diff --git a/reports/backtest-sr-range-residual-train-rewrite_range504_structural_legacy_primary.json b/reports/backtest-sr-range-residual-train-rewrite_range504_structural_legacy_primary.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fcb43ee --- /dev/null +++ b/reports/backtest-sr-range-residual-train-rewrite_range504_structural_legacy_primary.json @@ -0,0 +1,250680 @@ +{ + "generated_at": "2026-07-13T07:09:12.424801+00:00", + "tickers": 506, + "candidates": 119258, + "qualified": 136, + "params": { + "step_days": 5, + "horizon_days": 30, + "min_lookback": 60, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, + "sr_variant": "rewrite_range504_structural_legacy_primary", + "range_factor_lookback": 504, + "range_factor_min_log": 1.0, + "range_factor_min_ratio": 2.7183, + "entry_start": null, + "entry_end": "2024-06-30" + }, + "activation": { + "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, + "min_rr": 2.0, + "min_confidence": 0.0, + "require_high_conviction": false, + "exclude_conflicts": false, + "exclude_neutral": true + }, + 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If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.", + "time_exit_sweep": [ + { + "hold_days": 5, + "total": 136, + "wins": 77, + "win_rate": 56.6, + "avg_r": 0.154, + "total_r": 20.89, + "net_avg_r": 0.116, + "net_total_r": 15.83, + "best_r": 3.65, + "worst_r": -3.12, + "avg_hold_days": 4.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0261, + "median_net_r": 0.078, + "profit_factor": 1.32, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.024 + }, + { + "hold_days": 10, + "total": 136, + "wins": 76, + "win_rate": 55.9, + "avg_r": 0.519, + "total_r": 70.62, + "net_avg_r": 0.482, + "net_total_r": 65.56, + "best_r": 5.76, + "worst_r": -3.12, + "avg_hold_days": 7.8, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0618, + "median_net_r": 0.131, + "profit_factor": 2.02, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.257 + }, + { + "hold_days": 21, + "total": 136, + "wins": 66, + "win_rate": 48.5, + "avg_r": 0.909, + "total_r": 123.56, + "net_avg_r": 0.871, + "net_total_r": 118.5, + "best_r": 9.01, + "worst_r": -3.12, + "avg_hold_days": 14.2, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0615, + "median_net_r": -0.395, + "profit_factor": 2.55, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.565 + }, + { + "hold_days": 30, + "total": 136, + "wins": 55, + "win_rate": 40.4, + "avg_r": 1.034, + "total_r": 140.66, + "net_avg_r": 0.997, + "net_total_r": 135.6, + "best_r": 9.85, + "worst_r": -3.12, + "avg_hold_days": 18.6, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0537, + "median_net_r": -1.026, + "profit_factor": 2.53, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.59 + } + ], + "portfolio_sim": { + "params": { + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "notional_cap_pct": 20.0, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, + "hold_days": 30 + }, + "policies": [ + { + "policy": "target", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 13610.36, + "total_return_pct": 36.1, + "cagr_pct": 16.4, + "max_drawdown_pct": 11.6, + "sharpe": 1.25, + "trades": 92, + "win_rate": 44.6, + "avg_trade_pnl": 39.24, + "best_trade_r": 4.49, + "worst_trade_r": -2.88, + "best_trade_pnl": 454.37, + "worst_trade_pnl": -294.77, + "avg_hold_days": 10.4, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 49, + "target": 37, + "time": 6 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -1.7 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 27.4 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 8.7 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + }, + { + "policy": "hold", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 16869.88, + "total_return_pct": 68.7, + "cagr_pct": 29.4, + "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2, + "sharpe": 1.55, + "trades": 76, + "win_rate": 39.5, + "avg_trade_pnl": 90.39, + "best_trade_r": 9.09, + "worst_trade_r": -2.88, + "best_trade_pnl": 1081.09, + "worst_trade_pnl": -345.26, + "avg_hold_days": 17.6, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 44, + "time": 32 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -3.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 52.1 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 14.8 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + } + ], + "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends." + }, + "strategy_variants": { + "variants": [ + { + "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", + "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 16869.88, + "total_return_pct": 68.7, + "cagr_pct": 29.4, + "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2, + "sharpe": 1.55, + "trades": 76, + "win_rate": 39.5, + "avg_trade_pnl": 90.39, + "best_trade_r": 9.09, + "worst_trade_r": -2.88, + "best_trade_pnl": 1081.09, + "worst_trade_pnl": -345.26, + "avg_hold_days": 17.6, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 44, + "time": 32 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -3.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 52.1 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 14.8 + } + 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"label": "Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10", + "ranking": "residual_low_vol_blend", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 15847.68, + "total_return_pct": 58.5, + "cagr_pct": 25.4, + "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2, + "sharpe": 1.44, + "trades": 76, + "win_rate": 39.5, + "avg_trade_pnl": 76.94, + "best_trade_r": 9.09, + "worst_trade_r": -2.88, + "best_trade_pnl": 968.56, + "worst_trade_pnl": -342.83, + "avg_hold_days": 17.6, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 44, + "time": 32 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -3.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 51.0 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 8.6 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_highvol50_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 50 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual+high_vol_filter", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + }, + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 50.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 16869.88, + "total_return_pct": 68.7, + "cagr_pct": 29.4, + "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2, + "sharpe": 1.55, + "trades": 76, + "win_rate": 39.5, + "avg_trade_pnl": 90.39, + "best_trade_r": 9.09, + "worst_trade_r": -2.88, + "best_trade_pnl": 1081.09, + "worst_trade_pnl": -345.26, + "avg_hold_days": 17.6, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 44, + "time": 32 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -3.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 52.1 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 14.8 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_highvol70_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual+high_vol_filter", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + }, + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 70.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 16996.95, + "total_return_pct": 70.0, + "cagr_pct": 29.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2, + "sharpe": 1.58, + "trades": 75, + "win_rate": 40.0, + "avg_trade_pnl": 93.29, + "best_trade_r": 9.09, + "worst_trade_r": -2.88, + "best_trade_pnl": 1097.8, + "worst_trade_pnl": -345.26, + "avg_hold_days": 17.8, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 43, + "time": 32 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -3.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 52.1 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 15.7 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend90_10_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 90/10 blend / max 10", + "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_90_10", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 16869.76, + "total_return_pct": 68.7, + "cagr_pct": 29.4, + "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2, + "sharpe": 1.55, + "trades": 76, + "win_rate": 39.5, + "avg_trade_pnl": 90.39, + "best_trade_r": 9.09, + "worst_trade_r": -2.88, + "best_trade_pnl": 1081.08, + "worst_trade_pnl": -345.26, + "avg_hold_days": 17.6, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 44, + "time": 32 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -3.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 52.1 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 14.8 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 80/20 blend / max 10", + "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_80_20", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 16898.4, + "total_return_pct": 69.0, + "cagr_pct": 29.5, + "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2, + "sharpe": 1.55, + "trades": 74, + "win_rate": 39.2, + "avg_trade_pnl": 93.22, + "best_trade_r": 9.09, + "worst_trade_r": -2.88, + "best_trade_pnl": 1099.41, + "worst_trade_pnl": -351.11, + "avg_hold_days": 18.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 43, + "time": 31 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -3.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 54.6 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 13.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70/30 blend / max 10", + "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_70_30", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 16898.09, + "total_return_pct": 69.0, + "cagr_pct": 29.5, + "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2, + "sharpe": 1.55, + "trades": 74, + "win_rate": 39.2, + "avg_trade_pnl": 93.22, + "best_trade_r": 9.09, + "worst_trade_r": -2.88, + "best_trade_pnl": 1099.39, + "worst_trade_pnl": -351.18, + "avg_hold_days": 18.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 43, + "time": 31 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -3.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 54.6 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 13.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend60_40_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 60/40 blend / max 10", + "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_60_40", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 16402.12, + "total_return_pct": 64.0, + "cagr_pct": 27.6, + "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2, + "sharpe": 1.47, + "trades": 73, + "win_rate": 38.4, + "avg_trade_pnl": 87.7, + "best_trade_r": 9.09, + "worst_trade_r": -2.88, + "best_trade_pnl": 1067.09, + "worst_trade_pnl": -351.18, + "avg_hold_days": 18.0, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 43, + "time": 30 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -3.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 50.2 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 13.0 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + }, + { + "variant": "highvol70_fixed10", + "label": "High-vol 70 / max 10", + "ranking": "high_vol", + "cutoff": 70.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 70.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 14995.53, + "total_return_pct": 50.0, + "cagr_pct": 18.1, + "max_drawdown_pct": 27.2, + "sharpe": 0.74, + "trades": 200, + "win_rate": 32.0, + "avg_trade_pnl": 24.98, + "best_trade_r": 10.01, + "worst_trade_r": -3.97, + "best_trade_pnl": 1124.18, + "worst_trade_pnl": -174.51, + "avg_hold_days": 16.0, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 131, + "time": 69 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 1, + "spy_return_pct": 19.0, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -25.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 101.9 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": -0.3 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-03-03", + "end_date": "2024-08-07" + }, + { + "variant": "highvol80_fixed10", + "label": "High-vol 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "high_vol", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 14760.77, + "total_return_pct": 47.6, + "cagr_pct": 17.4, + "max_drawdown_pct": 26.5, + "sharpe": 0.72, + "trades": 197, + "win_rate": 32.0, + "avg_trade_pnl": 24.17, + "best_trade_r": 10.01, + "worst_trade_r": -3.97, + "best_trade_pnl": 1142.78, + "worst_trade_pnl": -162.92, + "avg_hold_days": 16.1, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 129, + "time": 68 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 1, + "spy_return_pct": 19.0, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -24.7 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 102.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": -3.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-03-03", + "end_date": "2024-08-07" + }, + { + "variant": "highvol90_fixed10", + "label": "High-vol 90 / max 10", + "ranking": "high_vol", + "cutoff": 90.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 90.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 16077.47, + "total_return_pct": 60.8, + "cagr_pct": 21.6, + "max_drawdown_pct": 25.2, + "sharpe": 0.84, + "trades": 181, + "win_rate": 33.7, + "avg_trade_pnl": 33.58, + "best_trade_r": 10.01, + "worst_trade_r": -3.97, + "best_trade_pnl": 1251.72, + "worst_trade_pnl": -193.93, + "avg_hold_days": 17.1, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 116, + "time": 65 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 19.0, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -23.1 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 119.2 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": -4.6 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-03-03", + "end_date": "2024-08-07" + } + ], + "note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays." + }, + "exit_policy_variants": { + "variants": [ + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "hold", + "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop", + "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 16898.4, + "total_return_pct": 69.0, + "cagr_pct": 29.5, + "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2, + "sharpe": 1.55, + "trades": 74, + "win_rate": 39.2, + "avg_trade_pnl": 93.22, + "best_trade_r": 9.09, + "worst_trade_r": -2.88, + "best_trade_pnl": 1099.41, + "worst_trade_pnl": -351.11, + "avg_hold_days": 18.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 43, + "time": 31 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -3.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 54.6 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 13.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "sma50", + "label": "80/20 entry + SMA50 break", + "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below its 50-day SMA.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 19020.34, + "total_return_pct": 90.2, + "cagr_pct": 37.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 9.6, + "sharpe": 1.97, + "trades": 84, + "win_rate": 39.3, + "avg_trade_pnl": 107.39, + "best_trade_r": 9.85, + "worst_trade_r": -1.12, + "best_trade_pnl": 1274.78, + "worst_trade_pnl": -207.46, + "avg_hold_days": 14.0, + "exit_reasons": { + "sma50": 32, + "stop": 25, + "time": 27 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -4.8 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 73.1 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 15.4 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "low20", + "label": "80/20 entry + 20-day low break", + "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below the prior 20-day low.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 16980.39, + "total_return_pct": 69.8, + "cagr_pct": 29.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 13.0, + "sharpe": 1.57, + "trades": 75, + "win_rate": 38.7, + "avg_trade_pnl": 93.07, + "best_trade_r": 9.09, + "worst_trade_r": -2.88, + "best_trade_pnl": 1115.04, + "worst_trade_pnl": -350.48, + "avg_hold_days": 17.8, + "exit_reasons": { + "low20": 5, + "stop": 41, + "time": 29 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -3.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 53.1 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 14.8 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "technical40", + "label": "80/20 entry + technical score < 40", + "description": "Exit at the close when the price-derived technical score deteriorates below 40.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 16898.4, + "total_return_pct": 69.0, + "cagr_pct": 29.5, + "max_drawdown_pct": 13.2, + "sharpe": 1.55, + "trades": 74, + "win_rate": 39.2, + "avg_trade_pnl": 93.22, + "best_trade_r": 9.09, + "worst_trade_r": -2.88, + "best_trade_pnl": 1099.41, + "worst_trade_pnl": -351.11, + "avg_hold_days": 18.2, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 43, + "time": 31 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -3.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 54.6 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 13.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "atr_trail3", + "label": "80/20 entry + 3x ATR trailing stop", + "description": "Trail the stop upward to highest close minus 3 ATR, evaluated from prior data.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 17407.93, + "total_return_pct": 74.1, + "cagr_pct": 31.4, + "max_drawdown_pct": 13.7, + "sharpe": 1.69, + "trades": 79, + "win_rate": 43.0, + "avg_trade_pnl": 93.77, + "best_trade_r": 9.09, + "worst_trade_r": -2.88, + "best_trade_pnl": 1159.06, + "worst_trade_pnl": -356.82, + "avg_hold_days": 16.4, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 33, + "time": 19, + "trailing_stop": 27 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -3.4 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 57.1 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 14.7 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + } + ], + "note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline." + }, + "portfolio_monitor": { + "production_strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", + "strategies": [ + { + "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold", + "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold", + "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.", + "is_production": false + }, + { + "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold", + "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold", + "description": "Promoted entry candidate before adding the ATR trailing exit.", + "is_production": false + }, + { + "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", + "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail", + "description": "The live strategy: production activation gate and Admin exit policy as currently configured, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank.", + "is_production": true + } + ], + "lookbacks": [ + { + "lookback": "6m", + "label": "6 months" + }, + { + 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30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).", + "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.", + "recommendation": { + "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.", + "items": [ + { + "topic": "production", + "text": "Production monitor (All history): +31.4% CAGR, Sharpe 1.69, max drawdown -13.7%." + }, + { + "topic": "exit", + "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+1.00R net/trade vs +0.42R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +29.4% vs +16.4% CAGR at similar drawdown." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the confidence floor (worth +0.53R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.69R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the NEUTRAL exclusion (worth +0.51R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff", + "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 80 has the best per-trade net (+0.42R over 136 setups)." + }, + { + "topic": "benchmark", + "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +29.2 points (+68.7% vs +39.5%), max drawdown \u221213.2%." + }, + { + "topic": "robustness", + "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.59R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers." + } + ], + "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does." + }, + "research_recommendation": { + "items": [ + { + "topic": "capacity_15", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 1.55 vs 1.55, CAGR +29.4% vs +29.4%, skipped 0 vs 0." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff_90", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 0.61 vs 1.55, drawdown 12.0% vs 13.2%, CAGR +8.2% vs +29.4%." + }, + { + "topic": "low_vol_overlay", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10 Sharpe 1.44 vs 1.55, drawdown 13.2% vs 13.2%, CAGR +25.4% vs +29.4%." + }, + { + "topic": "high_vol_overlay", + "candidate": true, + "text": "High-vol overlay is a promotion candidate: Residual 80 + high-vol 70 / max 10 Sharpe 1.58 vs 1.55, drawdown 13.2% vs 13.2%, CAGR +29.8% vs +29.4%." + } + ], + "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only." + } +} diff --git a/reports/backtest-sr-range-residual-train-rewrite_range504_structural_primary2.json b/reports/backtest-sr-range-residual-train-rewrite_range504_structural_primary2.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..c00244f --- /dev/null +++ b/reports/backtest-sr-range-residual-train-rewrite_range504_structural_primary2.json @@ -0,0 +1,250733 @@ +{ + "generated_at": "2026-07-13T07:10:45.033408+00:00", + "tickers": 506, + "candidates": 119258, + "qualified": 297, + "params": { + "step_days": 5, + "horizon_days": 30, + "min_lookback": 60, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, + "sr_variant": "rewrite_range504_structural_primary2", + "range_factor_lookback": 504, + "range_factor_min_log": 1.0, + "range_factor_min_ratio": 2.7183, + "entry_start": null, + "entry_end": "2024-06-30" + }, + "activation": { + "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0, + "min_rr": 2.0, + "min_confidence": 0.0, + "require_high_conviction": false, + "exclude_conflicts": false, + 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444.78, + "best_r": 4.14, + "worst_r": -6.02, + "avg_hold_days": 8.7, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0066, + "median_net_r": -1.021, + "profit_factor": 1.1, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.078, + "hold_days": 30, + "hold_avg_r": 0.417, + "hold_net_avg_r": 0.366, + "hold_total_r": 3247.74 + } + ], + "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.", + "time_exit_sweep": [ + { + "hold_days": 5, + "total": 297, + "wins": 167, + "win_rate": 56.2, + "avg_r": 0.176, + "total_r": 52.41, + "net_avg_r": 0.141, + "net_total_r": 41.82, + "best_r": 3.65, + "worst_r": -3.12, + "avg_hold_days": 4.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.031, + "median_net_r": 0.041, + "profit_factor": 1.41, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.011 + }, + { + "hold_days": 10, + "total": 297, + "wins": 160, + "win_rate": 53.9, + "avg_r": 0.43, + "total_r": 127.56, + "net_avg_r": 0.394, + "net_total_r": 116.97, + "best_r": 5.76, + "worst_r": -3.12, + "avg_hold_days": 8.0, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0494, + "median_net_r": 0.117, + "profit_factor": 1.87, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.192 + }, + { + "hold_days": 21, + "total": 297, + "wins": 135, + "win_rate": 45.5, + "avg_r": 0.878, + "total_r": 260.62, + "net_avg_r": 0.842, + "net_total_r": 250.03, + "best_r": 13.71, + "worst_r": -3.12, + "avg_hold_days": 14.2, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0593, + "median_net_r": -0.646, + "profit_factor": 2.5, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.483 + }, + { + "hold_days": 30, + "total": 297, + "wins": 120, + "win_rate": 40.4, + "avg_r": 1.056, + "total_r": 313.66, + "net_avg_r": 1.02, + "net_total_r": 303.07, + "best_r": 27.38, + "worst_r": -3.12, + "avg_hold_days": 18.5, + "net_r_per_day": 0.0552, + "median_net_r": -1.024, + "profit_factor": 2.63, + "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.55 + } + ], + "portfolio_sim": { + "params": { + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "notional_cap_pct": 20.0, + "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1, + "hold_days": 30 + }, + "policies": [ + { + "policy": "target", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 14591.11, + "total_return_pct": 45.9, + "cagr_pct": 20.4, + "max_drawdown_pct": 19.3, + "sharpe": 1.13, + "trades": 141, + "win_rate": 41.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 32.56, + "best_trade_r": 4.49, + "worst_trade_r": -2.69, + "best_trade_pnl": 488.13, + "worst_trade_pnl": -159.92, + "avg_hold_days": 12.3, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 77, + "target": 53, + "time": 11 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -1.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 29.6 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 14.4 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + }, + { + "policy": "hold", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 14912.71, + "total_return_pct": 49.1, + "cagr_pct": 21.7, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.4, + "sharpe": 1.03, + "trades": 106, + "win_rate": 34.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 46.35, + "best_trade_r": 7.79, + "worst_trade_r": -1.35, + "best_trade_pnl": 981.32, + "worst_trade_pnl": -158.79, + "avg_hold_days": 18.4, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 61, + "time": 45 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -4.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 39.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 12.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + } + ], + "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends." + }, + "strategy_variants": { + "variants": [ + { + "variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", + "label": "Production residual 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 14912.71, + "total_return_pct": 49.1, + "cagr_pct": 21.7, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.4, + "sharpe": 1.03, + "trades": 106, + "win_rate": 34.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 46.35, + "best_trade_r": 7.79, + "worst_trade_r": -1.35, + "best_trade_pnl": 981.32, + "worst_trade_pnl": -158.79, + "avg_hold_days": 18.4, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 61, + "time": 45 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -4.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 39.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 12.1 + } + 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"residual80_lowvol50_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol 50 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual+low_vol_filter", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + }, + { + "percentile_key": "low_vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 50.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 9923.65, + "total_return_pct": -0.8, + "cagr_pct": null, + "max_drawdown_pct": 0.7, + "sharpe": -2.9, + "trades": 1, + "win_rate": 0.0, + "avg_trade_pnl": -76.35, + "best_trade_r": -1.0, + "worst_trade_r": -1.0, + "best_trade_pnl": -76.35, + "worst_trade_pnl": -76.35, + "avg_hold_days": 1.0, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 1 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 6.0, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": -0.7 + } + ], + "start_date": "2024-05-24", + "end_date": "2024-07-10" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_lowvol_blend_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10", + "ranking": "residual_low_vol_blend", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 14235.33, + "total_return_pct": 42.4, + "cagr_pct": 19.0, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.4, + "sharpe": 0.94, + "trades": 107, + "win_rate": 34.6, + "avg_trade_pnl": 39.58, + "best_trade_r": 7.79, + "worst_trade_r": -1.35, + "best_trade_pnl": 975.12, + "worst_trade_pnl": -151.58, + "avg_hold_days": 18.3, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 63, + "time": 44 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -4.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 46.6 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 1.7 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_highvol50_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 50 / max 10", + "ranking": "residual+high_vol_filter", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + }, + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 50.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 14912.71, + "total_return_pct": 49.1, + "cagr_pct": 21.7, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.4, + "sharpe": 1.03, + "trades": 106, + "win_rate": 34.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 46.35, + "best_trade_r": 7.79, + "worst_trade_r": -1.35, + "best_trade_pnl": 981.32, + "worst_trade_pnl": -158.79, + "avg_hold_days": 18.4, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 61, + "time": 45 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -4.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 39.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 12.1 + } + ], + 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-4.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 39.6 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 11.6 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 80/20 blend / max 10", + "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_80_20", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 15615.79, + "total_return_pct": 56.2, + "cagr_pct": 24.5, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.4, + "sharpe": 1.11, + "trades": 106, + "win_rate": 34.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 52.98, + "best_trade_r": 9.06, + "worst_trade_r": -1.35, + "best_trade_pnl": 1036.5, + "worst_trade_pnl": -166.28, + "avg_hold_days": 18.6, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 61, + "time": 45 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 10, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -4.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 40.9 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 16.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 70/30 blend / max 10", + "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_70_30", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 15656.45, + "total_return_pct": 56.6, + "cagr_pct": 24.7, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.4, + "sharpe": 1.1, + "trades": 106, + "win_rate": 34.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 53.36, + "best_trade_r": 9.06, + "worst_trade_r": -1.35, + "best_trade_pnl": 1042.48, + "worst_trade_pnl": -166.57, + "avg_hold_days": 18.6, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 61, + "time": 45 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 10, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -4.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 42.1 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 15.4 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + }, + { + "variant": "residual80_highvol_blend60_40_fixed10", + "label": "Residual 80 + high-vol 60/40 blend / max 10", + "ranking": "residual_high_vol_blend_60_40", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "activation_momentum_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 14996.83, + "total_return_pct": 50.0, + "cagr_pct": 22.1, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.4, + "sharpe": 1.01, + "trades": 106, + "win_rate": 34.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 47.14, + "best_trade_r": 9.06, + "worst_trade_r": -1.35, + "best_trade_pnl": 996.67, + "worst_trade_pnl": -159.56, + "avg_hold_days": 18.6, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 61, + "time": 45 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 10, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -4.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 40.8 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 11.6 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + }, + { + "variant": "highvol70_fixed10", + "label": "High-vol 70 / max 10", + "ranking": "high_vol", + "cutoff": 70.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 70.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 16132.42, + "total_return_pct": 61.3, + "cagr_pct": 21.7, + "max_drawdown_pct": 29.8, + "sharpe": 0.8, + "trades": 225, + "win_rate": 32.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 27.26, + "best_trade_r": 9.64, + "worst_trade_r": -3.97, + "best_trade_pnl": 916.82, + "worst_trade_pnl": -264.82, + "avg_hold_days": 17.1, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 142, + "time": 83 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 180, + "spy_return_pct": 19.0, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -26.3 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 97.4 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 10.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-03-03", + "end_date": "2024-08-07" + }, + { + "variant": "highvol80_fixed10", + "label": "High-vol 80 / max 10", + "ranking": "high_vol", + "cutoff": 80.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 80.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 15839.88, + "total_return_pct": 58.4, + "cagr_pct": 20.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 29.8, + "sharpe": 0.78, + "trades": 226, + "win_rate": 32.7, + "avg_trade_pnl": 25.84, + "best_trade_r": 9.64, + "worst_trade_r": -3.97, + "best_trade_pnl": 916.82, + "worst_trade_pnl": -264.82, + "avg_hold_days": 17.0, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 143, + "time": 83 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 154, + "spy_return_pct": 19.0, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -26.3 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 97.4 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 8.9 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-03-03", + "end_date": "2024-08-07" + }, + { + "variant": "highvol90_fixed10", + "label": "High-vol 90 / max 10", + "ranking": "high_vol", + "cutoff": 90.0, + "filters": [ + { + "percentile_key": "vol_6m_percentile", + "cutoff": 90.0 + } + ], + "max_positions": 10, + "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0, + "risk_scale": null, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 16999.64, + "total_return_pct": 70.0, + "cagr_pct": 24.4, + "max_drawdown_pct": 25.3, + "sharpe": 0.88, + "trades": 214, + "win_rate": 35.0, + "avg_trade_pnl": 32.71, + "best_trade_r": 9.64, + "worst_trade_r": -3.97, + "best_trade_pnl": 917.64, + "worst_trade_pnl": -267.81, + "avg_hold_days": 17.8, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 130, + "time": 84 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 164, + "spy_return_pct": 19.0, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -21.0 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 102.7 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 6.3 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-03-03", + "end_date": "2024-08-07" + } + ], + "note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays." + }, + "exit_policy_variants": { + "variants": [ + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "hold", + "label": "80/20 entry + 30d hold / initial stop", + "description": "Baseline: keep the initial ATR stop and exit at 30 trading days.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 15615.79, + "total_return_pct": 56.2, + "cagr_pct": 24.5, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.4, + "sharpe": 1.11, + "trades": 106, + "win_rate": 34.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 52.98, + "best_trade_r": 9.06, + "worst_trade_r": -1.35, + "best_trade_pnl": 1036.5, + "worst_trade_pnl": -166.28, + "avg_hold_days": 18.6, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 61, + "time": 45 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 10, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -4.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 40.9 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 16.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "sma50", + "label": "80/20 entry + SMA50 break", + "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below its 50-day SMA.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 18181.16, + "total_return_pct": 81.8, + "cagr_pct": 34.2, + "max_drawdown_pct": 25.4, + "sharpe": 1.51, + "trades": 138, + "win_rate": 32.6, + "avg_trade_pnl": 59.28, + "best_trade_r": 27.38, + "worst_trade_r": -1.07, + "best_trade_pnl": 3464.49, + "worst_trade_pnl": -201.16, + "avg_hold_days": 11.9, + "exit_reasons": { + "sma50": 76, + "stop": 30, + "time": 32 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -5.3 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 40.0 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 37.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "low20", + "label": "80/20 entry + 20-day low break", + "description": "Exit at the close when price closes below the prior 20-day low.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 15480.91, + "total_return_pct": 54.8, + "cagr_pct": 24.0, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.6, + "sharpe": 1.1, + "trades": 106, + "win_rate": 35.8, + "avg_trade_pnl": 51.71, + "best_trade_r": 9.06, + "worst_trade_r": -1.35, + "best_trade_pnl": 1041.14, + "worst_trade_pnl": -164.78, + "avg_hold_days": 18.6, + "exit_reasons": { + "low20": 13, + "stop": 55, + "time": 38 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 10, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -4.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 39.3 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 16.4 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "technical40", + "label": "80/20 entry + technical score < 40", + "description": "Exit at the close when the price-derived technical score deteriorates below 40.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 15615.79, + "total_return_pct": 56.2, + "cagr_pct": 24.5, + "max_drawdown_pct": 23.4, + "sharpe": 1.11, + "trades": 106, + "win_rate": 34.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 52.98, + "best_trade_r": 9.06, + "worst_trade_r": -1.35, + "best_trade_pnl": 1036.5, + "worst_trade_pnl": -166.28, + "avg_hold_days": 18.6, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 61, + "time": 45 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 10, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -4.5 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 40.9 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 16.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + }, + { + "entry_variant": "residual80_highvol_blend80_20_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "atr_trail3", + "label": "80/20 entry + 3x ATR trailing stop", + "description": "Trail the stop upward to highest close minus 3 ATR, evaluated from prior data.", + "hold_days": 30, + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 20916.13, + "total_return_pct": 109.2, + "cagr_pct": 43.8, + "max_drawdown_pct": 24.1, + "sharpe": 1.75, + "trades": 117, + "win_rate": 41.9, + "avg_trade_pnl": 93.3, + "best_trade_r": 27.38, + "worst_trade_r": -1.35, + "best_trade_pnl": 3719.63, + "worst_trade_pnl": -218.27, + "avg_hold_days": 16.4, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 45, + "time": 22, + "trailing_stop": 50 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 10, + "spy_return_pct": 39.5, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2022, + "return_pct": -5.2 + }, + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 48.4 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 48.8 + } + ], + "start_date": "2022-07-20", + "end_date": "2024-07-31" + } + ], + "note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline." + }, + "portfolio_monitor": { + "production_strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", + "strategies": [ + { + "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold", + "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold", + "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.", + "is_production": false + }, + { + "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_hold", + "label": "Residual/high-vol 80/20 + 30d hold", + "description": "Promoted entry candidate before adding the ATR trailing exit.", + "is_production": false + }, + { + "strategy": "residual80_highvol80_20_atr3", + "label": "Production: residual/high-vol 80/20 + 3x ATR trail", + "description": "The live strategy: production activation gate and Admin exit policy as currently configured, 80/20 residual/high-vol rank.", + "is_production": true + } + ], + "lookbacks": [ + { + "lookback": "6m", + "label": "6 months" + }, + { + "lookback": "1y", + "label": "1 year" + }, + { + "lookback": "3y", + "label": "3 years" + }, + { + "lookback": "5y", + "label": "5 years" + }, + { + "lookback": "all", + "label": "All history" + } + ], + "runs": [ + { + "strategy": "legacy_residual80_hold", + "label": "Legacy residual 80 + 30d hold", + "description": "Previous production baseline: residual momentum gate/rank with 30-trading-day hold.", + "is_production": false, + "entry_variant": "production_residual_80_fixed10", + "exit_policy": "hold", + "live_exit_mode": null, + "lookback": "3y", + "lookback_label": "3 years", + "starting_capital": 10000.0, + "final_equity": 13536.3, + "total_return_pct": 35.4, + "cagr_pct": 32.4, + "max_drawdown_pct": 17.1, + "sharpe": 1.3, + "trades": 59, + "win_rate": 32.2, + "avg_trade_pnl": 59.94, + "best_trade_r": 7.9, + "worst_trade_r": -1.17, + "best_trade_pnl": 890.75, + "worst_trade_pnl": -144.14, + "avg_hold_days": 18.9, + "exit_reasons": { + "stop": 34, + "time": 25 + }, + "skipped_book_full": 0, + "spy_return_pct": 24.1, + "yearly_returns": [ + { + "year": 2023, + "return_pct": 20.7 + }, + { + "year": 2024, + "return_pct": 12.1 + } + ], + "start_date": "2023-07-03", + "end_date": "2024-07-31", + "equity_curve": [ + { + "date": "2023-07-03", + "equity": 10000.0, + "return_pct": 0.0 + }, + { + "date": "2023-07-05", + "equity": 9990.01, + "return_pct": -0.1 + }, + { + "date": "2023-07-06", + "equity": 9868.93, + "return_pct": -1.31 + }, + { + "date": "2023-07-07", + "equity": 9939.11, + "return_pct": -0.61 + }, + { + "date": "2023-07-10", + "equity": 10235.25, + "return_pct": 2.35 + }, + { + "date": "2023-07-11", + "equity": 10376.99, + "return_pct": 3.77 + }, + { + "date": "2023-07-12", + "equity": 10489.99, + "return_pct": 4.9 + }, + { + "date": "2023-07-13", + "equity": 11060.13, + "return_pct": 10.6 + }, + { + "date": "2023-07-14", + "equity": 10919.58, + "return_pct": 9.2 + }, + { + "date": "2023-07-17", + "equity": 11032.45, + "return_pct": 10.32 + 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true, + "outcome": "stop_hit", + "net_r": -1.029207, + "hold30_r": -1.0 + } + ], + "signal_eval": [ + { + "signal": "vol_6m", + "weeks": 39, + "avg_cross_section": 498.2, + "mean_ic": 0.0609, + "ic_t_stat": 1.48, + "ic_positive_pct": 64.1, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_12_1_resid", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0552, + "ic_t_stat": 1.98, + "ic_positive_pct": 60.0, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_12_1", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0531, + "ic_t_stat": 1.61, + "ic_positive_pct": 65.7, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "trend_200", + "weeks": 37, + "avg_cross_section": 497.9, + "mean_ic": 0.0161, + "ic_t_stat": 0.44, + "ic_positive_pct": 59.5, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "reversal_1m", + "weeks": 43, + "avg_cross_section": 498.7, + "mean_ic": 0.0059, + "ic_t_stat": 0.22, + "ic_positive_pct": 53.5, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_6_1", + "weeks": 39, + "avg_cross_section": 498.2, + "mean_ic": 0.0051, + "ic_t_stat": 0.21, + "ic_positive_pct": 56.4, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "mom_3_1", + "weeks": 42, + "avg_cross_section": 498.5, + "mean_ic": -0.0064, + "ic_t_stat": -0.25, + "ic_positive_pct": 50.0, + "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046, + "reliable": true + }, + { + "signal": "high_52w", + "weeks": 35, + "avg_cross_section": 497.7, + "mean_ic": -0.0086, + "ic_t_stat": -0.26, + "ic_positive_pct": 54.3, + "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088, + "reliable": true + } + ], + "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).", + "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.", + "recommendation": { + "headline": "Production baseline: residual/high-vol 80/20 entry rank with a 3x ATR trailing exit and 30-trading-day max hold.", + "items": [ + { + "topic": "production", + "text": "Production monitor (All history): +43.8% CAGR, Sharpe 1.75, max drawdown -24.1%." + }, + { + "topic": "exit", + "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+1.02R net/trade vs +0.38R for the S/R target exit). The simulated book agrees: +21.7% vs +20.4% CAGR at similar drawdown." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the confidence floor (worth +0.53R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.71R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "gate", + "text": "Gate: keep the NEUTRAL exclusion (worth +0.51R/trade under the hold exit)." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff", + "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 80 has the best per-trade net (+0.38R over 297 setups)." + }, + { + "topic": "benchmark", + "text": "Book vs SPY: beats buy-and-hold by +9.6 points (+49.1% vs +39.5%), max drawdown \u221223.4%." + }, + { + "topic": "robustness", + "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.55R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers." + } + ], + "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does." + }, + "research_recommendation": { + "items": [ + { + "topic": "capacity_15", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Max-15 capacity is not needed yet: Sharpe 1.03 vs 1.03, CAGR +21.7% vs +21.7%, skipped 0 vs 0." + }, + { + "topic": "cutoff_90", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Cutoff 90 stays research-only: Raw 90 / max 10 Sharpe 0.85 vs 1.03, drawdown 20.4% vs 23.4%, CAGR +15.8% vs +21.7%." + }, + { + "topic": "low_vol_overlay", + "candidate": false, + "text": "Low-vol overlay stays research-only: Residual 80 + low-vol blend / max 10 Sharpe 0.94 vs 1.03, drawdown 23.4% vs 23.4%, CAGR +19.0% vs +21.7%." + }, + { + "topic": "high_vol_overlay", + "candidate": true, + "text": "High-vol overlay is a promotion candidate: Residual 80 + high-vol 70 / max 10 Sharpe 1.17 vs 1.03, drawdown 23.4% vs 23.4%, CAGR +25.5% vs +21.7%." + } + ], + "note": "Residual 12-1 momentum is now the production activation rank. Remaining rows are research comparisons only." + } +}