Add trade setup outcome tracking and performance stats

Closes the feedback loop on R:R scanner signals:

- Nightly outcome_evaluator job replays unresolved setups against daily
  OHLCV bars: target_hit / stop_hit / ambiguous (same-bar, counted as
  loss) / expired after OUTCOME_EVALUATION_MAX_BARS (default 30)
- Migration 004: evaluated_at + outcome_date on trade_setups
- GET /trades/performance: hit rate, expectancy (avg R), total R with
  breakdowns by direction, recommended action, and confidence bucket
- New Performance page (stat cards, breakdown tables, Evaluate Now,
  methodology disclosure) wired into sidebar and mobile nav
- 17 new unit tests for evaluation logic and stats aggregation

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

alembic/versions/004_add_outcome_evaluation_fields.py

@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+"""add outcome evaluation fields to trade_setups
+
+Revision ID: 004
+Revises: 003
+Create Date: 2026-06-10 00:00:00.000000
+
+"""
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+
+# revision identifiers, used by Alembic.
+revision: str = "004"
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = "003"
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    op.add_column(
+        "trade_setups",
+        sa.Column("evaluated_at", sa.DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=True),
+    )
+    op.add_column(
+        "trade_setups",
+        sa.Column("outcome_date", sa.Date(), nullable=True),
+    )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_column("trade_setups", "outcome_date")
+    op.drop_column("trade_setups", "evaluated_at")