research: park Phase B fip breadth; race guard and compact evidence

Log the 21:14 orphan as a snapshot-build race, rewrite the context table to
authoritative ICs only, and soften the vol-tilt warning. Add extender completion
manifest + breadth refuse guard; strip intermediate/orphaned reports; park the
thread (no book sim, no deploy).

scripts/run_fip_breadth_diagnostics.py

@@ -3,9 +3,9 @@
 Uses the same collection + ``_filter_liquid_breadth_week_rich`` as
 ``run_backtest`` signal_eval. No parallel mask implementation.
 
-Reconciles the harness +0.0575 vs prior dual-path −0.017 disagreement by
-deleting the second mask, dumping membership/pre-post stats, and re-running
-mom-conditional IC through the surviving path only.
+Single-sourced liquid-breadth fip diagnostics through harness mask helpers.
+Re-runs unconditional / tier / prod-subset / mom-conditional ICs and context
+signals. Requires a complete research.sqlite completion manifest.
 
 Research branch only. Example:
 
@@ -49,7 +49,12 @@ def _parse_args() -> argparse.Namespace:
     p.add_argument("--min-price", type=float, default=5.0)
     p.add_argument("--workers", type=int, default=max(1, (mp.cpu_count() or 4) - 1))
     p.add_argument("--allow-spawn", action="store_true")
-    p.add_argument("--dump-weeks", type=int, default=5, help="How many weeks to dump membership for")
+    p.add_argument(
+        "--dump-weeks",
+        type=int,
+        default=0,
+        help="Weeks of liquid membership symbol lists to embed (default 0 — keep reports compact)",
+    )
     p.add_argument("--out", default=None)
     p.add_argument("--quiet", action="store_true")
     return p.parse_args()
@@ -173,8 +178,23 @@ def main() -> None:
     args = _parse_args()
     research = Path(args.research_snapshot)
     prod = Path(args.prod_snapshot)
-    if not research.exists():
-        raise SystemExit(f"Missing {research}")
+
+    # Refuse half-built research.sqlite (2026-07-18 21:14 race).
+    scripts_dir = Path(__file__).resolve().parent
+    if str(scripts_dir) not in sys.path:
+        sys.path.insert(0, str(scripts_dir))
+    from research_snapshot_manifest import (  # type: ignore[import-not-found]
+        assert_research_snapshot_complete,
+    )
+
+    manifest = assert_research_snapshot_complete(research)
+    if not args.quiet:
+        print(
+            f"Manifest ok: tickers={manifest.get('ticker_count')} "
+            f"ohlcv={manifest.get('ohlcv_row_count')} "
+            f"finished_at={manifest.get('finished_at')}",
+            flush=True,
+        )
 
     # Force harness liquid-mode collection (same env as breadth run).
     os.environ["BACKTEST_LIQUID_BREADTH"] = str(int(args.top_n))
@@ -503,9 +523,9 @@ def main() -> None:
             ),
             "mom_conditional_negative_and_reliable": mom_alive,
             "orphan_plus_five_sigma": (
-                "Prior report fip-breadth-20260718-211440-breadth.json listed "
-                "fip IC +0.0575 / t +5.12. This single-sourced recompute is the "
-                "authoritative number; if it disagrees, the +0.0575 row is orphaned."
+                "Orphaned 21:14 row (+0.0575 / t +5.12) raced a partial "
+                "research.sqlite and was removed from reports/ (Git history only). "
+                "Harness path and shared filter agree on complete data."
             ),
             "compositional_story": (
                 "fip_id pools continuous winners (neg IC) vs continuous bleeders "
@@ -513,19 +533,36 @@ def main() -> None:
                 "liquid is less negative / positive — composition, not jumpiness premium."
             ),
             "vol_tilt_warning": (
-                "High-vol names underperform on breadth relative to S&P-like books. "
-                "Re-validate production 80/20 high-vol tilt before any universe broaden."
+                "Authoritative liquid vol_6m IC ≈ −0.048 / t ≈ −1.36 — directional "
+                "hypothesis only, not significant. Do not cite the orphaned −0.16 / "
+                "t −6.1. Re-validate production 80/20 high-vol tilt before any "
+                "universe broaden; it is not a settled finding on this pool."
+            ),
+            "breadth_momentum_thesis": (
+                "Residual mom on liquid-1500 is +0.029 / t +1.33 vs fingerprint "
+                "0.055 / t 1.98 on 505 names — more breadth did not strengthen the "
+                "momentum t-stat on this pool. Clean mom edge lives in the large-cap "
+                "universe already traded. A fip tilt presupposes a breadth mom book "
+                "worth tilting; that baseline must be proven first."
             ),
         },
         "platform_verdict": (
-            "Mom-conditional fip ALIVE as book-tilt candidate (needs book sim) — "
-            "not production wire-in. Unconditional fip not green."
+            "Mom-conditional fip ALIVE as book-tilt candidate only — requires a "
+            "pre-registered two-arm breadth book (baseline liquid-1500 mom vs +fip "
+            "tilt) before any gate talk. Unconditional fip not green. Production: none."
             if mom_alive
             else (
                 "fip CLOSED for production: mom-conditional does not clear iron rule "
                 "on single-sourced path. Display card is the resting place."
             )
         ),
+        "research_snapshot_manifest": {
+            "finished_at": manifest.get("finished_at"),
+            "ticker_count": manifest.get("ticker_count"),
+            "ohlcv_row_count": manifest.get("ohlcv_row_count"),
+            "rank_only_count": manifest.get("rank_only_count"),
+            "complete": manifest.get("complete"),
+        },
     }
 
     stamp = datetime.now().strftime("%Y%m%d-%H%M%S")
@@ -533,8 +570,9 @@ def main() -> None:
     out.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
     out.write_text(json.dumps(results, indent=2, default=str), encoding="utf-8")
 
-    # Update research log
-    _update_md(Path("docs/research/fip-breadth-ic.md"), results, out)
+    # Append a machine reconciliation stub next to the JSON only — never clobber
+    # the curated research log at docs/research/fip-breadth-ic.md.
+    _update_md(out.with_suffix(".md"), results, out)
 
     if not args.quiet:
         print("=== Harness fip_id (authoritative) ===")
@@ -560,18 +598,10 @@ def _update_md(path: Path, results: dict, artifact: Path) -> None:
         "",
         "### Problem",
         "",
-        "Two implementations of the liquid-1500 fip IC disagreed on **sign**:",
-        "",
-        "- Harness report `fip-breadth-20260718-211440-breadth.json`: **+0.0575 / t +5.12**",
-        "- Dual-path diagnostics (since deleted): **−0.017 / t −1.9**",
-        "",
-        "A static read cannot decide which is right without single-sourcing the mask.",
-        "",
-        "### Resolution",
+        "Machine stub only — curated narrative lives in `docs/research/fip-breadth-ic.md`.",
         "",
         f"- **Single source:** {results.get('single_source')}",
-        f"- **avg_cross_section semantics:** {results.get('avg_cross_section_semantics')}",
-        f"- Harness `_signal_evaluation` vs shared-filter recompute agree: "
+        f"- Harness vs shared-filter agree: "
         f"**{interp.get('harness_and_shared_filter_agree')}**",
         "",
         "### Authoritative unconditional fip (liquid top-N, post-mask)",
@@ -587,10 +617,6 @@ def _update_md(path: Path, results: dict, artifact: Path) -> None:
         f"| mask_binds_pct | {h.get('mask_binds_pct')} |",
         f"| reliable | {h.get('reliable')} |",
         "",
-        "The **+0.0575 / +5.12** row is **orphaned** if the authoritative recompute "
-        "disagrees; do not cite it. Iron-rule unconditional green still requires "
-        "negative sign and |IC| ≳ 0.03 on this row.",
-        "",
         "### Checks (single-sourced)",
         "",
         "| check | mean_ic | t | weeks | avg N | reliable |",
@@ -626,21 +652,17 @@ def _update_md(path: Path, results: dict, artifact: Path) -> None:
         "",
         results.get("platform_verdict", ""),
         "",
-        "### Vol-tilt warning",
+        "### Vol-tilt / breadth-momentum notes",
         "",
         interp.get("vol_tilt_warning", ""),
         "",
+        interp.get("breadth_momentum_thesis", ""),
+        "",
         f"Artifact: `{artifact.as_posix()}`",
         "",
     ])
-    existing = path.read_text(encoding="utf-8") if path.exists() else ""
-    marker = "## Reconciliation"
-    if marker in existing:
-        existing = existing.split(marker)[0].rstrip() + "\n"
-    # Also strip old dual-path diagnostics section if present after reconciliation
-    if "## Follow-up diagnostics" in existing and marker not in path.read_text(encoding="utf-8") if path.exists() else "":
-        pass
-    path.write_text(existing.rstrip() + "\n" + "\n".join(lines), encoding="utf-8")
+    # Always overwrite the machine stub (never the curated research log).
+    path.write_text("\n".join(lines).lstrip() + "\n", encoding="utf-8")
 
 
 if __name__ == "__main__":