires that *enter* the given quadrant set from outside it."""
+    return [f["index"] for f in fires if f["to"] in entry and f["from"] not in entry]
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Ablations, baselines, null
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+def _usable_adverse(rows: dict[date, dict], session: date) -> bool:
+    """Adverse *and* still within its staleness horizon.
+
+    Both callers need this pair, and neither may use the state alone: the state
+    survives going stale so the card can show it, which would otherwise let a
+    months-old read confirm crossings indefinitely.
+    """
+    row = rows.get(session) or {}
+    return row.get("fundamental_state") == "adverse" and bool(row.get("fundamental_usable"))
+
+
+def adverse_episodes(
+    rows: dict[date, dict], dates: list[date], start_index: int
+) -> list[int]:
+    """Sessions where the fundamental state *becomes* usably adverse.
+
+    The market rules alarm on a rising-edge crossing; a categorical state has no
+    crossing, so its analogue is the transition into ``adverse``. That keeps the
+    row comparable with every other row in the table rather than counting every
+    day the state happens to sit there.
+    """
+    alarms: list[int] = []
+    was_adverse = start_index > 0 and _usable_adverse(rows, dates[start_index - 1])
+    for index in range(start_index, len(dates)):
+        if dates[index] not in rows:
+            continue
+        adverse = _usable_adverse(rows, dates[index])
+        if adverse and not was_adverse:
+            alarms.append(index)
+        was_adverse = adverse
+    return alarms
+
+
+def confluence_episodes(
+    warning_alarms: list[int], rows: dict[date, dict], dates: list[date]
+) -> list[int]:
+    """Warning crossings that happen while the fundamental state is usably adverse.
+
+    Deliberately gated on the market crossing rather than on either channel
+    moving: it preserves the rising-edge semantics every other row uses, so the
+    column measures "does requiring fundamental agreement help?" instead of a
+    differently-shaped rule that cannot be compared with the others.
+    """
+    return [index for index in warning_alarms if _usable_adverse(rows, dates[index])]
+
+
+def covered_events(
+    event_indices: list[int],
+    rows: dict[date, dict],
+    dates: list[date],
+    horizon: int,
+) -> list[int]:
+    """Corrections a fundamental rule actually had a chance to warn about.
+
+    An alarm counts only if it fires in ``[event - horizon, event - 1]``, so a
+    correction is *coverable* only if the channel had usable context somewhere in
+    that window. Scoring these rules against every correction instead would make
+    one day of observation render as 0/10 -- an untested rule reported as a
+    failed one, which is the exact mistake the ``measurable`` flag exists to
+    prevent for the empty-table case.
+    """
+    covered: list[int] = []
+    for event_index in event_indices:
+        window = range(max(0, event_index - horizon), event_index)
+        if any(
+            bool((rows.get(dates[index]) or {}).get("fundamental_usable"))
+            for index in window
+        ):
+            covered.append(event_index)
+    return covered
+
+
+def eligible_sessions(
+    rows: dict[date, dict], dates: list[date], start_index: int
+) -> int:
+    """Sessions a fundamental rule could have fired on, for the FA/year rate.
+
+    Annualising over the whole window instead would divide a rule's false alarms
+    by years in which it was structurally incapable of firing, reporting a
+    flattering rate that means nothing.
+    """
+    return sum(
+        1
+        for session in dates[start_index:]
+        if bool((rows.get(session) or {}).get("fundamental_usable"))
+    )
+
+
+def below_average_series(
+    series: rms.Series, window: int = BASELINE_SMA_WINDOW
+) -> dict[date, float]:
+    """100 while the close sits under its ``window``-session average, else 0."""
+    out: dict[date, float] = {}
+    closes = [value for _, value in series]
+    for index, (session, close) in enumerate(series):
+        if index + 1 < window:
+            continue
+        average = sum(closes[index + 1 - window: index + 1]) / window
+        out[session] = 100.0 if close < average else 0.0
+    return out
+
+
+def _null_model(
+    alarm_count: int,
+    event_indices: list[int],
+    dates: list[date],
+    horizon: int,
+    start_index: int,
+    observed_warned: int,
+    draws: int = NULL_DRAWS,
+    seed: int = NULL_SEED,
+) -> dict | None:
+    """Recall from alarms scattered at random over the same evaluable sessions.
+
+    Drawn only from sessions a real rule could have fired on: over the whole
+    sample the null would be diluted by warm-up sessions and would understate
+    what chance achieves.  That matters here -- with ~11 events and a 20-session
+    horizon, a sixth of the sample already sits inside a hit window.
+
+    Corrections cluster, and uniform placement does not, so this is the floor
+    rather than the bar: an alarm process that clusters would beat it for
+    reasons that have nothing to do with foresight.
+    """
+    population = range(start_index, len(dates))
+    if alarm_count <= 0 or not event_indices or alarm_count > len(population):
+        return None
+    rng = random.Random(seed)
+    recalls: list[int] = []
+    for _ in range(draws):
+        picks = sorted(rng.sample(population, alarm_count))
+        recalls.append(evaluate_alarms(picks, event_indices, dates, horizon)["events_warned"])
+    mean = sum(recalls) / len(recalls)
+    variance = sum((value - mean) ** 2 for value in recalls) / len(recalls)
+    return {
+        "draws": draws,
+        "alarms_per_draw": alarm_count,
+        "events": len(event_indices),
+        "mean_warned": round(mean, 2),
+        "sd_warned": round(variance ** 0.5, 2),
+        "observed_warned": observed_warned,
+        "p_at_least_observed": round(
+            sum(1 for value in recalls if value >= observed_warned) / len(recalls), 3
+        ),
+    }
 
 
 def _reliability(
@@ -192,9 +569,9 @@ def _reliability(
     events_detected: int,
     events_in_holdout: int,
 ) -> dict:
-    """How far the headline metrics can actually be trusted.
+    """How far the *fitted* variant's headline metrics can be trusted.
 
-    Two things repeatedly invite over-reading this report:
+    Two things repeatedly invite over-reading it:
 
     * The holdout carries only the corrections that fall in the last 30% of the
       sample. A "2/4" is one event away from "3/4", and in practice the events
@@ -203,6 +580,9 @@ def _reliability(
     * The score renormalises over available sensors, so a training window that
       predates a sensor's history freezes a threshold on a different construct
       than the holdout is measured against.
+
+    Neither applies to the shipped rule, whose thresholds are fixed constants --
+    but the second one does not vanish, it relocates: see ``_era_split``.
     """
     expected = len(rms.WARNING_WEIGHTS)
     train = [backing[d] for d in dates[:split] if d in backing]
@@ -221,6 +601,126 @@ def _reliability(
     }
 
 
+def _era_split(
+    alarms: list[int],
+    event_indices: list[int],
+    dates: list[date],
+    horizon: int,
+    start_index: int,
+    credit_from: date | None,
+) -> dict | None:
+    """Shipped-rule metrics either side of the credit sensor's first session.
+
+    Dropping the fitted threshold makes the whole sample evaluable, which is the
+    point -- but most of the extra events sit before 2023-08, where W3 does not
+    exist and Warning renormalises to ``(W1*45 + W2*30)/75``.  The fixed 40
+    divider is then applied to a different construct than it was reasoned about,
+    so the coverage caveat does not disappear with the split; it relocates from
+    the threshold to the score.  Reporting the two eras separately is what keeps
+    the fuller sample from being a differently misleading headline.
+
+    The pre-credit era is close to a "Warning without W3" ablation on real
+    sessions -- and a clean one, because the fundamental channel is not a term in
+    Warning at all, so the two eras differ by W3 and nothing else. That stays
+    true however much fundamental history accumulates.
+
+    Alarms and events are assigned to eras by index, so an alarm days before the
+    boundary that matched an event days after it lands in the earlier era. With
+    the eras years long and the events sparse, that costs nothing.
+    """
+    if credit_from is None:
+        return None
+    boundary = next(
+        (index for index, session in enumerate(dates) if session >= credit_from), None
+    )
+    if boundary is None or boundary <= start_index or boundary >= len(dates):
+        return None
+
+    def slice_metrics(low: int, high: int) -> dict:
+        sessions = max(0, high - low)
+        metrics = _score_rule(
+            [a for a in alarms if low <= a < high],
+            [e for e in event_indices if low <= e < high],
+            dates, horizon, sessions,
+        )
+        metrics.pop("per_event", None)
+        metrics["sessions"] = sessions
+        return metrics
+
+    return {
+        "credit_from": credit_from.isoformat(),
+        "pre_credit": {
+            "label": "W1+W2 only",
+            "start": dates[start_index].isoformat(),
+            "end": dates[boundary - 1].isoformat(),
+            **slice_metrics(start_index, boundary),
+        },
+        "full_coverage": {
+            "label": "all three sensors",
+            "start": dates[boundary].isoformat(),
+            "end": dates[-1].isoformat(),
+            **slice_metrics(boundary, len(dates)),
+        },
+    }
+
+
+def _warning_from_rows(
+    rows: dict[date, dict], dates: list[date]
+) -> tuple[dict[date, float], dict[date, int]]:
+    """Published Warning per session plus how many sensors backed it.
+
+    Read off ``_axis_rows`` rather than recomputed. v2 re-derived Warning by hand
+    from ``WARNING_WEIGHTS`` and would have kept measuring the old construct
+    after a scoring change; a second derivation here would have done the same to
+    any later change to how Warning is assembled -- silently, in the fitted
+    variant and the ``warning_bare`` ablation, while the shipped replay moved on
+    without it.
+    """
+    out: dict[date, float] = {}
+    backing: dict[date, int] = {}
+    for session in dates:
+        row = rows.get(session)
+        if row is None or row["warning"] is None:
+            continue
+        out[session] = float(row["warning"])
+        backing[session] = int(row["warning_sensors"])
+    return out, backing
+
+
+def _rule_row(
+    rule_id: str,
+    label: str,
+    kind: str,
+    note: str,
+    alarms: list[int],
+    event_indices: list[int],
+    dates: list[date],
+    horizon: int,
+    sessions: int,
+    measurable: bool = True,
+) -> dict:
+    """One comparison row.
+
+    ``measurable=False`` marks a rule whose *input* is too thin to have been
+    tested, not one that failed. A fundamental rule scores 0/N whether it is
+    wrong or merely absent, and a 0/N sitting in this table would read as
+    tested-and-failed -- the same false precision the whole restructure exists to
+    remove. It stays false until the channel has covered
+    ``MIN_EVENTS_FOR_CONFIDENCE`` corrections, because a 1/1 or 0/2 over a
+    two-week exposure is not a result either.
+    """
+    metrics = _score_rule(alarms, event_indices, dates, horizon, sessions)
+    metrics.pop("per_event", None)
+    return {
+        "id": rule_id,
+        "label": label,
+        "kind": kind,
+        "note": note,
+        "measurable": measurable,
+        **metrics,
+    }
+
+
 async def run_event_study(
     db: AsyncSession,
     threshold_pct: float = EVENT_THRESHOLD_PCT,
@@ -242,55 +742,202 @@ async def run_event_study(
     )
     divergence = breadth_service.compute_divergence_series(breadth, benchmark)
     oas_series = await rms._fetch_fred_series("BAMLH0A0HYM2", start, end)
-    warning, backing = _warning_series(prices, divergence, dates, config, oas_series)
+    # State needs volatility, which the Warning-only study never fetched.
+    vix_series = await rms._fetch_fred_series("VIXCLS", start, end)
+    # The point-in-time fundamental series. It is not in either score; it drives
+    # the categorical channel the confluence rule below is measured on.
+    observations = await rms.get_fundamental_observations(db)
     # The credit sensor cannot reach back as far as the price history does (the
     # upstream series is capped at ~3 years), so the earlier part of the sample
     # scores on W1+W2 alone via renormalisation. Report where W3 starts rather
     # than letting the threshold quietly straddle two sensor sets.
-    credit_from = oas_series[0][0].isoformat() if oas_series else None
+    credit_from = oas_series[0][0] if oas_series else None
 
+    all_events = detect_events(closes, dates, threshold_pct)
+    all_event_indices = [event["index"] for event in all_events]
+
+    # --- one pass; every rule below reads its Warning from these rows ----
+    rows = _axis_rows(
+        prices,
+        vix_series,
+        oas_series,
+        rms._mapping_series(breadth),
+        rms._mapping_series(divergence),
+        dates,
+        config,
+        observations,
+    )
+    warning, backing = _warning_from_rows(rows, dates)
+    fires = replay_quadrant_changes(rows, dates)
+    # Nothing can alarm before the baseline seeds, so every rule is measured from
+    # the same session and the comparison stays like-for-like.
+    seeded = next(
+        (
+            index
+            for index, session in enumerate(dates)
+            if _publishable(rows.get(session)) and rows[session]["inputs_fresh"]
+        ),
+        None,
+    )
+    if seeded is None:
+        return {"available": False, "reason": "no session with publishable coverage"}
+    evaluable_start = seeded + 1
+    evaluable_sessions = max(1, len(dates) - evaluable_start)
+    evaluable_events = [index for index in all_event_indices if index >= evaluable_start]
+
+    warning_alarms = entry_alarms(fires, WARNING_QUADRANTS)
+    shipped_metrics = _score_rule(
+        warning_alarms, evaluable_events, dates, horizon, evaluable_sessions
+    )
+    shipped_events = shipped_metrics.pop("per_event")
+
+    # --- the fitted variant, kept for continuity -------------------------
     split = max(1, min(len(dates) - 1, int(len(dates) * TRAIN_FRACTION)))
     train_values = [warning[d] for d in dates[:split] if d in warning]
     warn_threshold = _percentile(train_values, WARN_PERCENTILE)
     if warn_threshold is None:
         return {"available": False, "reason": "insufficient warning history"}
-
+    holdout_events = [index for index in all_event_indices if index >= split]
-    all_events = detect_events(closes, dates, threshold_pct)
+    fitted_alarms = alarm_episodes(warning, dates, warn_threshold, start_index=split)
-    holdout_events = [event["index"] for event in all_events if event["index"] >= split]
-    alarms = alarm_episodes(warning, dates, warn_threshold, start_index=split)
-    metrics = evaluate_alarms(alarms, holdout_events, dates, horizon)
     holdout_sessions = max(1, len(dates) - split)
-    metrics["false_alarms_per_year"] = round(
+    fitted_metrics = _score_rule(
-        metrics["false_alarms"] / (holdout_sessions / 252.0), 2
+        fitted_alarms, holdout_events, dates, horizon, holdout_sessions
     )
-
+    fitted_events = fitted_metrics.pop("per_event")
     reliability = _reliability(dates, split, backing, len(all_events), len(holdout_events))
 
+    # --- ablations and baselines, all on fixed thresholds ----------------
+    # Fitted thresholds are deliberately excluded here: a threshold fitted on the
+    # full sample would have lookahead the shipped rule does not, and one fitted
+    # on a training split could only be scored on the four holdout events. Fixed
+    # constants keep every row on the same events over the same sessions.
+    state_series = {
+        session: row["state"] for session, row in rows.items() if row["state"] is not None
+    }
+    vix_indicator = {
+        session: value
+        for session in dates
+        if (value := rms._value_asof(vix_series, session)) is not None
+    }
+    # The fundamental channel is categorical and never enters a score, so it is
+    # compared as its own rule and as a confluence gate rather than tuned as a
+    # weight. With an empty observation series both are unmeasurable, and say so.
+    fundamental_alarms = adverse_episodes(rows, dates, evaluable_start)
+    confluence_alarms = confluence_episodes(warning_alarms, rows, dates)
+    # Coverage-matched denominators. These rules only existed on the sessions the
+    # channel had usable context, so scoring them over the whole window would
+    # report an exposure they never had -- and one day of coverage would render
+    # as 0/10.
+    fundamental_events = covered_events(evaluable_events, rows, dates, horizon)
+    fundamental_sessions = eligible_sessions(rows, dates, evaluable_start)
+    fundamental_measurable = len(fundamental_events) >= MIN_EVENTS_FOR_CONFIDENCE
+    comparison = [
+        _rule_row(
+            "fundamental_adverse", "Fundamental context turns adverse", "fundamental",
+            "The third channel on its own: transitions into an adverse capex / "
+            "earnings-reaction state, with no market input at all.",
+            fundamental_alarms, fundamental_events, dates, horizon, fundamental_sessions,
+            measurable=fundamental_measurable,
+        ),
+        _rule_row(
+            "confluence", "Confluence: Warning crossing while adverse", "fundamental",
+            "The shipped market crossing, kept only when the fundamental channel "
+            "agrees. Answers whether requiring agreement buys precision, at what "
+            "cost in recall.",
+            confluence_alarms, fundamental_events, dates, horizon, fundamental_sessions,
+            measurable=fundamental_measurable,
+        ),
+        _rule_row(
+            "market_over_covered", "Quadrant alert, covered window only", "fundamental",
+            "The shipped market rule scored on exactly the events, sessions and "
+            "alarms the two rows above were scored on. Without it, any difference "
+            "between them and the headline could be the window rather than the "
+            "channel.",
+            # Alarms are restricted to the covered window too: counting crossings
+            # that fired when the channel had no context would compare the market
+            # rule's full exposure against the channel's partial one.
+            [
+                index
+                for index in warning_alarms
+                if index >= evaluable_start
+                and bool((rows.get(dates[index]) or {}).get("fundamental_usable"))
+            ],
+            fundamental_events, dates, horizon, fundamental_sessions,
+            measurable=fundamental_measurable,
+        ),
+        _rule_row(
+            "quadrant_stress_entry", "Quadrant alert, both axes high", "ablation",
+            "The same replay, recording only entries into the both-high quadrant. "
+            "State is coincident by construction, so requiring it should convert "
+            "leads into confirmations.",
+            entry_alarms(fires, STRESS_QUADRANT),
+            evaluable_events, dates, horizon, evaluable_sessions,
+        ),
+        _rule_row(
+            "warning_bare", f"Warning >= {QUAD_Y_DIV:.0f} (bare crossing)", "ablation",
+            "The shipped divider with none of the quadrant machinery: no State "
+            "condition, no hysteresis, no confirmation, no cooldown.",
+            alarm_episodes(warning, dates, QUAD_Y_DIV, start_index=evaluable_start),
+            evaluable_events, dates, horizon, evaluable_sessions,
+        ),
+        _rule_row(
+            "state_bare", f"State >= {QUAD_X_DIV:.0f} (bare crossing)", "ablation",
+            "The coincident axis alone. State measures stress that has already "
+            "arrived, so a competitive lead here would be surprising.",
+            alarm_episodes(state_series, dates, QUAD_X_DIV, start_index=evaluable_start),
+            evaluable_events, dates, horizon, evaluable_sessions,
+        ),
+        _rule_row(
+            "smh_below_50dma", f"{leader} below its {BASELINE_SMA_WINDOW}-DMA", "baseline",
+            "The crudest possible trend rule, and free.",
+            alarm_episodes(
+                below_average_series(benchmark, BASELINE_SMA_WINDOW), dates,
+                50.0, start_index=evaluable_start,
+            ),
+            evaluable_events, dates, horizon, evaluable_sessions,
+        ),
+        _rule_row(
+            "vix_level", f"VIX >= {BASELINE_VIX_LEVEL:.0f}", "baseline",
+            "The market's own risk gauge, unweighted and unmodelled.",
+            alarm_episodes(
+                vix_indicator, dates, BASELINE_VIX_LEVEL, start_index=evaluable_start
+            ),
+            evaluable_events, dates, horizon, evaluable_sessions,
+        ),
+    ]
+
+    null_model = _null_model(
+        len(warning_alarms), evaluable_events, dates, horizon,
+        evaluable_start, shipped_metrics["events_warned"],
+        # Passed rather than defaulted: a default argument binds the constant at
+        # import, so overriding it (in tests) would silently do nothing.
+        draws=NULL_DRAWS, seed=NULL_SEED,
+    )
+    eras = _era_split(
+        warning_alarms, evaluable_events, dates, horizon, evaluable_start, credit_from
+    )
     basket_asof = date.fromisoformat(config["basket_asof"])
-    retrospective = dates[split] < basket_asof
+    retrospective = dates[evaluable_start] < basket_asof
     evaluation = "exploratory" if retrospective else "holdout"
     lead_text = (
-        f"median lead {metrics['median_lead_days']:.0f} sessions"
+        f"median lead {shipped_metrics['median_lead_days']:.0f} sessions"
-        if metrics["median_lead_days"] is not None
+        if shipped_metrics["median_lead_days"] is not None
         else "no successful warning lead"
     )
     summary = (
-        f"{evaluation.capitalize()} chronological test: warning episodes preceded "
+        f"{evaluation.capitalize()} replay of the shipped quadrant alert over "
-        f"{metrics['events_warned']}/{metrics['events']} 10% corrections; "
+        f"{evaluable_sessions} sessions: it entered Warning-high territory ahead of "
-        f"{metrics['events_missed']} missed, {metrics['false_alarms_per_year']:.1f} "
+        f"{shipped_metrics['events_warned']} of {shipped_metrics['events']} 10% "
-        f"false alarms/year, {lead_text}. "
+        f"corrections, with {shipped_metrics['false_alarms_per_year']:.1f} false "
-        f"{metrics['events']} of {reliability['events_detected']} detected corrections "
+        f"alarms/year and {lead_text}. Its dividers are fixed constants rather than "
-        f"fall in the test period"
+        f"fitted, so there is no training split and every detected correction is "
-        + (
+        f"evaluable — compare it against the ablations and baselines below before "
-            "; too few to read recall as a property of the score."
+        f"reading the ratio as good or bad."
-            if reliability["underpowered"]
-            else "."
     )
-    )
-    per_event = metrics.pop("per_event")
 
     report = {
         "available": True,
+        "schema": STUDY_SCHEMA,
         "methodology": rms.METHODOLOGY,
         "generated_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
         "evaluation": evaluation,
@@ -301,24 +948,69 @@ async def run_event_study(
             "event_threshold_pct": threshold_pct,
             "event_cooldown_days": EVENT_COOLDOWN_DAYS,
             "horizon_days": horizon,
-            "train_fraction": TRAIN_FRACTION,
+            "credit_sensor_from": credit_from.isoformat() if credit_from else None,
-            "warn_percentile": WARN_PERCENTILE,
-            "warn_threshold": round(warn_threshold, 1),
-            "credit_sensor_from": credit_from,
             "basket_hash": rms._basket_hash(config["breadth_basket"]),
             "basket_asof": config["basket_asof"],
         },
+        # The channel's actual exposure, which is what its rows are scored on.
+        # The series starts empty -- the observation lived in a single
+        # overwritten settings slot until 2026-08-12 -- and it accumulates one
+        # observation at a time, so for a long while these rows are unmeasurable
+        # rather than unsuccessful. Stating the exposure is what stops the table
+        # inventing a failed result out of a thin one.
+        "fundamental_coverage": {
+            "observations": len(observations),
+            "sessions_eligible": fundamental_sessions,
+            "evaluable_sessions": evaluable_sessions,
+            "events_covered": len(fundamental_events),
+            "events_evaluable": len(evaluable_events),
+            "minimum_events": MIN_EVENTS_FOR_CONFIDENCE,
+            "measurable": fundamental_measurable,
+        },
         "sample": {
             "start": dates[0].isoformat(),
             "end": dates[-1].isoformat(),
+            "sessions": len(dates),
+            # Not "test_start": the shipped rule fits nothing, so this is where
+            # the baseline seeds and every rule becomes measurable, not where a
+            # holdout begins. The fitted variant's split lives under "fitted".
+            "evaluable_from": dates[evaluable_start].isoformat(),
+            "evaluable_sessions": evaluable_sessions,
+            "events_detected": len(all_events),
+            "events_evaluable": len(evaluable_events),
+        },
+        "shipped": {
+            "rule": {
+                "state_divider": QUAD_X_DIV,
+                "warning_divider": QUAD_Y_DIV,
+                "margin": QUAD_MARGIN,
+                "confirm_sessions": 2,
+                "cooldown_days": QUAD_COOLDOWN_DAYS,
+                "entry": "Warning-high quadrant (early warning or active stress)",
+            },
+            "metrics": shipped_metrics,
+            "events": shipped_events,
+            "quadrant_changes": len(fires),
+            "fires": fires,
+            "by_era": eras,
+        },
+        "comparison": comparison,
+        "null_model": null_model,
+        "fitted": {
+            "params": {
+                "train_fraction": TRAIN_FRACTION,
+                "warn_percentile": WARN_PERCENTILE,
+                "warn_threshold": round(warn_threshold, 1),
+            },
+            "sample": {
                 "train_end": dates[split - 1].isoformat(),
                 "test_start": dates[split].isoformat(),
-            "sessions": len(dates),
                 "holdout_sessions": holdout_sessions,
             },
-        "metrics": metrics,
+            "metrics": fitted_metrics,
+            "events": fitted_events,
+        },
         "reliability": reliability,
-        "events": per_event,
         "recent_breadth": [
             {"date": d.isoformat(), "breadth": breadth[d], "warning": warning.get(d)}
             for d in dates[-90:]
@@ -328,10 +1020,13 @@ async def run_event_study(
     logger.info(json.dumps({
         "event": "regime_event_study_complete",
         "evaluation": evaluation,
-        "events": metrics["events"],
+        "shipped_events": shipped_metrics["events"],
-        "events_detected": reliability["events_detected"],
+        "shipped_warned": shipped_metrics["events_warned"],
-        "warned": metrics["events_warned"],
+        "shipped_false_alarms_per_year": shipped_metrics["false_alarms_per_year"],
-        "false_alarms_per_year": metrics["false_alarms_per_year"],
+        "quadrant_changes": len(fires),
+        "fitted_events": fitted_metrics["events"],
+        "fitted_warned": fitted_metrics["events_warned"],
+        "null_p_at_least_observed": (null_model or {}).get("p_at_least_observed"),
         "underpowered": reliability["underpowered"],
         "sensor_coverage_mismatch": reliability["sensor_coverage_mismatch"],
     }))
@@ -352,4 +1047,8 @@ async def get_event_study_report(db: AsyncSession) -> dict | None:
         report = json.loads(setting.value)
     except (TypeError, ValueError):
         return None
-    return report if report.get("methodology") == rms.METHODOLOGY else None
+    if report.get("methodology") != rms.METHODOLOGY:
+        return None
+    # A pre-replay report parses fine and carries the current methodology, so the
+    # shape has to be checked separately or the panel renders a headline-less v4.
+    return report if report.get("schema") == STUDY_SCHEMA else None

app/services/regime_monitor_service.py

@@ -7,11 +7,17 @@ two deliberately separate outputs:
 * Warning: deterioration/divergence that may precede State (breadth divergence,
   relative strength, credit impulse).
 
-Both scores are quantitative and daily.  The sourced hyperscaler capex and
+* Fundamental context: a categorical channel (supportive / neutral / adverse /
-earnings-reaction observations are a qualitative *overlay* since v3 rather than
+  unknown) with an evidence-quality grade, derived by fixed rules from the
-weighted sensors: at a combined 20 points they could not reach the event
+  sourced hyperscaler capex and earnings-reaction observations.
-study's alarm threshold even when both pegged, so refreshing them appeared to
+
-do nothing.  They are reported next to the scores instead of inside them.
+Both scores are quantitative and daily.  The fundamental channel is deliberately
+**not** a term in either: the three are read together by confluence, because
+adding a slow categorical judgement to a fast continuous score manufactures
+precision by summing unlike things, and any fusion weight would be a policy
+preference presented as a measurement until there is enough point-in-time
+history to fit one.  A missing observation therefore stays ``unknown`` instead of
+silently redistributing its weight onto the technical sensors.
 
 Daily snapshots are the point-in-time record.  The first run under a new
 ``METHODOLOGY`` rewrites every session inside ``REBUILD_LOOKBACK_DAYS`` once;
@@ -35,6 +41,7 @@ from sqlalchemy.ext.asyncio import AsyncSession
 
 from app.config import settings
 from app.exceptions import ProviderError, ValidationError
+from app.models.regime_fundamental_observation import RegimeFundamentalObservation
 from app.models.regime_snapshot import RegimeSnapshot
 from app.providers.alpaca import AlpacaOHLCVProvider
 from app.services import breadth_service, settings_store
@@ -55,7 +62,11 @@ METHODOLOGY = "v4"
 # against the *stored* blob, so omitting the current one discards the observation
 # on its first write, which leaves fetched_at null and locked false -- and then
 # update_regime_monitor refreshes it via the LLM on every single run, forever.
-CATEGORICAL_FUNDAMENTAL_METHODOLOGIES = frozenset({"v2", "v3", "v4"})
+# "v5" is listed although no v5 scoring exists: a v5 was briefly built (a weighted
+# fundamental modifier on Warning) and reverted, so a development box can have
+# that string sitting in its settings blob. Keeping it costs nothing; omitting it
+# costs the failure above.
+CATEGORICAL_FUNDAMENTAL_METHODOLOGIES = frozenset({"v2", "v3", "v4", "v5"})
 
 # Bumped when a fix changes what historical rows *should* contain without
 # changing the live formula, so stored history needs one reseed.  Deliberately
@@ -173,6 +184,34 @@ WARNING_WEIGHTS = {
     "credit_impulse": 25.0,
 }
 
+# The sourced fundamental read is a **separate channel**, never a term in either
+# score. It is reported as a categorical state beside State and Warning, and the
+# three are read together by confluence rather than added up.
+#
+# Two things had to be true at once and only this shape gets both.
+#
+# **v3's reason for removing it was wrong.** v3 argued that F1+F3, at 12+8 of 100
+# Warning points, "could not change any published conclusion" because pegged they
+# produced a Warning of exactly 20.0. That holds only when every technical sensor
+# reads exactly zero. Weighted, those points added +10 to +20 across the
+# realistic range and moved the technical score needed to reach the 40 quadrant
+# divider from 40 to 25. So the observation was not inert, and demoting it to
+# decoration was not justified by that argument.
+#
+# **But no weight is measurable either.** A weighted modifier was built (v5,
+# reverted) and its size could not be derived from anything: with ~10 correction
+# events and essentially no fundamental history, any fusion weight is a policy
+# preference presented as a measurement. Adding a slow categorical judgement to a
+# fast continuous score also manufactures precision by summing unlike things, and
+# it forces a missing observation to silently redistribute its weight onto the
+# technical sensors -- the opposite of leaving it unknown.
+#
+# So the read gets a channel, not a coefficient. Revisit only with enough
+# point-in-time history to test whether the state improves prediction
+# *conditional on* Warning; a fitted model then has something to fit.
+FUNDAMENTAL_STATES = ("supportive", "neutral", "adverse", "unknown")
+EVIDENCE_QUALITY = ("complete", "partial", "stale", "manual", "unavailable")
+
 # Fixed at the v2 launch.  These are liquid S&P 500/Nasdaq AI, semiconductor,
 # infrastructure, cloud, and enterprise-software names that the platform's
 # normal universe sync already stores.
@@ -196,7 +235,12 @@ DEFAULT_CONFIG: dict = {
 }
 
 CAPEX_STATES = ("raising", "holding", "cutting", "unknown")
-GNSD_STATES = ("yes", "no", "mixed")
+# "mixed" is a genuinely observed mixed reaction; "unknown" is nobody looked or
+# the extraction failed. They were the same value until 2026-08-13, so a failed
+# LLM parse silently became neutral *evidence* -- an observation of normality
+# manufactured out of a parse error. Same distinction the capex map already made
+# with its own "unknown", and the same one the whole channel is built on.
+GNSD_STATES = ("yes", "no", "mixed", "unknown")
 # v2 scored raising and holding identically at 0, so in a capex boom the reading
 # was pinned at 0 and could not express the raising -> holding deceleration that
 # is the actual early warning. Display-only in v3, but it should still describe.
@@ -435,6 +479,104 @@ def score_warning_sensors(sensors: dict[str, float | None]) -> float | None:
     return sum(s * w for s, w in live) / sum(w for _, w in live)
 
 
+def _capex_signal(capex: dict[str, str] | None, names: list[str]) -> str:
+    """Categorical read of hyperscaler capex direction. Never an average.
+
+    Averaging is what this must not do: it would let two ``cutting`` reads and
+    two ``unknown`` ones land on "neutral", presenting missing evidence as
+    evidence of normality. Any cut is adverse on partial evidence; only a fully
+    known, uniformly rising basket is supportive.
+    """
+    states = [str((capex or {}).get(name, "unknown")).strip().lower() for name in names]
+    known = [state for state in states if state in ("raising", "holding", "cutting")]
+    if not known:
+        return "unknown"
+    if "cutting" in known:
+        return "adverse"
+    if "holding" in known:
+        return "neutral"
+    return "supportive"
+
+
+def _reaction_signal(good_news_stock_down: str | None) -> str:
+    """Good earnings being sold is a late-cycle tell; not being sold is healthy.
+
+    Anything that is not one of the three observed categories -- including the
+    explicit ``"unknown"`` an extraction failure now writes -- falls through to
+    ``unknown`` rather than to ``mixed``. A parse error is not a reading.
+    """
+    return {
+        "yes": "adverse",
+        "no": "supportive",
+        "mixed": "neutral",
+    }.get(str(good_news_stock_down or "").strip().lower(), "unknown")
+
+
+def combine_fundamental_signals(capex_signal: str, reaction_signal: str) -> str:
+    """Confluence, not arithmetic: precedence over the two categorical reads.
+
+    ``unknown`` is deliberately unreachable by combination -- it survives only
+    when *nothing* was observed. A single adverse read carries, because partial
+    evidence of deterioration is still evidence of deterioration; supportive
+    requires every observed signal to agree.
+    """
+    signals = (capex_signal, reaction_signal)
+    if "adverse" in signals:
+        return "adverse"
+    observed = [signal for signal in signals if signal != "unknown"]
+    if not observed:
+        return "unknown"
+    return "supportive" if all(signal == "supportive" for signal in observed) else "neutral"
+
+
+def _usable_context(observed: bool, pending: bool, stale: bool, state: str) -> bool:
+    """Whether a fundamental reading may count as evidence.
+
+    One definition, called by both the point-in-time record and the live
+    reading, because they publish the same field name to the same consumers and
+    a second copy would drift. Distinct from `available`, which is about timing
+    alone: an observation whose extraction failed on everything is effective and
+    fresh, and still knows nothing.
+    """
+    return observed and not pending and not stale and state != "unknown"
+
+
+def _evidence_quality(
+    capex: dict[str, str] | None,
+    good_news_stock_down: str | None,
+    names: list[str],
+    *,
+    observed: bool,
+    stale: bool,
+    source: str | None,
+) -> str:
+    """How much to trust the state above, as one field the reader can act on.
+
+    Ordered by what an operator most needs to know: nothing collected beats
+    everything else, then a reading too old to be current, then a hand override,
+    then completeness.
+    """
+    if not observed:
+        return "unavailable"
+    if stale:
+        return "stale"
+    if str(source or "").strip().lower() == "manual":
+        return "manual"
+    known = sum(
+        1
+        for name in names
+        if str((capex or {}).get(name, "unknown")).strip().lower() != "unknown"
+    )
+    # `bool(names)` matters: with an empty basket `known == len(names)` is
+    # vacuously true, so nothing observed would grade as complete.
+    complete = (
+        bool(names)
+        and known == len(names)
+        and _reaction_signal(good_news_stock_down) != "unknown"
+    )
+    return "complete" if complete else "partial"
+
+
 def _sensor(sensor_id: str, label: str, score: float | None, **details: object) -> dict:
     return {
         "id": sensor_id,
@@ -572,26 +714,66 @@ def _overlay_timing(
     return effective, pending, age, stale
 
 
-def fundamental_overlay(overrides: dict, config: dict, as_of: date) -> dict:
+def fundamental_context(overrides: dict, config: dict, as_of: date) -> dict:
-    """Point-in-time qualitative overlay. Never feeds State or Warning since v3.
+    """Point-in-time fundamental channel. Never a term in State or Warning.
+
+    Called an "overlay" until 2026-08-12, which undersold it: it is the third
+    channel of the model, read alongside the two scores by confluence rather than
+    decorating them. The categorical ``state`` is what a reader and the chart
+    consume; ``evidence_quality`` is how far to trust it.
+
+    Both are derived from the stored categorical facts by fixed rules, not from
+    an LLM's numeric judgement. The LLM's job is extraction and explanation --
+    find the capex guidance, classify it, cite it -- and the rules turn those
+    facts into a state, so the same observation always yields the same category.
 
     The effective-date gate stays even though nothing is scored from this: the
-    400-session rebuild replays historical dates, and stamping today's LLM read
+    rebuild replays historical dates, and stamping today's read onto 2024
-    onto 2024 snapshots would be plain lookahead in the stored record.
+    snapshots would be plain lookahead in the stored record.
 
     This is the *record*. For "what do we know right now", use
     ``current_observation`` -- do not add a bypass flag here, because this runs
     for every replayed date during a rebuild.
     """
     effective, pending, age, stale = _overlay_timing(overrides, config, as_of)
+    names = list(config["tickers"]["hyperscalers"])
+    capex = None if pending else overrides.get("capex")
+    reaction = None if pending else overrides.get("good_news_stock_down")
+    observed = not pending and bool(overrides.get("fetched_at"))
+
+    capex_signal = _capex_signal(capex, names) if observed else "unknown"
+    reaction_signal = _reaction_signal(reaction) if observed else "unknown"
+    state = combine_fundamental_signals(capex_signal, reaction_signal)
     return {
+        "state": state,
+        "evidence_quality": _evidence_quality(
+            capex, reaction, names,
+            observed=observed, stale=stale, source=overrides.get("source"),
+        ),
+        "capex_signal": capex_signal,
+        "reaction_signal": reaction_signal,
+        # Two different questions, and conflating them is a trap:
+        #
+        # `available` is about *timing* -- there is an effective, non-stale record
+        # to display. `usable` is about *content* -- it also actually says
+        # something. A collected observation whose extraction failed on every
+        # hyperscaler is available (show it, with its date) but not usable: it
+        # knows nothing, so it must never count as evidence.
+        #
+        # The distinction is load-bearing for the event study. Coverage is
+        # measured in sessions with usable context, and if repeated extraction
+        # failures counted, they would slowly accumulate "exposure" until the
+        # fundamental rows flipped to measurable 0/8 -- a failed result reported
+        # for a channel that never knew anything, which is the exact confusion
+        # coverage-matching exists to prevent.
         "available": not pending and not stale,
+        "usable": _usable_context(observed, pending, stale, state),
         "pending": pending,
         "stale": stale,
         "effective_date": effective.isoformat() if effective else None,
         "age_days": age,
-        "capex": None if pending else overrides.get("capex"),
+        "capex": capex,
-        "good_news_stock_down": None if pending else overrides.get("good_news_stock_down"),
+        "good_news_stock_down": reaction,
         "capex_stress": None if pending else overrides.get("f1_score"),
         "earnings_stress": None if pending else overrides.get("f3_score"),
         "reasoning": None if pending else overrides.get("reasoning"),
@@ -603,7 +785,7 @@ def fundamental_overlay(overrides: dict, config: dict, as_of: date) -> dict:
 def current_observation(overrides: dict, config: dict, as_of: date) -> dict:
     """The observation as it stands now, for the live reading only.
 
-    Same shape as ``fundamental_overlay``, but the effective date is *reported*
+    Same shape as ``fundamental_context``, but the effective date is *reported*
     rather than used to blank the content.  A refresh stamps
     ``_next_weekday(today)``, so gating the live card hid a just-collected read
     for one day -- three over a weekend -- and refreshing appeared to do
@@ -611,14 +793,36 @@ def current_observation(overrides: dict, config: dict, as_of: date) -> dict:
     published number; the stored snapshot keeps the gate.
     """
     effective, pending, age, stale = _overlay_timing(overrides, config, as_of)
-    # The default override carries "unknown"/"mixed" placeholders for every
+    # The default override carries "unknown" placeholders for every
     # hyperscaler.  Those are the absence of an observation, not an observation
     # of absence, and must never be presented as collected.  ``fetched_at`` is
     # the collection timestamp and is the only field written on every path that
     # produces real content (LLM refresh and manual save both stamp it).
     observed = bool(overrides.get("fetched_at"))
+    names = list(config["tickers"]["hyperscalers"])
+    capex_signal = _capex_signal(overrides.get("capex"), names) if observed else "unknown"
+    reaction_signal = (
+        _reaction_signal(overrides.get("good_news_stock_down")) if observed else "unknown"
+    )
+    state = combine_fundamental_signals(capex_signal, reaction_signal)
     return {
         "observed": observed,
+        "state": state,
+        "evidence_quality": _evidence_quality(
+            overrides.get("capex"), overrides.get("good_news_stock_down"), names,
+            observed=observed, stale=stale, source=overrides.get("source"),
+        ),
+        "capex_signal": capex_signal,
+        "reaction_signal": reaction_signal,
+        # Same shape as the record means the same *fields*, not just the same
+        # ones this function happens to need: the frontend types both payloads
+        # identically, so an omission here is an undefined at runtime that
+        # TypeScript cannot catch across a trusted server boundary.
+        #
+        # Note this is stricter than the `available` directly below: a pending
+        # observation is the freshest thing we have and worth showing, but it is
+        # not yet in force, so it is not yet evidence.
+        "usable": _usable_context(observed, pending, stale, state),
         # Live availability is about usefulness, not effectiveness: a pending
         # observation is the freshest thing we have -- but nothing collected is
         # never available.
@@ -656,8 +860,16 @@ def _compute_index(
     breadth_series: Series | None = None,
     divergence_series: Series | None = None,
     breadth_counts: dict[date, int] | None = None,
+    observations: list[dict] | None = None,
 ) -> dict:
-    """Compute the complete State/Warning snapshot as of one trading date."""
+    """Compute the complete State/Warning snapshot as of one trading date.
+
+    ``observations`` is the point-in-time fundamental series and is authoritative
+    when supplied; ``overrides`` is the single-slot fallback for callers that
+    predate the table (the calibration harness). Either way the reading is scored
+    into the same ``fundamental_context`` -- only where it is read from differs,
+    so the live monitor and the event study cannot report different states.
+    """
     tickers = config["tickers"]
     smh = _closes_asof(prices.get(tickers["leaders"][0], []), as_of)
     qqq = _closes_asof(prices.get(tickers["confirm"][0], []), as_of)
@@ -682,7 +894,10 @@ def _compute_index(
     sensors = warning_sensor_scores(divergence, smh, spy, oas_window)
     relative_strength = sensors["relative_strength"]
     credit_impulse = sensors["credit_impulse"]
-    overlay = fundamental_overlay(overrides, config, as_of)
+    observation = (
+        observation_asof(observations, as_of) if observations is not None else overrides
+    ) or {}
+    context = fundamental_context(observation, config, as_of)
 
     state_pillars = [
         {
@@ -768,7 +983,7 @@ def _compute_index(
         "date": as_of.isoformat(),
         "state": state,
         "warning": warning,
-        "fundamental_overlay": overlay,
+        "fundamental_context": context,
         "quadrant_config": {
             "state_divider": QUADRANT_STATE_DIVIDER,
             "warning_divider": QUADRANT_WARNING_DIVIDER,
@@ -790,8 +1005,8 @@ def _compute_index(
             "breadth_pct_above_200": round(breadth_pct, 1) if breadth_pct is not None else None,
             "breadth_date": breadth_item[0].isoformat() if breadth_item else None,
             "fundamentals_fetched_at": overrides.get("fetched_at"),
-            "fundamentals_effective_date": overlay.get("effective_date"),
+            "fundamentals_effective_date": context.get("effective_date"),
-            "fundamentals_age_days": overlay.get("age_days"),
+            "fundamentals_age_days": context.get("age_days"),
         },
         "data_quality": {
             "minimum_coverage": MIN_COVERAGE,
@@ -859,7 +1074,7 @@ async def get_fundamental_overrides(db: AsyncSession) -> dict:
         "f1_score": None,
         "f3_score": None,
         "capex": {name: "unknown" for name in names},
-        "good_news_stock_down": "mixed",
+        "good_news_stock_down": "unknown",
         "locked": False,
         "reasoning": None,
         "fetched_at": None,
@@ -880,9 +1095,9 @@ async def get_fundamental_overrides(db: AsyncSession) -> dict:
     if stored.get("methodology") not in CATEGORICAL_FUNDAMENTAL_METHODOLOGIES:
         return default
     capex = _normalise_capex_states(stored.get("capex"), names)
-    reaction = str(stored.get("good_news_stock_down", "mixed")).strip().lower()
+    reaction = str(stored.get("good_news_stock_down", "unknown")).strip().lower()
     if reaction not in GNSD_STATES:
-        reaction = "mixed"
+        reaction = "unknown"
     return {
         **default,
         **stored,
@@ -922,6 +1137,100 @@ def _score_capex_states(capex: dict[str, str], names: list[str]) -> float | None
     return round(score, 1) if score is not None else None
 
 
+async def record_fundamental_observation(db: AsyncSession, observation: dict) -> None:
+    """Append the observation to the point-in-time series, keyed on effective date.
+
+    Upsert rather than insert: re-saving on the same effective date is a
+    correction to that day's reading, not a second observation of it.
+
+    Silently does nothing without an effective date or a ``fetched_at``. Those
+    are the default placeholder blob -- the absence of an observation, which must
+    never enter the series as though someone had looked.
+
+    Deliberately does **not** commit. ``update_regime_monitor`` calls this inside
+    a run that owns its transaction and commits once after the snapshot loop;
+    committing here would take that boundary away from it. The two override
+    writers commit for themselves.
+    """
+    effective = _parse_date(observation.get("effective_date"))
+    fetched_raw = observation.get("fetched_at")
+    if effective is None or not fetched_raw:
+        return
+    try:
+        fetched = datetime.fromisoformat(str(fetched_raw))
+    except ValueError:
+        fetched = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+    if fetched.tzinfo is None:
+        fetched = fetched.replace(tzinfo=timezone.utc)
+
+    existing = await db.execute(
+        select(RegimeFundamentalObservation).where(
+            RegimeFundamentalObservation.effective_date == effective
+        )
+    )
+    row = existing.scalar_one_or_none()
+    payload = {
+        "f1_score": observation.get("f1_score"),
+        "f3_score": observation.get("f3_score"),
+        "capex_json": json.dumps(observation.get("capex") or {}),
+        "good_news_stock_down": str(observation.get("good_news_stock_down") or "unknown")[:10],
+        "reasoning": observation.get("reasoning"),
+        "source": str(observation.get("source") or "unknown")[:30],
+        "fetched_at": fetched,
+    }
+    if row is None:
+        db.add(RegimeFundamentalObservation(
+            effective_date=effective,
+            created_at=datetime.now(timezone.utc),
+            **payload,
+        ))
+    else:
+        for key, value in payload.items():
+            setattr(row, key, value)
+
+
+async def get_fundamental_observations(db: AsyncSession) -> list[dict]:
+    """The whole observation series, oldest first, for point-in-time scoring."""
+    result = await db.execute(
+        select(RegimeFundamentalObservation).order_by(
+            RegimeFundamentalObservation.effective_date.asc()
+        )
+    )
+    out: list[dict] = []
+    for row in result.scalars().all():
+        try:
+            capex = json.loads(row.capex_json)
+        except (TypeError, ValueError):
+            capex = {}
+        out.append({
+            "effective_date": row.effective_date,
+            "f1_score": row.f1_score,
+            "f3_score": row.f3_score,
+            "capex": capex,
+            "good_news_stock_down": row.good_news_stock_down,
+            "reasoning": row.reasoning,
+            "source": row.source,
+            "fetched_at": row.fetched_at.isoformat() if row.fetched_at else None,
+        })
+    return out
+
+
+def observation_asof(observations: list[dict] | None, as_of: date) -> dict | None:
+    """Latest observation effective on or before ``as_of``.
+
+    This *is* the effective-date gate now. The settings-blob version had to
+    recompute it per call because there was only ever one observation to gate;
+    with a series, "which reading was live that day" is just a lookup.
+    """
+    chosen: dict | None = None
+    for observation in observations or []:
+        if observation["effective_date"] <= as_of:
+            chosen = observation
+        else:
+            break
+    return chosen
+
+
 async def set_fundamental_overrides(
     db: AsyncSession,
     capex: dict[str, str] | None = None,
@@ -954,7 +1263,15 @@ async def set_fundamental_overrides(
             "fetched_at": now.isoformat(),
             "effective_date": _next_weekday(now.date()).isoformat(),
         })
-    await update_setting(db, KEY_FUNDAMENTALS, json.dumps(current))
+    # The blob (what the live card reads) and the series row (what the
+    # point-in-time replay reads) are the same observation. Committed together:
+    # `update_setting` commits internally, so using it here would leave a window
+    # where a failure publishes the reading to the card but not to the record,
+    # and the two would disagree permanently with nothing to detect it.
+    await settings_store.upsert_setting(db, KEY_FUNDAMENTALS, json.dumps(current))
+    if observation_changed:
+        await record_fundamental_observation(db, current)
+    await db.commit()
     return current
 
 
@@ -1058,12 +1375,59 @@ def _snapshot_revision(snapshot: dict) -> int:
         return 1
 
 
+def _context_from_legacy_overlay(overlay: dict) -> dict:
+    """Rebuild the categorical channel from a pre-rename snapshot's overlay.
+
+    The channel was called ``fundamental_overlay`` until 2026-08-12 and stored
+    the same underlying facts -- the capex map, the earnings reaction, the
+    effective date. The rename shipped without a methodology bump (no score
+    changed), so those rows are still served and were never reseeded: reading
+    only the new key would turn every one of them into ``unknown`` and silently
+    discard real recorded evidence -- historical Path colours, and any exposure
+    the event study could legitimately count.
+
+    Derived, not guessed. The hyperscaler list comes from the overlay's own
+    capex keys, which is exactly the basket that was observed at the time rather
+    than today's configured one.
+    """
+    capex = overlay.get("capex") or {}
+    reaction = overlay.get("good_news_stock_down")
+    names = list(capex)
+    pending = bool(overlay.get("pending"))
+    stale = bool(overlay.get("stale"))
+    observed = not pending and bool(overlay.get("fetched_at"))
+
+    capex_signal = _capex_signal(capex, names) if observed else "unknown"
+    reaction_signal = _reaction_signal(reaction) if observed else "unknown"
+    state = combine_fundamental_signals(capex_signal, reaction_signal)
+    return {
+        **overlay,
+        "state": state,
+        "evidence_quality": _evidence_quality(
+            capex, reaction, names,
+            observed=observed, stale=stale, source=overlay.get("source"),
+        ),
+        "capex_signal": capex_signal,
+        "reaction_signal": reaction_signal,
+        "usable": _usable_context(observed, pending, stale, state),
+    }
+
+
 def _parse_snapshot(raw: str) -> dict | None:
     try:
         parsed = json.loads(raw)
     except (TypeError, ValueError):
         return None
-    return parsed if parsed.get("methodology") == METHODOLOGY else None
+    if parsed.get("methodology") != METHODOLOGY:
+        return None
+    # Normalise here rather than at each call site: every reader of a stored
+    # snapshot goes through this function, so a legacy row cannot reach one of
+    # them un-adapted.
+    if "fundamental_context" not in parsed and "fundamental_overlay" in parsed:
+        parsed["fundamental_context"] = _context_from_legacy_overlay(
+            parsed["fundamental_overlay"] or {}
+        )
+    return parsed
 
 
 async def _latest_snapshot_row(db: AsyncSession) -> tuple[RegimeSnapshot, dict] | None:
@@ -1082,6 +1446,10 @@ async def update_regime_monitor(
 ) -> dict:
     config = await get_regime_config(db)
     overrides = await get_fundamental_overrides(db)
+    # Carries the pre-v5 single-slot observation into the series on first run, so
+    # a deployment does not lose the live reading. A no-op once recorded, and a
+    # no-op for the placeholder blob (no fetched_at).
+    await record_fundamental_observation(db, overrides)
     if _fundamentals_stale(overrides, config) and not overrides.get("locked"):
         try:
             overrides = await refresh_fundamental_overrides(db, config=config)
@@ -1131,6 +1499,9 @@ async def update_regime_monitor(
 
     breadth_series = _mapping_series(breadth)
     divergence_series = _mapping_series(divergence)
+    # Loaded once, after any refresh, so a reseed scores each replayed date with
+    # the observation that was effective on it rather than with today's.
+    observations = await get_fundamental_observations(db)
     latest_result: dict | None = None
     snapshots_written = 0
     for snapshot_date in dates:
@@ -1144,6 +1515,7 @@ async def update_regime_monitor(
             breadth_series,
             divergence_series,
             breadth_counts,
+            observations=observations,
         )
         written, latest_result = await _upsert_snapshot(
             db,
@@ -1221,16 +1593,22 @@ async def get_regime_monitor(db: AsyncSession) -> dict:
     quality["is_fresh"] = bool(quality.get("inputs_fresh")) and snapshot_age <= 4
     result["data_quality"] = quality
 
-    # The snapshot's overlay is the point-in-time record; the reader also wants
+    # The snapshot's `fundamental_context` is the point-in-time record; the
-    # the current observation even when it is not effective until the next
+    # reader also wants the current observation even when it is not effective
-    # session, because otherwise refreshing it looks like it did nothing.
+    # until the next session, or refreshing it looks like it did nothing.
     config = await get_regime_config(db)
     overrides = await get_fundamental_overrides(db)
     live = current_observation(overrides, config, date.today())
-    # Deliberately reads the *snapshot's* overlay, not the live one: this is how
+    # Deliberately reads the *snapshot's* record, not the live one: this is how
     # the reader tells "shown here" from "in the stored record".
-    live["observed_in_snapshot"] = bool((result.get("fundamental_overlay") or {}).get("available"))
+    live["observed_in_snapshot"] = bool(
-    result["fundamental_context"] = live
+        (result.get("fundamental_context") or {}).get("available")
+    )
+    # `fundamental_context` is the stored channel and stays the snapshot's;
+    # `fundamental_live` is what we know right now. Collapsing the two under one
+    # key is what made a just-collected observation look like it had been
+    # backdated into history.
+    result["fundamental_live"] = live
     result["available"] = True
     return result
 
@@ -1248,10 +1626,17 @@ async def get_regime_history(db: AsyncSession, days: int = 800) -> list[dict]:
         if data is None:
             continue
         state, warning = data.get("state") or {}, data.get("warning") or {}
+        context = data.get("fundamental_context") or {}
         out.append({
             "date": row.date.isoformat(),
             "state": state.get("score") if state.get("band") is not None else None,
             "warning": warning.get("score") if warning.get("band") is not None else None,
+            # The third channel, carried per point so the Path view can colour a
+            # dot by the fundamental context that was on the record that day.
+            # Rows written before the channel existed carry nothing, which reads
+            # as "unknown" -- correct, since nothing was observed then either.
+            "fundamental_state": context.get("state") or "unknown",
+            "evidence_quality": context.get("evidence_quality") or "unavailable",
             "state_coverage": state.get("coverage"),
             "warning_coverage": warning.get("coverage"),
             "basket_hash": (data.get("basket") or {}).get("hash"),
@@ -1383,7 +1768,7 @@ async def refresh_fundamental_overrides(
     f1 = _score_capex_states(capex, names)
     reaction = str(parsed.get("good_news_stock_down", "")).strip().lower()
     if reaction not in GNSD_STATES:
-        reaction = "mixed"
+        reaction = "unknown"
     f3 = _GNSD_SCORES.get(reaction)
     now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
     result = {
@@ -1398,7 +1783,11 @@ async def refresh_fundamental_overrides(
         "locked": False,
         "source": llm.get("provider"),
     }
-    await update_setting(db, KEY_FUNDAMENTALS, json.dumps(result))
+    # One transaction: see set_fundamental_overrides on why these two writes must
+    # not be able to land separately.
+    await settings_store.upsert_setting(db, KEY_FUNDAMENTALS, json.dumps(result))
+    await record_fundamental_observation(db, result)
+    await db.commit()
     logger.info(json.dumps({
         "event": "regime_fundamentals_refreshed",
         "f1": result["f1_score"],

docs/research/regime-monitor-v4.md

@@ -39,6 +39,162 @@ session, the calendar anchors, 100% coverage on every row, and a row-wise
 `state_v4 <= state_v3` invariant. Reading a calibration result out of a run whose
 pipeline did not validate is meant to be structurally impossible.
 
+## The fundamental channel (2026-08-12)
+
+The monitor has **three channels**, not two scores with a decoration:
+
+- **State** — current observable technical stress (price, breadth, credit, volatility).
+- **Warning** — observable deterioration that may precede stress (breadth
+  divergence, relative strength, credit impulse).
+- **Fundamental context** — a categorical state (`supportive` / `neutral` /
+  `adverse` / `unknown`) with an `evidence_quality` grade.
+
+The third is **never a term in the other two**. They are read together by
+confluence:
+
+| Warning | Fundamentals | Reading |
+|---|---|---|
+| Calm | Supportive/neutral | Normal |
+| Elevated | Supportive/neutral | Technical warning, not fundamentally confirmed |
+| Calm | Adverse | Fundamental concern; tape has not confirmed |
+| Elevated | Adverse | Confluence — highest attention |
+
+`METHODOLOGY` stays **v4**: no score changed, so partitioning the history API and
+discarding the event study cache would be churn. `STUDY_SCHEMA` moved to 3
+instead, and is now the only thing that discards a stale report.
+
+### Why the read is a channel and not a weight
+
+Two things are true at once, and only this shape honours both.
+
+**v3's reason for removing fundamentals from the score was wrong.** Not stale —
+wrong. v3 argued that F1 (capex) and F3 (good-news-stock-down), carrying 12 + 8
+of 100 Warning points, "could not change any published conclusion" because pegged
+they produced a Warning of exactly 20.0, below the alarm threshold. That
+arithmetic holds only when *every* technical sensor reads exactly zero, which is
+the one case that never matters. Warning is a weighted average, so the sensors
+add:
+
+| technical Warning | without fundamentals | with them pegged | delta |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| 0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | +20.0 |
+| 20 | 20.0 | 36.0 | +16.0 |
+| 25 | 25.0 | **40.0** | +15.0 |
+| 35 | 35.0 | **48.0** | +13.0 |
+| 50 | 50.0 | 60.0 | +10.0 |
+| 80 | 80.0 | 84.0 | +4.0 |
+
+Pegged fundamentals lowered the technical Warning needed to reach the 40 quadrant
+divider from 40 to 25. That is a 15-point shift in where the alert fires, which
+is emphatically a changed conclusion. The v3 section below is kept as written,
+with this correction attached, because its reasoning is cited elsewhere in this
+file and a silent overwrite would hide that the error was ever made.
+
+**But no weight is measurable either.** A weighted modifier was built and
+reverted: 0–25 points added onto the technical Warning, sized so a maxed-out read
+carried a calm tape over the 40 divider on its own. Nothing could justify the 25.
+With ~10 correction events and essentially no fundamental history, any fusion
+weight is a policy preference presented as a measurement — and the debate it
+invites ("does the read deserve 10%, 20%, 30%?") has no evidence that can settle
+it. Adding a slow categorical judgement to a fast continuous score also
+manufactures precision by summing unlike things, and it forces a missing
+observation to silently redistribute its weight onto the technical sensors, which
+is the opposite of leaving it unknown.
+
+So: the read gets a channel, not a coefficient. Both facts survive — the v3
+removal was badly argued *and* no weight is defensible — because "report it
+separately" is the only design that neither buries the observation nor invents a
+number for it.
+
+### Derivation
+
+Deterministic, from the stored categorical facts. The LLM is an **extraction and
+explanation layer**: it finds the capex guidance, classifies it, and cites it.
+Fixed rules turn those facts into a state, so the same observation always yields
+the same category.
+
+`capex_signal`: any `cutting` → adverse; else any `holding` → neutral; else all
+known `raising` → supportive; nothing known → unknown.
+`reaction_signal`: `yes` → adverse, `mixed` → neutral, `no` → supportive,
+`unknown` → unknown.
+
+`mixed` and `unknown` are different reaction states and were merged until
+2026-08-13. A failed LLM parse fell back to `mixed`, so an extraction error
+became *neutral evidence* — an observation of normality manufactured out of a
+bug. `mixed` now means an observed mixed reaction; anything unreadable, missing
+or unattempted is `unknown` and contributes nothing.
+
+Combined by precedence, never by averaging: **any adverse read carries**; both
+unknown → unknown; every observed signal supportive → supportive; otherwise
+neutral.
+
+`unknown` is deliberately unreachable by combination. Averaging would let two
+`cutting` reads and two `unknown` ones land on "neutral", presenting missing
+evidence as evidence of normality — the same conflation `current_observation`
+already refuses between "no observation" and "an observation of zero". Two cuts
+and two unknowns read **adverse with `evidence_quality: partial`**.
+
+`evidence_quality` is ordered by what an operator needs first: `unavailable`
+(nothing collected) → `stale` (past `fundamental_staleness_days`) → `manual`
+(hand override) → `complete` / `partial`.
+
+### Presentation and alerts
+
+The Path view colours each dot by the fundamental state recorded that day; the
+axes are untouched, because context is confluence information rather than a
+position on either axis. The card leads with the state and evidence grade.
+
+Alerts stay **separate**, off one toggle:
+
+- quadrant change — the market axes moved (existing);
+- `regime_fundamental` — the context changed, e.g. neutral → adverse;
+- `regime_confluence` — Warning elevated *and* fundamentals adverse.
+
+`unknown` never alerts: an absence of evidence is not a change in the evidence,
+and alerting on it would train the reader to ignore the channel. Both new
+triggers seed silently on first run, as the quadrant alert does.
+
+### The observation is now a real time series
+
+`regime_fundamental_observations` (migration 033), one row per `effective_date`,
+upserted. Before this it lived in a single `SystemSetting` slot that every
+refresh overwrote, so no history existed at all — which made the read impossible
+to replay, impossible to backtest, and meant a rebuild recorded every historical
+session as if nothing had been observed. `update_regime_monitor` carries the
+pre-existing single-slot observation into the series on its next run.
+
+### What this does not establish
+
+The table starts empty and fills one observation at a time, so the fundamental
+rows are **untested, not failed**. Two things enforce that rather than one:
+
+- they are **coverage-matched** — scored only on sessions where the channel had
+  usable context and on corrections whose warning horizon fell inside it, with a
+  market-only comparator over the identical window so any difference between them
+  is the channel and not the window;
+- `measurable` stays false until `MIN_EVENTS_FOR_CONFIDENCE` corrections are
+  covered, and the panel prints "insufficient exposure" rather than a ratio.
+
+Without the first, one day of coverage would render as 0/10 — recreating, one
+observation later, exactly the tested-versus-unavailable confusion the flag was
+added to prevent. The market rows are unchanged, and the 1/10 shipped-rule figure
+remains a verdict on the technical sensors and the alert machinery alone.
+
+The rationale for expecting the read to matter is the operator's: hyperscaler
+capex is the demand side of the entire AI trade, and good earnings being sold is
+a classic late-cycle tell. Both are plausible. Neither is measured here, and this
+file's convention is that published numbers are reproducible.
+
+**The path forward is accumulation, then a test — in that order.** Once enough
+point-in-time observations exist, test whether the state improves prediction
+*conditional on* Warning. If it does, a fitted and calibrated model has something
+to fit; until then there is nothing to calibrate against. Backfilling would get
+there faster: capex direction is derivable from the 10-Q/10-K capex line, which
+the SEC fundamentals import already carries, and "good news, stock down" from
+earnings dates plus next-day returns, which the Dolt earnings import already
+carries. That last one is worth computing deterministically rather than asking
+the LLM to judge, for the same reason the state derivation is rule-based.
+
 ## What changed in v4
 
 **V1 stopped saturating at VIX 30.** `(vix - 15) / 15` reached 100 at VIX 30 —
@@ -81,6 +237,16 @@ a qualitative overlay reported beside the scores. Capex also stopped scoring
 `raising` and `holding` identically at 0: `holding` is the deceleration case and
 now scores 50, so a boom no longer reads the same as a stall.
 
+> **Corrected 2026-08-12.** The claim in this paragraph is false. "Pegged
+> they produced a Warning of exactly 20.0" describes only the case where every
+> technical sensor reads zero; Warning is a weighted average, so in the general
+> case those 20 points added +10 to +20 and moved the technical score needed to
+> reach the 40 quadrant divider from 40 to 25. The observation was removed for
+> being *underweighted*, on reasoning that mistook a corner case for the whole
+> range. See "The fundamental channel" above for what replaced it — a separate
+> categorical channel, not a restored weight. The capex `holding` rescale in the second half
+> of this paragraph stands and is still live.
+
 **The drawdown sensor stopped saturating.** v2 used `dd_pct * 5`, reaching 100 at
 a 20% drawdown — the 90th percentile of the observed distribution. 39 of 408
 sessions sat at exactly 100 with no resolution left, and the price pillar showed
@@ -126,7 +292,11 @@ upper half of the Warning axis was unreachable.
 - 60-session SMH/SPY relative-strength deterioration, 30%.
 - HY OAS 20-session widening, 25%.
 
-Combined, RSP/SPY (former F4), and the NVDA canary (former P6) do not enter v3 or v4.
+**Fundamental context** — a categorical third channel, not a term in either
+score. See "The fundamental channel" above.
+
+Combined, RSP/SPY (former F4), and the NVDA canary (former P6) do not enter v3
+or v4.
 
 ## Calibration
 
@@ -279,31 +449,73 @@ reseed exists to close. The history API and main chart show only snapshots match
 the current methodology, so a bump reseeds the series rather than splicing two
 formulas into one line.
 
-The fundamental overlay keeps its effective date (normally the next session after
+The fundamental channel keeps its effective date (normally the next session after
 collection) and is never replayed backward, so a rebuild cannot stamp today's
-observation onto historical snapshots. Because the observation is stored in a
+observation onto historical snapshots. Since the observations became a real
-single slot, a refresh replaces the previously effective record: the snapshot
+series (`regime_fundamental_observations`, migration 033), the effective-date
-therefore reports the overlay as `pending` until the new effective date.
+lookup *is* the gate: a replayed session gets whichever observation was live on
+it, and sessions before the first one read `unknown`.
 
-Two functions, deliberately: `fundamental_overlay` is the **record** and keeps
+Two functions, deliberately: `fundamental_context` is the **record** and keeps
 the gate — it runs for every replayed date during a rebuild, so it must never
 grow a bypass flag. `current_observation` is the **live reading** behind
-`fundamental_context`, and *reports* the effective date instead of blanking the
+`fundamental_live`, and *reports* the effective date instead of blanking the
 content.
 
 Until 2026-08-07 the live reading called the gated function, so a just-collected
 observation stayed hidden until the next weekday — three days over a weekend —
 and refreshing appeared to do nothing. That was the opposite of what this section
-already claimed. Showing it early cannot leak into a published number, because
+already claimed. Showing it early cannot leak into a published score, because
-nothing in the overlay is scored (see "Fundamentals left the score").
+nothing in the channel is scored.
 
 `current_observation` gates on `observed` (a non-null `fetched_at`, the one field
 every path writing real content stamps). Without it, the default override —
-`unknown` for every hyperscaler and `mixed` for the reaction — was reported as a
+`unknown` for every hyperscaler and, since 2026-08-13, `unknown` for the reaction
-live observation with `available: true`, so the card presented placeholders as a
+— was reported as a live observation with `available: true`, so the card
-collected reading. Those are the absence of an observation, not an observation of
+presented placeholders as a collected reading. Those are the absence of an
-absence. `fundamental_overlay` never had this problem: no observation means no
+observation, not an observation of absence. `fundamental_context` never had this
-effective date, which means `pending`, which already blanks the content.
+problem: no observation means no effective date, which means `pending`, which
+already blanks the content.
+
+**`usable` is what may confirm; `available` is only what to display.** Three
+distinct things, and collapsing any two of them is a bug:
+
+- `state` — the last thing observed. Survives going stale, so the card can show it.
+- `available` — *timing*: there is an effective, non-stale record to display.
+- `usable` — *content*: available **and** the observation actually determined
+  something (`state != "unknown"`).
+
+The confluence alert and all three coverage-matched study rules gate on `usable`.
+Gating on `available` instead has two failure modes, and both were live at some
+point in this design:
+
+1. a reading past `fundamental_staleness_days` would corroborate every Warning
+   crossing indefinitely — the strongest claim this channel makes, from the data
+   with the least right to make it;
+2. an LLM run that failed to extract anything produces a perfectly fresh
+   observation that knows nothing. Counting it as exposure means repeated
+   extraction failures slowly accumulate coverage until the fundamental rows flip
+   to a *measurable* 0/8 — a failed result published for a channel that never saw
+   a thing, which is precisely what coverage-matching exists to prevent.
+
+**Pre-rename snapshots are adapted, not discarded.** The channel was stored as
+`fundamental_overlay` until 2026-08-12. The rename shipped without a methodology
+bump — no score changed — so those rows are still served and were never reseeded.
+Reading only the new key would have turned every one of them into `unknown`,
+silently dropping real recorded evidence: historical Path colours, and exposure
+the event study can legitimately count. `_parse_snapshot` derives the channel
+from a legacy overlay's own stored facts (its capex map supplies the basket, so
+the derivation uses the names observed at the time rather than today's config).
+Normalising there rather than at each call site means no reader can receive an
+un-adapted row. Delete only after a reseed has rewritten the whole window.
+
+**The blob and the series row are one transaction.** They are the same
+observation seen by the live card and by the point-in-time replay; committing
+them separately leaves a window where a failure publishes one and not the other,
+and the two then disagree permanently with nothing to detect it. Both writers use
+`settings_store.upsert_setting` (which does not commit) plus a single commit;
+`record_fundamental_observation` deliberately takes no commit of its own so
+`update_regime_monitor` keeps its own transaction boundary.
 
 Each snapshot stores the fixed basket symbols, hash, and freeze date.
 Reconstructed history before that freeze date is retrospective/exploratory.
@@ -321,39 +533,185 @@ today's number. The quadrant dividers rendered in Path view come from
 
 ## Warning study
 
-The study calls the outcome a **10% correction**, not a regime break. The first
+The study calls the outcome a **10% correction**, not a regime break. It measures
-70% of sessions freezes the 80th-percentile warning threshold; alarm episodes are
+two rules against that outcome, plus enough context to tell whether either number
-measured on the final 30%. Because v3 dropped fundamentals from the score, the
+is any good.
-study now measures exactly the live Warning score rather than a technical-only
-approximation of it, and both are computed from one shared sensor definition
-(`warning_sensor_scores`) so they cannot drift apart.
 
-A cached report is discarded when its methodology no longer matches, so the panel
+A cached report is discarded when its methodology no longer matches *or* when
-reverts to "not run yet" after a bump rather than showing stale numbers. **Re-run
+`STUDY_SCHEMA` moves, so the panel reverts to "not run yet" rather than showing
-the Event Study job after cutting over to v4.**
+stale numbers or a report missing half its blocks. **Re-run the Event Study job
+after a methodology cutover or a schema bump.**
+
+### The headline is the rule that actually fires
+
+Until 2026-08-12 the study measured a bare rising-edge crossing of an
+80th-percentile threshold fitted on the first 70% of sessions. **Nothing consumes
+that rule.** What reaches Telegram is `_collect_regime_quadrant`: a quadrant
+change with State ≥ 50 and Warning ≥ 40 as fixed dividers, a ±5 hysteresis
+deadband, a two-session confirmation, a 3-day cooldown, and a 75% coverage gate
+on both axes. The two differ on every one of those axes, including the threshold
+itself (a fitted ~32 against a shipped 40).
+
+`replay_quadrant_changes` replays the shipped state machine over the whole
+sample. Three details are reproduced rather than cleaned up, because a state
+machine written from first principles gets each of them wrong:
+
+- the prior session is classified against the **current baseline**, not against
+  its own predecessor, so confirmation asks "did yesterday already look like this
+  change" rather than "did yesterday change too";
+- the baseline advances only when an alert actually fires, so a change blocked by
+  confirmation or cooldown is re-evaluated against the old quadrant next session;
+- one cooldown is shared by every quadrant change, so a 3→4 alert can swallow a
+  4→2 alert three days later.
+
+Two consequences worth stating. The alarm is dated at the **confirmation**, not
+at the first crossing, which costs one session of lead by construction. And the
+rule alerts on changes in both directions, so the replay's exits are recorded but
+filtered out by `entry_alarms` — only entering a Warning-high quadrant is a
+warning about anything.
+
+The replay reuses `_compute_index` rather than re-deriving the axes. That is the
+same anti-drift argument that produced `warning_sensor_scores`: the v2 study
+re-derived Warning by hand and would have kept measuring the old construct
+through a scoring change. State has no equivalent shared helper, so the snapshot
+builder itself is the shared definition.
+
+**Nothing is fitted, so nothing needs protecting from a training set.** There is
+no split, and every detected correction is evaluable instead of the four that
+happen to land in the last 30%. The `underpowered` and "threshold frozen on a
+different construct" caveats do not apply to this variant.
 
 ### Reading the result
 
-The report carries a `reliability` block and the UI renders its warnings, because
+A bare "2 of 4" is unreadable in either direction, so the report scores four more
-the headline numbers invite over-reading in two specific ways.
+rules through the same `evaluate_alarms` harness over the same events and
+sessions, and adds a null. All use fixed thresholds — a threshold fitted on the
+full sample would have lookahead the shipped rule does not, and one fitted on a
+split could only be scored on the holdout events.
+
+| kind | rules | the question |
+|---|---|---|
+| ablation | Warning ≥ 40 bare, State ≥ 50 bare | does the quadrant machinery earn its place? |
+| baseline | leader below its 50-DMA, VIX ≥ 20 | does the score earn its complexity? |
+| null | K random alarms at the observed firing rate | is any of this better than chance? |
+
+The two kinds must not be read as one list. If a baseline matches the score, the
+composite is not earning its complexity and that is the finding — it does not
+mean the monitor is worthless, since State and Warning exist to be *read*, but it
+caps how much further calibration is justified. If the bare Warning crossing
+beats the shipped rule, the machinery (not the sensor) is what is costing recall.
+
+The null draws only from sessions a rule could actually have fired on. Over the
+whole sample it would be diluted by warm-up sessions and would understate what
+chance achieves — which matters, because with ~11 events and a 20-session horizon
+roughly a sixth of the sample already sits inside a hit window. It is seeded, so
+a re-run cannot move the report. Corrections cluster and uniform placement does
+not, so it is the **floor, not the bar**: an alarm process that clustered would
+beat it for reasons unrelated to foresight.
+
+### First result (2026-08-12): the shipped rule is not distinguishable from chance
+
+Replayed over 2021-07-14 → 2026-08-12. The 200-DMA warm-up means the baseline
+only seeds on 2022-05-26, so 1056 of 1276 sessions are evaluable and 10 of the 11
+detected corrections fall inside them.
+
+| rule | kind | warned | FA/yr | median lead |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| **Quadrant alert (shipped)** | | **1/10** | **0.9** | 19d |
+| Quadrant alert, both axes high | ablation | 0/10 | 0.9 | — |
+| Warning ≥ 40, bare crossing | ablation | 3/10 | 4.8 | 20d |
+| State ≥ 50, bare crossing | ablation | 0/10 | 0.7 | — |
+| SMH below its 50-DMA | baseline | 7/10 | 6.7 | 8d |
+| VIX ≥ 20 | baseline | 4/10 | 7.2 | 9.5d |
+| Random alarms, same firing rate | null | 0.9 ± 0.8 | — | — |
+
+**P(chance ≥ 1/10) = 0.65.** Alarms scattered at random over the same sessions at
+the rule's own firing rate match or beat it two times in three. Whatever the
+score knows, this rule is not transmitting it.
+
+Three readings, in order of how much they should change:
+
+**The machinery costs more than it protects.** The bare Warning crossing catches
+3 with a 20-session lead; wrapping it in the quadrant rule drops that to 1. The
+State condition is the largest single cost — requiring both axes high catches
+nothing at all, which is what a coincident axis gating a leading one predicts.
+Hysteresis, the two-session confirmation and the shared cooldown between them
+take the rest, and the cooldown is shared across *every* quadrant change, so
+exits consume the budget that entries need. Only 5 of the 15 replayed changes are
+Warning-high entries.
+
+**The crude baselines beat everything on recall, at a price.** SMH below its
+50-DMA catches 7 of 10 — but at 6.7 false alarms a year against the shipped
+rule's 0.9. That is a 7× recall improvement for 7× the noise, so it is not a
+clean dominance and this table cannot settle it; the missing axis is what a false
+alarm actually costs, which nothing here measures. What it does settle is that
+the composite is not buying recall the 50-DMA does not already have.
+
+**The 0.9 false alarms/year is not the achievement it looks like.** A rule that
+almost never fires has few false alarms by construction. Read the two columns
+together or not at all.
+
+Recorded from an offline replay (live Alpaca + FRED, no database, breadth
+computed from the same Alpaca closes rather than the stored universe). The job in
+Admin → Jobs is the canonical path and reads breadth from the DB, so re-run it to
+confirm these figures before treating them as the record.
+
+**This is a verdict on the market channels only.** The fundamental and confluence
+rows in the same table are marked `measurable: false` and print "not measurable"
+rather than a ratio: with an empty observation series they never fire, and a 0/10
+sitting in a comparison column would read as tested-and-failed. `false` here means
+the input does not exist yet, not that the rule lost.
+
+(The figures above were also produced under a briefly-built weighted modifier and
+came back bit-identical, which is what confirmed the modifier was inert over the
+whole window — the numbers depend on the technical sensors alone either way.)
+
+**Not acted on.** Nothing in the alert path was changed on the strength of this.
+The obvious candidates — dropping the State condition from the entry test,
+separating the entry and exit cooldowns, or lowering the Warning divider — are
+threshold changes to a live alerting rule and want their own decision.
+
+### The coverage gap relocates, it does not close
+
+Dropping the fitted threshold makes the whole sample evaluable, but most of the
+extra events predate 2023-08. W3 does not exist there, so Warning renormalises to
+`(W1×45 + W2×30)/75` and the fixed 40 divider is applied to a different construct
+than it was reasoned about. The report therefore splits shipped-rule metrics at
+the credit sensor's first session and the panel states both, because replacing
+one misleading headline with a differently misleading one would be no gain.
+
+Convenient side effect: the pre-credit era *is* the "Warning without W3"
+ablation, measured on real sessions rather than simulated ones, so that ablation
+is not run separately.
+
+Alarms and events are assigned to eras by index, so an alarm days before the
+boundary matching an event days after it lands in the earlier era. With the eras
+years long and the events sparse, that costs nothing.
+
+### The fitted variant, kept for continuity
+
+The 70/30 percentile study is still computed and still reported, collapsed, with
+its `reliability` block intact — it is a genuinely different question, and it is
+what earlier revisions of this document report. Its caveats stand:
 
 **The holdout is thin.** The study detects 11 corrections across 5 years but the
-70/30 split leaves only 4 in the test period. Recall is therefore one event away
+70/30 split leaves only 4 in the test period. Recall is one event away from a
-from a materially different headline, and in practice the event that flips is
+materially different headline, and in practice the event that flips is decided by
-decided by where the frozen threshold happens to land rather than by whether the
+where the frozen threshold happens to land rather than by whether the score saw
-score saw anything. The v3 cutover run illustrates it: v3 scored 2/4 against v2's
+anything. The v3 cutover run illustrates it: v3 scored 2/4 against v2's 3/4, but
-3/4, but "v3 without the credit sensor" scores 3/4 at a *higher* threshold
+"v3 without the credit sensor" scores 3/4 at a *higher* threshold (35.5) than
-(35.5) than shipped v3 misses it at (32.3) — because the alarm rule needs a
+shipped v3 misses it at (32.3) — because the alarm rule needs a rising edge, and a
-rising edge, and a lower threshold can mean the alarm already fired outside the
+lower threshold can mean the alarm already fired outside the 20-session horizon
-20-session horizon and never reset below. Below `MIN_EVENTS_FOR_CONFIDENCE`
+and never reset below. Below `MIN_EVENTS_FOR_CONFIDENCE` holdout events the
-holdout events the report says so explicitly.
+report says so explicitly.
 
 Some events carry no information at all for comparison: in that run every
 variant caught 2026-03-06, every variant missed 2026-06-05, and every variant
 "caught" 2025-11-20 with a 1-session lead, which is coincident rather than a
-warning.
+warning. The headline recall does not currently discount those; a minimum-lead
+rule is the obvious next change and has not been made.
 
-**Sensor coverage can straddle the split.** The score renormalises over available
+**Sensor coverage straddles the split.** The score renormalises over available
 sensors, so a training window predating a sensor's history freezes the threshold
 on a different construct than the holdout is measured against. At the v3 cutover
 only 39% of training sessions had all three Warning sensors versus 100% of the
@@ -362,9 +720,22 @@ test period, because credit history begins 2023-07-25.
 Restricting the threshold to sensor-matched training sessions was tried and is
 *not* the fix: those sessions are a calm recent stretch, so the threshold drops
 from 32.3 to 22.5 and false alarms rise from 3.3 to 8.6 per year. It trades a
-coverage bias for a regime-selection bias. The honest position is that the
+coverage bias for a regime-selection bias. The honest position is that a fitted
-threshold is hypersensitive to window choice at this sample size; the report
+threshold is hypersensitive to window choice at this sample size — which is the
-states its limits rather than pretending to a precision it does not have.
+strongest argument for making the unfitted shipped rule the headline.
+
+### Considered and not done
+
+**An ETF credit proxy (HYG/IEF) to extend W3 back over the whole sample.** It
+would trade "two sensors versus three" for "proxy sensor versus real sensor" —
+still a construct straddle, but no longer flagged by the coverage split. This is
+the same objection that rejected `BAA10Y` as a percentile reference. If ever
+revisited, check the impulse correlation on the three years of real-OAS overlap
+first and report it as a sensitivity, never as the headline.
+
+**A depth sweep (5%/7%/15% corrections) for more events.** `EVENT_COOLDOWN_DAYS`
+is 40, so at shallower thresholds re-triggers inside a single decline merge or
+drop and the denominator moves for cooldown reasons rather than market ones.
 
 ## Resolved in v4 (raised 2026-08-07, shipped 2026-08-08)
 

frontend/src/components/regime/RegimeChart.tsx

@@ -2,7 +2,6 @@ import { useMemo, useState } from 'react';
 import { useQuery } from '@tanstack/react-query';
 import {
   CartesianGrid,
-  Cell,
   Line,
   LineChart,
   ReferenceArea,
@@ -19,6 +18,8 @@ import { getRegimeHistory, getRegimeMonitor } from '../../api/regime';
 import { Callout } from '../ui/Callout';
 import { SkeletonCard } from '../ui/Skeleton';
 import { formatDate } from '../../lib/format';
+import { FUNDAMENTAL_VISUAL, QUADRANT_WASH, REGIME_VISUAL } from '../../lib/regime';
+import type { EvidenceQuality, FundamentalState } from '../../lib/types';
 
 // Lazy-loaded (see RegimePage) so recharts stays in the regime-tab chunk.
 // Time and Path are two projections of one series, so they share a card and a
@@ -38,8 +39,14 @@ type RangeKey = (typeof RANGES)[number]['key'];
 /** Sessions drawn in Path view. The full series is unreadable as a path. */
 const PATH_TRAIL = 60;
 
-const STATE_COLOR = '#60a5fa';
+const STATE_COLOR = REGIME_VISUAL.state;
-const WARNING_COLOR = '#fb923c';
+const WARNING_COLOR = REGIME_VISUAL.warning;
+const FUNDAMENTAL_SYMBOL: Record<FundamentalState, string> = {
+  supportive: '▲',
+  neutral: '●',
+  adverse: '◆',
+  unknown: '○',
+};
 
 // Fall back to the shipped constants, not v2's shared 60/60, so a missing
 // quadrant_config cannot draw dividers that disagree with the alert path.
@@ -50,13 +57,19 @@ interface PathPoint {
   x: number;
   y: number;
   date: string;
+  /** The third channel as recorded that day. Colours the dot; never moves it. */
+  fundamental: FundamentalState;
+  evidence: EvidenceQuality;
+  /** Raw dated observations are interactive dots; the smoothed copy is line-only. */
+  raw: boolean;
+  recency: number;
 }
 
 /** Centered moving average to de-noise the path; today (last) kept exact. */
 function smoothTrail(points: PathPoint[], half = 2): PathPoint[] {
   const n = points.length;
   return points.map((p, i) => {
-    if (i === n - 1) return { ...p };
+    if (i === n - 1) return { ...p, raw: false };
     let sx = 0;
     let sy = 0;
     let c = 0;
@@ -65,14 +78,58 @@ function smoothTrail(points: PathPoint[], half = 2): PathPoint[] {
       sy += points[j].y;
       c += 1;
     }
-    return { x: sx / c, y: sy / c, date: p.date };
+    return { ...p, x: sx / c, y: sy / c, raw: false };
   });
 }
 
-/** Recency gradient: 0 = oldest (muted slate), 1 = newest (bright blue). */
+function FundamentalGlyph({
-function recencyColor(t: number): string {
+  cx,
-  const lerp = (a: number, b: number) => Math.round(a + (b - a) * t);
+  cy,
-  return `rgba(${lerp(71, 96)}, ${lerp(85, 165)}, ${lerp(105, 250)}, ${(0.3 + 0.7 * t).toFixed(2)})`;
+  state,
+  size,
+  opacity = 1,
+}: {
+  cx: number;
+  cy: number;
+  state: FundamentalState;
+  size: number;
+  opacity?: number;
+}) {
+  const visual = FUNDAMENTAL_VISUAL[state] ?? FUNDAMENTAL_VISUAL.unknown;
+  const common = { fill: visual.color, opacity, stroke: '#11131c', strokeWidth: 1 };
+  if (visual.glyph === 'up') {
+    return <polygon points={`${cx},${cy - size} ${cx - size},${cy + size} ${cx + size},${cy + size}`} {...common} />;
+  }
+  if (visual.glyph === 'diamond') {
+    return <polygon points={`${cx},${cy - size} ${cx - size},${cy} ${cx},${cy + size} ${cx + size},${cy}`} {...common} />;
+  }
+  if (visual.glyph === 'ring') {
+    return <circle cx={cx} cy={cy} r={size - 0.5} fill="transparent" opacity={opacity} stroke={visual.color} strokeWidth={1.5} />;
+  }
+  return <circle cx={cx} cy={cy} r={size - 0.5} {...common} />;
+}
+
+function PathPointShape({ cx = 0, cy = 0, payload }: { cx?: number; cy?: number; payload?: PathPoint }) {
+  if (!payload) return <g />;
+  return (
+    <FundamentalGlyph
+      cx={cx}
+      cy={cy}
+      state={payload.fundamental}
+      size={3.25 + payload.recency * 1.25}
+      opacity={0.58 + payload.recency * 0.42}
+    />
+  );
+}
+
+function LatestPointShape({ cx = 0, cy = 0, payload }: { cx?: number; cy?: number; payload?: PathPoint }) {
+  if (!payload) return <g />;
+  return (
+    <g>
+      <circle cx={cx} cy={cy} r={7} fill="transparent" stroke="#ffffff" strokeWidth={1.75} />
+      <FundamentalGlyph cx={cx} cy={cy} state={payload.fundamental} size={4.5} />
+    </g>
+  );
 }
 
 function SegmentedControl<T extends string>({
@@ -94,8 +151,8 @@ function SegmentedControl<T extends string>({
           type="button"
           aria-pressed={value === option}
           onClick={() => onChange(option)}
-          className={`rounded px-2 py-1 text-[11px] font-medium tabular-nums transition-colors ${
+          className={`min-h-9 rounded px-3 py-2 text-xs font-medium tabular-nums transition-colors ${
-            value === option ? 'bg-white/10 text-blue-300' : 'text-gray-500 hover:text-gray-300'
+            value === option ? 'bg-white/10 text-blue-300' : 'text-gray-400 hover:text-gray-200'
           }`}
         >
           {option}
@@ -107,14 +164,19 @@ function SegmentedControl<T extends string>({
 
 function PathTip({ active, payload }: { active?: boolean; payload?: { payload: PathPoint }[] }) {
   if (!active || !payload?.length) return null;
-  const p = payload[0].payload;
+  const p = payload.find((item) => item.payload.raw)?.payload ?? payload[0].payload;
+  const visual = FUNDAMENTAL_VISUAL[p.fundamental] ?? FUNDAMENTAL_VISUAL.unknown;
+  const evidence = p.evidence === 'unavailable' ? 'Unavailable' : `${p.evidence.replace(/_/g, ' ')} evidence`;
   return (
-    <div className="glass px-2.5 py-1.5 text-[11px]">
+    <div className="glass px-3 py-2 text-xs">
       <div className="text-gray-300">{formatDate(p.date)}</div>
       <div className="text-gray-400">
         State <span style={{ color: STATE_COLOR }}>{Math.round(p.x)}</span> · Warning{' '}
         <span style={{ color: WARNING_COLOR }}>{Math.round(p.y)}</span>
       </div>
+      <div className="mt-0.5 text-gray-400">
+        Fundamentals <span style={{ color: visual.color }}>{visual.label}</span> · {evidence}
+      </div>
     </div>
   );
 }
@@ -144,7 +206,15 @@ export default function RegimeChart() {
   }, [history.data, view, range]);
 
   const pathPoints = useMemo<PathPoint[]>(
-    () => series.map((p) => ({ x: p.state as number, y: p.warning as number, date: p.date })),
+    () => series.map((p, index, points) => ({
+      x: p.state as number,
+      y: p.warning as number,
+      date: p.date,
+      fundamental: p.fundamental_state ?? 'unknown',
+      evidence: p.evidence_quality ?? 'unavailable',
+      raw: true,
+      recency: points.length <= 1 ? 1 : index / (points.length - 1),
+    })),
     [series],
   );
   const trail = useMemo(() => (view === 'Path' ? smoothTrail(pathPoints) : []), [pathPoints, view]);
@@ -159,7 +229,7 @@ export default function RegimeChart() {
     <div className="glass p-5">
       <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center justify-between gap-3">
         <div className="flex items-center gap-3">
-          <span className="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-500">
+          <span className="text-xs uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-400">
             {view === 'Time' ? 'State & Warning over time' : `State × Warning path · last ${PATH_TRAIL} sessions`}
           </span>
           <SegmentedControl options={VIEWS} value={view} onChange={setView} label="Chart view" />
@@ -168,7 +238,7 @@ export default function RegimeChart() {
           <SegmentedControl options={RANGES.map((r) => r.key)} value={range} onChange={setRange} label="Time range" />
         ) : (
           latest && (
-            <span className="text-[11px] text-gray-500">
+            <span className="text-xs text-gray-400">
               now: State <span style={{ color: STATE_COLOR }}>{Math.round(latest.x)}</span> · Warning{' '}
               <span style={{ color: WARNING_COLOR }}>{Math.round(latest.y)}</span>
             </span>
@@ -182,14 +252,18 @@ export default function RegimeChart() {
         <Callout variant="empty">Not enough coverage-qualified history yet — it accumulates as the daily job runs.</Callout>
       ) : (
         <>
-          <div className="mt-3 h-72">
+          <div
+            className="mt-3 h-72"
+            role="img"
+            aria-label={view === 'Time' ? 'State and Warning scores over time' : 'State by Warning path with fundamental context symbols'}
+          >
             <ResponsiveContainer width="100%" height="100%">
               {view === 'Time' ? (
                 <LineChart data={series} margin={{ top: 6, right: 8, left: 0, bottom: 0 }}>
                   <CartesianGrid stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.05)" vertical={false} />
                   <XAxis
                     dataKey="date"
-                    tick={{ fill: '#6b7280', fontSize: 10 }}
+                    tick={{ fill: '#9aa0b0', fontSize: 10 }}
                     tickFormatter={(d) => formatDate(String(d))}
                     minTickGap={28}
                     tickLine={false}
@@ -200,7 +274,7 @@ export default function RegimeChart() {
                   <YAxis
                     domain={[0, 100]}
                     ticks={[0, 25, 50, 75, 100]}
-                    tick={{ fill: '#6b7280', fontSize: 10 }}
+                    tick={{ fill: '#9aa0b0', fontSize: 10 }}
                     width={34}
                     tickLine={false}
                     axisLine={false}
@@ -225,10 +299,13 @@ export default function RegimeChart() {
                 </LineChart>
               ) : (
                 <ScatterChart margin={{ top: 10, right: 16, bottom: 22, left: 0 }}>
-                  <ReferenceArea x1={0} x2={xDiv} y1={yDiv} y2={100} fill="#f59e0b" fillOpacity={0.07} stroke="none" />
+                  {/* One neutral at four opacities: denser = more axes elevated.
-                  <ReferenceArea x1={xDiv} x2={100} y1={yDiv} y2={100} fill="#f97316" fillOpacity={0.07} stroke="none" />
+                      Hue here would collide with the fundamental glyphs drawn
-                  <ReferenceArea x1={0} x2={xDiv} y1={0} y2={yDiv} fill="#10b981" fillOpacity={0.07} stroke="none" />
+                      on top of it — see QUADRANT_WASH. */}
-                  <ReferenceArea x1={xDiv} x2={100} y1={0} y2={yDiv} fill="#ef4444" fillOpacity={0.08} stroke="none" />
+                  <ReferenceArea x1={0} x2={xDiv} y1={yDiv} y2={100} fill="#ffffff" fillOpacity={QUADRANT_WASH.early_warning} stroke="none" />
+                  <ReferenceArea x1={xDiv} x2={100} y1={yDiv} y2={100} fill="#ffffff" fillOpacity={QUADRANT_WASH.active_stress} stroke="none" />
+                  <ReferenceArea x1={0} x2={xDiv} y1={0} y2={yDiv} fill="#ffffff" fillOpacity={QUADRANT_WASH.healthy} stroke="none" />
+                  <ReferenceArea x1={xDiv} x2={100} y1={0} y2={yDiv} fill="#ffffff" fillOpacity={QUADRANT_WASH.stabilizing} stroke="none" />
                   <CartesianGrid stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.04)" />
                   <ReferenceLine x={xDiv} stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.12)" />
                   <ReferenceLine y={yDiv} stroke="rgba(255,255,255,0.12)" />
@@ -237,36 +314,37 @@ export default function RegimeChart() {
                     dataKey="x"
                     domain={[0, 100]}
                     ticks={[0, 20, 40, 60, 80, 100]}
-                    tick={{ fill: '#6b7280', fontSize: 10 }}
+                    tick={{ fill: '#9aa0b0', fontSize: 10 }}
                     tickLine={false}
                     axisLine={{ stroke: 'rgba(255,255,255,0.08)' }}
-                    label={{ value: 'State →', position: 'insideBottom', offset: -12, fill: '#6b7280', fontSize: 10 }}
+                    label={{ value: 'State →', position: 'insideBottom', offset: -12, fill: '#9aa0b0', fontSize: 10 }}
                   />
                   <YAxis
                     type="number"
                     dataKey="y"
                     domain={[0, 100]}
                     ticks={[0, 20, 40, 60, 80, 100]}
-                    tick={{ fill: '#6b7280', fontSize: 10 }}
+                    tick={{ fill: '#9aa0b0', fontSize: 10 }}
                     width={30}
                     tickLine={false}
                     axisLine={false}
-                    label={{ value: 'Warning', angle: -90, position: 'insideLeft', fill: '#6b7280', fontSize: 10 }}
+                    label={{ value: 'Warning', angle: -90, position: 'insideLeft', fill: '#9aa0b0', fontSize: 10 }}
                   />
-                  <ZAxis range={[13, 13]} />
+                  <ZAxis range={[18, 18]} />
                   <Tooltip cursor={{ strokeDasharray: '3 3', stroke: 'rgba(255,255,255,0.2)' }} content={<PathTip />} />
-                  <Scatter data={trail} line={{ stroke: 'rgba(96,165,250,0.18)', strokeWidth: 1.5 }} isAnimationActive={false}>
+                  <Scatter
-                    {trail.map((_, i) => (
+                    data={trail}
-                      <Cell key={i} fill={recencyColor(trail.length <= 1 ? 1 : i / (trail.length - 1))} />
+                    line={{ stroke: 'rgba(255,255,255,0.18)', strokeWidth: 1.5 }}
-                    ))}
+                    shape={(props: { cx?: number; cy?: number }) => <circle cx={props.cx} cy={props.cy} r={0} />}
-                  </Scatter>
+                    tooltipType="none"
+                    isAnimationActive={false}
+                  />
+                  <Scatter data={pathPoints} shape={<PathPointShape />} isAnimationActive={false} />
                   {latest && (
                     <Scatter
                       data={[latest]}
                       isAnimationActive={false}
-                      shape={(props: { cx?: number; cy?: number }) => (
+                      shape={<LatestPointShape />}
-                        <circle cx={props.cx} cy={props.cy} r={6} fill="#ffffff" stroke={STATE_COLOR} strokeWidth={2} />
-                      )}
                     />
                   )}
                 </ScatterChart>
@@ -275,7 +353,7 @@ export default function RegimeChart() {
           </div>
 
           {view === 'Time' ? (
-            <div className="mt-2 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-4 text-[11px] text-gray-400">
+            <div className="mt-2 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-4 text-xs text-gray-400">
               <span className="flex items-center gap-1.5">
                 <span className="inline-block h-2 w-3 rounded-sm" style={{ background: STATE_COLOR }} />
                 State
@@ -284,20 +362,43 @@ export default function RegimeChart() {
                 <span className="inline-block h-2 w-3 rounded-sm" style={{ background: WARNING_COLOR }} />
                 Warning
               </span>
-              <span className="text-gray-600">dashed = each axis's elevated threshold ({xDiv} / {yDiv})</span>
+              <span className="text-gray-400">dashed = each axis's elevated threshold ({xDiv} / {yDiv})</span>
             </div>
           ) : (
-            <div className="mt-2 grid grid-cols-1 gap-x-4 gap-y-1 text-[11px] text-gray-500 sm:grid-cols-2">
+            <div className="mt-2 grid grid-cols-1 gap-x-4 gap-y-1 text-xs text-gray-400 sm:grid-cols-2">
-              <span><span className="text-amber-400">Early warning</span> — calm, fragility rising</span>
+              {/* Swatches, not coloured words: the quadrant names used the
-              <span><span className="text-orange-400">Active stress</span> — damaged and deteriorating</span>
+                  fundamental channel's colours, so "Stabilizing" was rendered in
-              <span><span className="text-emerald-400">Healthy</span> — calm, broadly supported</span>
+                  the adverse hue while meaning damage receding. */}
-              <span><span className="text-red-400">Stabilizing</span> — damage remains, warning lower</span>
+              {([
-              <span className="text-gray-600 sm:col-span-2">White dot = today; trail brightens toward the present, smoothed.</span>
+                ['active_stress', 'Active stress', 'damaged and deteriorating'],
+                ['early_warning', 'Early warning', 'calm, fragility rising'],
+                ['stabilizing', 'Stabilizing', 'damage remains, warning lower'],
+                ['healthy', 'Healthy', 'calm, broadly supported'],
+              ] as const).map(([key, name, gloss]) => (
+                <span key={key} className="flex items-center gap-1.5">
+                  <span
+                    aria-hidden="true"
+                    className="inline-block h-3 w-3 shrink-0 rounded-sm border border-white/10"
+                    style={{ background: `rgba(255,255,255,${QUADRANT_WASH[key] * 4})` }}
+                  />
+                  <span className="text-gray-300">{name}</span> — {gloss}
+                </span>
+              ))}
+              <span className="text-gray-400 sm:col-span-2">Raw dated points grow toward today; the connecting line is smoothed. White ring = today.</span>
+              <span className="mt-1 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-3 gap-y-1 text-gray-400 sm:col-span-2">
+                <span>symbol + colour = fundamentals:</span>
+                {(['supportive', 'neutral', 'adverse', 'unknown'] as const).map((state) => (
+                  <span key={state} className="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5">
+                    <span aria-hidden="true" style={{ color: FUNDAMENTAL_VISUAL[state].color }}>{FUNDAMENTAL_SYMBOL[state]}</span>
+                    {FUNDAMENTAL_VISUAL[state].label}
+                  </span>
+                ))}
+              </span>
             </div>
           )}
 
           {crossesFreeze && (
-            <p className="mt-2 text-[11px] text-gray-600">
+            <p className="mt-2 text-xs text-gray-400">
               History before {basketAsOf} is reconstructed against today's basket — retrospective, not a live record.
             </p>
           )}

frontend/src/components/ui/Disclosure.tsx

@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ interface DisclosureProps {
 export function Disclosure({ summary, children }: DisclosureProps) {
   return (
     <details className="glass-sm group">
-      <summary className="flex cursor-pointer select-none items-center gap-2 px-4 py-2.5 text-xs font-medium text-gray-400 transition-colors hover:text-gray-200 [&::-webkit-details-marker]:hidden">
+      <summary className="flex min-h-11 cursor-pointer select-none items-center gap-2 px-4 py-2.5 text-xs font-medium text-gray-400 transition-colors hover:text-gray-200 [&::-webkit-details-marker]:hidden">
         <span className="inline-block transition-transform duration-200 group-open:rotate-90">▸</span>
         {summary}
       </summary>

frontend/src/lib/regime.ts

@@ -1,4 +1,68 @@
-import type { MarketRegime } from './types';
+import type { FundamentalState, MarketRegime } from './types';
+
+/** One visual vocabulary for the three-channel regime monitor. Keep chart SVG
+ * literals and DOM text in sync rather than letting Tailwind aliases and
+ * hard-coded colours describe the same state differently.
+ *
+ * **Hue identifies the channel, and only the channel.** Two collisions made
+ * that false and both are fixed here:
+ *
+ * - `supportive` was literally `state`, so teal meant "the State score" in the
+ *   Time view and "fundamentals supportive" in the Path view of the same card.
+ * - `adverse` sat 19 degrees from `warning`, which is inside deuteranope
+ *   confusion range for two channels that appear on adjacent tooltip lines.
+ *
+ * The market pair now sits at 27/190 degrees and the fundamental pair at
+ * 0/158, so every *cross-channel* pair is at least 27 degrees apart. All six
+ * clear 4.5:1 against `--surface`. Fundamentals additionally carry a glyph, so
+ * colour is never the sole encoding for the categorical channel.
+ *
+ * `neutral` and `unknown` are deliberately the same hue: they are two states of
+ * one channel, both meaning "no directional signal", separated by lightness
+ * (7.1:1 vs 5.4:1) and by glyph (filled circle vs ring). Do not "fix" their
+ * proximity by giving `unknown` a hue — that would make an absence of evidence
+ * look like a reading.
+ *
+ * These deliberately do *not* reuse `--up-text`/`--down-text`: those are the
+ * app's directional tokens, and `--up-text` is already this chart's State
+ * colour, which is how the first collision happened.
+ */
+export const REGIME_VISUAL = {
+  // Market channels — continuous scores, drawn as lines and positions.
+  state: '#6ec9db',
+  warning: '#fb923c',
+  // Fundamental channel — categorical, drawn as glyphs.
+  supportive: '#34d399',
+  neutral: '#9aa0b0',
+  adverse: '#f87171',
+  unknown: '#848a9c',
+} as const;
+
+/** Market quadrant severity as an opacity ramp on one neutral — never a hue.
+ *
+ * The quadrants are a State x Warning construct, so colouring them borrowed
+ * hues that already meant something else: "Healthy" was painted in the
+ * fundamental supportive colour and "Stabilizing" in the adverse one, which put
+ * an adverse glyph on an adverse-coloured background while meaning roughly the
+ * opposite (damage receding). Opacity carries how many axes are elevated, the
+ * position and labels carry which, and hue stays free to mean channel.
+ */
+export const QUADRANT_WASH = {
+  healthy: 0.015,
+  early_warning: 0.05,
+  stabilizing: 0.05,
+  active_stress: 0.085,
+} as const;
+
+export const FUNDAMENTAL_VISUAL: Record<
+  FundamentalState,
+  { label: string; color: string; glyph: 'up' | 'circle' | 'diamond' | 'ring' }
+> = {
+  supportive: { label: 'Supportive', color: REGIME_VISUAL.supportive, glyph: 'up' },
+  neutral: { label: 'Neutral', color: REGIME_VISUAL.neutral, glyph: 'circle' },
+  adverse: { label: 'Adverse', color: REGIME_VISUAL.adverse, glyph: 'diamond' },
+  unknown: { label: 'Unknown', color: REGIME_VISUAL.unknown, glyph: 'ring' },
+};
 
 export function regimeDot(label: MarketRegime['label']): string {
   switch (label) {

frontend/src/lib/types.ts

@@ -509,9 +509,24 @@ export interface RegimeReading {
   trend?: { delta_7: number | null; delta_30: number | null };
 }
 
-/** Qualitative capex / earnings-reaction context. Not part of either score. */
+export type FundamentalState = 'supportive' | 'neutral' | 'adverse' | 'unknown';
-export interface RegimeFundamentalOverlay {
+export type EvidenceQuality = 'complete' | 'partial' | 'stale' | 'manual' | 'unavailable';
+
+/** The third channel: capex / earnings-reaction context, read alongside State
+ *  and Warning by confluence. Deliberately never a term in either score — see
+ *  the methodology doc on why no fusion weight is measurable yet. */
+export interface RegimeFundamentalContext {
+  /** Derived from the stored facts by fixed rules, not by an LLM's judgement. */
+  state: FundamentalState;
+  evidence_quality: EvidenceQuality;
+  capex_signal: FundamentalState;
+  reaction_signal: FundamentalState;
+  /** Timing only: there is an effective, non-stale record to display. */
   available: boolean;
+  /** Content too: it is available *and* actually determined something. A
+   *  collected observation whose extraction failed is available but not usable,
+   *  and only `usable` may confirm anything or count as study exposure. */
+  usable: boolean;
   pending: boolean;
   stale: boolean;
   effective_date: string | null;
@@ -524,7 +539,7 @@ export interface RegimeFundamentalOverlay {
   source: string | null;
   fetched_at: string | null;
   /** Whether anything was actually collected. Live reading only; the snapshot's
-   *  point-in-time overlay omits it. */
+   *  point-in-time record omits it. */
   observed?: boolean;
   observed_in_snapshot?: boolean;
 }
@@ -533,6 +548,11 @@ export interface RegimeHistoryPoint {
   date: string;
   state: number | null;
   warning: number | null;
+  /** The fundamental channel as recorded that day — drives the Path dot colour.
+   *  Rows written before the channel existed read as "unknown", which is correct:
+   *  nothing was observed then either. */
+  fundamental_state: FundamentalState;
+  evidence_quality: EvidenceQuality;
   state_coverage: number | null;
   warning_coverage: number | null;
   basket_hash: string | null;
@@ -545,10 +565,12 @@ export interface RegimeMonitor {
   date?: string;
   state?: RegimeReading;
   warning?: RegimeReading;
-  /** Point-in-time overlay recorded in the snapshot. */
+  /** The channel as recorded in the snapshot — point-in-time, effective-date gated. */
-  fundamental_overlay?: RegimeFundamentalOverlay;
+  fundamental_context?: RegimeFundamentalContext;
-  /** Current observation, even when it is not effective until the next session. */
+  /** What we know right now, even when it is not effective until the next
-  fundamental_context?: RegimeFundamentalOverlay;
+   *  session. Separate from the above so a just-collected observation cannot
+   *  look as though it had been backdated into the record. */
+  fundamental_live?: RegimeFundamentalContext;
   inputs?: {
     vix: number | null;
     vix_date: string | null;
@@ -596,7 +618,7 @@ export interface RegimeFundamentals {
 }
 
 export type CapexState = 'raising' | 'holding' | 'cutting' | 'unknown';
-export type GoodNewsReaction = 'yes' | 'no' | 'mixed';
+export type GoodNewsReaction = 'yes' | 'no' | 'mixed' | 'unknown';
 
 export interface RegimeFundamentalsUpdate {
   capex?: Record<string, CapexState>;
@@ -611,9 +633,22 @@ export interface RegimeConfig {
 }
 
 // Event study — measured lead time of early-warning indicators vs. drawdowns
+export interface EventStudyMetrics {
+  events: number;
+  events_warned: number;
+  events_missed: number;
+  alarm_episodes: number;
+  false_alarms: number;
+  /** null when the rule had no eligible sessions — undefined, not zero. */
+  false_alarms_per_year: number | null;
+  median_lead_days: number | null;
+}
+
 export interface EventStudyReport {
   available: boolean;
   reason?: string;
+  /** Report shape, independent of methodology. Mismatched reports are discarded. */
+  schema?: number;
   methodology?: string;
   generated_at?: string;
   evaluation?: 'exploratory' | 'holdout';
@@ -624,14 +659,11 @@ export interface EventStudyReport {
     event_threshold_pct: number;
     event_cooldown_days: number;
     horizon_days: number;
-    train_fraction: number;
-    warn_percentile: number;
-    warn_threshold: number;
     basket_hash: string;
     basket_asof: string;
     credit_sensor_from?: string | null;
   };
-  /** How far the headline metrics can be trusted. See _reliability(). */
+  /** How far the *fitted* variant's metrics can be trusted. See _reliability(). */
   reliability?: {
     events_detected: number;
     events_in_holdout: number;
@@ -645,21 +677,75 @@ export interface EventStudyReport {
   sample?: {
     start: string;
     end: string;
-    train_end: string;
+    /** Where the quadrant baseline seeds — not a holdout boundary. */
-    test_start: string;
+    evaluable_from: string;
     sessions: number;
-    holdout_sessions: number;
+    evaluable_sessions: number;
+    events_detected: number;
+    events_evaluable: number;
   };
-  metrics?: {
+  /** The quadrant-change rule that actually reaches Telegram. The headline. */
+  shipped?: {
+    rule: {
+      state_divider: number;
+      warning_divider: number;
+      margin: number;
+      confirm_sessions: number;
+      cooldown_days: number;
+      entry: string;
+    };
+    metrics: EventStudyMetrics;
+    events: { date: string; warned: boolean; lead_days: number | null }[];
+    quadrant_changes: number;
+    /** Debugging payload: every change the replay would have alerted on. Not rendered. */
+    fires: { index: number; date: string; from: string; to: string; state: number; warning: number }[];
+    /** Credit history starts partway through, so Warning is W1+W2 before it. */
+    by_era?: {
+      credit_from: string;
+      pre_credit: EventStudyMetrics & { label: string; start: string; end: string; sessions: number };
+      full_coverage: EventStudyMetrics & { label: string; start: string; end: string; sessions: number };
+    } | null;
+  };
+  /** The fundamental channel's actual exposure — its rows are scored on this
+   *  window, not on the market rows' full sample. */
+  fundamental_coverage?: {
+    observations: number;
+    /** Sessions with usable (observed, effective, non-stale) context. */
+    sessions_eligible: number;
+    evaluable_sessions: number;
+    /** Corrections whose warning horizon had usable context. */
+    events_covered: number;
+    events_evaluable: number;
+    minimum_events: number;
+    /** False until enough corrections are covered: the fundamental rows are
+     *  untested, not failed, and must not render as a 0/N result. */
+    measurable: boolean;
+  };
+  /** Ablations, external baselines, and the fundamental channel — all on fixed
+   *  (unfitted) rules, so every row is scored on the same events. */
+  comparison?: (EventStudyMetrics & {
+    id: string;
+    label: string;
+    kind: 'ablation' | 'baseline' | 'fundamental';
+    note: string;
+    measurable: boolean;
+  })[];
+  null_model?: {
+    draws: number;
+    alarms_per_draw: number;
     events: number;
-    events_warned: number;
+    mean_warned: number;
-    events_missed: number;
+    sd_warned: number;
-    alarm_episodes: number;
+    observed_warned: number;
-    false_alarms: number;
+    p_at_least_observed: number;
-    false_alarms_per_year: number;
+  } | null;
-    median_lead_days: number | null;
+  /** The original 70/30 fitted-threshold study, kept for continuity. */
+  fitted?: {
+    params: { train_fraction: number; warn_percentile: number; warn_threshold: number };
+    sample: { train_end: string; test_start: string; holdout_sessions: number };
+    metrics: EventStudyMetrics;
+    events: { date: string; warned: boolean; lead_days: number | null }[];
   };
-  events?: { date: string; warned: boolean; lead_days: number | null }[];
   recent_breadth?: { date: string; breadth: number; warning: number | null }[];
 }
 

frontend/src/pages/RegimePage.tsx

@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ import { Disclosure } from '../components/ui/Disclosure';
 import { Badge } from '../components/ui/Badge';
 import { SkeletonCard, SkeletonTable } from '../components/ui/Skeleton';
 import { useAuthStore } from '../stores/authStore';
+import { FUNDAMENTAL_VISUAL } from '../lib/regime';
 import {
   getEventStudy,
   getRegimeConfig,
@@ -17,11 +18,13 @@ import {
 } from '../api/regime';
 import type {
   CapexState,
+  FundamentalState,
+  EventStudyMetrics,
   EventStudyReport,
   GoodNewsReaction,
   RegimeBand,
   RegimeConfig,
-  RegimeFundamentalOverlay,
+  RegimeFundamentalContext,
   RegimeFundamentals,
   RegimeFundamentalsUpdate,
   RegimeMonitor,
@@ -39,7 +42,7 @@ const BAND_STYLES: Record<RegimeBand, { text: string; bar: string; ring: string;
 
 function TrendChip({ label, delta }: { label: string; delta: number | null | undefined }) {
   if (delta == null) {
-    return <span className="rounded-lg bg-white/[0.04] px-2.5 py-1 text-xs text-gray-500">{label}: n/a</span>;
+    return <span className="rounded-lg bg-white/[0.04] px-2.5 py-1 text-xs text-gray-400">{label}: n/a</span>;
   }
   const color = delta === 0 ? 'text-gray-400' : delta > 0 ? 'text-red-400' : 'text-emerald-400';
   const arrow = delta === 0 ? '→' : delta > 0 ? '↑' : '↓';
@@ -68,21 +71,21 @@ function ScoreGauge({
   // shared set would mislabel one of them. Render none rather than wrong ones.
   const ticks = bands ? [bands.watch, bands.elevated, bands.breaking] : [];
   return (
-    <div className={`glass border p-6 ${style?.ring ?? 'border-white/[0.06]'}`}>
+    <div className={`glass h-full border p-5 ${style?.ring ?? 'border-white/[0.06]'}`}>
       <div className="flex flex-wrap items-end justify-between gap-3">
         <div>
-          <div className="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-500">{label}</div>
+          <div className="text-xs uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-400">{label}</div>
           <div className="mt-1 flex items-baseline gap-2">
-            <span className={`font-display text-6xl font-bold ${style?.text ?? 'text-gray-500'}`}>
+            <span className={`font-display text-5xl font-bold ${style?.text ?? 'text-gray-500'}`}>
               {score == null ? '—' : Math.round(score)}
             </span>
-            {score != null && <span className="text-sm text-gray-500">/ 100</span>}
+            {score != null && <span className="text-sm text-gray-400">/ 100</span>}
           </div>
           <div className="mt-1 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2">
             <span className={`text-sm font-medium ${style?.text ?? 'text-gray-500'}`}>
               {style?.label ?? 'Incomplete'}
             </span>
-            <span className="text-xs text-gray-600">coverage {Math.round(reading?.coverage ?? 0)}%</span>
+            <span className="text-xs text-gray-400">coverage {Math.round(reading?.coverage ?? 0)}%</span>
           </div>
         </div>
         <div className="flex gap-2">
@@ -102,7 +105,7 @@ function ScoreGauge({
             />
           </div>
           {/* Thresholds come from the reading: the two axes no longer share them. */}
-          <div className="relative mt-1.5 h-4 text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-600">
+          <div className="relative mt-1.5 h-4 text-xs uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-400">
             <span className="absolute left-0">0</span>
             {ticks.map((tick) => (
               <span key={tick} className="absolute -translate-x-1/2 num" style={{ left: `${tick}%` }}>
@@ -113,86 +116,153 @@ function ScoreGauge({
           </div>
         </>
       )}
-      <p className="mt-4 text-xs text-gray-500">{footnote}</p>
+      <p className="mt-4 text-xs leading-relaxed text-gray-400">{footnote}</p>
     </div>
   );
 }
 
-const CAPEX_TONE: Record<CapexState, string> = {
+/** Mirrors `_capex_signal`: holding is the neutral case, so it takes the neutral
-  raising: 'text-emerald-400',
+ *  colour rather than an amber that reads as a third severity and sits close to
-  holding: 'text-amber-400',
+ *  the Warning channel's orange. */
-  cutting: 'text-red-400',
+const CAPEX_COLOR: Record<CapexState, string> = {
-  unknown: 'text-gray-500',
+  raising: FUNDAMENTAL_VISUAL.supportive.color,
+  holding: FUNDAMENTAL_VISUAL.neutral.color,
+  cutting: FUNDAMENTAL_VISUAL.adverse.color,
+  unknown: FUNDAMENTAL_VISUAL.unknown.color,
 };
 
-const OVERLAY_TITLE = 'Fundamental overlay · context, not scored';
+function sentenceCase(value: string): string {
-
+  const text = value.replace(/_/g, ' ');
-function FundamentalOverlayCard({ overlay }: { overlay: RegimeFundamentalOverlay }) {
+  return text.charAt(0).toUpperCase() + text.slice(1);
-  const capex = overlay.capex ?? {};
-  const reaction = overlay.good_news_stock_down;
-
-  // Nothing collected: the stored default is "unknown" for every hyperscaler
-  // and "mixed" for the reaction, which are placeholders, not a reading.
-  if (overlay.observed === false) {
-    return (
-      <div className="glass border border-white/[0.06] p-5">
-        <div className="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-500">{OVERLAY_TITLE}</div>
-        <p className="mt-3 text-xs text-gray-500">
-          No observation collected yet. An admin can collect one under Admin · Monitor settings. It is
-          context only — it never enters State or Warning.
-        </p>
-      </div>
-    );
 }
 
+function reactionReading(reaction: GoodNewsReaction | null): { label: string; color: string } {
+  switch (reaction) {
+    case 'yes':
+      return { label: 'Yes · good news sold', color: FUNDAMENTAL_VISUAL.adverse.color };
+    case 'no':
+      return { label: 'No · ordinary reactions', color: FUNDAMENTAL_VISUAL.supportive.color };
+    case 'mixed':
+      return { label: 'Mixed · no clear pattern', color: FUNDAMENTAL_VISUAL.neutral.color };
+    default:
+      return { label: 'Unknown · not observed', color: FUNDAMENTAL_VISUAL.unknown.color };
+  }
+}
+
+function FundamentalSummaryCard({ overlay }: { overlay: RegimeFundamentalContext }) {
+  const tone = FUNDAMENTAL_VISUAL[overlay.state] ?? FUNDAMENTAL_VISUAL.unknown;
+  const observed = overlay.observed ?? Boolean(overlay.fetched_at);
+  const status = !observed
+    ? 'No usable observation. This channel remains Unknown.'
+    : overlay.pending
+      ? `Collected now; enters the point-in-time record ${overlay.effective_date ?? 'next session'}.`
+      : overlay.stale
+        ? 'The last state is retained for context, but stale evidence cannot confirm alerts.'
+        : !overlay.usable
+          ? 'An observation was collected, but no signal could be determined.'
+          : null;
+
   return (
-    <div className="glass border border-white/[0.06] p-5">
+    <div className="glass h-full border p-5" style={{ borderColor: `${tone.color}33` }}>
-      <div className="flex flex-wrap items-baseline justify-between gap-2">
+      <div className="flex flex-wrap items-start justify-between gap-2">
-        <div className="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-500">{OVERLAY_TITLE}</div>
+        <div className="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-400">Fundamentals · context</div>
-        <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2 text-[11px] text-gray-500">
+        <div className="flex flex-wrap gap-1.5">
-          {overlay.source && <span>{overlay.source}</span>}
-          {/* When pending, the line below is the single carrier of this date. */}
-          {overlay.effective_date && !overlay.pending && <span>· effective {overlay.effective_date}</span>}
           {overlay.pending && <Badge label="pending" variant="manual" />}
           {overlay.stale && <Badge label="stale" variant="manual" />}
         </div>
       </div>
 
-      {/* A pending observation is still shown — it is the freshest read we
+      <div className="mt-2 flex flex-wrap items-baseline gap-3">
-          have, and nothing here is scored. The date says when the stored
+        <span className="font-display text-4xl font-bold" style={{ color: tone.color }}>{tone.label}</span>
-          point-in-time record picks it up. */}
+        <span className="rounded-lg bg-white/[0.04] px-2.5 py-1 text-xs text-gray-300">
-      {overlay.pending && (
+          {sentenceCase(overlay.evidence_quality)} evidence
-        <p className="mt-3 text-xs text-amber-400/90">
+        </span>
-          Shown as collected. The point-in-time record picks it up{' '}
+      </div>
-          {overlay.effective_date ?? 'next session'} — observations are never backdated.
+
+      <div className="mt-4 grid grid-cols-2 gap-2 text-xs">
+        <div className="rounded-lg bg-white/[0.025] px-3 py-2">
+          <div className="text-gray-400">Capex</div>
+          <div className="mt-0.5 font-medium" style={{ color: FUNDAMENTAL_VISUAL[overlay.capex_signal].color }}>
+            {sentenceCase(overlay.capex_signal)}
+          </div>
+        </div>
+        <div className="rounded-lg bg-white/[0.025] px-3 py-2">
+          <div className="text-gray-400">Reaction</div>
+          <div className="mt-0.5 font-medium" style={{ color: FUNDAMENTAL_VISUAL[overlay.reaction_signal].color }}>
+            {sentenceCase(overlay.reaction_signal)}
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      </div>
+
+      {status && <p className="mt-3 text-xs leading-relaxed text-gray-400">{status}</p>}
+      {(overlay.source || overlay.effective_date) && (
+        <p className="mt-3 text-[11px] text-gray-400">
+          {overlay.source ?? 'stored observation'}
+          {overlay.effective_date && ` · effective ${overlay.effective_date}`}
         </p>
       )}
-      <div className="mt-4 grid gap-4 sm:grid-cols-2">
-        <div>
-          <div className="mb-2 flex items-baseline justify-between text-xs">
-            <span className="font-medium text-gray-300">Hyperscaler capex guidance</span>
-            <span className="num text-gray-500">{overlay.capex_stress ?? 'n/a'}</span>
     </div>
-          <div className="space-y-1">
+  );
+}
+
+function FundamentalEvidence({ overlay }: { overlay: RegimeFundamentalContext }) {
+  const observed = overlay.observed ?? Boolean(overlay.fetched_at);
+  if (!observed) return null;
+  const capex = overlay.capex ?? {};
+  const reaction = reactionReading(overlay.good_news_stock_down);
+
+  return (
+    <Disclosure summary="Fundamental evidence · capex and earnings reaction">
+      <div className="grid gap-5 pt-1 sm:grid-cols-2">
+        <div>
+          <div className="mb-2 text-xs font-medium text-gray-200">Hyperscaler capex guidance</div>
+          {Object.keys(capex).length === 0 ? (
+            <p className="text-xs text-gray-400">No company-level observation.</p>
+          ) : (
+            <div className="space-y-1.5">
               {Object.entries(capex).map(([symbol, state]) => (
                 <div key={symbol} className="flex items-center justify-between text-xs">
-                <span className="font-mono text-gray-400">{symbol}</span>
+                  <span className="font-mono text-gray-300">{symbol}</span>
-                <span className={CAPEX_TONE[state] ?? 'text-gray-500'}>{state}</span>
+                  <span className="font-medium" style={{ color: CAPEX_COLOR[state] }}>{sentenceCase(state)}</span>
                 </div>
               ))}
             </div>
+          )}
         </div>
         <div>
-          <div className="mb-2 flex items-baseline justify-between text-xs">
+          <div className="mb-2 text-xs font-medium text-gray-200">Good news, stock down</div>
-            <span className="font-medium text-gray-300">Good news, stock down</span>
+          <div className="text-sm font-medium" style={{ color: reaction.color }}>{reaction.label}</div>
-            <span className="num text-gray-500">{overlay.earnings_stress ?? 'n/a'}</span>
+          <p className="mt-2 text-xs text-gray-400">
-          </div>
+            Derived context: capex {overlay.capex_signal} · reaction {overlay.reaction_signal}.
-          <div className={`text-sm font-medium ${reaction === 'yes' ? 'text-red-400' : reaction === 'no' ? 'text-emerald-400' : 'text-gray-500'}`}>
+          </p>
-            {reaction === 'yes' ? 'Yes — beats sold into' : reaction === 'no' ? 'No — ordinary reactions' : 'Mixed'}
         </div>
       </div>
+      {overlay.reasoning && (
+        <details className="mt-4 border-t border-white/[0.06] pt-3">
+          <summary className="cursor-pointer text-xs font-medium text-gray-400 hover:text-gray-200">
+            Source reasoning
+          </summary>
+          <p className="mt-2 text-xs leading-relaxed text-gray-300">{overlay.reasoning}</p>
+        </details>
+      )}
+    </Disclosure>
+  );
+}
+
+function ConfluenceStrip({ warning, context }: { warning: RegimeReading; context?: RegimeFundamentalContext }) {
+  const warningElevated = warning.band === 'elevated' || warning.band === 'breaking';
+  if (!warningElevated || !context?.usable || context.state !== 'adverse') return null;
+
+  return (
+    <div className="glass-sm relative overflow-hidden px-4 py-3" role="status">
+      <span className="absolute inset-y-0 left-0 w-1 bg-gradient-to-b from-orange-400 to-red-400" aria-hidden="true" />
+      <div className="flex flex-wrap items-baseline gap-x-3 gap-y-1 pl-1">
+        <span className="text-xs font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider text-orange-300">Confluence active</span>
+        <span className="text-sm text-gray-200">
+          Warning is {warning.band}; point-in-time fundamentals are adverse with {context.evidence_quality} evidence.
+        </span>
+        <span className="text-xs text-gray-400">Condition only · never a combined score</span>
       </div>
-      {overlay.reasoning && <p className="mt-4 text-xs leading-relaxed text-gray-400">{overlay.reasoning}</p>}
     </div>
   );
 }
@@ -209,7 +279,7 @@ function PillarTable({ state, warning }: { state: RegimeReading; warning: Regime
       <div className="overflow-x-auto rounded-lg border border-white/[0.06]">
         <table className="w-full text-sm">
           <thead>
-            <tr className="border-b border-white/[0.06] text-left text-xs uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-500">
+            <tr className="border-b border-white/[0.06] text-left text-xs uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-400">
               <th className="px-4 py-3 font-medium">Pillar / sensor</th>
               <th className="px-4 py-3 text-right font-medium">Score</th>
               <th className="px-4 py-3 text-right font-medium">Weight</th>
@@ -221,7 +291,7 @@ function PillarTable({ state, warning }: { state: RegimeReading; warning: Regime
               <tr className="border-b border-white/[0.06] bg-white/[0.02]">
                 <td colSpan={4} className="px-4 py-2 text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-400">
                   {title}
-                  <span className="ml-2 normal-case tracking-normal text-gray-600">
+                  <span className="ml-2 normal-case tracking-normal text-gray-400">
                     {reading.score ?? '—'} · {Math.round(reading.coverage)}% coverage
                   </span>
                 </td>
@@ -232,8 +302,8 @@ function PillarTable({ state, warning }: { state: RegimeReading; warning: Regime
                     <div className="font-medium text-gray-200">{pillar.label}</div>
                     <div className="mt-1 space-y-0.5">
                       {pillar.sensors.map((sensor) => (
-                        <div key={sensor.id} className="text-xs text-gray-500">
+                        <div key={sensor.id} className="text-xs text-gray-400">
-                          <span className="font-mono text-gray-600">{sensor.id}</span> {sensor.label}:{' '}
+                          <span className="font-mono text-gray-400">{sensor.id}</span> {sensor.label}:{' '}
                           <span className="num text-gray-400">{sensor.score == null ? 'n/a' : sensor.score}</span>
                         </div>
                       ))}
@@ -256,7 +326,7 @@ function PillarTable({ state, warning }: { state: RegimeReading; warning: Regime
 
 function MetaChip({ label, value, title }: { label: string; value: ReactNode; title?: string }) {
   return (
-    <span className="rounded-lg bg-white/[0.03] px-2.5 py-1 text-[11px] text-gray-500" title={title}>
+    <span className="rounded-lg bg-white/[0.03] px-2.5 py-1 text-xs text-gray-400" title={title}>
       {label} <span className="num text-gray-400">{value}</span>
     </span>
   );
@@ -288,56 +358,273 @@ function MetaStrip({ data }: { data: RegimeMonitor }) {
   );
 }
 
-function EventStudyBody({ report }: { report: EventStudyReport }) {
+function StatTiles({ metrics }: { metrics: EventStudyMetrics }) {
-  const metrics = report.metrics;
   return (
-    <div className="space-y-4">
-      <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2">
-        <Badge label={report.evaluation ?? 'exploratory'} variant={report.evaluation === 'holdout' ? 'auto' : 'manual'} />
-        {report.generated_at && <span className="text-xs text-gray-500">generated {new Date(report.generated_at).toLocaleDateString()}</span>}
-        {report.sample && <span className="text-xs text-gray-500">test {report.sample.test_start} → {report.sample.end}</span>}
-      </div>
-      <p className="text-sm leading-relaxed text-gray-300">{report.summary}</p>
-      {metrics && (
     <div className="grid grid-cols-2 gap-2 sm:grid-cols-4">
       {[
         ['Warned', `${metrics.events_warned}/${metrics.events}`],
         ['Missed', metrics.events_missed],
-            ['False alarms/year', metrics.false_alarms_per_year.toFixed(1)],
+        ['False alarms/year', metrics.false_alarms_per_year?.toFixed(1) ?? '—'],
         ['Median lead', metrics.median_lead_days == null ? '—' : `${metrics.median_lead_days}d`],
       ].map(([label, value]) => (
         <div key={String(label)} className="rounded-lg border border-white/[0.06] bg-white/[0.02] px-3 py-2">
-              <div className="text-[11px] text-gray-500">{label}</div>
+          <div className="text-xs text-gray-400">{label}</div>
           <div className="mt-0.5 text-lg font-semibold text-gray-200">{value}</div>
         </div>
       ))}
     </div>
-      )}
+  );
-      {report.events && report.events.length > 0 && (
+}
+
+function EventTable({ events }: { events: { date: string; warned: boolean; lead_days: number | null }[] }) {
+  return (
     <div className="overflow-x-auto rounded-lg border border-white/[0.06]">
       <table className="w-full text-xs">
-            <thead><tr className="border-b border-white/[0.06] text-left text-gray-500">
+        <thead><tr className="border-b border-white/[0.06] text-left text-gray-400">
           <th className="px-3 py-2 font-medium">Correction</th>
           <th className="px-3 py-2 text-right font-medium">Warned</th>
           <th className="px-3 py-2 text-right font-medium">Lead</th>
         </tr></thead>
-            <tbody>{report.events.map((event) => (
+        <tbody>{events.map((event) => (
           <tr key={event.date} className="border-b border-white/[0.03] last:border-0">
             <td className="px-3 py-2 num text-gray-300">{event.date}</td>
-                <td className={`px-3 py-2 text-right ${event.warned ? 'text-emerald-400' : 'text-gray-500'}`}>{event.warned ? 'yes' : 'no'}</td>
+            <td className={`px-3 py-2 text-right ${event.warned ? 'text-emerald-400' : 'text-gray-400'}`}>{event.warned ? 'yes' : 'no'}</td>
             <td className="px-3 py-2 text-right num text-gray-300">{event.lead_days == null ? '—' : `${event.lead_days}d`}</td>
           </tr>
         ))}</tbody>
       </table>
     </div>
+  );
+}
+
+/** Shipped rule against ablations, external baselines, and chance.
+ *
+ * The two kinds answer different questions and must not be read as one list:
+ * an ablation asks whether the quadrant machinery earns its place, a baseline
+ * asks whether the score earns its complexity.
+ */
+function ComparisonTable({ report }: { report: EventStudyReport }) {
+  const shipped = report.shipped;
+  if (!shipped || !report.comparison?.length) return null;
+  const rows = [
+    {
+      id: 'shipped',
+      label: 'Quadrant alert (shipped)',
+      kind: 'shipped' as const,
+      note: shipped.rule.entry,
+      measurable: true,
+      ...shipped.metrics,
+    },
+    ...report.comparison,
+  ];
+  const KIND_LABEL: Record<string, string> = {
+    shipped: 'shipped',
+    ablation: 'ablation',
+    baseline: 'baseline',
+    fundamental: 'fundamental',
+  };
+  return (
+    <div className="space-y-2">
+      <div className="overflow-x-auto rounded-lg border border-white/[0.06]">
+        <table className="w-full text-xs">
+          <thead><tr className="border-b border-white/[0.06] text-left text-gray-400">
+            <th className="px-3 py-2 font-medium">Rule</th>
+            <th className="px-3 py-2 text-right font-medium">Warned</th>
+            <th className="px-3 py-2 text-right font-medium">FA/yr</th>
+            <th className="px-3 py-2 text-right font-medium">Median lead</th>
+          </tr></thead>
+          <tbody>{rows.map((row) => (
+            <tr
+              key={row.id}
+              className={`border-b border-white/[0.03] last:border-0 ${row.kind === 'shipped' ? 'bg-white/[0.03]' : ''}`}
+              title={row.note}
+            >
+              <td className={`px-3 py-2 ${row.kind === 'shipped' ? 'font-medium text-gray-200' : 'text-gray-400'}`}>
+                {row.label}
+                <span className="ml-2 text-xs uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-400">{KIND_LABEL[row.kind]}</span>
+              </td>
+              {/* A rule whose input does not exist yet scores 0/N, and printing
+                  that would read as tested-and-failed. Say "not measurable". */}
+              {row.measurable === false ? (
+                <td className="px-3 py-2 text-right text-xs italic text-gray-400" colSpan={3}>
+                  {/* Not "no observations yet": once some exist but fewer than
+                      the minimum are covered, that is simply false. Matches the
+                      callout below. */}
+                  insufficient exposure — not measurable
+                </td>
+              ) : (
+                <>
+                  <td className="px-3 py-2 text-right num text-gray-300">{row.events_warned}/{row.events}</td>
+                  <td className="px-3 py-2 text-right num text-gray-300">{row.false_alarms_per_year?.toFixed(1) ?? '—'}</td>
+                  <td className="px-3 py-2 text-right num text-gray-300">{row.median_lead_days == null ? '—' : `${row.median_lead_days}d`}</td>
+                </>
               )}
+            </tr>
+          ))}
+          {report.null_model && (
+            <tr className="border-t border-white/[0.06] text-gray-400">
+              <td className="px-3 py-2">
+                Random alarms, same firing rate
+                <span className="ml-2 text-xs uppercase tracking-wide text-gray-400">null</span>
+              </td>
+              <td className="px-3 py-2 text-right num">
+                {report.null_model.mean_warned.toFixed(1)} ± {report.null_model.sd_warned.toFixed(1)}
+              </td>
+              <td className="px-3 py-2 text-right num">—</td>
+              <td className="px-3 py-2 text-right num">—</td>
+            </tr>
+          )}</tbody>
+        </table>
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
+function StudyVerdict({ report }: { report: EventStudyReport }) {
+  const model = report.null_model;
+  if (!model) return null;
+  const chancePct = (model.p_at_least_observed * 100).toFixed(0);
+  const indistinguishable = model.p_at_least_observed >= 0.1;
+  // The number carries the claim, not the adjective. At ~10 corrections a p of
+  // 0.09 is not evidence of anything, so "beats the null" would over-state a
+  // result this panel is otherwise careful never to over-state.
+  return (
+    <Callout variant={indistinguishable ? 'warning' : 'info'}>
+      <strong>
+        {indistinguishable
+          ? `Not distinguishable from chance (p = ${model.p_at_least_observed.toFixed(2)}).`
+          : `Above the firing-rate null (p = ${model.p_at_least_observed.toFixed(2)}).`}
+      </strong>{' '}
+      Random alarms match or beat {model.observed_warned}/{model.events} warned corrections in {chancePct}% of{' '}
+      {model.draws} draws placing {model.alarms_per_draw} alarms over the same sessions. Corrections cluster and random
+      placement does not, so this is the floor, not the bar.
+    </Callout>
+  );
+}
+
+/** The credit sensor starts partway through, so Warning is a different
+ *  construct either side of it. The share is derived, never asserted: if one era
+ *  carries no corrections there is no comparison to draw and the per-era ratios
+ *  would be noise dressed up as a finding. */
+function EraDisclosure({
+  eras,
+  divider,
+}: {
+  eras: NonNullable<NonNullable<EventStudyReport['shipped']>['by_era']>;
+  divider: number | undefined;
+}) {
+  const { pre_credit: pre, full_coverage: full } = eras;
+  const total = pre.sessions + full.sessions;
+  const share = total > 0 ? Math.round((pre.sessions / total) * 100) : 0;
+  // An era holding one or two corrections has a recall of 0/1 or 1/2, which is
+  // not a rate. Below this the eras get their false-alarm rates compared and
+  // nothing else.
+  const comparable = pre.events >= 3 && full.events >= 3;
+  return (
+    <Disclosure summary={`Sensor-era caveat · ${share}% of sessions predate credit`}>
+      <p className="text-xs leading-relaxed text-gray-400">
+        <strong>{share}% of the evaluated sessions predate the credit sensor.</strong> W3 begins {eras.credit_from}, so
+        before that Warning renormalises to W1+W2 and the fixed {divider} divider is applied to a different construct
+        than it was reasoned about. Dropping the training split makes every correction evaluable; it does not make the
+        coverage gap go away, it moves it from the threshold to the score.
+        {comparable ? (
+          <>
+            {' '}Two sensors:{' '}
+            <strong className="text-gray-300">{pre.events_warned}/{pre.events}</strong> at{' '}
+            {pre.false_alarms_per_year?.toFixed(1) ?? '—'} FA/yr. All three:{' '}
+            <strong className="text-gray-300">{full.events_warned}/{full.events}</strong> at{' '}
+            {full.false_alarms_per_year?.toFixed(1) ?? '—'} FA/yr.
+          </>
+        ) : (
+          <>
+            {' '}The corrections do not straddle that boundary ({pre.events} before, {full.events} after), so the two
+            eras cannot be compared on recall — only the false-alarm rates are meaningful ({pre.false_alarms_per_year?.toFixed(1) ?? '—'}{' '}
+            vs {full.false_alarms_per_year?.toFixed(1) ?? '—'} per year).
+          </>
+        )}
+      </p>
+    </Disclosure>
+  );
+}
+
+function EventStudyBody({ report }: { report: EventStudyReport }) {
+  const shipped = report.shipped;
+  const eras = shipped?.by_era;
+  return (
+    <div className="space-y-4">
+      <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2">
+        <Badge label={report.evaluation ?? 'exploratory'} variant={report.evaluation === 'holdout' ? 'auto' : 'manual'} />
+        {report.generated_at && <span className="text-xs text-gray-400">generated {new Date(report.generated_at).toLocaleDateString()}</span>}
+        {report.sample && <span className="text-xs text-gray-400">{report.sample.evaluable_from} → {report.sample.end}</span>}
+      </div>
+      <StudyVerdict report={report} />
+      <p className="text-sm leading-relaxed text-gray-300">{report.summary}</p>
+      {shipped && <StatTiles metrics={shipped.metrics} />}
+      <ComparisonTable report={report} />
+
+      {shipped && shipped.events.length > 0 && (
+        <Disclosure summary={`Correction details · ${shipped.events.length} events`}>
+          <EventTable events={shipped.events} />
+        </Disclosure>
+      )}
+
+      {report.null_model && (
+        <Disclosure summary="Null-model interpretation">
+          <p className="text-xs leading-relaxed text-gray-400">
+            The null places {report.null_model.alarms_per_draw} alarms at random over the same sessions and at the
+            shipped rule's firing rate. Corrections cluster while random placement does not, so this is a floor rather
+            than a demanding benchmark: a clustering rule could beat it without genuine foresight.
+          </p>
+        </Disclosure>
+      )}
+
+      {report.fundamental_coverage && !report.fundamental_coverage.measurable && (
+        <Disclosure
+          summary={`Fundamental exposure · ${report.fundamental_coverage.events_covered}/${report.fundamental_coverage.events_evaluable} corrections covered`}
+        >
+          <p className="text-xs leading-relaxed text-gray-400">
+            <strong>Insufficient exposure — the fundamental rows are untested, not failed.</strong>{' '}
+            The channel had usable context on{' '}
+            <strong className="text-gray-300">
+              {report.fundamental_coverage.sessions_eligible} of{' '}
+              {report.fundamental_coverage.evaluable_sessions}
+            </strong>{' '}
+            evaluated sessions, covering{' '}
+            <strong className="text-gray-300">
+              {report.fundamental_coverage.events_covered} of{' '}
+              {report.fundamental_coverage.events_evaluable}
+            </strong>{' '}
+            corrections ({report.fundamental_coverage.minimum_events} needed;{' '}
+            {report.fundamental_coverage.observations} observation
+            {report.fundamental_coverage.observations === 1 ? '' : 's'} recorded). Those rows are
+            scored only on that window, never on the market rows' full sample — otherwise a
+            fortnight of data would render as a 0/10 and read as a failed test. Read the market rows
+            as a verdict on the technical sensors and the alert machinery only.
+          </p>
+        </Disclosure>
+      )}
+
+      {eras && <EraDisclosure eras={eras} divider={shipped?.rule.warning_divider} />}
+
+      {report.fitted && (
+        <Disclosure summary={`Fitted-threshold variant · ${report.fitted.metrics.events_warned}/${report.fitted.metrics.events} on the 30% holdout`}>
+          <div className="space-y-3 pt-1">
+            <p className="text-xs leading-relaxed text-gray-400">
+              The original study, kept because it is what the methodology document reports: an{' '}
+              {report.fitted.params.warn_percentile}th-percentile Warning threshold (
+              {report.fitted.params.warn_threshold}) frozen on the first{' '}
+              {(report.fitted.params.train_fraction * 100).toFixed(0)}% of sessions and measured on the rest. Nothing
+              consumes this rule — the shipped alert uses fixed dividers with hysteresis, confirmation and a cooldown.
+            </p>
+            <StatTiles metrics={report.fitted.metrics} />
+            {report.fitted.events.length > 0 && <EventTable events={report.fitted.events} />}
             {report.reliability && (report.reliability.underpowered || report.reliability.sensor_coverage_mismatch) && (
               <Callout variant="warning">
                 <div className="space-y-1.5">
                   {report.reliability.underpowered && (
                     <p>
                       <strong>Underpowered.</strong> Only {report.reliability.events_in_holdout} of{' '}
-                {report.reliability.events_detected} detected corrections fall in the test period (
+                      {report.reliability.events_detected} detected corrections fall in the holdout (
                       {report.reliability.minimum_events}+ needed). Read the direction, not the ratio.
                     </p>
                   )}
@@ -355,6 +642,9 @@ function EventStudyBody({ report }: { report: EventStudyReport }) {
               </Callout>
             )}
           </div>
+        </Disclosure>
+      )}
+    </div>
   );
 }
 
@@ -394,15 +684,26 @@ function FundamentalsEditor({
 }) {
   const [capex, setCapex] = useState<Record<string, CapexState>>(() => ({ ...data.capex }));
   const [reaction, setReaction] = useState<GoodNewsReaction>(data.good_news_stock_down);
-  const knownCapex = Object.values(capex).filter((state) => state !== 'unknown');
+  const values = Object.values(capex);
-  // Mirrors _CAPEX_STATE_SCORES: raising 0, holding 50, cutting 100. Holding is
+  const counts = {
-  // the deceleration case and used to score identically to raising.
+    cutting: values.filter((s) => s === 'cutting').length,
-  const capexPoints = knownCapex.reduce((sum, state) => sum + (state === 'cutting' ? 100 : state === 'holding' ? 50 : 0), 0);
+    holding: values.filter((s) => s === 'holding').length,
-  const derivedF1 = knownCapex.length >= 3 ? Math.round((capexPoints / knownCapex.length) * 10) / 10 : null;
+    raising: values.filter((s) => s === 'raising').length,
-  const derivedF3 = reaction === 'yes' ? 100 : reaction === 'no' ? 0 : null;
+    unknown: values.filter((s) => s === 'unknown').length,
+  };
+  // Mirrors _capex_signal: any cut is adverse on partial evidence, any hold is
+  // neutral, all-known-raising is supportive, nothing known is unknown. No
+  // average — an average would let cuts and unknowns land on "neutral".
+  const capexSignal: FundamentalState =
+    counts.cutting > 0 ? 'adverse'
+    : counts.holding > 0 ? 'neutral'
+    : counts.raising > 0 ? 'supportive'
+    : 'unknown';
+  const reactionSignal: FundamentalState =
+    reaction === 'yes' ? 'adverse' : reaction === 'no' ? 'supportive' : reaction === 'mixed' ? 'neutral' : 'unknown';
   return (
     <div className="space-y-4">
-      <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2 text-xs text-gray-500">
+      <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2 text-xs text-gray-400">
         <span>Source: {data.source}</span>
         {data.fetched_at && <span>· fetched {new Date(data.fetched_at).toLocaleDateString()}</span>}
         {data.effective_date && <span>· effective {data.effective_date}</span>}
@@ -411,8 +712,8 @@ function FundamentalsEditor({
       {data.reasoning && <p className="text-xs leading-relaxed text-gray-400">{data.reasoning}</p>}
       <div>
         <div className="mb-2 flex items-center justify-between gap-3 text-xs">
-          <span className="font-medium text-gray-300">F1 · Capex guidance by hyperscaler</span>
+          <span className="font-medium text-gray-300">Capex guidance by hyperscaler</span>
-          <span className="num text-gray-500">score {derivedF1 ?? 'n/a'}</span>
+          <span style={{ color: FUNDAMENTAL_VISUAL[capexSignal].color }}>{capexSignal}</span>
         </div>
         <div className="grid grid-cols-2 gap-2">
           {Object.entries(capex).map(([symbol, state]) => (
@@ -428,17 +729,24 @@ function FundamentalsEditor({
             </label>
           ))}
         </div>
-        <p className="mt-1.5 text-[11px] text-gray-600">Raising = 0, holding = 50, cutting = 100; at least three known names required.</p>
+        <p className="mt-1.5 text-xs text-gray-400">
+          {counts.cutting} cutting · {counts.holding} holding · {counts.raising} raising · {counts.unknown} unknown.
+          Any cut reads adverse on partial evidence; supportive needs every known name raising.
+        </p>
       </div>
       <label className="flex items-center justify-between gap-3 text-xs text-gray-400">
         <span>
-          <span className="font-medium text-gray-300">F3 · Good news, stock down</span>
+          <span className="font-medium text-gray-300">Good news, stock down</span>
-          <span className="ml-2 num text-gray-600">score {derivedF3 ?? 'n/a'}</span>
+          <span className="ml-2" style={{ color: FUNDAMENTAL_VISUAL[reactionSignal].color }}>{reactionSignal}</span>
         </span>
+        {/* "Mixed" is an observed mixed reaction; "unknown" is nobody looked or
+            the extraction failed. Collapsing them made a parse error read as
+            neutral evidence. */}
         <select className={SELECT_CLASS} value={reaction} onChange={(event) => setReaction(event.target.value as GoodNewsReaction)}>
-          <option value="yes">Yes · stress</option>
+          <option value="yes">Yes · good news sold</option>
-          <option value="no">No · ordinary</option>
+          <option value="no">No · reacting normally</option>
-          <option value="mixed">Mixed · unavailable</option>
+          <option value="mixed">Mixed · observed, no clear pattern</option>
+          <option value="unknown">Unknown · not observed</option>
         </select>
       </label>
       <div className="flex flex-wrap gap-2">
@@ -465,7 +773,7 @@ function ConfigEditor({ data, onSave, saving }: { data: RegimeConfig; onSave: (u
         <input type="number" min={30} max={180} value={staleness} onChange={(event) => setStaleness(Number(event.target.value))} className="w-20 rounded-md border border-white/[0.08] bg-white/[0.03] px-2 py-1 text-right num text-gray-200" />
         <span>days</span>
       </label>
-      <p className="text-[11px] text-gray-600">Changing the basket resets its freeze date and silently reseeds quadrant alerts.</p>
+      <p className="text-xs text-gray-400">Changing the basket resets its freeze date and silently reseeds quadrant alerts.</p>
       <button className="btn-primary px-3 py-1.5 text-sm disabled:opacity-50" disabled={saving || symbols.length < 20} onClick={() => onSave({ breadth_basket: symbols, fundamental_staleness_days: staleness })}>Save basket &amp; freshness</button>
     </div>
   );
@@ -483,13 +791,13 @@ function AdminControls() {
     <Disclosure summary="Admin · Monitor settings">
       <div className="grid gap-5 xl:grid-cols-2 xl:gap-6">
         <section className="border-b border-white/[0.06] pb-5 xl:border-b-0 xl:border-r xl:pb-0 xl:pr-6">
-          <div className="mb-3 text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-500">Fundamental observations</div>
+          <div className="mb-3 text-xs uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-400">Fundamental observations</div>
           {fundamentals.isLoading && <SkeletonCard className="h-36" />}
           {fundamentals.data && <FundamentalsEditor key={fundamentals.dataUpdatedAt} data={fundamentals.data} onSave={(body) => saveFundamentals.mutate(body)} onRefresh={() => refresh.mutate()} saving={saveFundamentals.isPending} refreshing={refresh.isPending} />}
           {refresh.isError && <Callout variant="error">Refresh failed: {(refresh.error as Error).message}</Callout>}
         </section>
         <section>
-          <div className="mb-3 text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-500">Fixed basket &amp; freshness</div>
+          <div className="mb-3 text-xs uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-400">Fixed basket &amp; freshness</div>
           {config.isLoading && <SkeletonCard className="h-36" />}
           {config.data && <ConfigEditor key={config.dataUpdatedAt} data={config.data} onSave={(updates) => saveConfig.mutate(updates)} saving={saveConfig.isPending} />}
           {saveConfig.isError && <Callout variant="error">Save failed: {(saveConfig.error as Error).message}</Callout>}
@@ -508,7 +816,19 @@ export default function RegimePage() {
     <div className="space-y-6 animate-slide-up">
       <PageHeader
         title="AI/Tech Risk Monitor"
-        subtitle="AI/Tech risk thermometer — observational only, feeds no entry, exit, or sizing decision"
+        subtitle="Market stress, early warning, and fundamental context"
+        actions={
+          <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center justify-end gap-2">
+            <Badge label="observational only" variant="default" />
+            {data?.date && <span className="num text-xs text-gray-400">as of {data.date}</span>}
+            {data?.available && (
+              <Badge
+                label={data.data_quality?.is_fresh ? 'fresh' : 'check data'}
+                variant={data.data_quality?.is_fresh ? 'auto' : 'manual'}
+              />
+            )}
+          </div>
+        }
       />
 
       {monitor.isLoading && <><SkeletonCard className="h-44" /><SkeletonTable rows={6} cols={4} /></>}
@@ -524,7 +844,7 @@ export default function RegimePage() {
             </Callout>
           )}
 
-          <div className="grid gap-4 lg:grid-cols-2">
+          <div className="grid gap-4 lg:grid-cols-3">
             <ScoreGauge
               label="State · stress right now"
               reading={data.state}
@@ -542,17 +862,27 @@ export default function RegimePage() {
             <ScoreGauge
               label="Warning · deterioration & divergence"
               reading={data.warning}
-              footnote="Breadth divergence, SMH/SPY rollover, and HY credit impulse. Missing sensors reduce coverage; they never default to 50."
+              footnote={
+                <>
+                  Breadth divergence · SMH/SPY rollover · HY credit impulse.
+                  {data.warning.coverage < 100 && ' Missing sensors are omitted rather than filled.'}
+                </>
+              }
             />
+            {data.fundamental_live && <FundamentalSummaryCard overlay={data.fundamental_live} />}
           </div>
 
+          <ConfluenceStrip warning={data.warning} context={data.fundamental_context} />
+
           <Suspense fallback={<SkeletonCard className="h-80" />}><RegimeChart /></Suspense>
 
+          {data.fundamental_live && <FundamentalEvidence overlay={data.fundamental_live} />}
+
           <PillarTable state={data.state} warning={data.warning} />
 
-          {data.fundamental_context && <FundamentalOverlayCard overlay={data.fundamental_context} />}
+          <Disclosure summary="Data provenance · coverage and history">
-
             <MetaStrip data={data} />
+          </Disclosure>
         </>
       )}
 

frontend/src/styles/globals.css

@@ -42,6 +42,14 @@
     appearance: textfield;
   }
 
+  /* --ink, not --up-text: a focus ring must not carry a semantic colour. The
+     directional token reads as "up/positive" and lands at poor contrast on the
+     controls that are already that colour. */
+  :where(button, a, input, select, textarea, summary, [tabindex]):focus-visible {
+    outline: 2px solid var(--ink);
+    outline-offset: 3px;
+  }
+
   /* Atmosphere: faint starfield + soft rim-cyan / ember glows + film grain */
   #root {
     position: relative;
@@ -83,6 +91,17 @@
   }
 }
 
+@media (prefers-reduced-motion: reduce) {
+  *,
+  *::before,
+  *::after {
+    animation-duration: 0.01ms !important;
+    animation-iteration-count: 1 !important;
+    scroll-behavior: auto !important;
+    transition-duration: 0.01ms !important;
+  }
+}
+
 @layer components {
   /* Mars horizon — fixed at the viewport bottom, atmosphere only, never data */
   .app-horizon {

scripts/run_regime_monitor_calibration.py

@@ -18,6 +18,15 @@ The script refuses to emit a band recommendation unless every hard gate passes.
 That is deliberate: it must be structurally impossible to read a calibration
 result out of a run whose pipeline did not validate.
 
+**Fundamental channel note.** The sourced capex / earnings read is a separate
+categorical channel and is never a term in State or Warning, so every variant and
+gate below is unaffected by it. This harness passes no observation, which means
+the ``fundamental_context`` on each replayed row reads ``unknown`` -- correct, and
+the same thing production reports for a session nobody observed. Calibrating
+anything *about* that channel needs an observation series passed through
+``_compute_index(..., observations=...)``, and enough history to be worth
+calibrating against.
+
 Research branch only. Example:
 
   .\\.venv\\Scripts\\python.exe scripts\\run_regime_monitor_calibration.py ^

tests/unit/test_event_study.py

@@ -1,17 +1,27 @@
-"""Tests for v3 correction events, warning alarm episodes, and report caveats."""
+"""Tests for correction events, alarm episodes, the shipped-rule replay, and caveats."""
 
 from __future__ import annotations
 
+from copy import deepcopy
 from datetime import date, timedelta
 
+import pytest
+
 from app.services.breadth_service import _breadth_from_closes, compute_divergence_series
 from app.services.event_study_service import (
     MIN_EVENTS_FOR_CONFIDENCE,
+    STRESS_QUADRANT,
+    WARNING_QUADRANTS,
+    _era_split,
+    _null_model,
     _percentile,
     _reliability,
     alarm_episodes,
+    below_average_series,
     detect_events,
+    entry_alarms,
     evaluate_alarms,
+    replay_quadrant_changes,
 )
 
 
@@ -19,6 +29,33 @@ def _days(count: int, start: date = date(2021, 1, 1)) -> list[date]:
     return [start + timedelta(days=index) for index in range(count)]
 
 
+def _row(
+    warning: float,
+    state: float = 0.0,
+    *,
+    warning_coverage: float = 100.0,
+    state_coverage: float = 100.0,
+    fresh: bool = True,
+) -> dict:
+    return {
+        "state": state,
+        "warning": warning,
+        "state_coverage": state_coverage,
+        "warning_coverage": warning_coverage,
+        "inputs_fresh": fresh,
+    }
+
+
+def _rows(
+    dates: list[date], warnings: list[float], patch: dict[int, dict] | None = None
+) -> dict[date, dict]:
+    """One publishable row per date, with per-position replacements."""
+    built = {day: _row(value) for day, value in zip(dates, warnings)}
+    for index, replacement in (patch or {}).items():
+        built[dates[index]] = replacement
+    return built
+
+
 def test_detect_events_uses_rising_edge_and_cooldown():
     closes = [100.0] * 300 + [85.0] * 5 + [100.0] * 50 + [85.0] * 5
     events = detect_events(closes, _days(len(closes)), threshold_pct=15.0, cooldown=40)
@@ -88,6 +125,366 @@ def test_evaluate_alarms_counts_episodes_not_alarm_days():
     assert result["median_lead_days"] == 17.5
 
 
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# The shipped quadrant rule, replayed
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+def test_replay_seeds_silently_and_needs_two_sessions():
+    """A one-session spike is not an alert; the second session confirms it.
+
+    The alarm is therefore dated at the confirmation rather than at the first
+    crossing, which costs one session of lead. That is what ships.
+    """
+    dates = _days(10)
+    spike = _rows(dates, [30] * 5 + [70] + [30] * 4)
+    assert replay_quadrant_changes(spike, dates) == []
+
+    held = _rows(dates, [30] * 5 + [70, 70] + [30] * 3)
+    fires = replay_quadrant_changes(held, dates)
+    # The rule alerts on quadrant changes in both directions, so the return to
+    # calm fires too. Only the entry is a warning about anything.
+    assert [(f["index"], f["from"], f["to"]) for f in fires] == [
+        (6, "3", "1"),
+        (9, "1", "3"),
+    ]
+    assert entry_alarms(fires, WARNING_QUADRANTS) == [6]
+
+
+def test_confirmation_classifies_the_prior_session_against_the_baseline():
+    """Not against its own predecessor -- the distinction changes the answer.
+
+    Warning 42 sits inside the hysteresis deadband. Measured from the standing
+    "3" baseline it is still "3", so it cannot confirm a move to "1". A chain
+    that classified each session against the one before it would read 42 as "1"
+    (having just seen 70) and fire a day later, which production does not do.
+    """
+    dates = _days(10)
+    rows = _rows(dates, [30, 30, 30, 30, 70, 42, 70, 30, 30, 30])
+    assert replay_quadrant_changes(rows, dates) == []
+
+
+def test_cooldown_suppresses_and_the_baseline_only_advances_on_a_fire():
+    dates = _days(10)
+    rows = _rows(dates, [30, 30, 30, 30, 70, 70, 30, 30, 30, 30])
+    fires = replay_quadrant_changes(rows, dates)
+
+    # Entry confirmed on day 5. The exit confirms on day 7 but lands inside the
+    # 3-day cooldown, so it is re-evaluated and fires on day 8 instead.
+    assert [(f["index"], f["from"], f["to"]) for f in fires] == [
+        (5, "3", "1"),
+        (8, "1", "3"),
+    ]
+    assert entry_alarms(fires, WARNING_QUADRANTS) == [5]
+
+
+def test_low_coverage_sessions_cannot_confirm():
+    """The confirmation source has to be a session that published a band."""
+    dates = _days(10)
+    warnings = [30, 30, 30, 30, 30, 70, 70, 30, 30, 30]
+    visible = replay_quadrant_changes(_rows(dates, warnings), dates)
+    assert entry_alarms(visible, WARNING_QUADRANTS) == [6]
+
+    # Day 5 is the only session that could confirm the entry on day 6; below
+    # MIN_COVERAGE it never published a band, so day 4 is the prior instead.
+    hidden = _rows(dates, warnings, {5: _row(70, warning_coverage=70.0)})
+    assert replay_quadrant_changes(hidden, dates) == []
+
+
+def test_stale_inputs_block_todays_alert_but_not_tomorrows_confirmation():
+    """is_fresh gates the live reading only; the prior session comes from history."""
+    dates = _days(10)
+    rows = _rows(dates, [30] * 4 + [70, 70, 70] + [30] * 3, {5: _row(70, fresh=False)})
+    fires = replay_quadrant_changes(rows, dates)
+    assert entry_alarms(fires, WARNING_QUADRANTS) == [6]
+
+
+def test_entry_alarms_ignore_movement_inside_the_set():
+    fires = [
+        {"index": 3, "from": "3", "to": "1"},
+        {"index": 9, "from": "1", "to": "2"},
+        {"index": 20, "from": "2", "to": "4"},
+    ]
+    assert entry_alarms(fires, WARNING_QUADRANTS) == [3]
+    assert entry_alarms(fires, STRESS_QUADRANT) == [9]
+
+
+def test_below_average_series_needs_a_full_window():
+    series = list(zip(_days(6), [10.0, 10.0, 10.0, 10.0, 4.0, 20.0]))
+    indicator = below_average_series(series, window=3)
+    assert _days(6)[1] not in indicator      # warm-up
+    assert indicator[_days(6)[4]] == 100.0   # 4 is under the 3-day mean of 8
+    assert indicator[_days(6)[5]] == 0.0
+
+
+def test_null_model_is_seeded_and_drawn_from_evaluable_sessions_only():
+    dates = _days(300)
+    events = [100, 180, 260]
+    first = _null_model(6, events, dates, horizon=20, start_index=50, observed_warned=2, draws=200)
+    second = _null_model(6, events, dates, horizon=20, start_index=50, observed_warned=2, draws=200)
+    assert first == second                       # a re-run must not move the report
+    assert 0.0 <= first["p_at_least_observed"] <= 1.0
+    assert first["alarms_per_draw"] == 6
+    assert first["mean_warned"] <= len(events)
+
+    # More alarms than there are sessions to place them on is not a null.
+    assert _null_model(500, events, dates, 20, 50, 2, draws=10) is None
+    assert _null_model(6, [], dates, 20, 50, 0, draws=10) is None
+
+
+def test_era_split_reports_the_two_sensor_eras_separately():
+    """The fuller sample is mostly pre-credit, where Warning is W1+W2 only."""
+    dates = _days(400)
+    eras = _era_split(
+        alarms=[80, 300],
+        event_indices=[90, 310],
+        dates=dates,
+        horizon=20,
+        start_index=10,
+        credit_from=dates[200],
+    )
+    assert eras["pre_credit"]["events"] == 1
+    assert eras["pre_credit"]["events_warned"] == 1
+    assert eras["full_coverage"]["events"] == 1
+    assert eras["full_coverage"]["events_warned"] == 1
+    assert eras["credit_from"] == dates[200].isoformat()
+
+    # No credit series at all means there is no boundary to split on.
+    assert _era_split([80], [90], dates, 20, 10, None) is None
+
+
+def _business_days(count: int, end: date = date(2026, 8, 7)) -> list[date]:
+    out: list[date] = []
+    cursor = end
+    while len(out) < count:
+        if cursor.weekday() < 5:
+            out.append(cursor)
+        cursor -= timedelta(days=1)
+    return list(reversed(out))
+
+
+def _synthetic_path(sessions: int) -> list[float]:
+    """A rising leader with two deep drawdowns, so corrections exist to detect."""
+    closes: list[float] = []
+    for index in range(sessions):
+        if index < 350:
+            closes.append(100.0 + index * 0.25)
+        elif index < 400:
+            closes.append(187.5 - (index - 350) * 0.9)
+        elif index < 650:
+            closes.append(142.5 + (index - 400) * 0.4)
+        elif index < 700:
+            closes.append(242.5 - (index - 650) * 1.1)
+        else:
+            closes.append(187.5 + (index - 700) * 0.3)
+    return closes
+
+
+async def test_report_assembles_every_rule_from_synthetic_inputs(monkeypatch):
+    """End-to-end: the shipped replay, ablations, baselines and null all score.
+
+    Synthetic rather than recorded because the point is the wiring -- that every
+    rule is measured on the same events over the same sessions and the report
+    carries what the panel reads. The numbers are meaningless by construction.
+    """
+    import app.services.event_study_service as ess
+
+    sessions = 900
+    dates = _business_days(sessions)
+    closes = _synthetic_path(sessions)
+    leader = list(zip(dates, closes))
+    # SPY grinds up throughout, so the leader's relative strength rolls over
+    # exactly when it falls.
+    market = list(zip(dates, [100.0 + index * 0.12 for index in range(sessions)]))
+    # Breadth deteriorates ~15 sessions ahead of each decline, which is the
+    # divergence W1 exists to catch.
+    breadth = {}
+    for index, day in enumerate(dates):
+        weak = 335 <= index < 400 or 635 <= index < 700
+        breadth[day] = 30.0 if weak else 70.0
+    vix = [(day, 32.0 if (350 <= i < 400 or 650 <= i < 700) else 15.0) for i, day in enumerate(dates)]
+    # Credit starts late, exactly as ICE's 3-year cap makes it in production.
+    oas = [(day, 4.2 if (650 <= i < 700) else 3.0) for i, day in enumerate(dates) if i >= 500]
+
+    async def fake_config(_db):
+        return deepcopy(ess.rms.DEFAULT_CONFIG)
+
+    async def fake_prices(_config, _start, _end):
+        return {"SMH": leader, "QQQ": leader, "SPY": market}
+
+    async def fake_fred(series_id, _start, _end):
+        return {"VIXCLS": vix, "BAMLH0A0HYM2": oas}.get(series_id)
+
+    async def fake_breadth(_db, _symbols, window=200, min_tickers=20):
+        return breadth, {day: 30 for day in dates}
+
+    async def fake_observations(_db):
+        return []
+
+    monkeypatch.setattr(ess.rms, "get_regime_config", fake_config)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(ess.rms, "_fetch_prices", fake_prices)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(ess.rms, "_fetch_fred_series", fake_fred)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(ess.rms, "get_fundamental_observations", fake_observations)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(ess.breadth_service, "compute_breadth_details", fake_breadth)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(ess, "NULL_DRAWS", 100)
+
+    report = await ess.run_event_study(None)
+
+    assert report["available"] is True
+    assert report["schema"] == ess.STUDY_SCHEMA
+
+    # The shipped rule is measured on the whole sample, not a 30% holdout.
+    shipped = report["shipped"]
+    assert shipped["metrics"]["events"] == report["sample"]["events_evaluable"]
+    assert report["sample"]["events_evaluable"] >= 2
+    assert shipped["metrics"]["events"] >= report["fitted"]["metrics"]["events"]
+    assert len(shipped["events"]) == shipped["metrics"]["events"]
+
+    assert {row["kind"] for row in report["comparison"]} == {
+        "ablation", "baseline", "fundamental",
+    }
+    # Market rows share the headline's events, or the table lies. Fundamental
+    # rows deliberately do not: they are coverage-matched to the sessions the
+    # channel actually existed on, which is a different (here empty) window.
+    for row in report["comparison"]:
+        if row["kind"] != "fundamental":
+            assert row["events"] == shipped["metrics"]["events"]
+            assert row["false_alarms_per_year"] >= 0
+        else:
+            # No eligible sessions means the rate is undefined, not zero. A
+            # tiny-divisor fallback here printed 5e9 alarms/year.
+            assert row["false_alarms_per_year"] is None
+
+    # The credit sensor starts mid-sample, so the era split must be populated.
+    eras = shipped["by_era"]
+    assert eras["credit_from"] == dates[500].isoformat()
+    assert eras["pre_credit"]["events"] + eras["full_coverage"]["events"] == shipped["metrics"]["events"]
+
+    if report["null_model"] is not None:
+        assert 0.0 <= report["null_model"]["p_at_least_observed"] <= 1.0
+        assert report["null_model"]["observed_warned"] == shipped["metrics"]["events_warned"]
+
+    # With an empty observation series the fundamental rows are *untested*, not
+    # failed, and the report has to carry that distinction or a 0/10 in the table
+    # reads as a measured result.
+    coverage = report["fundamental_coverage"]
+    assert coverage["observations"] == 0
+    assert coverage["sessions_eligible"] == 0
+    assert coverage["events_covered"] == 0
+    assert coverage["measurable"] is False
+    fundamental_rows = [r for r in report["comparison"] if r["kind"] == "fundamental"]
+    assert {r["id"] for r in fundamental_rows} == {
+        "fundamental_adverse", "confluence", "market_over_covered",
+    }
+    assert all(row["measurable"] is False for row in fundamental_rows)
+    # Coverage-matched denominators: with no exposure these rows must not claim
+    # to have been scored against the market rows' 10 corrections.
+    assert all(row["events"] == 0 for row in fundamental_rows)
+    # Market rows are unaffected: their inputs exist for the whole window.
+    assert all(
+        row["measurable"] is True
+        for row in report["comparison"]
+        if row["kind"] != "fundamental"
+    )
+
+
+def test_fundamental_rows_are_scored_only_on_their_own_exposure():
+    """One day of coverage must not render as 0/10.
+
+    A fundamental rule scores zero whether it is wrong or merely absent, so
+    scoring it against corrections it could never have seen manufactures a
+    failed result out of a thin one — the same mistake the `measurable` flag
+    prevents for an empty table, arriving one observation later.
+    """
+    import app.services.event_study_service as ess
+
+    dates = _days(300)
+    events = [50, 120, 200, 280]
+    # Context exists for a single stretch, covering only the 120 event's horizon.
+    rows = {
+        day: {
+            "fundamental_state": "adverse",
+            "fundamental_usable": 105 <= index <= 115,
+        }
+        for index, day in enumerate(dates)
+    }
+
+    covered = ess.covered_events(events, rows, dates, horizon=20)
+    assert covered == [120]
+    assert ess.eligible_sessions(rows, dates, start_index=0) == 11
+
+    # A stale stretch counts for nothing, however adverse it reads.
+    stale = {
+        day: {"fundamental_state": "adverse", "fundamental_usable": False}
+        for day in dates
+    }
+    assert ess.covered_events(events, stale, dates, horizon=20) == []
+    assert ess.eligible_sessions(stale, dates, start_index=0) == 0
+    assert ess.adverse_episodes(stale, dates, 0) == []
+    assert ess.confluence_episodes([120], stale, dates) == []
+
+    # And neither does a *fresh* observation that determined nothing. Repeated
+    # extraction failures would otherwise accumulate exposure until the rows
+    # flipped to a measurable 0/8 for a channel that never knew anything —
+    # the same tested-versus-unavailable confusion, arriving by a slower route.
+    empty = {
+        day: {"fundamental_state": "unknown", "fundamental_usable": False}
+        for day in dates
+    }
+    assert ess.covered_events(events, empty, dates, horizon=20) == []
+    assert ess.eligible_sessions(empty, dates, start_index=0) == 0
+
+
+async def test_the_fundamental_channel_never_moves_the_warning_score():
+    """The channel is compared, never fused. Warning must be identical either way.
+
+    A weighted modifier was built and reverted: with ~10 correction events and
+    almost no fundamental history any fusion weight is a policy preference
+    presented as a measurement.
+    """
+    import app.services.event_study_service as ess
+
+    end = date(2026, 6, 26)
+    dates = _business_days(400, end)
+    rising = [(day, 100.0 + index * 0.2) for index, day in enumerate(dates)]
+    prices = {"SMH": rising, "QQQ": rising, "SPY": rising}
+    args = (prices, [(end, 20.0)], [(day, 4.0) for day in dates])
+    config = deepcopy(ess.rms.DEFAULT_CONFIG)
+    names = config["tickers"]["hyperscalers"]
+    tail = (rising, [(day, 20.0) for day in dates], dates, config)
+
+    def adverse(effective: date) -> list[dict]:
+        return [{
+            "effective_date": effective,
+            "f1_score": 100.0,
+            "f3_score": 100.0,
+            "capex": dict.fromkeys(names, "cutting"),
+            "good_news_stock_down": "yes",
+            "fetched_at": "2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00",
+        }]
+
+    bare = ess._axis_rows(*args, *tail, None)
+    observed = ess._axis_rows(*args, *tail, adverse(dates[-20]))
+
+    latest, early = dates[-1], dates[-90]
+    assert observed[latest]["warning"] == bare[latest]["warning"]
+    assert observed[latest]["fundamental_state"] == "adverse"
+    assert bare[latest]["fundamental_state"] == "unknown"
+
+    # Sessions before the effective date stay unknown, so a rebuild cannot stamp
+    # today's reading onto history.
+    assert observed[early]["fundamental_state"] == "unknown"
+
+    # The confluence rule keeps only crossings the channel agrees with, and the
+    # fundamental rule fires on the transition into adverse -- both rising-edge,
+    # so both stay comparable with the market rows.
+    adverse_alarms = ess.adverse_episodes(observed, dates, 0)
+    assert [dates[i] for i in adverse_alarms] == [dates[-20]]
+    assert ess.adverse_episodes(bare, dates, 0) == []
+    assert ess.confluence_episodes([dates.index(early), dates.index(latest)], observed, dates) == [
+        dates.index(latest)
+    ]
+
+
 def test_breadth_from_fixed_closes_and_tapered_divergence():
     dates = _days(10)
     closes_by_symbol = {

tests/unit/test_regime_monitor.py

@@ -28,7 +28,7 @@ from app.services.regime_monitor_service import (
     drawdown_pct,
     f2_credit_spreads,
     current_observation,
-    fundamental_overlay,
+    fundamental_context,
     p1_trend_break,
     p2_death_cross,
     p3_drawdown,
@@ -40,6 +40,24 @@ from app.services.regime_monitor_service import (
 )
 
 
+async def _no_observations(_db):
+    return []
+
+
+async def _skip_recording(_db, _observation):
+    return None
+
+
+class _CommitOnlyDB:
+    """Enough session for writers that own their own transaction boundary."""
+
+    def __init__(self) -> None:
+        self.commits = 0
+
+    async def commit(self) -> None:
+        self.commits += 1
+
+
 def _dated(values: list[float], end: date = date(2026, 6, 26)) -> list[tuple[date, float]]:
     return [
         (end - timedelta(days=len(values) - 1 - index), value)
@@ -215,7 +233,7 @@ def test_score_pillars_gates_band_below_75_percent_coverage():
     assert result["band"] is None
 
 
-def test_fundamental_overlay_never_replays_before_effective_date_and_expires():
+def test_fundamental_context_never_replays_before_effective_date_and_expires():
     overrides = {
         "f1_score": 0.0,
         "f3_score": 100.0,
@@ -226,19 +244,19 @@ def test_fundamental_overlay_never_replays_before_effective_date_and_expires():
     }
     config = {**DEFAULT_CONFIG, "fundamental_staleness_days": 80}
 
-    pending = fundamental_overlay(overrides, config, date(2026, 6, 1))
+    pending = fundamental_context(overrides, config, date(2026, 6, 1))
     assert pending["pending"] is True
     assert pending["available"] is False
     assert pending["capex"] is None
     # The effective date is still reported so a pending refresh is visible.
     assert pending["effective_date"] == "2026-06-02"
 
-    live = fundamental_overlay(overrides, config, date(2026, 6, 2))
+    live = fundamental_context(overrides, config, date(2026, 6, 2))
     assert live["available"] is True
     assert live["good_news_stock_down"] == "yes"
     assert live["earnings_stress"] == 100.0
 
-    expired = fundamental_overlay(overrides, config, date(2026, 8, 22))
+    expired = fundamental_context(overrides, config, date(2026, 8, 22))
     assert expired["stale"] is True
     assert expired["available"] is False
 
@@ -263,7 +281,7 @@ def test_live_observation_is_visible_before_its_effective_date():
     config = {**DEFAULT_CONFIG, "fundamental_staleness_days": 80}
 
     before = date(2026, 6, 1)
-    record = fundamental_overlay(overrides, config, before)
+    record = fundamental_context(overrides, config, before)
     now = current_observation(overrides, config, before)
 
     # Same day, same observation: the record hides it, the live reading shows it.
@@ -314,35 +332,256 @@ def test_an_uncollected_observation_is_not_reported_as_collected():
     assert current_observation(collected, DEFAULT_CONFIG, date(2026, 8, 7))["observed"] is True
 
 
-def test_fundamentals_do_not_move_the_warning_score():
+def test_fundamental_state_never_averages_unknown_into_neutral():
-    """The v3 complaint: a maxed-out LLM read must not silently do nothing.
+    """Missing evidence must not present as evidence of normality.
 
-    It no longer feeds Warning at all, so Warning is identical either way and
+    This is the trap that mattered when the channel replaced the weighted
-    the observation is reported beside the score instead of buried in it.
+    modifier: treating ``unknown`` as a middle value would let two ``cutting``
+    reads and two ``unknown`` ones land on "neutral". A single adverse read
+    carries on partial evidence; ``unknown`` survives only when *nothing* was
+    observed.
+    """
+    names = DEFAULT_CONFIG["tickers"]["hyperscalers"]
+
+    assert rms._capex_signal(dict.fromkeys(names, "unknown"), names) == "unknown"
+    assert rms._capex_signal(dict.fromkeys(names, "raising"), names) == "supportive"
+    assert rms._capex_signal(dict.fromkeys(names, "holding"), names) == "neutral"
+
+    half_cut = {names[0]: "cutting", names[1]: "cutting", **dict.fromkeys(names[2:], "unknown")}
+    assert rms._capex_signal(half_cut, names) == "adverse"
+
+    assert rms._reaction_signal("yes") == "adverse"
+    assert rms._reaction_signal("no") == "supportive"
+    assert rms._reaction_signal("mixed") == "neutral"
+    assert rms._reaction_signal(None) == "unknown"
+
+    combine = rms.combine_fundamental_signals
+    assert combine("unknown", "unknown") == "unknown"
+    assert combine("adverse", "supportive") == "adverse"   # one adverse read carries
+    assert combine("supportive", "unknown") == "supportive"
+    assert combine("neutral", "unknown") == "neutral"
+    assert combine("supportive", "neutral") == "neutral"
+    # Nothing combines *into* unknown -- that would be inventing missing evidence.
+    assert "unknown" not in {
+        combine(a, b)
+        for a in rms.FUNDAMENTAL_STATES
+        for b in rms.FUNDAMENTAL_STATES
+        if not (a == "unknown" and b == "unknown")
+    }
+
+
+def test_fundamental_context_is_a_channel_not_a_term_in_warning():
+    """The read is reported beside the scores and never added into them.
+
+    A weighted modifier was built and reverted: with ~10 correction events and
+    almost no fundamental history, any fusion weight is a policy preference
+    presented as a measurement, and adding a slow categorical judgement to a fast
+    continuous score manufactures precision by summing unlike things.
     """
     end = date(2026, 6, 26)
     rising = [100.0 + index * 0.2 for index in range(700)]
     prices = {"SMH": _dated(rising, end), "QQQ": _dated(rising, end), "SPY": _dated(rising, end)}
     args = (prices, [(end, 20.0)], [(end - timedelta(days=i), 4.0) for i in reversed(range(100))])
     tail = (copy.deepcopy(DEFAULT_CONFIG), end, [(end, 55.0)], [(end, 20.0)], {end: 25})
+    names = DEFAULT_CONFIG["tickers"]["hyperscalers"]
 
-    quiet = _compute_index(*args, {"f1_score": None, "f3_score": None}, *tail)
+    def observed(capex_state: str, reaction: str) -> dict:
-    screaming = _compute_index(
+        return {
-        *args,
+            "capex": dict.fromkeys(names, capex_state),
-        {
+            "good_news_stock_down": reaction,
-            "f1_score": 100.0,
-            "f3_score": 100.0,
-            "capex": dict.fromkeys(DEFAULT_CONFIG["tickers"]["hyperscalers"], "cutting"),
-            "good_news_stock_down": "yes",
             "effective_date": "2026-06-01",
+            "fetched_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00+00:00",
+            "source": "openai",
+        }
+
+    unobserved = _compute_index(*args, {"f1_score": None, "f3_score": None}, *tail)
+    supportive = _compute_index(*args, observed("raising", "no"), *tail)
+    adverse = _compute_index(*args, observed("cutting", "yes"), *tail)
+
+    # Every Warning is identical: the channel is not a term in the score.
+    scores = {
+        snapshot["warning"]["score"]
+        for snapshot in (unobserved, supportive, adverse)
+    }
+    assert len(scores) == 1
+    assert {p["id"] for p in unobserved["warning"]["pillars"]} == set(WARNING_WEIGHTS)
+    # And it never touches coverage, so a missing observation cannot suppress a
+    # band or silently redistribute weight onto the technical sensors.
+    assert len({s["warning"]["coverage"] for s in (unobserved, supportive, adverse)}) == 1
+
+    assert unobserved["fundamental_context"]["state"] == "unknown"
+    assert unobserved["fundamental_context"]["evidence_quality"] == "unavailable"
+    assert supportive["fundamental_context"]["state"] == "supportive"
+    assert adverse["fundamental_context"]["state"] == "adverse"
+    assert adverse["fundamental_context"]["evidence_quality"] == "complete"
+
+
+def test_a_fresh_but_empty_observation_is_available_to_show_and_not_usable():
+    """Collected-but-determined-nothing must not count as evidence.
+
+    `available` is about timing (there is an effective, non-stale record to
+    display); `usable` is about content. An LLM run that failed to extract
+    anything produces a perfectly fresh observation that knows nothing — and if
+    that counted, repeated extraction failures would slowly accumulate study
+    exposure until the fundamental rows reported a measurable 0/8 for a channel
+    that had never seen a thing.
+    """
+    config = copy.deepcopy(DEFAULT_CONFIG)
+    names = config["tickers"]["hyperscalers"]
+    as_of = date(2026, 6, 26)
+    base = {
+        "effective_date": "2026-06-01",
+        "fetched_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00+00:00",
+        "source": "openai",
+    }
+
+    empty = fundamental_context(
+        {**base, "capex": dict.fromkeys(names, "unknown"), "good_news_stock_down": "unknown"},
+        config, as_of,
+    )
+    assert empty["state"] == "unknown"
+    assert empty["available"] is True   # there is a record, and it has a date
+    assert empty["usable"] is False     # but it says nothing
+
+    # One real signal is enough to be usable, on partial evidence.
+    partial = fundamental_context(
+        {
+            **base,
+            "capex": {names[0]: "cutting", **dict.fromkeys(names[1:], "unknown")},
+            "good_news_stock_down": "unknown",
         },
-        *tail,
+        config, as_of,
+    )
+    assert partial["state"] == "adverse"
+    assert partial["usable"] is True
+    assert partial["evidence_quality"] == "partial"
+
+    # Stale is neither available nor usable — `available` means effective *and*
+    # non-stale. What survives is `state`, which the card renders on its own
+    # (with the stale badge) so the last thing observed stays visible.
+    stale = fundamental_context(
+        {
+            **base,
+            "effective_date": "2026-01-01",
+            "capex": dict.fromkeys(names, "cutting"),
+            "good_news_stock_down": "yes",
+        },
+        config, as_of,
+    )
+    assert stale["state"] == "adverse"
+    assert stale["stale"] is True
+    assert stale["available"] is False
+    assert stale["usable"] is False
+
+    # Nothing collected at all: neither.
+    absent = fundamental_context({}, config, as_of)
+    assert (absent["available"], absent["usable"]) == (False, False)
+
+
+def test_the_live_reading_publishes_the_same_fields_as_the_record():
+    """"Same shape" has to mean the same fields, not the same ones it needs.
+
+    The frontend types both payloads as one interface, so a field present on the
+    record and missing from the live reading is an undefined at runtime that
+    TypeScript cannot catch across a trusted server boundary.
+    """
+    config = copy.deepcopy(DEFAULT_CONFIG)
+    names = config["tickers"]["hyperscalers"]
+    as_of = date(2026, 6, 26)
+    observation = {
+        "effective_date": "2026-06-01",
+        "fetched_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00+00:00",
+        "source": "openai",
+        "capex": dict.fromkeys(names, "cutting"),
+        "good_news_stock_down": "yes",
+    }
+
+    record = fundamental_context(observation, config, as_of)
+    live = current_observation(observation, config, as_of)
+    assert set(record) <= set(live)
+    assert (live["state"], live["usable"]) == ("adverse", True)
+
+    # A just-collected observation is shown but is not yet in force, so it is
+    # available to read and not yet usable as evidence.
+    pending = current_observation(
+        {**observation, "effective_date": "2026-07-01"}, config, as_of
+    )
+    assert (pending["pending"], pending["available"], pending["usable"]) == (True, True, False)
+
+    # And an extraction that determined nothing is never usable, however fresh.
+    empty = current_observation(
+        {**observation, "capex": dict.fromkeys(names, "unknown"), "good_news_stock_down": "unknown"},
+        config, as_of,
+    )
+    assert (empty["state"], empty["usable"]) == ("unknown", False)
+
+
+def test_pre_rename_snapshots_keep_their_recorded_fundamental_evidence():
+    """The rename shipped without a methodology bump, so those rows were never reseeded.
+
+    Reading only the new key would turn real observations into `unknown` and
+    silently drop historical Path colours and legitimate study exposure.
+    """
+    names = DEFAULT_CONFIG["tickers"]["hyperscalers"]
+    legacy = {
+        "methodology": rms.METHODOLOGY,
+        "date": "2026-07-01",
+        "state": {"score": 10.0, "band": "stable"},
+        "warning": {"score": 20.0, "band": "stable"},
+        "fundamental_overlay": {
+            "available": True,
+            "pending": False,
+            "stale": False,
+            "effective_date": "2026-06-20",
+            "capex": {names[0]: "cutting", **dict.fromkeys(names[1:], "raising")},
+            "good_news_stock_down": "yes",
+            "source": "openai",
+            "fetched_at": "2026-06-19T00:00:00+00:00",
+        },
+    }
+
+    parsed = rms._parse_snapshot(json.dumps(legacy))
+    context = parsed["fundamental_context"]
+    assert context["state"] == "adverse"
+    assert context["evidence_quality"] == "complete"
+    assert context["usable"] is True
+    assert context["effective_date"] == "2026-06-20"
+
+    # A pending legacy overlay carried no facts, so it stays unknown rather than
+    # inventing an observation for a session nobody had looked at.
+    blank = json.loads(json.dumps(legacy))
+    blank["fundamental_overlay"] = {"pending": True, "stale": False, "capex": None}
+    blank_context = rms._parse_snapshot(json.dumps(blank))["fundamental_context"]
+    assert blank_context["state"] == "unknown"
+    assert blank_context["evidence_quality"] == "unavailable"
+    assert blank_context["usable"] is False
+
+    # A row already carrying the new key is left exactly as written.
+    modern = json.loads(json.dumps(legacy))
+    modern["fundamental_context"] = {"state": "supportive", "usable": True}
+    assert rms._parse_snapshot(json.dumps(modern))["fundamental_context"]["state"] == "supportive"
+
+
+def test_evidence_quality_ranks_what_an_operator_needs_first():
+    names = DEFAULT_CONFIG["tickers"]["hyperscalers"]
+    config = copy.deepcopy(DEFAULT_CONFIG)
+    full = dict.fromkeys(names, "raising")
+    partial = {names[0]: "raising", **dict.fromkeys(names[1:], "unknown")}
+
+    def quality(capex, reaction, *, observed=True, stale=False, source="openai"):
+        return rms._evidence_quality(
+            capex, reaction, names, observed=observed, stale=stale, source=source
         )
 
-    assert quiet["warning"]["score"] == screaming["warning"]["score"]
+    assert quality(full, "no") == "complete"
-    assert {p["id"] for p in quiet["warning"]["pillars"]} == set(WARNING_WEIGHTS)
+    assert quality(partial, "no") == "partial"
-    assert screaming["fundamental_overlay"]["available"] is True
+    assert quality(full, None) == "partial"          # reaction unknown
-    assert screaming["fundamental_overlay"]["capex_stress"] == 100.0
+    assert quality(full, "no", source="manual") == "manual"
+    assert quality(full, "no", stale=True) == "stale"
+    # Nothing collected outranks every other grade.
+    assert quality(full, "no", observed=False, stale=True, source="manual") == "unavailable"
+    assert set(rms.EVIDENCE_QUALITY) >= {quality(full, "no"), quality(partial, "no")}
+    assert config["tickers"]["hyperscalers"] == names
 
 
 def test_capex_score_separates_holding_from_raising():
@@ -375,10 +614,12 @@ async def test_legacy_numeric_fundamentals_do_not_leak_into_v4(monkeypatch):
 
     result = await rms.get_fundamental_overrides(object())
 
-    assert result["methodology"] == "v4"
+    assert result["methodology"] == rms.METHODOLOGY
     assert result["f1_score"] is None
     assert result["f3_score"] is None
-    assert result["good_news_stock_down"] == "mixed"
+    # Not "mixed": an unreadable blob is an absence of an observation, and
+    # "mixed" is a genuinely observed mixed reaction.
+    assert result["good_news_stock_down"] == "unknown"
 
 
 @pytest.mark.asyncio
@@ -442,11 +683,12 @@ async def test_unlock_does_not_redate_a_fundamental_observation(monkeypatch):
 
     async def fake_update(_db, _key, value):
         saved.update(json.loads(value))
+        return None
 
     monkeypatch.setattr(rms, "get_fundamental_overrides", fake_get)
-    monkeypatch.setattr(rms, "update_setting", fake_update)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(rms.settings_store, "upsert_setting", fake_update)
 
-    result = await rms.set_fundamental_overrides(object(), locked=False)
+    result = await rms.set_fundamental_overrides(_CommitOnlyDB(), locked=False)
 
     assert result["locked"] is False
     assert result["fetched_at"] == stored["fetched_at"]
@@ -476,14 +718,22 @@ async def test_manual_fundamentals_are_categorical_and_derived(monkeypatch):
 
     async def fake_update(_db, _key, value):
         saved.update(json.loads(value))
+        return None
 
     monkeypatch.setattr(rms, "get_fundamental_overrides", fake_get)
-    monkeypatch.setattr(rms, "update_setting", fake_update)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(rms.settings_store, "upsert_setting", fake_update)
+    # A manual save now also appends to the point-in-time series.
+    monkeypatch.setattr(rms, "record_fundamental_observation", _skip_recording)
     capex = {names[0]: "cutting", **dict.fromkeys(names[1:], "holding")}
 
+    db = _CommitOnlyDB()
     result = await rms.set_fundamental_overrides(
-        object(), capex=capex, good_news_stock_down="mixed"
+        db, capex=capex, good_news_stock_down="mixed"
     )
+    # The series row is a second write after update_setting's own commit, so the
+    # writer has to take one -- record_fundamental_observation deliberately does
+    # not, or it would steal update_regime_monitor's transaction boundary.
+    assert db.commits == 1
 
     assert result["f1_score"] == 62.5  # one cutting (100) + three holding (50)
     assert result["f3_score"] is None
@@ -498,7 +748,9 @@ async def test_manual_fundamentals_are_categorical_and_derived(monkeypatch):
 async def test_prior_snapshot_is_immutable_without_explicit_rebuild(db_session):
     snapshot_date = date(2026, 6, 26)
     first = {
-        "methodology": "v4",
+        # Must be the *current* methodology: a foreign row does not parse, so it
+        # reads as absent and the rewrite guard never comes into play.
+        "methodology": rms.METHODOLOGY,
         "date": snapshot_date.isoformat(),
         "state": {"score": 10.0, "band": "stable"},
         "warning": {"score": 20.0, "band": "stable"},
@@ -571,6 +823,8 @@ async def test_routine_can_refresh_latest_trading_session_after_civil_day_rolls(
     monkeypatch.setattr(rms.breadth_service, "compute_breadth_details", fake_breadth)
     monkeypatch.setattr(rms, "_latest_snapshot_row", fake_latest)
     monkeypatch.setattr(rms, "_upsert_snapshot", fake_upsert)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(rms, "get_fundamental_observations", _no_observations)
+    monkeypatch.setattr(rms, "record_fundamental_observation", _skip_recording)
 
     result = await rms.update_regime_monitor(FakeDB())
 
@@ -636,6 +890,8 @@ async def test_a_stale_sensor_revision_reseeds_stored_history(
         ("_fetch_fred_series", fake_fred),
         ("_latest_snapshot_row", fake_latest),
         ("_upsert_snapshot", fake_upsert),
+        ("get_fundamental_observations", _no_observations),
+        ("record_fundamental_observation", _skip_recording),
     ):
         monkeypatch.setattr(rms, name, value)
     monkeypatch.setattr(rms.breadth_service, "compute_breadth_details", fake_breadth)
@@ -722,7 +978,7 @@ def test_compute_index_uses_one_max_price_vote_and_has_no_combined_score():
     price = next(p for p in result["state"]["pillars"] if p["id"] == "price")
     sensor_scores = [sensor["score"] for sensor in price["sensors"] if sensor["score"] is not None]
     assert price["score"] == max(sensor_scores)
-    assert result["methodology"] == "v4"
+    assert result["methodology"] == rms.METHODOLOGY
     assert "combined" not in result
     assert result["basket"]["members_available"] == 25
 

tests/unit/test_regime_quadrant_alert.py

@@ -5,10 +5,16 @@ different realized ranges -- Warning never exceeded 64.9 in the 408 calibration
 sessions, so a shared 60 left the whole upper half of that axis unreachable.
 """
 
+import pytest
+
+from app.services import alert_service
 from app.services.alert_service import (
+    CONFLUENCE_TYPE,
+    FUND_TYPE,
     QUAD_X_DIV,
     QUAD_Y_DIV,
     _classify_quadrant,
+    _collect_regime_fundamental,
     _parse_quadrant_log_key,
     _quadrant_log_key,
 )
@@ -48,3 +54,140 @@ def test_quadrant_key_carries_basket_hash_and_parses_legacy_keys():
     assert _parse_quadrant_log_key(key) == ("abc123", "3", 32.4, 54.6)
     assert _parse_quadrant_log_key("3:32.4:54.6") == (None, "3", 32.4, 54.6)
     assert _parse_quadrant_log_key("3") == (None, "3", None, None)
+
+
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Fundamental-context and confluence alerts
+# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
+
+def _monitor(
+    warning_score: float, state: str, *, coverage: float = 100.0, usable: bool = True
+) -> dict:
+    return {
+        "available": True,
+        "warning": {"score": warning_score, "coverage": coverage},
+        "fundamental_context": {
+            "state": state,
+            "evidence_quality": "complete" if usable else "stale",
+            # The state survives going stale so the card can still show it, and
+            # a failed extraction is fresh but knows nothing; `usable` is what
+            # says whether it may still confirm anything.
+            "available": usable,
+            "usable": usable,
+        },
+        "data_quality": {"is_fresh": True},
+        "quadrant_config": {"warning_divider": QUAD_Y_DIV},
+    }
+
+
+class _LogSpyDB:
+    """Records what would be logged; returns a canned "last logged key"."""
+
+    def __init__(self, last: dict[str, str | None]) -> None:
+        self.last = last
+        self.logged: list[tuple[str, str]] = []
+
+
+@pytest.fixture
+def patched(monkeypatch):
+    def apply(data: dict, last: dict[str, str | None]):
+        db = _LogSpyDB(last)
+
+        async def fake_monitor(_db):
+            return data
+
+        async def fake_last(_db, alert_type):
+            return db.last.get(alert_type)
+
+        def fake_log(_db, alert_type, key, value=None):
+            db.logged.append((alert_type, key))
+
+        import app.services.regime_monitor_service as rms
+
+        monkeypatch.setattr(rms, "get_regime_monitor", fake_monitor)
+        monkeypatch.setattr(alert_service, "_last_logged_key", fake_last)
+        monkeypatch.setattr(alert_service, "_log_alert", fake_log)
+        return db
+
+    return apply
+
+
+@pytest.mark.asyncio
+async def test_first_run_seeds_both_channels_without_alerting(patched):
+    db = patched(_monitor(60.0, "adverse"), {FUND_TYPE: None, CONFLUENCE_TYPE: None})
+    assert await _collect_regime_fundamental(db) == []
+    assert dict(db.logged) == {FUND_TYPE: "adverse", CONFLUENCE_TYPE: "yes"}
+
+
+@pytest.mark.asyncio
+async def test_fundamental_change_and_confluence_are_separate_messages(patched):
+    db = patched(_monitor(60.0, "adverse"), {FUND_TYPE: "neutral", CONFLUENCE_TYPE: "no"})
+    out = await _collect_regime_fundamental(db)
+
+    assert [alert_type for alert_type, _, _ in out] == [FUND_TYPE, CONFLUENCE_TYPE]
+    assert "neutral → adverse" in out[0][2]
+    assert "Confluence" in out[1][2]
+    # Neither message reports a fused score; they name which channel moved.
+    assert "not a score" in out[0][2]
+
+
+@pytest.mark.asyncio
+async def test_unknown_never_alerts(patched):
+    """Absence of evidence is not a change in the evidence."""
+    db = patched(_monitor(60.0, "unknown"), {FUND_TYPE: "neutral", CONFLUENCE_TYPE: "no"})
+    assert await _collect_regime_fundamental(db) == []
+
+
+@pytest.mark.asyncio
+async def test_adverse_alone_is_not_confluence(patched):
+    """A calm tape with adverse fundamentals is a context change, not confluence."""
+    db = patched(_monitor(10.0, "adverse"), {FUND_TYPE: "neutral", CONFLUENCE_TYPE: "no"})
+    out = await _collect_regime_fundamental(db)
+    assert [alert_type for alert_type, _, _ in out] == [FUND_TYPE]
+
+
+@pytest.mark.asyncio
+async def test_leaving_confluence_rebaselines_quietly(patched):
+    db = patched(_monitor(10.0, "neutral"), {FUND_TYPE: "neutral", CONFLUENCE_TYPE: "yes"})
+    assert await _collect_regime_fundamental(db) == []
+    assert (CONFLUENCE_TYPE, "no") in db.logged
+
+
+@pytest.mark.asyncio
+async def test_low_coverage_or_stale_inputs_stay_quiet(patched):
+    thin = _monitor(60.0, "adverse", coverage=50.0)
+    assert await _collect_regime_fundamental(
+        patched(thin, {FUND_TYPE: "neutral", CONFLUENCE_TYPE: "no"})
+    ) == []
+
+    stale = _monitor(60.0, "adverse")
+    stale["data_quality"]["is_fresh"] = False
+    assert await _collect_regime_fundamental(
+        patched(stale, {FUND_TYPE: "neutral", CONFLUENCE_TYPE: "no"})
+    ) == []
+
+
+@pytest.mark.asyncio
+async def test_a_stale_observation_cannot_confirm_a_new_crossing(patched):
+    """The state is kept for display, but it stops being evidence.
+
+    Without this, one adverse read corroborates every Warning crossing for the
+    rest of time — the strongest claim the channel makes, from the data with the
+    least right to make it.
+    """
+    stale = _monitor(60.0, "adverse", usable=False)
+    db = patched(stale, {FUND_TYPE: "adverse", CONFLUENCE_TYPE: "no"})
+    assert await _collect_regime_fundamental(db) == []
+    # It also rebaselines to "no", so recollecting the observation re-arms it.
+    assert (CONFLUENCE_TYPE, "no") not in db.logged  # already "no"; nothing to log
+
+    fresh = _monitor(60.0, "adverse", usable=True)
+    db2 = patched(fresh, {FUND_TYPE: "adverse", CONFLUENCE_TYPE: "no"})
+    out = await _collect_regime_fundamental(db2)
+    assert [alert_type for alert_type, _, _ in out] == [CONFLUENCE_TYPE]
+
+
+@pytest.mark.asyncio
+async def test_a_stale_state_change_does_not_alert(patched):
+    db = patched(_monitor(10.0, "adverse", usable=False), {FUND_TYPE: "neutral", CONFLUENCE_TYPE: "no"})
+    assert await _collect_regime_fundamental(db) == []