Demote/relabel the setup-outcome check; add exit reason to My Trades

The "tracking/drift" chip compared the live target/stop/expired outcome cohort
against the backtest's target/stop bucket (overall_qualified) — a like-for-like
pipeline check — but sat directly under the portfolio monitor, which shows the
promoted 3x-ATR-trailing book. That juxtaposition (plus "faithfully implementing
it" copy) made a plumbing/QA signal read as validation of the ATR-trail strategy
you actually trade. It validates neither the trailing-stop book nor real trades.

- Move the check out of the monitor block into the "Track-record maintenance"
  disclosure, relabelled "Setup-outcome pipeline check" with copy that says it
  checks the setup-grading pipeline (no look-ahead/config/data drift), NOT the
  ATR-trail production book. The genuine live validation stays My Trades (real
  paper trades, same ATR-trail exits) up top.
- Add a compact "Exit" column to My Trades showing close_reason
  (Stop/Trail/Target/Time/Manual) — the field was already plumbed to the
  frontend PaperTrade type, so this is frontend-only.

tsc -b && vite build pass.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

frontend/src/components/signals/BacktestPanel.tsx

@@ -1,7 +1,6 @@
 import { useMemo, useState } from 'react';
 import { useMutation, useQueryClient } from '@tanstack/react-query';
 import { useBacktestReport } from '../../hooks/useMarketRegime';
-import { usePerformance } from '../../hooks/usePerformance';
 import { triggerJob } from '../../api/admin';
 import { Button } from '../ui/Button';
 import { Callout } from '../ui/Callout';
@@ -10,14 +9,6 @@ import { Section } from '../ui/Section';
 import { useToast } from '../ui/Toast';
 import type { BacktestCurvePoint, BacktestPortfolioMonitorRun } from '../../lib/types';
 
-// Need at least this many matured setups before a live-vs-backtest verdict means
-// anything; below it the live sample is too noisy to compare.
-const MIN_MATURED = 20;
-// Live expectancy this far (in R) below the backtest counts as drift, not noise.
-const DRIFT_TOLERANCE_R = 0.2;
-
-type TrackingStatus = 'building' | 'tracking' | 'drift' | 'no-backtest';
-
 function fmtR(v: number | null | undefined): string {
   if (v === null || v === undefined) return '—';
   return `${v > 0 ? '+' : ''}${v.toFixed(2)}R`;
@@ -67,17 +58,6 @@ function Stat({ label, value, valueClass = 'text-gray-100', sub }: {
   );
 }
 
-function VerdictChip({ status }: { status: TrackingStatus }) {
-  const styles: Record<TrackingStatus, { cls: string; label: string }> = {
-    tracking: { cls: 'border-emerald-500/30 bg-emerald-500/15 text-emerald-300', label: '✓ tracking' },
-    drift: { cls: 'border-amber-500/30 bg-amber-500/15 text-amber-300', label: '⚠ drift' },
-    building: { cls: 'border-white/10 bg-white/[0.05] text-gray-400', label: 'building' },
-    'no-backtest': { cls: 'border-white/10 bg-white/[0.05] text-gray-400', label: 'no backtest' },
-  };
-  const s = styles[status];
-  return <span className={`shrink-0 rounded-full border px-2.5 py-1 text-xs font-medium ${s.cls}`}>{s.label}</span>;
-}
-
 function curvePath(
   points: BacktestCurvePoint[],
   min: number,
@@ -158,7 +138,6 @@ function EquityCurveChart({ run }: { run: BacktestPortfolioMonitorRun }) {
 
 export function BacktestPanel() {
   const { data: report, isLoading } = useBacktestReport();
-  const { data: perf } = usePerformance({ qualified_only: true });
   const queryClient = useQueryClient();
   const toast = useToast();
   const [selectedStrategy, setSelectedStrategy] = useState('');
@@ -178,22 +157,6 @@ export function BacktestPanel() {
     [monitor, activeStrategy, activeLookback],
   );
 
-  // Live matured qualified cohort vs the backtest's qualified expectancy — the
-  // out-of-sample check that the running system faithfully implements the backtest.
-  const liveAvgR = perf?.overall.avg_r ?? null;
-  const liveN = perf?.overall.total ?? 0;
-  const btAvgR = report?.overall_qualified.avg_r ?? null;
-  let status: TrackingStatus = 'building';
-  if (liveAvgR != null && liveN >= MIN_MATURED) {
-    status = btAvgR == null ? 'no-backtest' : liveAvgR >= btAvgR - DRIFT_TOLERANCE_R ? 'tracking' : 'drift';
-  }
-  const verdictNote: Record<TrackingStatus, string> = {
-    building: `Fewer than ~${MIN_MATURED} matured setups so far — until then the backtest is the edge estimate. This turns into a live check as setups age past their ~30-day window.`,
-    'no-backtest': 'Run the backtest to get a baseline to compare the live record against.',
-    tracking: 'Live setups are resolving in line with the backtest — the running system is faithfully implementing it.',
-    drift: 'Live expectancy is running materially below the backtest — small-sample noise, a regime shift, or a live/backtest gap. Worth a look.',
-  };
-
   const run = useMutation({
     mutationFn: () => triggerJob('backtest'),
     onSuccess: (res) => {
@@ -208,7 +171,7 @@ export function BacktestPanel() {
   });
 
   return (
-    <Section title="Is the strategy working?" hint="portfolio simulation vs S&P 500, validated against the live record">
+    <Section title="Is the strategy working?" hint="portfolio simulation of the promoted strategy vs S&P 500">
       <div className="space-y-4">
         <div className="flex flex-wrap items-start justify-between gap-3">
           <Disclosure summary="How this is measured">
@@ -320,25 +283,6 @@ export function BacktestPanel() {
                   </div>
                 )}
 
-                {/* Live-vs-backtest validation: does the running system realize what the backtest promised? */}
-                <div className="glass-sm space-y-2 p-4">
-                  <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center justify-between gap-x-6 gap-y-2">
-                    <div className="flex flex-wrap items-baseline gap-x-5 gap-y-1">
-                      <span className="text-sm text-gray-400">
-                        Live <span className={`num font-semibold ${rColor(liveAvgR)}`}>{fmtR(liveAvgR)}</span>
-                      </span>
-                      <span className="text-sm text-gray-400">
-                        Backtest <span className={`num font-semibold ${rColor(btAvgR)}`}>{fmtR(btAvgR)}</span>
-                      </span>
-                      <span className="text-xs text-gray-500">
-                        {liveN} matured{perf ? ` · ${perf.maturing} maturing` : ''} · qualified expectancy
-                      </span>
-                    </div>
-                    <VerdictChip status={status} />
-                  </div>
-                  <p className="text-[11px] leading-relaxed text-gray-500">{verdictNote[status]}</p>
-                </div>
-
                 {monitor.note && <p className="text-[11px] text-gray-600">{monitor.note}</p>}
               </div>
             ) : (
@@ -374,7 +318,7 @@ export function BacktestPanel() {
             <p className="text-[11px] text-gray-600">
               Strategy research — gate tuning, exit sweeps, factor rank-IC — now runs locally against a
               database snapshot (see README). This page keeps only what says whether the promoted strategy
-              is worth trading and being delivered live.
+              is worth trading; your realized results up top show what it is actually delivering.
             </p>
           </>
         )}

frontend/src/components/signals/MyTradesPanel.tsx

@@ -19,6 +19,18 @@ function color(v: number | null): string {
   return 'text-gray-300';
 }
 
+// How the trade was closed — useful context on real trades at almost no cost.
+function reasonMeta(reason: string | null): { label: string; cls: string } {
+  switch (reason) {
+    case 'stop': return { label: 'Stop', cls: 'text-red-400' };
+    case 'trailing': return { label: 'Trail', cls: 'text-amber-400' };
+    case 'target': return { label: 'Target', cls: 'text-emerald-400' };
+    case 'time': return { label: 'Time', cls: 'text-gray-400' };
+    case 'manual': return { label: 'Manual', cls: 'text-blue-300' };
+    default: return { label: '—', cls: 'text-gray-500' };
+  }
+}
+
 function Stat({ label, value, valueClass = 'text-gray-100', sub }: {
   label: string; value: string; valueClass?: string; sub?: string;
 }) {
@@ -85,6 +97,7 @@ export function MyTradesPanel() {
                   <th className="px-4 py-2.5 text-right">P&L</th>
                   <th className="px-4 py-2.5 text-right">R</th>
                   <th className="px-4 py-2.5 text-right">Alpha</th>
+                  <th className="px-4 py-2.5">Exit</th>
                   <th className="px-4 py-2.5 text-right">Closed</th>
                 </tr>
               </thead>
@@ -102,6 +115,11 @@ export function MyTradesPanel() {
                     <td className={`num px-4 py-2.5 text-right font-semibold ${p ? color(p.pnl) : 'text-gray-500'}`}>{p ? money(p.pnl) : '—'}</td>
                     <td className={`num px-4 py-2.5 text-right ${p?.r != null ? color(p.r) : 'text-gray-500'}`}>{p?.r != null ? fmtR(p.r) : '—'}</td>
                     <td className={`num px-4 py-2.5 text-right ${t.alpha_pct != null ? color(t.alpha_pct) : 'text-gray-500'}`} title="Return vs. S&P 500 over the holding period">{t.alpha_pct != null ? `${t.alpha_pct >= 0 ? '+' : ''}${t.alpha_pct.toFixed(1)}%` : '—'}</td>
+                    <td className="px-4 py-2.5">
+                      <span className={`num text-[10px] font-semibold uppercase tracking-wider ${reasonMeta(t.close_reason).cls}`} title="How the trade was closed">
+                        {reasonMeta(t.close_reason).label}
+                      </span>
+                    </td>
                     <td className="num px-4 py-2.5 text-right text-gray-500">{t.closed_at ? new Date(t.closed_at).toLocaleDateString() : '—'}</td>
                   </tr>
                 ))}

frontend/src/components/signals/TrackRecordPanel.tsx

@@ -1,4 +1,6 @@
 import { useMutation, useQueryClient } from '@tanstack/react-query';
+import { usePerformance } from '../../hooks/usePerformance';
+import { useBacktestReport } from '../../hooks/useMarketRegime';
 import { triggerJob, resetTrackRecord } from '../../api/admin';
 import { Button } from '../ui/Button';
 import { Disclosure } from '../ui/Disclosure';
@@ -6,10 +8,63 @@ import { useToast } from '../ui/Toast';
 import { BacktestPanel } from './BacktestPanel';
 import { MyTradesPanel } from './MyTradesPanel';
 
+// Need at least this many matured setups before the pipeline check means anything;
+// below it the live sample is too noisy to compare.
+const MIN_MATURED = 20;
+// Live expectancy this far (in R) below the backtest counts as drift, not noise.
+const DRIFT_TOLERANCE_R = 0.2;
+
+type PipelineStatus = 'building' | 'tracking' | 'drift' | 'no-backtest';
+
+function fmtR(value: number | null): string {
+  if (value === null) return '—';
+  return `${value > 0 ? '+' : ''}${value.toFixed(2)}R`;
+}
+
+function rColor(value: number | null): string {
+  if (value === null) return 'text-gray-400';
+  if (value > 0) return 'text-emerald-400';
+  if (value < 0) return 'text-red-400';
+  return 'text-gray-300';
+}
+
+function StatusChip({ status }: { status: PipelineStatus }) {
+  const styles: Record<PipelineStatus, { cls: string; label: string }> = {
+    tracking: { cls: 'border-emerald-500/30 bg-emerald-500/15 text-emerald-300', label: '✓ in sync' },
+    drift: { cls: 'border-amber-500/30 bg-amber-500/15 text-amber-300', label: '⚠ drift' },
+    building: { cls: 'border-white/10 bg-white/[0.05] text-gray-400', label: 'building' },
+    'no-backtest': { cls: 'border-white/10 bg-white/[0.05] text-gray-400', label: 'no backtest' },
+  };
+  const s = styles[status];
+  return <span className={`shrink-0 rounded-full border px-2.5 py-1 text-xs font-medium ${s.cls}`}>{s.label}</span>;
+}
+
 export function TrackRecordPanel() {
   const queryClient = useQueryClient();
   const toast = useToast();
 
+  // Setup-outcome pipeline check: does the live outcome evaluator reproduce the
+  // backtest's target/stop grading? Both sides use the SAME target/stop/expired
+  // model — this is a plumbing/QA signal (no look-ahead, config or data drift),
+  // NOT validation of the ATR-trail production strategy shown in the monitor.
+  const { data: perf } = usePerformance({ qualified_only: true });
+  const { data: report } = useBacktestReport();
+  const liveAvgR = perf?.overall.avg_r ?? null;
+  const liveN = perf?.overall.total ?? 0;
+  const btAvgR = report?.overall_qualified.avg_r ?? null;
+  let status: PipelineStatus = 'building';
+  if (liveAvgR != null && liveN >= MIN_MATURED) {
+    status = btAvgR == null ? 'no-backtest' : liveAvgR >= btAvgR - DRIFT_TOLERANCE_R ? 'tracking' : 'drift';
+  }
+  const statusNote: Record<PipelineStatus, string> = {
+    building: `Fewer than ~${MIN_MATURED} matured setups so far — too few to compare.`,
+    'no-backtest': 'Run the backtest to get a target/stop baseline to check against.',
+    tracking:
+      "Live setup outcomes are resolving in line with the backtest's target/stop model — the outcome-evaluation pipeline shows no look-ahead, config or data drift. (Checks the setup-grading pipeline, not the ATR-trail production book above.)",
+    drift:
+      "Live setup outcomes are running materially below the backtest's target/stop model — small-sample noise, a regime shift, or a live/backtest pipeline gap. Worth a look.",
+  };
+
   const evaluateMutation = useMutation({
     mutationFn: () => triggerJob('outcome_evaluator'),
     onSuccess: () => {
@@ -46,22 +101,42 @@ export function TrackRecordPanel() {
 
   return (
     <div className="space-y-6">
-      {/* Your real, realized results come first; the strategy validation follows. */}
+      {/* Your real, realized results come first; the strategy simulation follows. */}
       <MyTradesPanel />
       <div className="border-t border-white/[0.06]" />
       <BacktestPanel />
 
       <Disclosure summary="Track-record maintenance">
-        <div className="space-y-3 pt-1">
+        <div className="space-y-4 pt-1">
           <p className="max-w-2xl text-xs text-gray-500">
             The live check replays every setup against the daily bars after detection: target before stop =
             win, stop first = loss (both in one bar counts conservatively as a loss), neither within 30
             trading days = expired at 0R. Only setups whose full window has elapsed count; younger ones are
             still maturing (near stops resolve fast, far targets need time, so early numbers skew negative).
             The evaluator scores <span className="text-gray-300">all</span> setups — qualified or not, so
-            unqualified ones stay a control group — and runs nightly. Reset permanently clears all setups and
+            unqualified ones stay a control group — and runs nightly.
-            their outcomes; live setups regenerate on the next scan.
           </p>
+
+          {/* Diagnostic, not strategy validation: live target/stop outcomes vs the backtest's target/stop model. */}
+          <div className="glass-sm space-y-2 p-4">
+            <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center justify-between gap-x-6 gap-y-2">
+              <div className="flex flex-wrap items-baseline gap-x-5 gap-y-1">
+                <span className="text-sm text-gray-300">Setup-outcome pipeline check</span>
+                <span className="text-sm text-gray-400">
+                  Live <span className={`num font-semibold ${rColor(liveAvgR)}`}>{fmtR(liveAvgR)}</span>
+                </span>
+                <span className="text-sm text-gray-400">
+                  Backtest <span className={`num font-semibold ${rColor(btAvgR)}`}>{fmtR(btAvgR)}</span>
+                </span>
+                <span className="text-xs text-gray-500">
+                  {liveN} matured{perf ? ` · ${perf.maturing} maturing` : ''} · qualified target/stop
+                </span>
+              </div>
+              <StatusChip status={status} />
+            </div>
+            <p className="text-[11px] leading-relaxed text-gray-500">{statusNote[status]}</p>
+          </div>
+
           <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2">
             <Button onClick={() => evaluateMutation.mutate()} loading={evaluateMutation.isPending}>
               {evaluateMutation.isPending ? 'Evaluating…' : 'Evaluate Now'}