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# GTL confirmation/union matrix
Status: **complete**
Holdout split: `2024-07-01`
Completed arms: 13/13
| Arm | Mode | Qualified | Full Sharpe | CAGR | Max DD | Trades | Train Sharpe | Test Sharpe | Ex-top-5% R | Screen |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| control | intersection | 1086 | 2.03 | 50.0 | 21.4 | 321 | 1.28 | 2.78 | 0.049 | 0/0 |
| touch_intersection | intersection | 1049 | 1.94 | 47.1 | 21.7 | 323 | 1.26 | 2.59 | 0.060 | 2/6 |
| touch_union | union | 1104 | 2.01 | 50.1 | 20.8 | 322 | 1.29 | 2.73 | 0.042 | 4/6 |
| strength_intersection | intersection | 1037 | 2.06 | 50.7 | 21.7 | 316 | 1.30 | 2.82 | 0.054 | 5/6 |
| strength_union | union | 1208 | 1.91 | 47.2 | 18.7 | 338 | 1.44 | 2.37 | 0.062 | 4/6 |
| merge_intersection | intersection | 791 | 2.01 | 47.5 | 18.8 | 293 | 1.44 | 2.56 | 0.071 | 4/6 |
| merge_union | union | 1418 | 1.72 | 41.0 | 19.7 | 342 | 1.40 | 1.89 | 0.042 | 4/6 |
| grid_intersection | intersection | 429 | 1.60 | 29.8 | 13.6 | 224 | 1.48 | 1.68 | 0.069 | 3/6 |
| grid_union | union | 1454 | 2.05 | 54.3 | 22.0 | 348 | 2.06 | 1.95 | 0.053 | 4/6 |
| touch_strength_intersection | intersection | 1009 | 1.99 | 47.9 | 18.7 | 317 | 1.35 | 2.59 | 0.068 | 4/6 |
| touch_merge_intersection | intersection | 767 | 1.79 | 40.5 | 22.7 | 297 | 1.18 | 2.31 | 0.070 | 2/6 |
| strength_merge_intersection | intersection | 750 | 1.99 | 46.7 | 17.9 | 290 | 1.44 | 2.50 | 0.067 | 4/6 |
| touch_strength_merge_intersection | intersection | 733 | 1.81 | 40.9 | 21.2 | 292 | 1.25 | 2.28 | 0.071 | 3/6 |
## Interpretation guardrail
Intersections test the retained control cohort; unions test control plus genuinely added setups. The post-2024 interval is a robustness check, not a pristine holdout. Passing does not authorize deployment.