research: add focused portfolio capacity matrix

This commit is contained in:
2026-08-05 08:28:30 +02:00
parent 07d864cf64
commit 1ace6688dd
12 changed files with 2893 additions and 236 deletions
+5 -79
View File
@@ -29,6 +29,11 @@ ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
if str(ROOT) not in sys.path:
sys.path.insert(0, str(ROOT))
from scripts.research_rankings import ( # noqa: E402
_live_universe_rank_map,
_period_percentiles,
)
POLICY_NAMES = (
"immediate",
"next_session",
@@ -107,85 +112,6 @@ def _default_output_path() -> Path:
return Path("reports") / f"daily-reentry-matrix-{stamp}.json"
def _period_percentiles(
observations: list[dict], value_key: str
) -> dict[tuple[str, str], float]:
"""Production-style percentiles, one deterministic symbol row per period."""
by_period: dict[tuple, list[dict]] = {}
seen: set[tuple[str, str]] = set()
for row in observations:
identity = (str(row["symbol"]), str(row["date"]))
if identity in seen:
raise ValueError(f"Duplicate universe rank observation: {identity}")
seen.add(identity)
if row.get(value_key) is None:
continue
period = tuple(row["ranking_period"])
by_period.setdefault(period, []).append(row)
result: dict[tuple[str, str], float] = {}
for group in by_period.values():
ordered = sorted(
group,
key=lambda row: (float(row[value_key]), str(row["symbol"])),
)
denominator = len(ordered) - 1
for rank, row in enumerate(ordered):
result[(str(row["symbol"]), str(row["date"]))] = round(
rank / denominator * 100.0 if denominator > 0 else 100.0,
2,
)
return result
def _live_universe_rank_map(
observations: list[dict],
benchmark_closes: dict[date, float],
momentum_weight: float,
) -> dict[tuple[str, str], dict[str, float | None]]:
"""Historical equivalent of ``compute_activation_ranks``.
Every ticker contributes at most once per session. Residual momentum starts
only once 252 benchmark closes were point-in-time available; earlier dates
use the same raw-momentum fallback as production.
"""
identities = [(str(row["symbol"]), str(row["date"])) for row in observations]
if len(identities) != len(set(identities)):
raise ValueError("Universe ranking requires one observation per ticker/date")
raw_pct = _period_percentiles(observations, "momentum")
residual_pct = _period_percentiles(observations, "residual_momentum")
vol_pct = _period_percentiles(observations, "vol_6m")
benchmark_ords = sorted(value.toordinal() for value in benchmark_closes)
residual_start_ord = benchmark_ords[251] if len(benchmark_ords) >= 252 else None
ranks: dict[tuple[str, str], dict[str, float | None]] = {}
for row in observations:
identity = (str(row["symbol"]), str(row["date"]))
asof_ord = date.fromisoformat(identity[1]).toordinal()
momentum_pct = (
residual_pct.get(identity)
if residual_start_ord is not None and asof_ord >= residual_start_ord
else raw_pct.get(identity)
)
volatility_pct = vol_pct.get(identity)
strategy_rank = (
round(
momentum_pct * momentum_weight
+ volatility_pct * (1.0 - momentum_weight),
2,
)
if momentum_pct is not None and volatility_pct is not None
else momentum_pct
)
ranks[identity] = {
"momentum_percentile": momentum_pct,
"volatility_percentile": volatility_pct,
"strategy_rank": strategy_rank,
}
return ranks
class PrecomputedDailyEngine:
"""Exact date/symbol lookup over the already-ranked production gate."""