Add blue-sky projected targets and played-out setup UX

Fixes stale below-price setups showing as current recommendations. Three
distinct causes share the symptom (get_trade_setups returns the latest stored
setup per direction and never expires it):

- Genuine blue-sky (no overhead S/R): scanner + TargetGenerator now project a
  measured-move target (entry +/- 3*ATR, ~2:1 R:R), flagged projected with a
  low sr_strength probability haircut. Overhead check keys on level tag OR price
  so it never projects through a straddling resistance cluster.
- Projected targets clear a stricter activation bar (long-only, momentum >= 90,
  confidence >= min+10), independent of the general momentum gate. Mirrored in
  frontend qualification.ts.
- Played-out UX (fixes the reported TTWO case, which is R:R-starved under a
  resistance cluster, not blue-sky): when price is at/past target or through the
  stop, RecommendationPanel shows a "No current setup" state and softens the
  stale ticker-level header/reasoning, instead of a stale actionable card.

No migration: the projected flag rides in existing targets_json. 504 backend
unit tests pass; frontend typechecks.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

frontend/src/components/ticker/RecommendationPanel.tsx

@@ -49,6 +49,21 @@ function entryDrift(setup: TradeSetup, currentPrice?: number) {
   return { pct, progressPct, towardTarget, status };
 }
 
+/**
+ * A stored setup is the latest for its direction. When price has run to/past the
+ * target (played out) or through the stop (invalidated), there is no fresh setup
+ * — the card and the ticker-level header should say so rather than present a
+ * stale actionable recommendation. Returns null when there's no live price.
+ */
+function notActionableState(setup: TradeSetup, currentPrice?: number) {
+  if (currentPrice == null) return null;
+  const drift = entryDrift(setup, currentPrice);
+  const playedOut = setup.direction === 'long' ? currentPrice >= setup.target : currentPrice <= setup.target;
+  const invalidated = drift?.status === 'invalidated';
+  if (!playedOut && !invalidated) return null;
+  return { playedOut, invalidated };
+}
+
 function riskClass(risk: TradeSetup['risk_level']) {
   if (risk === 'Low') return 'text-emerald-400';
   if (risk === 'Medium') return 'text-amber-400';
@@ -88,6 +103,7 @@ function TargetTable({ setup }: { setup: TradeSetup }) {
               <td className="py-2 pr-3 text-gray-300">
                 {target.is_primary && <span className="mr-1 text-blue-300">★</span>}
                 {target.classification}
+                {target.projected && <span className="ml-1 text-sky-400">(projected)</span>}
               </td>
               <td className="py-2 pr-3 font-mono text-gray-200">{formatPrice(target.price)}</td>
               <td className="py-2 pr-3 font-mono text-gray-200">{formatPercent((target.distance_from_entry / setup.entry_price) * 100)}</td>
@@ -114,6 +130,14 @@ function SetupCard({ setup, action, currentPrice, risk, regime }: { setup?: Trad
   const drift = entryDrift(setup, currentPrice);
   const sizing = positionSize(risk.accountSize, risk.riskPct, setup.entry_price, setup.stop_loss);
   const counterTrend = regime ? isCounterTrend(setup.direction, regime.label) : false;
+  const primaryProjected = setup.targets?.some((t) => t.is_primary && t.projected) ?? false;
+
+  // When price has run to/past the target (played out) or through the stop
+  // (invalidated), there is no fresh setup — show a plain "no current setup"
+  // state instead of an actionable card with no reward left.
+  const inactive = notActionableState(setup, currentPrice);
+  const invalidated = inactive?.invalidated ?? false;
+  const notActionable = inactive != null;
 
   const createTrade = useCreatePaperTrade();
   const [taking, setTaking] = useState(false);
@@ -134,6 +158,30 @@ function SetupCard({ setup, action, currentPrice, risk, regime }: { setup?: Trad
     );
   };
 
+  if (notActionable) {
+    const dir = setup.direction.toUpperCase();
+    return (
+      <div data-direction={setup.direction} className="glass-sm p-4 space-y-2">
+        <div className="flex items-center justify-between">
+          <h4 className={`text-sm font-semibold ${setup.direction === 'long' ? 'text-emerald-400' : 'text-red-400'}`}>
+            {dir}
+          </h4>
+          <span className="text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-500">No current setup</span>
+        </div>
+        <p className="text-[11px] text-gray-400">
+          {invalidated
+            ? `The last ${dir} setup is invalidated — price (${formatPrice(currentPrice!)}) has passed the stop (${formatPrice(setup.stop_loss)}). No fresh ${dir} setup right now; the scanner surfaces a new one when it forms.`
+            : `The last ${dir} setup has played out — price (${formatPrice(currentPrice!)}) is at or past the target (${formatPrice(setup.target)}). No fresh ${dir} setup right now; the scanner surfaces a new one when it forms.`}
+        </p>
+        <div className="grid grid-cols-2 gap-x-2 gap-y-1 text-xs">
+          <div className="text-gray-500">Current</div><div className="font-mono text-gray-300">{currentPrice != null ? formatPrice(currentPrice) : '—'}</div>
+          <div className="text-gray-500">Last entry</div><div className="font-mono text-gray-400">{formatPrice(setup.entry_price)}{drift ? ` (${drift.pct >= 0 ? '+' : ''}${drift.pct.toFixed(1)}%)` : ''}</div>
+          <div className="text-gray-500">Last target</div><div className="font-mono text-gray-400">{formatPrice(setup.target)}</div>
+        </div>
+      </div>
+    );
+  }
+
   return (
     <div
       data-direction={setup.direction}
@@ -157,6 +205,11 @@ function SetupCard({ setup, action, currentPrice, risk, regime }: { setup?: Trad
         </p>
       )}
 
+      {primaryProjected && (
+        <p className="text-[11px] text-sky-400">
+          ⚑ Blue-sky: no resistance overhead — target is an ATR measured-move projection, not an S/R level.
+        </p>
+      )}
       {drift && drift.status === 'invalidated' && (
         <p className="text-[11px] text-red-400">
           ⚠ Price ({formatPrice(currentPrice!)}) is past the stop — this setup is invalidated.
@@ -341,12 +394,23 @@ export function RecommendationPanel({ symbol, longSetup, shortSetup, currentPric
     return null;
   }
 
+  // If the preferred setup has played out / been invalidated, the stored
+  // ticker-level bias and reasoning are stale — don't headline "Strong Long"
+  // above a "no current setup" card.
+  const preferredInactive = preferredSetup ? notActionableState(preferredSetup, currentPrice) : null;
+
   return (
     <section>
       <h2 className="mb-3 text-xs font-medium uppercase tracking-widest text-gray-500">Recommendation</h2>
       <div className="glass p-5 space-y-4">
         <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-4">
-          <span className="text-sm font-semibold text-blue-300">{recommendationActionLabel(action)}</span>
+          {preferredInactive ? (
+            <span className="text-sm font-semibold text-gray-400">
+              No current setup <span className="font-normal text-gray-500">(last {preferredDirection} bias {recommendationActionLabel(action).toLowerCase()} — {preferredInactive.invalidated ? 'invalidated' : 'played out'})</span>
+            </span>
+          ) : (
+            <span className="text-sm font-semibold text-blue-300">{recommendationActionLabel(action)}</span>
+          )}
           <span className={`text-sm font-semibold ${riskClass(summary?.risk_level ?? null)}`}>
             Risk: {summary?.risk_level ?? '—'}
           </span>
@@ -359,7 +423,7 @@ export function RecommendationPanel({ symbol, longSetup, shortSetup, currentPric
 
         <p className="text-xs text-gray-500">Recommended Action is the ticker-level bias. The preferred setup is shown first; the opposite side is available under Alternative scenario.</p>
 
-        {summary?.reasoning && (
+        {summary?.reasoning && !preferredInactive && (
           <p className="text-sm text-gray-300">{summary.reasoning}</p>
         )}
 

frontend/src/lib/qualification.ts

@@ -2,6 +2,20 @@ import type { ActivationConfig, TradeSetup } from './types';
 
 const HIGH_CONVICTION_ACTIONS = new Set(['LONG_HIGH', 'SHORT_HIGH']);
 
+// Projected (blue-sky) targets clear a stricter bar than S/R-anchored ones —
+// long-only, strong momentum, higher confidence floor. Mirrors the constants in
+// app/services/qualification.py; keep the two in sync.
+const PROJECTED_MIN_MOMENTUM_PERCENTILE = 90;
+const PROJECTED_CONFIDENCE_MARGIN = 10;
+
+/** Whether the setup's headline target is a blue-sky measured-move projection. */
+export function primaryTargetIsProjected(setup: TradeSetup): boolean {
+  const targets = setup.targets ?? [];
+  const primary = targets.find((t) => t.is_primary);
+  if (primary) return Boolean(primary.projected);
+  return targets.some((t) => t.projected);
+}
+
 function actionDirection(action: TradeSetup['recommended_action']): 'long' | 'short' | 'neutral' {
   if (!action || action === 'NEUTRAL') return 'neutral';
   if (action.startsWith('LONG')) return 'long';
@@ -51,6 +65,16 @@ export function qualifiesSetup(setup: TradeSetup, config: ActivationConfig): boo
       return false;
     }
   }
+  // Projected (blue-sky) targets clear a stricter bar than S/R-anchored ones,
+  // independent of the general momentum gate: long-only, strong momentum, higher
+  // confidence floor. Mirrors app/services/qualification.py.
+  if (primaryTargetIsProjected(setup)) {
+    if (setup.direction !== 'long') return false;
+    if (setup.momentum_percentile == null || setup.momentum_percentile < PROJECTED_MIN_MOMENTUM_PERCENTILE) {
+      return false;
+    }
+    if ((setup.confidence_score ?? 0) < config.min_confidence + PROJECTED_CONFIDENCE_MARGIN) return false;
+  }
   // NEUTRAL = "no clear setup"; an opposite action means this setup is counter-bias.
   if (config.exclude_neutral) {
     const actionDir = actionDirection(setup.recommended_action);

frontend/src/lib/types.ts

@@ -577,6 +577,8 @@ export interface TradeTarget {
   sr_level_id: number;
   sr_strength: number;
   is_primary?: boolean;
+  /** Blue-sky measured-move target (no overhead S/R); sr_level_id is -1. */
+  projected?: boolean;
 }
 
 export interface RecommendationSummary {