Add blue-sky projected targets and played-out setup UX

Fixes stale below-price setups showing as current recommendations. Three
distinct causes share the symptom (get_trade_setups returns the latest stored
setup per direction and never expires it):

- Genuine blue-sky (no overhead S/R): scanner + TargetGenerator now project a
  measured-move target (entry +/- 3*ATR, ~2:1 R:R), flagged projected with a
  low sr_strength probability haircut. Overhead check keys on level tag OR price
  so it never projects through a straddling resistance cluster.
- Projected targets clear a stricter activation bar (long-only, momentum >= 90,
  confidence >= min+10), independent of the general momentum gate. Mirrored in
  frontend qualification.ts.
- Played-out UX (fixes the reported TTWO case, which is R:R-starved under a
  resistance cluster, not blue-sky): when price is at/past target or through the
  stop, RecommendationPanel shows a "No current setup" state and softens the
  stale ticker-level header/reasoning, instead of a stale actionable card.

No migration: the projected flag rides in existing targets_json. 504 backend
unit tests pass; frontend typechecks.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

tests/unit/test_qualification.py

@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ from types import SimpleNamespace
 
 from app.services.qualification import (
     best_target_probability,
+    primary_target_is_projected,
     primary_target_probability,
     setup_qualifies,
 )
@@ -155,6 +156,54 @@ class TestExcludeNeutral:
         assert setup_qualifies(_setup(recommended_action="NEUTRAL"), DEFAULT_GATE) is True
 
 
+def _projected_setup(**kwargs):
+    """A setup whose primary (headline) target is a blue-sky projection."""
+    base = dict(
+        direction="long",
+        momentum_percentile=92.0,
+        confidence_score=80.0,
+        targets=[{"probability": 30.0, "is_primary": True, "projected": True}],
+    )
+    base.update(kwargs)
+    return _setup(**base)
+
+
+class TestProjectedTargetGate:
+    """Projected targets clear a stricter bar, independent of the momentum gate."""
+
+    def test_projected_passes_stricter_bar(self):
+        # DEFAULT_GATE has the momentum selection OFF, yet the projected block
+        # still requires strong momentum + higher confidence — and this one clears.
+        assert setup_qualifies(_projected_setup(), DEFAULT_GATE) is True
+
+    def test_projected_fails_below_momentum_floor(self):
+        assert setup_qualifies(_projected_setup(momentum_percentile=85.0), DEFAULT_GATE) is False
+
+    def test_projected_fails_missing_momentum(self):
+        assert setup_qualifies(_projected_setup(momentum_percentile=None), DEFAULT_GATE) is False
+
+    def test_projected_fails_below_raised_confidence_floor(self):
+        # min_confidence 55 + 10 margin = 65; a 60% confidence projected setup fails
+        # even though it would clear the plain 55 floor.
+        assert setup_qualifies(_projected_setup(confidence_score=60.0), DEFAULT_GATE) is False
+
+    def test_projected_short_never_qualifies(self):
+        s = _projected_setup(direction="short", recommended_action="SHORT_HIGH")
+        assert setup_qualifies(s, DEFAULT_GATE) is False
+
+    def test_sr_anchored_setup_unaffected_by_projected_bar(self):
+        # A normal (non-projected) setup with modest momentum still passes DEFAULT.
+        assert setup_qualifies(_setup(momentum_percentile=10.0), DEFAULT_GATE) is True
+
+    def test_primary_target_is_projected_helper(self):
+        assert primary_target_is_projected(_projected_setup()) is True
+        assert primary_target_is_projected(_setup()) is False
+
+    def test_projected_flag_falls_back_when_no_primary(self):
+        s = _setup(targets=[{"probability": 30.0, "projected": True}])
+        assert primary_target_is_projected(s) is True
+
+
 class TestBestTargetProbability:
     def test_returns_max(self):
         s = _setup(targets=[{"probability": 40.0}, {"probability": 72.0}, {"probability": 55.0}])