research: park Phase B fip breadth; race guard and compact evidence

Log the 21:14 orphan as a snapshot-build race, rewrite the context table to
authoritative ICs only, and soften the vol-tilt warning. Add extender completion
manifest + breadth refuse guard; strip intermediate/orphaned reports; park the
thread (no book sim, no deploy).

README.md

@@ -263,7 +263,7 @@ A systematic single-variable sweep (offline prod snapshot, production gate/rank/
 Two findings future sessions must not re-litigate:
 
 - **The "inverse-vol sizing win" (July 2026) was mis-attributed — do not resurrect.** The diagnostic sized `notional = equity × 1% / vol_6m`, and the 20% notional cap bound on 95% of entries, so it actually measured "~5 positions × 20% notional each" — a concentration/risk-appetite bump economically equivalent to raising risk to 1.5%, not vol-managed sizing. Genuine inverse-vol sizing (risk budget × median-vol/vol) cuts max drawdown to −18.2% but costs ~58pp total return at flat Sharpe: a risk-preference trade, not edge.
-- **`fip_id` — Da/Gurun/Warachka information discreteness over the 12-1 formation window — is the strongest cross-sectional signal measured on this universe: IC −0.045, t = −2.91, correct sign (continuous-information winners outperform).** It clears the iron-rule bar in isolation but does not improve this book (the momentum gate already captures the effect in-sample). It is the prime ranking/gate candidate **if the universe broadens** (e.g. `nasdaq_all`).
+- **`fip_id` — Da/Gurun/Warachka information discreteness over the 12-1 formation window — is the strongest cross-sectional signal on the *production* universe: IC −0.045, t = −2.91, correct sign (continuous-information winners outperform).** It clears the iron-rule bar in isolation but does not improve this book (the momentum gate already captures the effect in-sample). **Phase B (liquid-1500, research branch only):** unconditional fip fails iron rule (−0.017 / t −1.85); mom-conditional fip (−0.088 / t −4.58) is a *book-tilt candidate only* after a baseline breadth mom book is proven. Do **not** cite the orphaned 21:14 row (+0.0575) — it raced a partial `research.sqlite`. See `docs/research/fip-breadth-ic.md`.
 
 ### The iron rule for strategy changes
 
@@ -281,7 +281,7 @@ Corollaries: never let an unvalidated score gate setups; the outcome evaluator m
 
 1. **Forward monitor the promoted strategy** — the production UI now behaves like a portfolio monitor for the current strategy, with selectable lookbacks and SPY comparison. Forward paper-trade months are the only evidence the snapshot cannot provide; the July 2026 tuning pass closed every in-sample lead. (Trailing-stop sensitivity and the max-15 capacity check are done — see the tuning table above.)
 2. **Signal context snapshots** — accumulate point-in-time composite/sentiment/fundamental context for every new setup so the discretionary overlay can be tested forward-only.
-3. **More breadth, not more history** — widening the ranked universe (e.g. `nasdaq_all`) strengthens each week's cross-section and the IC t-stat, even if only the top slice is traded. Now doubly motivated: it is also where the strong `fip_id` signal (see tuning findings) could become tradeable. (Deeper history was considered and declined.)
+3. **Breadth is no longer free leverage** — Phase B found residual-mom t-stat *fell* on liquid-1500 vs the 505-name fingerprint (0.055/1.98 → 0.029/1.33). Any breadth book must clear a pre-registered baseline arm before fip tilts mean anything. (Deeper history was considered and declined.)
 
 ## Key Use Cases
 

docs/research/README.md

@@ -140,9 +140,9 @@ knobs.
 
 | Lead | Why it's interesting | Blocker |
 |---|---|---|
-| **Near-close / MOC execution (ops)** | Recovers overnight momentum drift left on the table by a morning EU scan; evidence closed | Implement schedule + partial-bar scan path; one qualifying scan/day only |
+| **Near-close / MOC execution (ops)** | Recovers overnight momentum drift left on the table by a morning EU scan; evidence closed | Schedule + fill_mode shipped; live paper validation ongoing |
-| **`fip_id`** | Fingerprint IC −0.045 / t −2.91 on prod book; display-only on ticker technicals | **Phase B:** unconditional liquid-Nasdaq IC fails iron-rule **sign**; **mom-conditional** fip IC −0.088 / t −4.58 (alive as tilt candidate only). See [fip-breadth-ic.md](fip-breadth-ic.md) |
+| **`fip_id` / liquid breadth** | Fingerprint −0.045 / t −2.91; liquid unconditional **−0.017 / t −1.85** (not green); mom-conditional **−0.088 / t −4.58** | **Parked.** Orphan +0.0575 died (snapshot race). Breadth did not strengthen resid-mom t-stat. Optional reopen = pre-registered two-arm liquid-1500 book first. See [fip-breadth-ic.md](fip-breadth-ic.md) |
-| **Broader universe** | Composition changes factor signs (fip tug-of-war; high-vol junk) | Any prod broaden must **re-validate 80/20 high-vol tilt** first; offline research only for now |
+| **Broader universe** | Composition changes factor signs (fip tug-of-war); vol-tilt on breadth is only a **directional hypothesis** (auth. −0.048 / t −1.36) | Any prod broaden must re-validate 80/20 tilt; offline research only; research.sqlite requires completion manifest |
 | **Forward paper-trade record** | The only true out-of-sample evidence the snapshot cannot give | Time; mark entries at actual near-close fill once ops ships |
 | **Better target model for clear-air names** | The return is demonstrably there (#2 wins on raw CAGR in *both* train and test); it's the *flat* 3× ATR target that makes it too expensive in risk | Needs a per-name model, not a constant k×ATR |
 
@@ -169,6 +169,11 @@ knobs.
 6. **Fill timing is part of the strategy.** Close-fill reports are not deployable
    numbers for an overnight scanner. Grade promotion under the fill mode you will
    actually trade.
+7. **Incomplete research artifacts are not results.** The Phase B +0.0575 / t +5.12
+   liquid-fip row was orphaned within hours: it raced a partially built
+   `research.sqlite`. Extender now writes a completion manifest; breadth mode
+   refuses without a match. Same class of protection as calendar-truncation
+   asserts — do not re-mythologize numbers computed on half a universe.
 
 ---
 

docs/research/fip-breadth-ic.md

@@ -1,13 +1,15 @@
 # Broad-universe fip_id IC research (Phase B)
 
-**Status:** unconditional fip closed; mom-conditional lead confirmed on single-sourced path.  
+**Status:** **Parked / closed for now.** Unconditional fip not green; mom-conditional lead logged; breadth-momentum thesis challenged. No book sim until reopen.  
-**Production impact:** none. Display card remains context-only.
+**Production impact:** none. Display card remains context-only. No deploy from this work.  
+**Artifacts:** research log + compact reports + env-gated harness hooks; tooling stays for a future reopen.
 
 ## Scope
 
 - Research only — production universe, gate, scanner, schedule unchanged.
 - Snapshot: `research.sqlite` (~4,650 tickers = prod + nasdaq_all extend).
 - Liquid mask: top **1,500** by point-in-time 63d median $vol, price ≥ **$5**/week.
+- **Completion manifest required:** extender writes `<snapshot>.manifest.json`; breadth runners refuse without a matching complete manifest (see §Race guard).
 
 ## Caveats
 
@@ -15,6 +17,7 @@
 - IEX volume undercount → relative $vol rank only.
 - Pool skew: Nasdaq-heavy; missing pure NYSE mid-caps.
 - Do not mix multi-signal tables across universe baselines.
+- **Do not cite orphaned 21:14 numbers** (see below).
 
 ---
 
@@ -28,47 +31,83 @@
 
 **Pass.** Formula + pipeline trustworthy.
 
+Residual momentum on the same fingerprint (what the production book ranks on): **IC +0.055 / t +1.98**.
+
 ---
 
-## Discrepancy (must not be papered over)
+## The orphan (21:14) — root cause
 
 | Source | fip IC (liquid ~1500) | t |
 |---|---:|---:|
-| Report `fip-breadth-20260718-211440-breadth.json` | **+0.0575** | **+5.12** |
+| Orphan run 21:14 (removed from tree; was `fip-breadth-20260718-211440-breadth.json`) | **+0.0575** | **+5.12** |
-| Single-sourced recompute (2026-07-19) | **−0.0168** | **−1.85** |
+| Single-sourced recompute on complete snapshot (2026-07-19) | **−0.0168** | **−1.85** |
 
 That is a **sign disagreement** on the same intended quantity. Method rule: the number you cannot reconcile is the number you cannot use.
 
-### What we did
+### Verdict: orphaned — raced the snapshot build
 
-1. **Single-sourced the mask** — diagnostics call harness `_signal_series` + `_filter_liquid_breadth_week_rich` only (no parallel mask).
+**Not** “orphaned, unexplained.” The mechanism is derivable from the table itself:
-2. **Documented avg_cross_section semantics** — always **post-mask** IC sample size.
-3. **Logged pre-mask stats** so “did top-N bind?” is answerable.
 
-### Authoritative unconditional liquid fip (post-reconciliation)
+1. **Code was not the difference.** Reconcile shows the old harness path and the new shared filter produce **identical** results on current data (−0.0168 / −1.85). The implementation fork is closed.
+2. **Data was the difference.** On today’s complete snapshot the liquid mask **binds in 97.1% of weeks** at top-N = 1,500. Dense signals (e.g. `vol_6m`) post-mask at **exactly 1,500**. The orphaned report’s `vol_6m` averaged **~1,475** cross-section — a masked run on complete data cannot do that. At 21:14 the eligible pool was smaller than 1,500 and the mask never bound.
+3. **Timeline fits.** Extender fixes landed ~20:32 / 20:34; full fetch takes ~30 minutes; breadth run fired **21:14** against a partially built `research.sqlite`. Every number in that report was computed on an incomplete universe.
+
+**Do not cite +0.0575 / t +5.12.** It survived less than six hours of contact with project discipline — that is the system working, not time wasted. The orphan JSON was **deleted from the tree** (still in Git history) so it cannot be re-imported as evidence.
+
+**Kept artifacts**
+
+| File | Role |
+|---|---|
+| `reports/fip-reconcile-20260719-000520.json` | Authoritative single-sourced ICs (compact; membership dumps stripped) |
+| `reports/fip-breadth-20260718-211440-fingerprint.json` | Prod fingerprint pass |
+
+### Race guard (same class as calendar truncation)
+
+| Piece | Behavior |
+|---|---|
+| `extend_snapshot_universe.py` | Clears any prior manifest on start; on full completion writes `<output>.manifest.json` with `complete=true`, ticker / OHLCV / rank_only counts, `finished_at`. `--limit` smoke runs write `complete=false`. |
+| `run_fip_breadth_research.py` / `run_fip_breadth_diagnostics.py` | **Refuse** breadth mode unless a matching complete manifest exists and live counts equal the recorded totals. |
+
+Helper: `scripts/research_snapshot_manifest.py`.
+
+---
+
+## Authoritative unconditional liquid fip (post-reconciliation)
 
 | metric | value |
 |---|---:|
 | mean_ic | **−0.0168** |
 | ic_t_stat | **−1.85** |
 | weeks | 35 |
-| avg_cross_section (**post-mask**) | 1471.2 |
+| avg_cross_section (**post-mask IC sample**) | 1471.2 |
 | avg_raw_pool | 3214.4 |
 | avg_eligible_pre_mask | **2338.4** |
 | mask_binds_pct | **97.1%** |
 | reliable | true |
 
-**Mask binds hard** (eligible ≫ 1500). The hypothesis that “1471 meant the mask never bound / unmasked +5σ” is **false**.
+**Mask binds hard** on complete data (eligible ≫ 1500). Post-mask IC N for fip is ~1471 because not every liquid name has a valid 12-1 fip path — that is signal availability, not a non-binding mask. Contrast orphan `vol_6m` avg N ~1475 vs complete-data `vol_6m` avg N **1500**.
 
 Harness `_signal_evaluation` vs manual IC through the same filter: **exact match** (−0.0168 / −1.85).
 
-### Verdict on the orphan
+**Iron rule unconditional:** **not green** (|IC| 0.017 < 0.03), correct mild-negative sign.
 
-The **+0.0575 / t +5.12** row is **orphaned**. Do not cite it. Root cause of that single run is not fully forensic-reconstructed (no dual dump from the original process remains), but every single-sourced recompute on this snapshot lands near **−0.017**, and the tier blend (≈800×−0.035 + ≈670×+0.014)/1471 ≈ **−0.013** is internally consistent with that number—not with +0.058.
+---
 
-**Iron rule unconditional:** still **not green** (|IC| 0.017 < 0.03), and now with the correct mild-negative sign.
+## Context table (orphaned 21:14 vs authoritative) — kill the myth numbers
 
-Artifact: `reports/fip-reconcile-20260719-000520.json`
+The context table died with the orphan. **−0.16 must not survive in the log.**
+
+| signal (liquid ~1500) | orphaned (21:14) | authoritative (shared filter) | consequence |
+|---|---:|---:|---|
+| **vol_6m** | −0.16 / t **−6.1** | **−0.048 / t −1.36** | “High-vol tilt harmful on breadth” **downgrades from finding to directional hypothesis** — not significant |
+| **raw mom** (`mom_12_1`) | +0.10 / t +4.6 | **+0.046 / t +1.91** | Below iron-rule bar on this pool |
+| **resid mom** (`mom_12_1_resid`) | +0.04 / t +2.3 | **+0.029 / t +1.33** | Ditto, and weaker than raw |
+
+### Breadth-momentum thesis — challenged
+
+That last pair is the sobering one. Momentum on liquid breadth is **marginal**. The “more breadth strengthens the momentum t-stat” thesis that motivated Phase B is **empirically wrong on this pool**: same 35 weeks, triple the names, residual-mom t-stat **fell** versus the 505-name fingerprint (**0.055 / 1.98** → **0.029 / 1.33**). The clean momentum edge lives in the large-cap universe already traded.
+
+Meanwhile the strongest reliable signal on liquid breadth is now **mom-conditional fip** (−0.088 / −4.58) — but a fip tilt presupposes a breadth momentum book worth tilting, and that is no longer free.
 
 ---
 
@@ -107,27 +146,57 @@ Computed on the **same single-sourced path** as the authoritative −0.017. This
 | Decision | |
 |---|---|
 | Unconditional fip | **Closed** for production |
-| Mom-conditional fip | **Alive as book-tilt candidate only** — book sim before any gate talk |
+| Mom-conditional fip | **Alive as book-tilt candidate only** — and only after a baseline breadth book proves itself |
 | Display card | Stays |
 | Production change | **None** |
 
 ---
 
-## Vol-tilt / residual-mom warning (any future breadth move)
+## Vol-tilt warning (softened)
 
 | signal (liquid, single-sourced) | IC | t |
 |---|---:|---:|
-| vol_6m | −0.048 | −1.4 |
+| vol_6m | −0.048 | **−1.36** |
-| mom_12_1 | +0.046 | +1.9 |
+| mom_12_1 | +0.046 | +1.91 |
-| mom_12_1_resid | +0.029 | +1.3 |
+| mom_12_1_resid | +0.029 | +1.33 |
 
-High-vol names tend to underperform on this pool relative to a clean S&P-like book. Production **80/20 high-vol tilt** was validated on S&P-like names. **If the universe ever broadens in production, re-validate that tilt first** — it can flip from mildly helpful to harmful. Raw momentum also looks stronger than SPY residualization here (noisier fit for small caps).
+High-vol names **tend** to underperform on this pool relative to a clean S&P-like book — that is a **directional hypothesis**, not a finding. Production **80/20 high-vol tilt** was validated on S&P-like names. If the universe ever broadens in production, re-validate that tilt; do not treat the orphaned −0.16 / t −6.1 as evidence.
+
+---
+
+## What this means for the book experiment
+
+A fip tilt presupposes a breadth momentum book worth tilting — **that is no longer free.**
+
+**Caution against over-reacting the other way:** modest cross-sectional IC does not preclude a good book. The 505-name book turns resid-mom IC ~0.055 into Sharpe ~2 because the gate trades the **extreme tail**, not the linear sort. The breadth book might still work; it just has to **prove it** before the fip arm means anything. If the baseline cannot clearly beat the existing production book’s territory, fip’s future is a footnote regardless of −4.58.
+
+### Parked next step (if reopened): pre-registered two-arm design
+
+Not started — **design only**, pre-register before any sim:
+
+| Arm | Definition |
+|---|---|
+| **A — baseline** | Top-quintile residual (or raw — pick one and lock) momentum book on liquid-1500; **no fip**; honest costs; next-open or near-close fills; production-like capacity / risk / stops |
+| **B — +fip tilt** | Same book + mom-conditional fip tilt (among mom winners, prefer smoother paths / negative fip_id) |
+
+| Grade on | Spec |
+|---|---|
+| Split | Entry-date train / validation (`BACKTEST_HOLDOUT_SPLIT` naming — not pristine holdout) |
+| Metrics | Sharpe + Mertens/Lo SE, PSR, **DSR**; max DD; turnover; cost drag |
+| Promote bar | Arm A must be in production-book territory first; Arm B must beat A on validation with DSR-aware multiple-testing honesty |
+| Fail-closed | If A fails, fip is a footnote; do not shop tilts on a dead baseline |
 
 ---
 
 ## How to re-run (research branch only)
 
 ```powershell
+# 1) Full extend writes completion manifest (required)
+.\.venv\Scripts\python.exe scripts\extend_snapshot_universe.py `
+  --source backtest_snapshots\prod.sqlite `
+  --output backtest_snapshots\research.sqlite
+
+# 2) Breadth / diagnostics refuse without matching manifest
 .\.venv\Scripts\python.exe scripts\run_fip_breadth_diagnostics.py `
   --research-snapshot backtest_snapshots\research.sqlite `
   --prod-snapshot backtest_snapshots\prod.sqlite `
@@ -139,7 +208,9 @@ High-vol names tend to underperform on this pool relative to a clean S&P-like bo
 ## Bottom line
 
 1. Formal iron-rule screen: **not green** either before or after reconciliation.  
-2. **+0.0575 / +5.12 is orphaned** — authoritative unconditional liquid fip is **−0.017 / −1.9**; mask binds (~97%).  
+2. **+0.0575 / +5.12 is orphaned: raced the snapshot build** — authoritative unconditional liquid fip is **−0.017 / −1.9**; mask binds (~97%) on complete data.  
-3. Compositional tug-of-war is the right story; jumpiness premium is not.  
+3. Context-table myths die with the orphan: **vol −0.16 is not real**; authoritative vol is **−0.048 / t −1.36** (directional only).  
-4. **Mom-conditional −0.088 / −4.6 stands on the single-sourced path** → optional next research step is a **book** A/B, not a gate wire-in.  
+4. Compositional tug-of-war is the right story; jumpiness premium is not.  
-5. Log any future reader who sees both numbers: trust the reconcile artifact, not the orphaned breadth headline.
+5. **Breadth does not strengthen residual-mom t-stat** on this pool (0.055/1.98 → 0.029/1.33).  
+6. **Mom-conditional −0.088 / −4.6 stands** on the single-sourced path → optional next step is a **pre-registered two-arm breadth book** (baseline first), not a gate wire-in.  
+7. Manifest guard is in place so the race cannot recur silently.

reports/README.md

@@ -41,3 +41,23 @@ rejected stop-adjustment path, and add no decision evidence beyond the final
 daily matrix and narrative. Their matching one-off runners were removed too.
 All remain recoverable from Git history. Rebuildable candidate pickle caches
 are intentionally ignored and must not be committed.
+
+### Phase B fip breadth IC (2026-07-18/19) — compact evidence
+
+Canonical artifacts:
+
+- `fip-reconcile-20260719-000520.json` — single-sourced authoritative ICs
+  (unconditional liquid fip, tiers, prod-subset, mom-conditional, context
+  signals). Membership symbol dumps stripped after the decision; narrative in
+  [`docs/research/fip-breadth-ic.md`](../docs/research/fip-breadth-ic.md).
+- `fip-breadth-20260718-211440-fingerprint.json` — prod-snapshot fingerprint
+  pass (fip IC −0.045 / t −2.91).
+
+Removed as superseded / dangerous intermediate noise (recoverable from Git):
+
+- `fip-breadth-20260718-211440-breadth.json` (+ wrapper) — **orphaned** +0.0575
+  / t +5.12 from racing a partial `research.sqlite`. Kept out of the tree so it
+  cannot be re-mythologized.
+- `fip-breadth-20260718-194828*.json` — fingerprint-only partial run.
+- `fip-breadth-diagnostics-20260718-213705.json` and `…-213908.json` — dual-path
+  diagnostics superseded by the single-sourced reconcile.

reports/fip-breadth-20260718-194828-fingerprint.json

@@ -1,578 +0,0 @@
-{
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-18T18:21:28.359793+00:00",
-  "tickers": 506,
-  "rank_only_tickers": 0,
-  "candidates": 202765,
-  "qualified": 1086,
-  "params": {
-    "step_days": 5,
-    "step_sessions": 5,
-    "entry_cadence": "weekly",
-    "signal_eval_cadence": "weekly",
-    "horizon_days": 30,
-    "min_lookback": 60,
-    "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
-    "target_model": "production_gtl",
-    "target_model_label": "Live GTL (production)",
-    "is_production_target_model": true,
-    "production_reentry_policy": "gate_reset",
-    "liquid_breadth_top_n": null,
-    "liquid_min_price": null,
-    "signal_eval_only": true
-  },
-  "activation": {
-    "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
-    "min_rr": 2.0,
-    "min_confidence": 0.0,
-    "require_high_conviction": false,
-    "exclude_conflicts": false,
-    "exclude_neutral": true
-  },
-  "overall_qualified": {
-    "total": 1086,
-    "wins": 379,
-    "losses": 591,
-    "expired": 116,
-    "hit_rate": 39.1,
-    "avg_r": 0.255,
-    "total_r": 276.76,
-    "net_avg_r": 0.209,
-    "net_total_r": 226.56,
-    "best_r": 8.85,
-    "worst_r": -3.38,
-    "avg_hold_days": 12.0,
-    "net_r_per_day": 0.0174,
-    "median_net_r": -1.031,
-    "profit_factor": 1.34,
-    "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.049
-  },
-  "overall_all": {
-    "total": 202765,
-    "wins": 82220,
-    "losses": 113809,
-    "expired": 6736,
-    "hit_rate": 41.9,
-    "avg_r": -0.04,
-    "total_r": -8186.18,
-    "net_avg_r": -0.095,
-    "net_total_r": -19184.55,
-    "best_r": 9.24,
-    "worst_r": -16.42,
-    "avg_hold_days": 8.2,
-    "net_r_per_day": -0.0115,
-    "median_net_r": -1.035,
-    "profit_factor": 0.85,
-    "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.22
-  },
-  "by_direction": {
-    "long": {
-      "total": 1086,
-      "wins": 379,
-      "losses": 591,
-      "expired": 116,
-      "hit_rate": 39.1,
-      "avg_r": 0.255,
-      "total_r": 276.76,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.209,
-      "net_total_r": 226.56,
-      "best_r": 8.85,
-      "worst_r": -3.38,
-      "avg_hold_days": 12.0,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0174,
-      "median_net_r": -1.031,
-      "profit_factor": 1.34,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.049
-    },
-    "short": {
-      "total": 0,
-      "wins": 0,
-      "losses": 0,
-      "expired": 0,
-      "hit_rate": null,
-      "avg_r": null,
-      "total_r": null,
-      "net_avg_r": null,
-      "net_total_r": null,
-      "best_r": null,
-      "worst_r": null,
-      "avg_hold_days": null,
-      "net_r_per_day": null,
-      "median_net_r": null,
-      "profit_factor": null,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": null
-    }
-  },
-  "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
-  "sweep": [
-    {
-      "min_momentum_percentile": 90.0,
-      "total": 497,
-      "wins": 177,
-      "losses": 269,
-      "expired": 51,
-      "hit_rate": 39.7,
-      "avg_r": 0.276,
-      "total_r": 137.05,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.235,
-      "net_total_r": 116.55,
-      "best_r": 8.85,
-      "worst_r": -3.38,
-      "avg_hold_days": 11.8,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0199,
-      "median_net_r": -1.026,
-      "profit_factor": 1.39,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.071
-    },
-    {
-      "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
-      "total": 1086,
-      "wins": 379,
-      "losses": 591,
-      "expired": 116,
-      "hit_rate": 39.1,
-      "avg_r": 0.255,
-      "total_r": 276.76,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.209,
-      "net_total_r": 226.56,
-      "best_r": 8.85,
-      "worst_r": -3.38,
-      "avg_hold_days": 12.0,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0174,
-      "median_net_r": -1.031,
-      "profit_factor": 1.34,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.049
-    },
-    {
-      "min_momentum_percentile": 70.0,
-      "total": 1841,
-      "wins": 597,
-      "losses": 1062,
-      "expired": 182,
-      "hit_rate": 36.0,
-      "avg_r": 0.152,
-      "total_r": 280.26,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.104,
-      "net_total_r": 190.75,
-      "best_r": 8.85,
-      "worst_r": -4.21,
-      "avg_hold_days": 11.8,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0088,
-      "median_net_r": -1.037,
-      "profit_factor": 1.16,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.055
-    },
-    {
-      "min_momentum_percentile": 60.0,
-      "total": 2772,
-      "wins": 873,
-      "losses": 1611,
-      "expired": 288,
-      "hit_rate": 35.1,
-      "avg_r": 0.126,
-      "total_r": 348.07,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.075,
-      "net_total_r": 209.25,
-      "best_r": 8.85,
-      "worst_r": -4.21,
-      "avg_hold_days": 12.0,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0063,
-      "median_net_r": -1.04,
-      "profit_factor": 1.12,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.077
-    },
-    {
-      "min_momentum_percentile": 50.0,
-      "total": 3901,
-      "wins": 1182,
-      "losses": 2295,
-      "expired": 424,
-      "hit_rate": 34.0,
-      "avg_r": 0.089,
-      "total_r": 345.37,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.038,
-      "net_total_r": 146.96,
-      "best_r": 8.85,
-      "worst_r": -4.86,
-      "avg_hold_days": 12.1,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0031,
-      "median_net_r": -1.042,
-      "profit_factor": 1.06,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.114
-    },
-    {
-      "min_momentum_percentile": 0.0,
-      "total": 14588,
-      "wins": 3719,
-      "losses": 9271,
-      "expired": 1598,
-      "hit_rate": 28.6,
-      "avg_r": -0.065,
-      "total_r": -952.08,
-      "net_avg_r": -0.115,
-      "net_total_r": -1676.86,
-      "best_r": 9.24,
-      "worst_r": -15.94,
-      "avg_hold_days": 12.1,
-      "net_r_per_day": -0.0095,
-      "median_net_r": -1.043,
-      "profit_factor": 0.84,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.275
-    }
-  ],
-  "gate_ablation": [
-    {
-      "variant": "all_floors",
-      "total": 1086,
-      "wins": 379,
-      "losses": 591,
-      "expired": 116,
-      "hit_rate": 39.1,
-      "avg_r": 0.255,
-      "total_r": 276.76,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.209,
-      "net_total_r": 226.56,
-      "best_r": 8.85,
-      "worst_r": -3.38,
-      "avg_hold_days": 12.0,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0174,
-      "median_net_r": -1.031,
-      "profit_factor": 1.34,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.049,
-      "hold_days": 30,
-      "hold_avg_r": 0.631,
-      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.585,
-      "hold_total_r": 684.97
-    },
-    {
-      "variant": "no_confidence_floor",
-      "total": 1093,
-      "wins": 380,
-      "losses": 596,
-      "expired": 117,
-      "hit_rate": 38.9,
-      "avg_r": 0.25,
-      "total_r": 273.55,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.204,
-      "net_total_r": 222.99,
-      "best_r": 8.85,
-      "worst_r": -3.38,
-      "avg_hold_days": 11.9,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0171,
-      "median_net_r": -1.031,
-      "profit_factor": 1.33,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.045,
-      "hold_days": 30,
-      "hold_avg_r": 0.626,
-      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.58,
-      "hold_total_r": 684.08
-    },
-    {
-      "variant": "no_rr_floor",
-      "total": 6849,
-      "wins": 3235,
-      "losses": 3409,
-      "expired": 205,
-      "hit_rate": 48.7,
-      "avg_r": 0.112,
-      "total_r": 770.17,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.061,
-      "net_total_r": 418.96,
-      "best_r": 8.85,
-      "worst_r": -5.16,
-      "avg_hold_days": 7.9,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0078,
-      "median_net_r": -0.061,
-      "profit_factor": 1.11,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.061,
-      "hold_days": 30,
-      "hold_avg_r": 0.354,
-      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.303,
-      "hold_total_r": 2425.86
-    },
-    {
-      "variant": "no_neutral_exclusion",
-      "total": 2313,
-      "wins": 770,
-      "losses": 1279,
-      "expired": 264,
-      "hit_rate": 37.6,
-      "avg_r": 0.2,
-      "total_r": 462.35,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.154,
-      "net_total_r": 355.89,
-      "best_r": 8.85,
-      "worst_r": -3.38,
-      "avg_hold_days": 12.6,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0122,
-      "median_net_r": -1.031,
-      "profit_factor": 1.25,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.004,
-      "hold_days": 30,
-      "hold_avg_r": 0.583,
-      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.537,
-      "hold_total_r": 1348.89
-    },
-    {
-      "variant": "momentum_only",
-      "total": 14696,
-      "wins": 6827,
-      "losses": 7359,
-      "expired": 510,
-      "hit_rate": 48.1,
-      "avg_r": 0.114,
-      "total_r": 1669.64,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.064,
-      "net_total_r": 936.93,
-      "best_r": 8.85,
-      "worst_r": -5.71,
-      "avg_hold_days": 8.4,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0076,
-      "median_net_r": -1.013,
-      "profit_factor": 1.11,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.055,
-      "hold_days": 30,
-      "hold_avg_r": 0.395,
-      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.345,
-      "hold_total_r": 5798.82
-    }
-  ],
-  "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.",
-  "time_exit_sweep": [
-    {
-      "hold_days": 5,
-      "total": 1086,
-      "wins": 603,
-      "win_rate": 55.5,
-      "avg_r": 0.175,
-      "total_r": 190.16,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.129,
-      "net_total_r": 139.97,
-      "best_r": 5.09,
-      "worst_r": -2.51,
-      "avg_hold_days": 4.5,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0285,
-      "median_net_r": 0.115,
-      "profit_factor": 1.36,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.002
-    },
-    {
-      "hold_days": 10,
-      "total": 1086,
-      "wins": 559,
-      "win_rate": 51.5,
-      "avg_r": 0.357,
-      "total_r": 387.9,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.311,
-      "net_total_r": 337.7,
-      "best_r": 6.73,
-      "worst_r": -2.51,
-      "avg_hold_days": 7.9,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0395,
-      "median_net_r": 0.031,
-      "profit_factor": 1.67,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.112
-    },
-    {
-      "hold_days": 21,
-      "total": 1086,
-      "wins": 487,
-      "win_rate": 44.8,
-      "avg_r": 0.525,
-      "total_r": 570.33,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.479,
-      "net_total_r": 520.14,
-      "best_r": 9.86,
-      "worst_r": -3.38,
-      "avg_hold_days": 13.7,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0349,
-      "median_net_r": -1.027,
-      "profit_factor": 1.81,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.191
-    },
-    {
-      "hold_days": 30,
-      "total": 1086,
-      "wins": 434,
-      "win_rate": 40.0,
-      "avg_r": 0.631,
-      "total_r": 684.97,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.585,
-      "net_total_r": 634.78,
-      "best_r": 12.87,
-      "worst_r": -3.38,
-      "avg_hold_days": 17.8,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0329,
-      "median_net_r": -1.033,
-      "profit_factor": 1.9,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.212
-    }
-  ],
-  "portfolio_sim": {
-    "params": {
-      "starting_capital": 10000.0,
-      "max_positions": 10,
-      "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
-      "notional_cap_pct": 20.0,
-      "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
-      "hold_days": 30
-    },
-    "policies": [],
-    "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends."
-  },
-  "strategy_variants": {
-    "variants": [],
-    "note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays."
-  },
-  "exit_policy_variants": {
-    "variants": [],
-    "note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline."
-  },
-  "portfolio_monitor": null,
-  "production_cadence_comparison": null,
-  "holdout": null,
-  "min_rr_sweep": null,
-  "target_model_diagnostics": {
-    "target_model": "production_gtl",
-    "target_model_label": "Live GTL (production)",
-    "candidate_count": 202765,
-    "primary_source_counts": {
-      "pivot_point": 196290,
-      "range_grid": 180036
-    },
-    "primary_round_only": 0,
-    "primary_strength_100": 138596,
-    "avg_primary_strength": 80.109,
-    "avg_primary_distance_atr": 2.293,
-    "avg_primary_rejection_count": 41.908,
-    "avg_raw_level_count": 53.204,
-    "avg_gate_level_count": 53.204
-  },
-  "signal_eval": [
-    {
-      "signal": "vol_6m",
-      "weeks": 39,
-      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
-      "mean_ic": 0.0609,
-      "ic_t_stat": 1.48,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 64.1,
-      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0337,
-      "reliable": true
-    },
-    {
-      "signal": "mom_12_1_resid",
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
-      "mean_ic": 0.0552,
-      "ic_t_stat": 1.98,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 60.0,
-      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0207,
-      "reliable": true
-    },
-    {
-      "signal": "mom_12_1",
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
-      "mean_ic": 0.0531,
-      "ic_t_stat": 1.61,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 65.7,
-      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0206,
-      "reliable": true
-    },
-    {
-      "signal": "trend_200",
-      "weeks": 37,
-      "avg_cross_section": 497.9,
-      "mean_ic": 0.0161,
-      "ic_t_stat": 0.44,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 59.5,
-      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.006,
-      "reliable": true
-    },
-    {
-      "signal": "reversal_1m",
-      "weeks": 43,
-      "avg_cross_section": 498.7,
-      "mean_ic": 0.0059,
-      "ic_t_stat": 0.22,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 53.5,
-      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0053,
-      "reliable": true
-    },
-    {
-      "signal": "mom_6_1",
-      "weeks": 39,
-      "avg_cross_section": 498.2,
-      "mean_ic": 0.0051,
-      "ic_t_stat": 0.21,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 56.4,
-      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0087,
-      "reliable": true
-    },
-    {
-      "signal": "mom_3_1",
-      "weeks": 42,
-      "avg_cross_section": 498.5,
-      "mean_ic": -0.0064,
-      "ic_t_stat": -0.25,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 50.0,
-      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0046,
-      "reliable": true
-    },
-    {
-      "signal": "high_52w",
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
-      "mean_ic": -0.0086,
-      "ic_t_stat": -0.26,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 54.3,
-      "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0088,
-      "reliable": true
-    },
-    {
-      "signal": "fip_id",
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
-      "mean_ic": -0.045,
-      "ic_t_stat": -2.91,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 25.7,
-      "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0168,
-      "reliable": true
-    }
-  ],
-  "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).",
-  "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.",
-  "recommendation": {
-    "headline": "Trade the qualified list long-only; hold 30 trading days with the initial ATR stop.",
-    "items": [
-      {
-        "topic": "exit",
-        "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+0.58R net/trade vs +0.21R for the S/R target exit)."
-      },
-      {
-        "topic": "gate",
-        "text": "Gate: the confidence floor adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs +0.01R/trade and adds 7 trades."
-      },
-      {
-        "topic": "gate",
-        "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.28R/trade under the hold exit)."
-      },
-      {
-        "topic": "gate",
-        "text": "Gate: keep the NEUTRAL exclusion (worth +0.05R/trade under the hold exit)."
-      },
-      {
-        "topic": "cutoff",
-        "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 90 has the best per-trade net (+0.23R over 497 setups)."
-      },
-      {
-        "topic": "robustness",
-        "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.21R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers."
-      }
-    ],
-    "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does."
-  },
-  "research_recommendation": {
-    "items": [],
-    "note": "Strategy variants unavailable; re-run the backtest after benchmark data is present."
-  }
-}

reports/fip-breadth-20260718-194828.json

@@ -1,21 +0,0 @@
-{
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-18T19:48:28.127710",
-  "liquid_breadth_top_n": 1500,
-  "liquid_min_price": 5.0,
-  "fingerprint": {
-    "signal": "fip_id",
-    "weeks": 35,
-    "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
-    "mean_ic": -0.045,
-    "ic_t_stat": -2.91,
-    "ic_positive_pct": 25.7,
-    "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0168,
-    "reliable": true,
-    "pass": true,
-    "expected_ic": -0.045,
-    "expected_t": -2.9
-  },
-  "breadth": null,
-  "verdict": null,
-  "fingerprint_report_path": "reports\\fip-breadth-20260718-194828-fingerprint.json"
-}

reports/fip-breadth-20260718-211440-breadth.json

@@ -1,596 +0,0 @@
-{
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-18T19:23:17.726528+00:00",
-  "tickers": 4650,
-  "rank_only_tickers": 4144,
-  "candidates": 202769,
-  "qualified": 1086,
-  "params": {
-    "step_days": 5,
-    "step_sessions": 5,
-    "entry_cadence": "weekly",
-    "signal_eval_cadence": "weekly",
-    "horizon_days": 30,
-    "min_lookback": 60,
-    "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
-    "target_model": "production_gtl",
-    "target_model_label": "Live GTL (production)",
-    "is_production_target_model": true,
-    "production_reentry_policy": "gate_reset",
-    "liquid_breadth_top_n": 1500,
-    "liquid_min_price": 5.0,
-    "signal_eval_only": true
-  },
-  "activation": {
-    "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
-    "min_rr": 2.0,
-    "min_confidence": 0.0,
-    "require_high_conviction": false,
-    "exclude_conflicts": false,
-    "exclude_neutral": true
-  },
-  "overall_qualified": {
-    "total": 1086,
-    "wins": 379,
-    "losses": 591,
-    "expired": 116,
-    "hit_rate": 39.1,
-    "avg_r": 0.255,
-    "total_r": 276.76,
-    "net_avg_r": 0.209,
-    "net_total_r": 226.56,
-    "best_r": 8.85,
-    "worst_r": -3.38,
-    "avg_hold_days": 12.0,
-    "net_r_per_day": 0.0174,
-    "median_net_r": -1.031,
-    "profit_factor": 1.34,
-    "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.049
-  },
-  "overall_all": {
-    "total": 202769,
-    "wins": 82221,
-    "losses": 113812,
-    "expired": 6736,
-    "hit_rate": 41.9,
-    "avg_r": -0.04,
-    "total_r": -8188.17,
-    "net_avg_r": -0.095,
-    "net_total_r": -19186.68,
-    "best_r": 9.24,
-    "worst_r": -16.42,
-    "avg_hold_days": 8.2,
-    "net_r_per_day": -0.0115,
-    "median_net_r": -1.035,
-    "profit_factor": 0.85,
-    "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.22
-  },
-  "by_direction": {
-    "long": {
-      "total": 1086,
-      "wins": 379,
-      "losses": 591,
-      "expired": 116,
-      "hit_rate": 39.1,
-      "avg_r": 0.255,
-      "total_r": 276.76,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.209,
-      "net_total_r": 226.56,
-      "best_r": 8.85,
-      "worst_r": -3.38,
-      "avg_hold_days": 12.0,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0174,
-      "median_net_r": -1.031,
-      "profit_factor": 1.34,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.049
-    },
-    "short": {
-      "total": 0,
-      "wins": 0,
-      "losses": 0,
-      "expired": 0,
-      "hit_rate": null,
-      "avg_r": null,
-      "total_r": null,
-      "net_avg_r": null,
-      "net_total_r": null,
-      "best_r": null,
-      "worst_r": null,
-      "avg_hold_days": null,
-      "net_r_per_day": null,
-      "median_net_r": null,
-      "profit_factor": null,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": null
-    }
-  },
-  "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
-  "sweep": [
-    {
-      "min_momentum_percentile": 90.0,
-      "total": 497,
-      "wins": 177,
-      "losses": 269,
-      "expired": 51,
-      "hit_rate": 39.7,
-      "avg_r": 0.276,
-      "total_r": 137.05,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.235,
-      "net_total_r": 116.55,
-      "best_r": 8.85,
-      "worst_r": -3.38,
-      "avg_hold_days": 11.8,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0199,
-      "median_net_r": -1.026,
-      "profit_factor": 1.39,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.071
-    },
-    {
-      "min_momentum_percentile": 80.0,
-      "total": 1086,
-      "wins": 379,
-      "losses": 591,
-      "expired": 116,
-      "hit_rate": 39.1,
-      "avg_r": 0.255,
-      "total_r": 276.76,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.209,
-      "net_total_r": 226.56,
-      "best_r": 8.85,
-      "worst_r": -3.38,
-      "avg_hold_days": 12.0,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0174,
-      "median_net_r": -1.031,
-      "profit_factor": 1.34,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.049
-    },
-    {
-      "min_momentum_percentile": 70.0,
-      "total": 1841,
-      "wins": 597,
-      "losses": 1062,
-      "expired": 182,
-      "hit_rate": 36.0,
-      "avg_r": 0.152,
-      "total_r": 280.26,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.104,
-      "net_total_r": 190.75,
-      "best_r": 8.85,
-      "worst_r": -4.21,
-      "avg_hold_days": 11.8,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0088,
-      "median_net_r": -1.037,
-      "profit_factor": 1.16,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.055
-    },
-    {
-      "min_momentum_percentile": 60.0,
-      "total": 2772,
-      "wins": 873,
-      "losses": 1611,
-      "expired": 288,
-      "hit_rate": 35.1,
-      "avg_r": 0.126,
-      "total_r": 348.07,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.075,
-      "net_total_r": 209.25,
-      "best_r": 8.85,
-      "worst_r": -4.21,
-      "avg_hold_days": 12.0,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0063,
-      "median_net_r": -1.04,
-      "profit_factor": 1.12,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.077
-    },
-    {
-      "min_momentum_percentile": 50.0,
-      "total": 3901,
-      "wins": 1182,
-      "losses": 2295,
-      "expired": 424,
-      "hit_rate": 34.0,
-      "avg_r": 0.089,
-      "total_r": 345.37,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.038,
-      "net_total_r": 146.96,
-      "best_r": 8.85,
-      "worst_r": -4.86,
-      "avg_hold_days": 12.1,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0031,
-      "median_net_r": -1.042,
-      "profit_factor": 1.06,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.114
-    },
-    {
-      "min_momentum_percentile": 0.0,
-      "total": 14589,
-      "wins": 3719,
-      "losses": 9272,
-      "expired": 1598,
-      "hit_rate": 28.6,
-      "avg_r": -0.065,
-      "total_r": -953.08,
-      "net_avg_r": -0.115,
-      "net_total_r": -1677.9,
-      "best_r": 9.24,
-      "worst_r": -15.94,
-      "avg_hold_days": 12.1,
-      "net_r_per_day": -0.0095,
-      "median_net_r": -1.043,
-      "profit_factor": 0.84,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.275
-    }
-  ],
-  "gate_ablation": [
-    {
-      "variant": "all_floors",
-      "total": 1086,
-      "wins": 379,
-      "losses": 591,
-      "expired": 116,
-      "hit_rate": 39.1,
-      "avg_r": 0.255,
-      "total_r": 276.76,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.209,
-      "net_total_r": 226.56,
-      "best_r": 8.85,
-      "worst_r": -3.38,
-      "avg_hold_days": 12.0,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0174,
-      "median_net_r": -1.031,
-      "profit_factor": 1.34,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.049,
-      "hold_days": 30,
-      "hold_avg_r": 0.631,
-      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.585,
-      "hold_total_r": 684.97
-    },
-    {
-      "variant": "no_confidence_floor",
-      "total": 1093,
-      "wins": 380,
-      "losses": 596,
-      "expired": 117,
-      "hit_rate": 38.9,
-      "avg_r": 0.25,
-      "total_r": 273.55,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.204,
-      "net_total_r": 222.99,
-      "best_r": 8.85,
-      "worst_r": -3.38,
-      "avg_hold_days": 11.9,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0171,
-      "median_net_r": -1.031,
-      "profit_factor": 1.33,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.045,
-      "hold_days": 30,
-      "hold_avg_r": 0.626,
-      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.58,
-      "hold_total_r": 684.08
-    },
-    {
-      "variant": "no_rr_floor",
-      "total": 6849,
-      "wins": 3235,
-      "losses": 3409,
-      "expired": 205,
-      "hit_rate": 48.7,
-      "avg_r": 0.112,
-      "total_r": 770.17,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.061,
-      "net_total_r": 418.96,
-      "best_r": 8.85,
-      "worst_r": -5.16,
-      "avg_hold_days": 7.9,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0078,
-      "median_net_r": -0.061,
-      "profit_factor": 1.11,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.061,
-      "hold_days": 30,
-      "hold_avg_r": 0.354,
-      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.303,
-      "hold_total_r": 2425.86
-    },
-    {
-      "variant": "no_neutral_exclusion",
-      "total": 2313,
-      "wins": 770,
-      "losses": 1279,
-      "expired": 264,
-      "hit_rate": 37.6,
-      "avg_r": 0.2,
-      "total_r": 462.35,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.154,
-      "net_total_r": 355.89,
-      "best_r": 8.85,
-      "worst_r": -3.38,
-      "avg_hold_days": 12.6,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0122,
-      "median_net_r": -1.031,
-      "profit_factor": 1.25,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.004,
-      "hold_days": 30,
-      "hold_avg_r": 0.583,
-      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.537,
-      "hold_total_r": 1348.89
-    },
-    {
-      "variant": "momentum_only",
-      "total": 14696,
-      "wins": 6827,
-      "losses": 7359,
-      "expired": 510,
-      "hit_rate": 48.1,
-      "avg_r": 0.114,
-      "total_r": 1669.64,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.064,
-      "net_total_r": 936.93,
-      "best_r": 8.85,
-      "worst_r": -5.71,
-      "avg_hold_days": 8.4,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0076,
-      "median_net_r": -1.013,
-      "profit_factor": 1.11,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.055,
-      "hold_days": 30,
-      "hold_avg_r": 0.395,
-      "hold_net_avg_r": 0.345,
-      "hold_total_r": 5798.82
-    }
-  ],
-  "gate_ablation_note": "Each row re-qualifies the same candidates at the current momentum cutoff (80) with one floor removed (long-only while the momentum gate is active). If dropping a floor doesn't hurt net expectancy, that floor isn't pulling its weight. The Hold columns grade the same variants under the hold-to-horizon time exit instead of the S/R target \u2014 the view that matters if the exit policy moves to a fixed hold.",
-  "time_exit_sweep": [
-    {
-      "hold_days": 5,
-      "total": 1086,
-      "wins": 603,
-      "win_rate": 55.5,
-      "avg_r": 0.175,
-      "total_r": 190.16,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.129,
-      "net_total_r": 139.97,
-      "best_r": 5.09,
-      "worst_r": -2.51,
-      "avg_hold_days": 4.5,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0285,
-      "median_net_r": 0.115,
-      "profit_factor": 1.36,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": -0.002
-    },
-    {
-      "hold_days": 10,
-      "total": 1086,
-      "wins": 559,
-      "win_rate": 51.5,
-      "avg_r": 0.357,
-      "total_r": 387.9,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.311,
-      "net_total_r": 337.7,
-      "best_r": 6.73,
-      "worst_r": -2.51,
-      "avg_hold_days": 7.9,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0395,
-      "median_net_r": 0.031,
-      "profit_factor": 1.67,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.112
-    },
-    {
-      "hold_days": 21,
-      "total": 1086,
-      "wins": 487,
-      "win_rate": 44.8,
-      "avg_r": 0.525,
-      "total_r": 570.33,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.479,
-      "net_total_r": 520.14,
-      "best_r": 9.86,
-      "worst_r": -3.38,
-      "avg_hold_days": 13.7,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0349,
-      "median_net_r": -1.027,
-      "profit_factor": 1.81,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.191
-    },
-    {
-      "hold_days": 30,
-      "total": 1086,
-      "wins": 434,
-      "win_rate": 40.0,
-      "avg_r": 0.631,
-      "total_r": 684.97,
-      "net_avg_r": 0.585,
-      "net_total_r": 634.78,
-      "best_r": 12.87,
-      "worst_r": -3.38,
-      "avg_hold_days": 17.8,
-      "net_r_per_day": 0.0329,
-      "median_net_r": -1.033,
-      "profit_factor": 1.9,
-      "net_avg_r_ex_top5": 0.212
-    }
-  ],
-  "portfolio_sim": {
-    "params": {
-      "starting_capital": 10000.0,
-      "max_positions": 10,
-      "risk_per_trade_pct": 1.0,
-      "notional_cap_pct": 20.0,
-      "cost_per_side_pct": 0.1,
-      "hold_days": 30
-    },
-    "policies": [],
-    "note": "One capital-constrained book over the same qualified setups the tables above grade per-setup: at most 10 concurrent positions (one per ticker), best momentum first, fixed-fractional risk sizing with a no-leverage cap, entries at the detection close, stops filled at the worse of stop or open. 'target' races the S/R target against the stop (timeout at the horizon); 'hold' keeps the initial stop and exits at the horizon close. SPY return is price-only over the same window. In-sample; no dividends."
-  },
-  "strategy_variants": {
-    "variants": [],
-    "note": "Research-only hold-to-horizon portfolio variants. Production now uses residual 12-1 momentum at cutoff 80; the remaining rows compare the legacy raw rank, raw cutoff 90, one max-15 capacity check, and volatility overlays."
-  },
-  "exit_policy_variants": {
-    "variants": [],
-    "note": "Research-only exit policies over the residual/high-vol 80/20 entry candidate. Every row uses the same entry qualification/ranking and changes only the exit discipline."
-  },
-  "portfolio_monitor": null,
-  "production_cadence_comparison": null,
-  "holdout": null,
-  "min_rr_sweep": null,
-  "target_model_diagnostics": {
-    "target_model": "production_gtl",
-    "target_model_label": "Live GTL (production)",
-    "candidate_count": 202769,
-    "primary_source_counts": {
-      "pivot_point": 196294,
-      "range_grid": 180039
-    },
-    "primary_round_only": 0,
-    "primary_strength_100": 138599,
-    "avg_primary_strength": 80.109,
-    "avg_primary_distance_atr": 2.293,
-    "avg_primary_rejection_count": 41.907,
-    "avg_raw_level_count": 53.204,
-    "avg_gate_level_count": 53.204
-  },
-  "signal_eval": [
-    {
-      "signal": "high_52w",
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 1471.2,
-      "mean_ic": 0.1283,
-      "ic_t_stat": 4.28,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 85.7,
-      "mean_quintile_spread": -0.1009,
-      "reliable": true,
-      "liquid_breadth_top_n": 1500,
-      "liquid_min_price": 5.0
-    },
-    {
-      "signal": "mom_12_1",
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 1471.2,
-      "mean_ic": 0.0997,
-      "ic_t_stat": 4.56,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 88.6,
-      "mean_quintile_spread": -0.1001,
-      "reliable": true,
-      "liquid_breadth_top_n": 1500,
-      "liquid_min_price": 5.0
-    },
-    {
-      "signal": "mom_6_1",
-      "weeks": 40,
-      "avg_cross_section": 1474.8,
-      "mean_ic": 0.0681,
-      "ic_t_stat": 3.45,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 77.5,
-      "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0322,
-      "reliable": true,
-      "liquid_breadth_top_n": 1500,
-      "liquid_min_price": 5.0
-    },
-    {
-      "signal": "fip_id",
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 1471.2,
-      "mean_ic": 0.0575,
-      "ic_t_stat": 5.12,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 88.6,
-      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0199,
-      "reliable": true,
-      "liquid_breadth_top_n": 1500,
-      "liquid_min_price": 5.0
-    },
-    {
-      "signal": "trend_200",
-      "weeks": 37,
-      "avg_cross_section": 1472.8,
-      "mean_ic": 0.0538,
-      "ic_t_stat": 2.33,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 75.7,
-      "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0675,
-      "reliable": true,
-      "liquid_breadth_top_n": 1500,
-      "liquid_min_price": 5.0
-    },
-    {
-      "signal": "mom_3_1",
-      "weeks": 42,
-      "avg_cross_section": 1476.0,
-      "mean_ic": 0.0523,
-      "ic_t_stat": 3.27,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 73.8,
-      "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0194,
-      "reliable": true,
-      "liquid_breadth_top_n": 1500,
-      "liquid_min_price": 5.0
-    },
-    {
-      "signal": "mom_12_1_resid",
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 1471.2,
-      "mean_ic": 0.0388,
-      "ic_t_stat": 2.28,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 74.3,
-      "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0542,
-      "reliable": true,
-      "liquid_breadth_top_n": 1500,
-      "liquid_min_price": 5.0
-    },
-    {
-      "signal": "reversal_1m",
-      "weeks": 43,
-      "avg_cross_section": 1476.6,
-      "mean_ic": 0.0155,
-      "ic_t_stat": 0.85,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 48.8,
-      "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0862,
-      "reliable": true,
-      "liquid_breadth_top_n": 1500,
-      "liquid_min_price": 5.0
-    },
-    {
-      "signal": "vol_6m",
-      "weeks": 40,
-      "avg_cross_section": 1474.8,
-      "mean_ic": -0.1584,
-      "ic_t_stat": -6.05,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 12.5,
-      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0164,
-      "reliable": true,
-      "liquid_breadth_top_n": 1500,
-      "liquid_min_price": 5.0
-    }
-  ],
-  "signal_eval_note": "Cross-sectional rank-IC of price-only signals vs the forward 30-day return (min 20 names/window). |IC| \u2273 0.03 with a consistent sign is a real (if small) edge; near 0 means ranking on it sorts nothing. Momentum factors and high_52w are expected positive; reversal_1m and vol_6m expected negative (mean-reversion / low-vol anomaly). IC is measured on non-overlapping windows; signals with fewer than 12 independent windows are flagged unreliable (too few regimes \u2014 deepen history with the Data Backfill job).",
-  "note": "Sentiment & fundamentals held neutral (no point-in-time history). Stops fill at the worse of the stop or the bar's open (gaps through the stop are modeled, so a loss can exceed \u22121R); targets never fill better than their level. ~6 months \u2248 one market regime \u2014 treat as directional, not gospel.",
-  "recommendation": {
-    "headline": "Trade the qualified list long-only; hold 30 trading days with the initial ATR stop.",
-    "items": [
-      {
-        "topic": "exit",
-        "text": "Legacy exit diagnostic: hold 30 trading days with the initial stop (+0.58R net/trade vs +0.21R for the S/R target exit)."
-      },
-      {
-        "topic": "gate",
-        "text": "Gate: the confidence floor adds nothing \u2014 dropping it costs +0.01R/trade and adds 7 trades."
-      },
-      {
-        "topic": "gate",
-        "text": "Gate: keep the R:R floor (worth +0.28R/trade under the hold exit)."
-      },
-      {
-        "topic": "gate",
-        "text": "Gate: keep the NEUTRAL exclusion (worth +0.05R/trade under the hold exit)."
-      },
-      {
-        "topic": "cutoff",
-        "text": "Residual-momentum cutoff: 90 has the best per-trade net (+0.23R over 497 setups)."
-      },
-      {
-        "topic": "robustness",
-        "text": "Robustness: expectancy survives removing the top 5% of winners (+0.21R net/trade under the recommended 30d hold) \u2014 the edge is not a handful of outliers."
-      }
-    ],
-    "note": "Derived from this report's numbers on every run \u2014 the advice flips if the data does."
-  },
-  "research_recommendation": {
-    "items": [],
-    "note": "Strategy variants unavailable; re-run the backtest after benchmark data is present."
-  }
-}

reports/fip-breadth-20260718-211440.json

@@ -1,59 +0,0 @@
-{
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-18T21:14:40.170961",
-  "liquid_breadth_top_n": 1500,
-  "liquid_min_price": 5.0,
-  "fingerprint": {
-    "signal": "fip_id",
-    "weeks": 35,
-    "avg_cross_section": 497.7,
-    "mean_ic": -0.045,
-    "ic_t_stat": -2.91,
-    "ic_positive_pct": 25.7,
-    "mean_quintile_spread": -0.0168,
-    "reliable": true,
-    "pass": true,
-    "expected_ic": -0.045,
-    "expected_t": -2.9
-  },
-  "breadth": {
-    "signal": "fip_id",
-    "weeks": 35,
-    "avg_cross_section": 1471.2,
-    "mean_ic": 0.0575,
-    "ic_t_stat": 5.12,
-    "ic_positive_pct": 88.6,
-    "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0199,
-    "reliable": true,
-    "liquid_breadth_top_n": 1500,
-    "liquid_min_price": 5.0
-  },
-  "verdict": {
-    "green": false,
-    "reason": "iron rule not met on liquid-breadth cross-section",
-    "checks": {
-      "mean_ic": 0.0575,
-      "abs_mean_ic_ge_0_03": true,
-      "sign_negative": false,
-      "ic_t_stat": 5.12,
-      "reliable": true,
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 1471.2
-    },
-    "row": {
-      "signal": "fip_id",
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 1471.2,
-      "mean_ic": 0.0575,
-      "ic_t_stat": 5.12,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 88.6,
-      "mean_quintile_spread": 0.0199,
-      "reliable": true,
-      "liquid_breadth_top_n": 1500,
-      "liquid_min_price": 5.0
-    }
-  },
-  "fingerprint_report_path": "reports/fip-breadth-20260718-211440-fingerprint.json",
-  "breadth_report_path": "reports/fip-breadth-20260718-211440-breadth.json",
-  "breadth_tickers": 4650,
-  "breadth_rank_only_tickers": 4144
-}

reports/fip-breadth-diagnostics-20260718-213705.json

@@ -1,100 +0,0 @@
-{
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-18T21:37:04.615484",
-  "research_snapshot": "C:\\Workspace\\signal-platform\\backtest_snapshots\\research.sqlite",
-  "prod_subset_n": 506,
-  "panel_tickers": 4403,
-  "top_n": 1500,
-  "min_price": 5.0,
-  "checks": {
-    "fip_same_week_liquid_1500": {
-      "note": "Replication of main breadth run (same-week $vol mask)",
-      "mean_ic": -0.0168,
-      "ic_t_stat": -1.85,
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 1471.2,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 40.0,
-      "reliable": true
-    },
-    "fip_lagged_membership_1w": {
-      "note": "Liquid top-N ranked on *prior* week's median $vol \u2014 excludes same-week liquidity explosion leak",
-      "mean_ic": -0.0102,
-      "ic_t_stat": -0.93,
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 1471.2,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 40.0,
-      "reliable": true
-    },
-    "fip_tier_1_800": {
-      "note": "Same-week liquid ranks 1\u2013800 (senior liquid tier)",
-      "mean_ic": -0.035,
-      "ic_t_stat": -2.99,
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 791.2,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 25.7,
-      "reliable": true
-    },
-    "fip_tier_801_1500": {
-      "note": "Same-week liquid ranks 801\u20131500 (junior liquid tier)",
-      "mean_ic": 0.0141,
-      "ic_t_stat": 1.25,
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 700.0,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 60.0,
-      "reliable": true
-    },
-    "fip_prod_universe_subset": {
-      "note": "Symbols in prod.sqlite (~S&P-like large-cap book) inside same-week liquid top-N \u2014 compositional control",
-      "mean_ic": -0.0444,
-      "ic_t_stat": -2.88,
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 497.5,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 25.7,
-      "reliable": true
-    },
-    "fip_momentum_conditional_top20pct": {
-      "note": "Among liquid top-N, keep mom_12_1 percentile \u2265 80.0 (paper: ID modulates continuation among winners; gate-relevant)",
-      "mean_ic": -0.0879,
-      "ic_t_stat": -4.58,
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 294.3,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 22.9,
-      "reliable": true
-    },
-    "vol_6m_liquid_1500": {
-      "note": "Context: low-vol anomaly strength on this pool",
-      "mean_ic": -0.0465,
-      "ic_t_stat": -1.3,
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 1471.2,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 37.1,
-      "reliable": true
-    },
-    "mom_12_1_liquid_1500": {
-      "note": "Context: raw momentum on liquid breadth",
-      "mean_ic": 0.0462,
-      "ic_t_stat": 1.91,
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 1471.2,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 65.7,
-      "reliable": true
-    },
-    "mom_12_1_resid_liquid_1500": {
-      "note": "Context: residual momentum on liquid breadth",
-      "mean_ic": 0.0289,
-      "ic_t_stat": 1.33,
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 1471.2,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 60.0,
-      "reliable": true
-    }
-  },
-  "interpretation": {
-    "leak_ruled_out": false,
-    "junior_tier_drives_positive": true,
-    "prod_subset_still_negative": true,
-    "mom_conditional_negative_and_reliable": true,
-    "compositional_flip_story": "If prod subset IC is negative while full liquid-1500 is positive, the sign flip is compositional (bleeders / Nasdaq junk), not a temporal regime change. Unconditional fip pools continuous winners (want neg IC) against continuous losers/bleeders (want pos IC).",
-    "vol_tilt_warning": "vol_6m large negative IC on breadth: high-vol lottery names underperform. Production 80/20 high-vol tilt was validated on S&P-like names; must re-validate before any universe broaden."
-  },
-  "platform_verdict": "ALIVE as breadth-book tilt candidate among momentum winners only \u2014 still needs a book-level experiment; not a production wire-in."
-}

reports/fip-breadth-diagnostics-20260718-213908.json

@@ -1,100 +0,0 @@
-{
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-18T21:39:07.916038",
-  "research_snapshot": "C:\\Workspace\\signal-platform\\backtest_snapshots\\research.sqlite",
-  "prod_subset_n": 506,
-  "panel_tickers": 4403,
-  "top_n": 1500,
-  "min_price": 5.0,
-  "checks": {
-    "fip_same_week_liquid_1500": {
-      "note": "Replication of main breadth run (same-week $vol mask)",
-      "mean_ic": -0.0168,
-      "ic_t_stat": -1.85,
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 1471.2,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 40.0,
-      "reliable": true
-    },
-    "fip_lagged_membership_1w": {
-      "note": "Liquid top-N ranked on *prior* week's median $vol \u2014 excludes same-week liquidity explosion leak",
-      "mean_ic": -0.0102,
-      "ic_t_stat": -0.93,
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 1471.2,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 40.0,
-      "reliable": true
-    },
-    "fip_tier_1_800": {
-      "note": "Same-week liquid ranks 1\u2013800 (senior liquid tier)",
-      "mean_ic": -0.035,
-      "ic_t_stat": -2.99,
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 791.2,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 25.7,
-      "reliable": true
-    },
-    "fip_tier_801_1500": {
-      "note": "Same-week liquid ranks 801\u20131500 (junior liquid tier)",
-      "mean_ic": 0.0141,
-      "ic_t_stat": 1.25,
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 700.0,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 60.0,
-      "reliable": true
-    },
-    "fip_prod_universe_subset": {
-      "note": "Symbols in prod.sqlite (~S&P-like large-cap book) inside same-week liquid top-N \u2014 compositional control",
-      "mean_ic": -0.0444,
-      "ic_t_stat": -2.88,
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 497.5,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 25.7,
-      "reliable": true
-    },
-    "fip_momentum_conditional_top20pct": {
-      "note": "Among liquid top-N, keep mom_12_1 percentile \u2265 80.0 (paper: ID modulates continuation among winners; gate-relevant)",
-      "mean_ic": -0.0879,
-      "ic_t_stat": -4.58,
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 294.3,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 22.9,
-      "reliable": true
-    },
-    "vol_6m_liquid_1500": {
-      "note": "Context: low-vol anomaly strength on this pool",
-      "mean_ic": -0.0465,
-      "ic_t_stat": -1.3,
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 1471.2,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 37.1,
-      "reliable": true
-    },
-    "mom_12_1_liquid_1500": {
-      "note": "Context: raw momentum on liquid breadth",
-      "mean_ic": 0.0462,
-      "ic_t_stat": 1.91,
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 1471.2,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 65.7,
-      "reliable": true
-    },
-    "mom_12_1_resid_liquid_1500": {
-      "note": "Context: residual momentum on liquid breadth",
-      "mean_ic": 0.0289,
-      "ic_t_stat": 1.33,
-      "weeks": 35,
-      "avg_cross_section": 1471.2,
-      "ic_positive_pct": 60.0,
-      "reliable": true
-    }
-  },
-  "interpretation": {
-    "leak_ruled_out": false,
-    "junior_tier_drives_positive": true,
-    "prod_subset_still_negative": true,
-    "mom_conditional_negative_and_reliable": true,
-    "compositional_flip_story": "If prod subset IC is negative while full liquid-1500 is positive, the sign flip is compositional (bleeders / Nasdaq junk), not a temporal regime change. Unconditional fip pools continuous winners (want neg IC) against continuous losers/bleeders (want pos IC).",
-    "vol_tilt_warning": "vol_6m large negative IC on breadth: high-vol lottery names underperform. Production 80/20 high-vol tilt was validated on S&P-like names; must re-validate before any universe broaden."
-  },
-  "platform_verdict": "ALIVE as breadth-book tilt candidate among momentum winners only \u2014 still needs a book-level experiment; not a production wire-in."
-}

scripts/extend_snapshot_universe.py

@@ -10,8 +10,13 @@ Pipeline
 3. Fetch ~5y daily bars from Alpaca for symbols missing (or short) in the copy.
 4. Insert new tickers + OHLCV; mark them in side table ``research_rank_only``
    so the harness can feed signal IC without GTL/candidate replay.
+5. Write a **completion manifest** (``<output>.manifest.json``) with ticker /
+   OHLCV / rank_only counts and finished-at. Breadth runners refuse to start
+   without a matching complete manifest — same class of guard as calendar
+   truncation (see 2026-07-18 21:14 race: orphaned +0.0575 on a partial pool).
 
 Resume-friendly: re-running skips symbols that already have ≥ ``--min-bars``.
+A ``--limit`` smoke run writes ``complete: false`` so breadth mode still refuses.
 
 Example
 -------
@@ -197,12 +202,21 @@ async def _fetch_symbol_bars(
 
 
 async def _main() -> None:
+    # ROOT is already on sys.path; keep the helper import path-local.
+    from research_snapshot_manifest import (  # type: ignore[import-not-found]
+        clear_manifest,
+        write_completion_manifest,
+    )
+
     args = _parse_args()
     source = Path(args.source)
     output = Path(args.output)
     if not source.exists():
         raise SystemExit(f"Source snapshot not found: {source}")
 
+    # Any rebuild/update invalidates prior completion until we finish cleanly.
+    clear_manifest(output)
+
     if args.force_copy or not output.exists():
         output.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
         if output.exists():
@@ -375,12 +389,40 @@ async def _main() -> None:
             text("SELECT COUNT(*) FROM ohlcv_records")
         ).scalar_one()
 
+    # Full planned work only when --limit is unset. Smoke runs stay incomplete
+    # so breadth mode cannot mythologize a 50-symbol toy pool.
+    is_complete = args.limit is None
+    manifest_path = write_completion_manifest(
+        output,
+        complete=is_complete,
+        sources=sources,
+        history_days=int(args.history_days),
+        min_bars=int(args.min_bars),
+        fetch_ok=ok,
+        fetch_fail=fail,
+        limit=args.limit,
+        extra={
+            "prod_symbols_at_start": len(prod_symbols),
+            "pool_size": len(pool),
+            "to_fetch": len(to_fetch),
+        },
+    )
+
     print("Done.")
     print(f"  output: {output}")
     print(f"  tickers: {ticker_n}")
     print(f"  ohlcv rows: {ohlcv_n}")
     print(f"  research_rank_only: {rank_only_n}")
     print(f"  fetched ok/fail: {ok}/{fail}")
+    print(
+        f"  completion manifest: {manifest_path} "
+        f"(complete={is_complete})"
+    )
+    if not is_complete:
+        print(
+            "  NOTE: --limit set → complete=false; breadth runners will refuse "
+            "this snapshot until a full extend finishes."
+        )
 
 
 if __name__ == "__main__":

scripts/research_snapshot_manifest.py

@@ -0,0 +1,172 @@
+"""Completion manifest for research.sqlite — cheap race guard.
+
+The 2026-07-18 21:14 breadth run fired while ``extend_snapshot_universe`` was
+still (or had just been) building the snapshot. Harness and shared-filter
+recomputes agree on *complete* data, so the orphaned +0.0575 was incomplete
+universe, not a code path bug.
+
+Same class of protection as calendar-truncation assertions in the research
+matrix: refuse to read results from a half-built artifact.
+
+Layout
+------
+Sidecar path: ``<snapshot>.manifest.json`` next to the sqlite file
+(e.g. ``backtest_snapshots/research.sqlite.manifest.json``).
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import json
+from datetime import datetime, timezone
+from pathlib import Path
+from typing import Any
+
+from sqlalchemy import create_engine, text
+
+MANIFEST_SCHEMA_VERSION = 1
+
+
+def manifest_path_for(snapshot: Path) -> Path:
+    """Sidecar path for a research snapshot."""
+    return Path(str(snapshot) + ".manifest.json")
+
+
+def _count_snapshot(snapshot: Path) -> dict[str, int]:
+    engine = create_engine(
+        f"sqlite:///{snapshot.resolve().as_posix()}",
+        future=True,
+    )
+    try:
+        with engine.connect() as conn:
+            ticker_n = int(conn.execute(text("SELECT COUNT(*) FROM tickers")).scalar_one())
+            ohlcv_n = int(
+                conn.execute(text("SELECT COUNT(*) FROM ohlcv_records")).scalar_one()
+            )
+            try:
+                rank_only_n = int(
+                    conn.execute(text("SELECT COUNT(*) FROM research_rank_only")).scalar_one()
+                )
+            except Exception:
+                rank_only_n = 0
+    finally:
+        engine.dispose()
+    return {
+        "ticker_count": ticker_n,
+        "ohlcv_row_count": ohlcv_n,
+        "rank_only_count": rank_only_n,
+    }
+
+
+def write_completion_manifest(
+    snapshot: Path,
+    *,
+    complete: bool,
+    sources: dict[str, str] | None = None,
+    history_days: int | None = None,
+    min_bars: int | None = None,
+    fetch_ok: int | None = None,
+    fetch_fail: int | None = None,
+    limit: int | None = None,
+    extra: dict[str, Any] | None = None,
+) -> Path:
+    """Write (or overwrite) the sidecar completion manifest for *snapshot*."""
+    snapshot = Path(snapshot)
+    counts = _count_snapshot(snapshot) if snapshot.exists() else {
+        "ticker_count": 0,
+        "ohlcv_row_count": 0,
+        "rank_only_count": 0,
+    }
+    payload: dict[str, Any] = {
+        "schema_version": MANIFEST_SCHEMA_VERSION,
+        "snapshot": snapshot.name,
+        "snapshot_resolved": str(snapshot.resolve()) if snapshot.exists() else str(snapshot),
+        "complete": bool(complete),
+        "finished_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
+        **counts,
+        "sources": sources or {},
+        "history_days": history_days,
+        "min_bars": min_bars,
+        "fetch_ok": fetch_ok,
+        "fetch_fail": fetch_fail,
+        "limit": limit,
+    }
+    if extra:
+        payload["extra"] = extra
+    path = manifest_path_for(snapshot)
+    path.write_text(json.dumps(payload, indent=2, default=str) + "\n", encoding="utf-8")
+    return path
+
+
+def clear_manifest(snapshot: Path) -> None:
+    """Remove any existing completion manifest (start of a rebuild)."""
+    path = manifest_path_for(Path(snapshot))
+    if path.exists():
+        path.unlink()
+
+
+def load_manifest(snapshot: Path) -> dict[str, Any] | None:
+    path = manifest_path_for(Path(snapshot))
+    if not path.exists():
+        return None
+    return json.loads(path.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
+
+
+def assert_research_snapshot_complete(snapshot: Path) -> dict[str, Any]:
+    """Refuse breadth-mode work unless the extender finished cleanly.
+
+    Raises ``SystemExit`` with a clear message on any failure (missing
+    manifest, incomplete flag, or live counts that no longer match the
+    recorded totals — e.g. a mid-run overwrite of the sqlite file).
+    """
+    snapshot = Path(snapshot)
+    if not snapshot.exists():
+        raise SystemExit(
+            f"Research snapshot missing: {snapshot}\n"
+            "Build it with: python scripts/extend_snapshot_universe.py"
+        )
+
+    path = manifest_path_for(snapshot)
+    if not path.exists():
+        raise SystemExit(
+            f"Research snapshot completion manifest missing: {path}\n"
+            "Refusing breadth run — this is the guard that would have caught "
+            "the 2026-07-18 21:14 race against a half-built research.sqlite.\n"
+            "Re-run extend_snapshot_universe.py to completion (no --limit), "
+            "or for a trusted existing full snapshot:\n"
+            "  python -c \"from pathlib import Path; "
+            "from scripts.research_snapshot_manifest import write_completion_manifest; "
+            f"write_completion_manifest(Path(r'{snapshot}'), complete=True)\""
+        )
+
+    try:
+        manifest = json.loads(path.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
+    except json.JSONDecodeError as exc:
+        raise SystemExit(f"Corrupt research snapshot manifest {path}: {exc}") from exc
+
+    if not manifest.get("complete"):
+        raise SystemExit(
+            f"Research snapshot marked incomplete in {path}\n"
+            f"(finished_at={manifest.get('finished_at')}, limit={manifest.get('limit')}).\n"
+            "Re-run extend_snapshot_universe.py without --limit until Done."
+        )
+
+    live = _count_snapshot(snapshot)
+    mismatches: list[str] = []
+    for key in ("ticker_count", "ohlcv_row_count", "rank_only_count"):
+        recorded = manifest.get(key)
+        if recorded is None:
+            mismatches.append(f"{key}: missing in manifest")
+            continue
+        if int(recorded) != int(live[key]):
+            mismatches.append(
+                f"{key}: manifest={recorded} live={live[key]}"
+            )
+    if mismatches:
+        raise SystemExit(
+            "Research snapshot does not match its completion manifest "
+            f"({path}). Likely a partial rewrite or concurrent extend:\n  - "
+            + "\n  - ".join(mismatches)
+            + "\nRe-run extend_snapshot_universe.py to completion."
+        )
+
+    return {**manifest, "live_counts": live}

scripts/run_fip_breadth_diagnostics.py

@@ -3,9 +3,9 @@
 Uses the same collection + ``_filter_liquid_breadth_week_rich`` as
 ``run_backtest`` signal_eval. No parallel mask implementation.
 
-Reconciles the harness +0.0575 vs prior dual-path −0.017 disagreement by
+Single-sourced liquid-breadth fip diagnostics through harness mask helpers.
-deleting the second mask, dumping membership/pre-post stats, and re-running
+Re-runs unconditional / tier / prod-subset / mom-conditional ICs and context
-mom-conditional IC through the surviving path only.
+signals. Requires a complete research.sqlite completion manifest.
 
 Research branch only. Example:
 
@@ -49,7 +49,12 @@ def _parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace:
     p.add_argument("--min-price", type=float, default=5.0)
     p.add_argument("--workers", type=int, default=max(1, (mp.cpu_count() or 4) - 1))
     p.add_argument("--allow-spawn", action="store_true")
-    p.add_argument("--dump-weeks", type=int, default=5, help="How many weeks to dump membership for")
+    p.add_argument(
+        "--dump-weeks",
+        type=int,
+        default=0,
+        help="Weeks of liquid membership symbol lists to embed (default 0 — keep reports compact)",
+    )
     p.add_argument("--out", default=None)
     p.add_argument("--quiet", action="store_true")
     return p.parse_args()
@@ -173,8 +178,23 @@ def main() -> None:
     args = _parse_args()
     research = Path(args.research_snapshot)
     prod = Path(args.prod_snapshot)
-    if not research.exists():
+
-        raise SystemExit(f"Missing {research}")
+    # Refuse half-built research.sqlite (2026-07-18 21:14 race).
+    scripts_dir = Path(__file__).resolve().parent
+    if str(scripts_dir) not in sys.path:
+        sys.path.insert(0, str(scripts_dir))
+    from research_snapshot_manifest import (  # type: ignore[import-not-found]
+        assert_research_snapshot_complete,
+    )
+
+    manifest = assert_research_snapshot_complete(research)
+    if not args.quiet:
+        print(
+            f"Manifest ok: tickers={manifest.get('ticker_count')} "
+            f"ohlcv={manifest.get('ohlcv_row_count')} "
+            f"finished_at={manifest.get('finished_at')}",
+            flush=True,
+        )
 
     # Force harness liquid-mode collection (same env as breadth run).
     os.environ["BACKTEST_LIQUID_BREADTH"] = str(int(args.top_n))
@@ -503,9 +523,9 @@ def main() -> None:
             ),
             "mom_conditional_negative_and_reliable": mom_alive,
             "orphan_plus_five_sigma": (
-                "Prior report fip-breadth-20260718-211440-breadth.json listed "
+                "Orphaned 21:14 row (+0.0575 / t +5.12) raced a partial "
-                "fip IC +0.0575 / t +5.12. This single-sourced recompute is the "
+                "research.sqlite and was removed from reports/ (Git history only). "
-                "authoritative number; if it disagrees, the +0.0575 row is orphaned."
+                "Harness path and shared filter agree on complete data."
             ),
             "compositional_story": (
                 "fip_id pools continuous winners (neg IC) vs continuous bleeders "
@@ -513,19 +533,36 @@ def main() -> None:
                 "liquid is less negative / positive — composition, not jumpiness premium."
             ),
             "vol_tilt_warning": (
-                "High-vol names underperform on breadth relative to S&P-like books. "
+                "Authoritative liquid vol_6m IC ≈ −0.048 / t ≈ −1.36 — directional "
-                "Re-validate production 80/20 high-vol tilt before any universe broaden."
+                "hypothesis only, not significant. Do not cite the orphaned −0.16 / "
+                "t −6.1. Re-validate production 80/20 high-vol tilt before any "
+                "universe broaden; it is not a settled finding on this pool."
+            ),
+            "breadth_momentum_thesis": (
+                "Residual mom on liquid-1500 is +0.029 / t +1.33 vs fingerprint "
+                "0.055 / t 1.98 on 505 names — more breadth did not strengthen the "
+                "momentum t-stat on this pool. Clean mom edge lives in the large-cap "
+                "universe already traded. A fip tilt presupposes a breadth mom book "
+                "worth tilting; that baseline must be proven first."
             ),
         },
         "platform_verdict": (
-            "Mom-conditional fip ALIVE as book-tilt candidate (needs book sim) — "
+            "Mom-conditional fip ALIVE as book-tilt candidate only — requires a "
-            "not production wire-in. Unconditional fip not green."
+            "pre-registered two-arm breadth book (baseline liquid-1500 mom vs +fip "
+            "tilt) before any gate talk. Unconditional fip not green. Production: none."
             if mom_alive
             else (
                 "fip CLOSED for production: mom-conditional does not clear iron rule "
                 "on single-sourced path. Display card is the resting place."
             )
         ),
+        "research_snapshot_manifest": {
+            "finished_at": manifest.get("finished_at"),
+            "ticker_count": manifest.get("ticker_count"),
+            "ohlcv_row_count": manifest.get("ohlcv_row_count"),
+            "rank_only_count": manifest.get("rank_only_count"),
+            "complete": manifest.get("complete"),
+        },
     }
 
     stamp = datetime.now().strftime("%Y%m%d-%H%M%S")
@@ -533,8 +570,9 @@ def main() -> None:
     out.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
     out.write_text(json.dumps(results, indent=2, default=str), encoding="utf-8")
 
-    # Update research log
+    # Append a machine reconciliation stub next to the JSON only — never clobber
-    _update_md(Path("docs/research/fip-breadth-ic.md"), results, out)
+    # the curated research log at docs/research/fip-breadth-ic.md.
+    _update_md(out.with_suffix(".md"), results, out)
 
     if not args.quiet:
         print("=== Harness fip_id (authoritative) ===")
@@ -560,18 +598,10 @@ def _update_md(path: Path, results: dict, artifact: Path) -> None:
         "",
         "### Problem",
         "",
-        "Two implementations of the liquid-1500 fip IC disagreed on **sign**:",
+        "Machine stub only — curated narrative lives in `docs/research/fip-breadth-ic.md`.",
-        "",
-        "- Harness report `fip-breadth-20260718-211440-breadth.json`: **+0.0575 / t +5.12**",
-        "- Dual-path diagnostics (since deleted): **−0.017 / t −1.9**",
-        "",
-        "A static read cannot decide which is right without single-sourcing the mask.",
-        "",
-        "### Resolution",
         "",
         f"- **Single source:** {results.get('single_source')}",
-        f"- **avg_cross_section semantics:** {results.get('avg_cross_section_semantics')}",
+        f"- Harness vs shared-filter agree: "
-        f"- Harness `_signal_evaluation` vs shared-filter recompute agree: "
         f"**{interp.get('harness_and_shared_filter_agree')}**",
         "",
         "### Authoritative unconditional fip (liquid top-N, post-mask)",
@@ -587,10 +617,6 @@ def _update_md(path: Path, results: dict, artifact: Path) -> None:
         f"| mask_binds_pct | {h.get('mask_binds_pct')} |",
         f"| reliable | {h.get('reliable')} |",
         "",
-        "The **+0.0575 / +5.12** row is **orphaned** if the authoritative recompute "
-        "disagrees; do not cite it. Iron-rule unconditional green still requires "
-        "negative sign and |IC| ≳ 0.03 on this row.",
-        "",
         "### Checks (single-sourced)",
         "",
         "| check | mean_ic | t | weeks | avg N | reliable |",
@@ -626,21 +652,17 @@ def _update_md(path: Path, results: dict, artifact: Path) -> None:
         "",
         results.get("platform_verdict", ""),
         "",
-        "### Vol-tilt warning",
+        "### Vol-tilt / breadth-momentum notes",
         "",
         interp.get("vol_tilt_warning", ""),
         "",
+        interp.get("breadth_momentum_thesis", ""),
+        "",
         f"Artifact: `{artifact.as_posix()}`",
         "",
     ])
-    existing = path.read_text(encoding="utf-8") if path.exists() else ""
+    # Always overwrite the machine stub (never the curated research log).
-    marker = "## Reconciliation"
+    path.write_text("\n".join(lines).lstrip() + "\n", encoding="utf-8")
-    if marker in existing:
-        existing = existing.split(marker)[0].rstrip() + "\n"
-    # Also strip old dual-path diagnostics section if present after reconciliation
-    if "## Follow-up diagnostics" in existing and marker not in path.read_text(encoding="utf-8") if path.exists() else "":
-        pass
-    path.write_text(existing.rstrip() + "\n" + "\n".join(lines), encoding="utf-8")
 
 
 if __name__ == "__main__":

scripts/run_fip_breadth_research.py

@@ -1,8 +1,9 @@
 """Phase B: fip_id IC on liquid-breadth cross-section (local research only).
 
 1. Fingerprint check on the unextended prod snapshot (must ≈ IC −0.045 / t −2.9).
-2. Run signal_eval on research.sqlite with BACKTEST_LIQUID_BREADTH=1500 PIT mask.
+2. Assert research.sqlite has a matching **completion manifest** (race guard).
-3. Write a research report under docs/research/ and reports/.
+3. Run signal_eval on research.sqlite with BACKTEST_LIQUID_BREADTH=1500 PIT mask.
+4. Write a research report under docs/research/ and reports/.
 
 Does not modify production DB, gate, scanner, or schedule.
 
@@ -209,7 +210,9 @@ async def _main() -> None:
     stamp = datetime.now().strftime("%Y%m%d-%H%M%S")
     out_json = Path(args.out) if args.out else Path("reports") / f"fip-breadth-{stamp}.json"
     out_json.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
-    out_md = Path("docs/research") / "fip-breadth-ic.md"
+    # Never clobber the curated research log (docs/research/fip-breadth-ic.md).
+    # Machine summary goes next to the JSON report only.
+    out_md = out_json.with_suffix(".md")
 
     payload: dict = {
         "generated_at": datetime.now().isoformat(),
@@ -257,17 +260,30 @@ async def _main() -> None:
 
     # --- 2) Breadth ---
     if not args.skip_research:
-        if not research.exists():
+        # Refuse half-built research.sqlite (2026-07-18 21:14 race).
-            raise SystemExit(
+        scripts_dir = Path(__file__).resolve().parent
-                f"Research snapshot missing: {research}\n"
+        if str(scripts_dir) not in sys.path:
-                "Build it with: python scripts/extend_snapshot_universe.py"
+            sys.path.insert(0, str(scripts_dir))
-            )
+        from research_snapshot_manifest import (  # type: ignore[import-not-found]
+            assert_research_snapshot_complete,
+        )
+
+        manifest = assert_research_snapshot_complete(research)
+        payload["research_snapshot_manifest"] = {
+            "finished_at": manifest.get("finished_at"),
+            "ticker_count": manifest.get("ticker_count"),
+            "ohlcv_row_count": manifest.get("ohlcv_row_count"),
+            "rank_only_count": manifest.get("rank_only_count"),
+            "complete": manifest.get("complete"),
+        }
         os.environ["BACKTEST_LIQUID_BREADTH"] = str(int(args.liquid_breadth))
         os.environ["BACKTEST_LIQUID_MIN_PRICE"] = str(float(args.min_price))
         if not args.quiet:
             print(
                 f"Breadth run on {research} "
-                f"(top {args.liquid_breadth}, min_price={args.min_price})…"
+                f"(top {args.liquid_breadth}, min_price={args.min_price}; "
+                f"manifest ok tickers={manifest.get('ticker_count')} "
+                f"finished_at={manifest.get('finished_at')})…"
             )
         br_report = await _run_signal_eval(
             research, workers=args.workers, quiet=args.quiet

tests/unit/test_research_snapshot_manifest.py

@@ -0,0 +1,133 @@
+"""Completion-manifest guard for research.sqlite breadth runs."""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import json
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import pytest
+from sqlalchemy import create_engine, text
+
+ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[2]
+SCRIPTS = ROOT / "scripts"
+if str(SCRIPTS) not in sys.path:
+    sys.path.insert(0, str(SCRIPTS))
+
+from research_snapshot_manifest import (  # noqa: E402
+    assert_research_snapshot_complete,
+    clear_manifest,
+    load_manifest,
+    manifest_path_for,
+    write_completion_manifest,
+)
+
+
+def _tiny_research_db(path: Path, *, tickers: int = 3, bars_each: int = 5) -> None:
+    engine = create_engine(f"sqlite:///{path.resolve().as_posix()}", future=True)
+    with engine.begin() as conn:
+        conn.execute(
+            text(
+                "CREATE TABLE tickers ("
+                "id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY, symbol TEXT NOT NULL UNIQUE, "
+                "name TEXT, created_at TEXT)"
+            )
+        )
+        conn.execute(
+            text(
+                "CREATE TABLE ohlcv_records ("
+                "id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY, ticker_id INTEGER, date TEXT, "
+                "open REAL, high REAL, low REAL, close REAL, volume INTEGER, "
+                "created_at TEXT)"
+            )
+        )
+        conn.execute(
+            text(
+                "CREATE TABLE research_rank_only ("
+                "ticker_id INTEGER PRIMARY KEY, symbol TEXT NOT NULL UNIQUE)"
+            )
+        )
+        for i in range(tickers):
+            sym = f"T{i}"
+            conn.execute(
+                text(
+                    "INSERT INTO tickers (id, symbol, name, created_at) "
+                    "VALUES (:id, :sym, NULL, '2026-01-01')"
+                ),
+                {"id": i + 1, "sym": sym},
+            )
+            if i > 0:
+                conn.execute(
+                    text(
+                        "INSERT INTO research_rank_only (ticker_id, symbol) "
+                        "VALUES (:id, :sym)"
+                    ),
+                    {"id": i + 1, "sym": sym},
+                )
+            for d in range(bars_each):
+                conn.execute(
+                    text(
+                        "INSERT INTO ohlcv_records "
+                        "(ticker_id, date, open, high, low, close, volume, created_at) "
+                        "VALUES (:tid, :date, 1,1,1,1,100, '2026-01-01')"
+                    ),
+                    {"tid": i + 1, "date": f"2026-01-{d+1:02d}"},
+                )
+    engine.dispose()
+
+
+def test_write_and_assert_complete(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
+    snap = tmp_path / "research.sqlite"
+    _tiny_research_db(snap)
+    path = write_completion_manifest(snap, complete=True, sources={"t": "unit"})
+    assert path == manifest_path_for(snap)
+    assert path.exists()
+
+    m = assert_research_snapshot_complete(snap)
+    assert m["complete"] is True
+    assert m["ticker_count"] == 3
+    assert m["ohlcv_row_count"] == 15
+    assert m["rank_only_count"] == 2
+    assert m["live_counts"]["ticker_count"] == 3
+
+
+def test_refuse_missing_manifest(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
+    snap = tmp_path / "research.sqlite"
+    _tiny_research_db(snap)
+    with pytest.raises(SystemExit, match="manifest missing"):
+        assert_research_snapshot_complete(snap)
+
+
+def test_refuse_incomplete_flag(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
+    snap = tmp_path / "research.sqlite"
+    _tiny_research_db(snap)
+    write_completion_manifest(snap, complete=False, limit=50)
+    with pytest.raises(SystemExit, match="marked incomplete"):
+        assert_research_snapshot_complete(snap)
+
+
+def test_refuse_count_mismatch(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
+    snap = tmp_path / "research.sqlite"
+    _tiny_research_db(snap)
+    write_completion_manifest(snap, complete=True)
+    # Tamper: change live DB after manifest written
+    engine = create_engine(f"sqlite:///{snap.resolve().as_posix()}", future=True)
+    with engine.begin() as conn:
+        conn.execute(
+            text(
+                "INSERT INTO tickers (id, symbol, name, created_at) "
+                "VALUES (99, 'EXTRA', NULL, '2026-01-01')"
+            )
+        )
+    engine.dispose()
+    with pytest.raises(SystemExit, match="does not match"):
+        assert_research_snapshot_complete(snap)
+
+
+def test_clear_manifest(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
+    snap = tmp_path / "research.sqlite"
+    _tiny_research_db(snap)
+    write_completion_manifest(snap, complete=True)
+    assert load_manifest(snap) is not None
+    clear_manifest(snap)
+    assert load_manifest(snap) is None