Require aligned action for qualified setups

app/services/backtest_service.py

@@ -54,6 +54,7 @@ from app.services.outcome_service import (
 from app.services.price_service import query_ohlcv
 from app.services.qualification import (
     HIGH_CONVICTION_ACTIONS,
+    _action_direction,
     best_target_probability,
     setup_qualifies,
 )
@@ -917,7 +918,10 @@ def _gate_ablation(candidates: list[dict], activation: dict, threshold: float) -
         return (c["confidence"] or 0.0) >= min_conf
 
     def neutral_ok(c: dict) -> bool:
-        return not exclude_neutral or (c.get("action") or "NEUTRAL") != "NEUTRAL"
+        if not exclude_neutral:
+            return True
+        action_direction = _action_direction(c.get("action"))
+        return action_direction != "neutral" and action_direction == c["direction"]
 
     def tighteners_ok(c: dict) -> bool:
         if require_high and (c.get("action") or "") not in HIGH_CONVICTION_ACTIONS:

app/services/qualification.py

@@ -17,6 +17,16 @@ from typing import Any
 HIGH_CONVICTION_ACTIONS = {"LONG_HIGH", "SHORT_HIGH"}
 
 
+def _action_direction(action: str | None) -> str:
+    if not action or action == "NEUTRAL":
+        return "neutral"
+    if action.startswith("LONG"):
+        return "long"
+    if action.startswith("SHORT"):
+        return "short"
+    return "neutral"
+
+
 def best_target_probability(setup: Any) -> float:
     """Highest probability among a setup's targets, 0 if none."""
     targets = getattr(setup, "targets", None) or []
@@ -78,12 +88,14 @@ def setup_qualifies(setup: Any, config: dict) -> bool:
         momentum_percentile = getattr(setup, "momentum_percentile", None)
         if momentum_percentile is not None and momentum_percentile < min_pct:
             return False
-    # A NEUTRAL recommendation means the engine found no clear directional setup —
-    # not an actionable signal, so by default it doesn't qualify (and can't be a
-    # top pick). ``exclude_neutral`` defaults on; turn it off to also count
-    # no-clear-direction residual momentum leaders.
+    # A setup is actionable only when the live ticker action points in the same
+    # direction. NEUTRAL means no clear signal; an opposite action means the
+    # setup is counter-bias. ``exclude_neutral`` defaults on; callers that omit
+    # it keep legacy floor-only behavior.
     if config.get("exclude_neutral"):
-        if (setup.recommended_action or "NEUTRAL") == "NEUTRAL":
+        action_direction = _action_direction(getattr(setup, "recommended_action", None))
+        setup_direction = (getattr(setup, "direction", "long") or "long").lower()
+        if action_direction == "neutral" or action_direction != setup_direction:
             return False
     if config.get("require_high_conviction"):
         if (setup.recommended_action or "") not in HIGH_CONVICTION_ACTIONS: