Rewrite Regime Monitor as v3: fundamentals off the score, desaturate P3

The LLM-sourced capex/earnings observations carried 12+8 of 100 Warning points,
so both pegged at 100 produced a Warning of 20.0 -- below the event study's 25.3
alarm threshold and still inside the "stable" band. The reading was
arithmetically incapable of changing anything on screen, which is why refreshing
it appeared to do nothing. They are now a qualitative overlay reported beside
the scores rather than diluted into them.

Calibrated against the 408 v2 sessions to 2026-07-24, reproduced offline from
Alpaca + FRED; the harness matched the stored prod distribution exactly before
any parameter was changed.

State:
- P3 used dd_pct * 5, reaching 100 at a 20% drawdown -- the 90th percentile of
  the observed distribution -- so 39/408 sessions sat at exactly 100 with no
  resolution left during the part of a selloff that matters most. Replaced with
  anchored breakpoints keeping headroom past the observed 36% maximum, blended
  2:1 like P1/P2 instead of max(). P3's realized share of State falls from 65%
  to 40%, matching its nominal weight.
- Credit level is now anchors-only. ICE capped FRED's BAMLH0A0HYM2 at a rolling
  3-year window in April 2026, silently turning the 10-year percentile leg into
  a 3-year one that scored 20 points of stress at an OAS of 3.5 -- the level its
  own anchors call "mild". The anchors already encode the long-run distribution.

Warning:
- Added HY OAS 20-session widening (25%). The level is pinned at zero below the
  3.5 anchor; its rate of change is not.
- Divergence tapers to a 0.35 floor instead of a hard price_ret >= 0 gate, which
  zeroed the sensor through every decline: on 2026-07-24 the basket shed 10
  points of participation in 20 sessions and Warning printed exactly 0.
- The event study and the live monitor now share one sensor definition, so they
  cannot silently drift apart.

Bands are per axis (State 20/50/80, Warning 20/40/60) with quadrant dividers at
50/40; v2 Warning never exceeded 64.9 against a shared 60, leaving that half of
the quadrant unreachable. Realized shares: State 73/15/8/3%, Warning 69/20/8/3%.

Snapshots now record credit_history_days and vix_history_days -- the percentile
defect went unnoticed for months because nothing asserted the window the code
claimed.

Cutover: the first run rebuilds 400 sessions automatically; the Event Study job
must be re-run, as its cached report self-invalidates on the methodology check.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

frontend/src/pages/RegimePage.tsx

@@ -21,6 +21,7 @@ import type {
   GoodNewsReaction,
   RegimeBand,
   RegimeConfig,
+  RegimeFundamentalOverlay,
   RegimeFundamentals,
   RegimeFundamentalsUpdate,
   RegimeReading,
@@ -64,6 +65,8 @@ function ScoreGauge({
   const complete = reading?.band != null;
   const style = complete ? BAND_STYLES[reading.band as RegimeBand] : null;
   const position = Math.min(100, Math.max(0, score ?? 0));
+  const bands = reading?.bands;
+  const ticks = bands ? [bands.watch, bands.elevated, bands.breaking] : [30, 60, 80];
   return (
     <div className={`glass border p-6 ${style?.ring ?? 'border-white/[0.06]'}`}>
       <div className="flex flex-wrap items-end justify-between gap-3">
@@ -98,8 +101,15 @@ function ScoreGauge({
               style={{ left: `${position}%` }}
             />
           </div>
-          <div className="mt-1.5 flex justify-between text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-600">
-            <span>0</span><span>30</span><span>60</span><span>80</span><span>100</span>
+          {/* Thresholds come from the reading: the two axes no longer share them. */}
+          <div className="relative mt-1.5 h-4 text-[10px] uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-600">
+            <span className="absolute left-0">0</span>
+            {ticks.map((tick) => (
+              <span key={tick} className="absolute -translate-x-1/2 num" style={{ left: `${tick}%` }}>
+                {tick}
+              </span>
+            ))}
+            <span className="absolute right-0">100</span>
           </div>
         </>
       )}
@@ -108,6 +118,77 @@ function ScoreGauge({
   );
 }
 
+const CAPEX_TONE: Record<CapexState, string> = {
+  raising: 'text-emerald-400',
+  holding: 'text-amber-400',
+  cutting: 'text-red-400',
+  unknown: 'text-gray-500',
+};
+
+function FundamentalOverlayCard({ overlay }: { overlay: RegimeFundamentalOverlay }) {
+  const capex = overlay.capex ?? {};
+  const reaction = overlay.good_news_stock_down;
+  return (
+    <div className="glass border border-white/[0.06] p-5">
+      <div className="flex flex-wrap items-baseline justify-between gap-2">
+        <div className="text-[11px] uppercase tracking-wider text-gray-500">
+          Fundamental overlay · context, not scored
+        </div>
+        <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-2 text-[11px] text-gray-500">
+          {overlay.source && <span>{overlay.source}</span>}
+          {overlay.effective_date && <span>· effective {overlay.effective_date}</span>}
+          {overlay.pending && <Badge label="pending" variant="manual" />}
+          {overlay.stale && <Badge label="stale" variant="manual" />}
+        </div>
+      </div>
+
+      {overlay.pending ? (
+        <p className="mt-3 text-xs leading-relaxed text-amber-400/90">
+          A newer observation was collected but is not effective until {overlay.effective_date ?? 'the next session'}.
+          Observations are never backdated, so the reading below appears from that session onward.
+        </p>
+      ) : (
+        <>
+          <div className="mt-4 grid gap-4 sm:grid-cols-2">
+            <div>
+              <div className="mb-2 flex items-baseline justify-between text-xs">
+                <span className="font-medium text-gray-300">Hyperscaler capex guidance</span>
+                <span className="num text-gray-500">{overlay.capex_stress ?? 'n/a'}</span>
+              </div>
+              <div className="space-y-1">
+                {Object.entries(capex).map(([symbol, state]) => (
+                  <div key={symbol} className="flex items-center justify-between text-xs">
+                    <span className="font-mono text-gray-400">{symbol}</span>
+                    <span className={CAPEX_TONE[state] ?? 'text-gray-500'}>{state}</span>
+                  </div>
+                ))}
+              </div>
+            </div>
+            <div>
+              <div className="mb-2 flex items-baseline justify-between text-xs">
+                <span className="font-medium text-gray-300">Good news, stock down</span>
+                <span className="num text-gray-500">{overlay.earnings_stress ?? 'n/a'}</span>
+              </div>
+              <div className={`text-sm font-medium ${reaction === 'yes' ? 'text-red-400' : reaction === 'no' ? 'text-emerald-400' : 'text-gray-500'}`}>
+                {reaction === 'yes' ? 'Yes — beats sold into' : reaction === 'no' ? 'No — ordinary reactions' : 'Mixed'}
+              </div>
+            </div>
+          </div>
+          {overlay.reasoning && (
+            <p className="mt-4 text-xs leading-relaxed text-gray-400">{overlay.reasoning}</p>
+          )}
+        </>
+      )}
+
+      <p className="mt-4 text-[11px] leading-relaxed text-gray-600">
+        These observations are qualitative, refreshed roughly quarterly, and deliberately excluded from State and
+        Warning. In v2 they carried 20 of 100 Warning points — not enough to cross the study's alarm threshold even
+        when both were pegged — so they are reported here rather than diluted into a daily score.
+      </p>
+    </div>
+  );
+}
+
 function PillarBreakdown({ title, reading }: { title: string; reading: RegimeReading }) {
   return (
     <Disclosure summary={`${title} pillars · ${Math.round(reading.coverage)}% coverage`}>
@@ -235,8 +316,10 @@ function FundamentalsEditor({
   const [capex, setCapex] = useState<Record<string, CapexState>>(() => ({ ...data.capex }));
   const [reaction, setReaction] = useState<GoodNewsReaction>(data.good_news_stock_down);
   const knownCapex = Object.values(capex).filter((state) => state !== 'unknown');
-  const cutting = knownCapex.filter((state) => state === 'cutting').length;
-  const derivedF1 = knownCapex.length >= 3 ? Math.round((cutting / knownCapex.length) * 1000) / 10 : null;
+  // Mirrors _CAPEX_STATE_SCORES: raising 0, holding 50, cutting 100. Holding is
+  // the deceleration case and used to score identically to raising.
+  const capexPoints = knownCapex.reduce((sum, state) => sum + (state === 'cutting' ? 100 : state === 'holding' ? 50 : 0), 0);
+  const derivedF1 = knownCapex.length >= 3 ? Math.round((capexPoints / knownCapex.length) * 10) / 10 : null;
   const derivedF3 = reaction === 'yes' ? 100 : reaction === 'no' ? 0 : null;
   return (
     <div className="space-y-4">
@@ -266,7 +349,7 @@ function FundamentalsEditor({
             </label>
           ))}
         </div>
-        <p className="mt-1.5 text-[11px] text-gray-600">Raising/holding = 0 stress; cutting = 100; at least three known names required.</p>
+        <p className="mt-1.5 text-[11px] text-gray-600">Raising = 0, holding = 50, cutting = 100; at least three known names required. Display only — this does not enter Warning.</p>
       </div>
       <label className="flex items-center justify-between gap-3 text-xs text-gray-400">
         <span>
@@ -369,9 +452,10 @@ export default function RegimePage() {
               label="Warning · deterioration & divergence"
               reading={data.warning}
               divider={data.quadrant_config?.warning_divider}
-              footnote={<>Breadth divergence, SMH/SPY rollover, and point-in-time fundamental observations. Unknown or stale fundamentals reduce coverage; they never default to 50.</>}
+              footnote={<>Breadth divergence, SMH/SPY rollover, and HY credit impulse. Breadth loss counts fully when price masks it and partially when price confirms it. Missing sensors reduce coverage; they never default to 50.</>}
             />
           </div>
+          {data.fundamental_context && <FundamentalOverlayCard overlay={data.fundamental_context} />}
           <p className="text-xs text-gray-600">
             Data quality · oldest market input:{' '}
             {data.data_quality?.oldest_market_input_age_days == null