fix(backtest): quote one book, not two

The recommendation's "Book vs SPY" line read from portfolio_sim — the hold/target
policy book — while the tiles directly above read from portfolio_monitor, the
production ATR-trail book. Same SPY figure, different portfolio return, on one
screen. It now reads the same production row the tiles do.

Also removed, for the same reason: the "legacy exit diagnostic" comparing hold
against the S/R target. Both are exits the production book replaced, so a
recommendation between them could not lead to an action. And the fallback
headline, which advised the fixed-hold exit whenever a report had no production
row — a report that cannot describe the production baseline now states none.

portfolio_sim stays in the report payload: scripts/run_backtest_snapshot.py and
reports/compare_reports.py read it, and it is no longer surfaced in the UI. The
test fixture now carries a production monitor whose numbers differ from its
policy sim, so re-sourcing that line from the old place fails rather than passes
unnoticed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

tests/unit/test_backtest_service.py

@@ -1272,20 +1272,36 @@ def test_build_recommendation_reads_the_report():
             {"min_momentum_percentile": 60.0, "net_avg_r": 0.05, "total": 300},
             {"min_momentum_percentile": 0.0, "net_avg_r": -0.12, "total": 1000},
         ],
+        # Legacy policy book. Its numbers are deliberately DIFFERENT from the
+        # production monitor's below, so sourcing the benchmark line from here
+        # again would fail the assertion rather than pass unnoticed.
         "portfolio_sim": {"policies": [
             {"policy": "target", "cagr_pct": 23.7, "total_return_pct": 134.8,
              "spy_return_pct": 95.9, "max_drawdown_pct": 20.7},
             {"policy": "hold", "cagr_pct": 31.9, "total_return_pct": 203.6,
              "spy_return_pct": 95.9, "max_drawdown_pct": 21.2},
         ]},
+        "portfolio_monitor": {
+            "production_strategy": "prod",
+            "runs": [{
+                "strategy": "prod", "lookback": "all", "lookback_label": "All history",
+                "cagr_pct": 40.0, "sharpe": 1.72, "max_drawdown_pct": 17.7,
+                "total_return_pct": 297.8, "spy_return_pct": 101.9,
+            }],
+        },
     }
     rec = bt._build_recommendation(report)
     by_topic: dict[str, list[str]] = {}
     for item in rec["items"]:
         by_topic.setdefault(item["topic"], []).append(item["text"])
 
-    assert rec["headline"] is not None and "hold 30" in rec["headline"]
-    assert any("hold 30 trading days" in t for t in by_topic["exit"])
+    assert rec["headline"] is not None and "Production baseline" in rec["headline"]
+    # The hold-vs-target comparison is gone: both are exits the production book
+    # replaced, so a recommendation between them cannot lead to an action.
+    assert "exit" not in by_topic
+    # Benchmark must quote the SAME row the page's tiles show, not the policy sim.
+    assert "+297.8%" in by_topic["benchmark"][0]
+    assert "203.6" not in by_topic["benchmark"][0]
     gate_texts = " | ".join(by_topic["gate"])
     assert "confidence floor adds nothing" in gate_texts
     assert "keep the R:R floor" in gate_texts
@@ -1810,3 +1826,24 @@ class TestPortfolioQualityMetrics:
         for key in ("sortino", "gain_to_pain", "profit_factor"):
             assert key in sim
         assert sim["sortino"] is None
+
+def test_build_recommendation_states_no_baseline_without_a_production_row():
+    """A report with no portfolio monitor cannot describe the production book.
+    It used to fall back to recommending the fixed-hold exit — advice for a model
+    the production book had already replaced."""
+    report = {
+        "overall_qualified": {"net_avg_r": 0.13, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.05},
+        "time_exit_sweep": [{"hold_days": 30, "net_avg_r": 0.50, "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.21}],
+        "portfolio_sim": {"policies": [
+            {"policy": "hold", "cagr_pct": 31.9, "total_return_pct": 203.6,
+             "spy_return_pct": 95.9, "max_drawdown_pct": 21.2},
+        ]},
+    }
+    rec = bt._build_recommendation(report)
+    topics = {item["topic"] for item in rec["items"]}
+
+    assert rec["headline"] is None
+    # Nothing may be sourced from the legacy policy book.
+    assert "benchmark" not in topics
+    assert "exit" not in topics
+